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I am tired of to the moon posts with zero logic. I dont trade on dreams; i trade on probability.
Everyone is screaming about the
$XPL drop. I am looking at the Expected Value (EV). If you treat crypto like a casino, you lose. If you treat it like a venture capital bet, you might just win.
Here is the raw math on @plasma over the next 12-24 months.
1. THE CURRENT STATE
Price: ~$0.104Market Cap: ~188MTVL: ~$6.8BThe Reality: The token is down ~90% from highs. The sentiment is brutal. But the Total Value Locked (TVL) is still massive. The money hasnt left, even if the token speculators have.
2. THE THREE SCENARIOS
I built these targets based on P/TVL ratios (Price to Total Value Locked) and competitor valuations.
🐻 SCENARIO A: THE BEAR CASE (30% Probability)
Target: $0.08Logic: The TVL gets cut in half ($3B). Inflation from token unlocks keeps hitting the price. The FUD wins.Result: You lose roughly 23% from here. Painful, but not a death blow compared to meme coins going to zero.
⚓ SCENARIO B: THE BASE CASE (50% Probability)
Target: $0.20Logic: The market wakes up. Traders realize a $6B chain shouldn't be valued at $180M. The price stabilizes to a sane valuation.Result: +92% Upside. A solid 2x recovery.
🐂 SCENARIO C: THE BULL CASE (20% Probability)
Target: $0.40+Logic: The ecosystem explodes. Plasma One (the neobank card) gets mass adoption. We see a mania phase in stablecoin usage.Result: +284% Upside. This is where the life changing money sits.
THE EXPECTED VALUE FORMULA
This is how pros decide to bet. We weigh the outcomes by their probability.
EV=(0.30×$0.08)+(0.50×$0.20)+(0.20×$0.40)
Lets do the math:
Bear part: $0.024Base part: $0.10Bull part: $0.08
TOTAL EXPECTED VALUE = $0.204
4. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU
Look at that number. $0.204.
The current price is $0.104.
Mathematically, the fair value based on these probabilities is nearly DOUBLE the current price.
If the EV was lower than the current price, I would sell.Since the EV is higher, the trade has positive expectancy.
MY STRATEGY
I am not "all in." That is reckless. But I am buying here because the math favors the upside. The market is pricing
$XPL as if it is already dead. I am betting it is just sleeping.
Do you agree with my probabilities? Or am I too bullish? Let me know.
#Write2Earn #Plasma #XPL #Analytics #psychology [Link to Profile: @Plasma