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#BTC Market Analysis 9/19

The route I laid out yesterday has already been completed halfway:

There are existing 75,000–76,700 long positions, taking profit in batches at 77,800–78,200. After that, BTC did not pull back; it broke above 78,200 directly and reached a high around 81,700.

Because there was no pullback, new long orders were not triggered here. We can’t turn missing the move into chasing higher prices.

BTC is currently trading around 81,200. In the past 24 hours, the price has risen by about 6%, but OI has actually edged down, indicating this move was mainly driven by spot buying and short covering—not reckless leverage by longs. ETF flows also shifted from consecutive outflows to about $159.5 million net inflows, and the breakout quality looks relatively strong.

The daily chart has already reclaimed EMA7, EMA14, and EMA21, and the 4-hour chart has also held above 80,000—so the larger trend remains bullish.

However, the current price is sitting right on top of the daily Bollinger upper band. The area above at 82,200–82,800 is also resistance, so chasing longs here isn’t cost-effective.

Today’s trading idea: wait for a pullback to go long.

If 79,800–80,300 stabilizes, you can enter long in batches. Place the stop loss below 78,800.

First target: 82,200–82,800. If it breaks through, then look for 84,000–85,000.

If the 4-hour chart closes back below 79,300, it means the breakout is starting to weaken—cancel the long plan and continue to observe.

Being bullish on the trend doesn’t mean you can buy any price. Don’t chase here; wait for the first pullback around 80,000.

⚠️ Personal order-book/screen analysis only, not investment advice. Manage your position size carefully.

#BTC market analysis 9/18

Yesterday I judged that 76500–76900 would face resistance and go short. As a result, BTC broke above 77300 and the stop-loss at 77500 was triggered. I got this trade wrong.

The mistake was that I only saw the moving-average resistance and the rate-hike bearishness, but ignored a more important signal: after the rate hike was implemented, <c-1/> $BTC didn’t even make a new low, which shows that 75000 is indeed being supported by incoming funds. Then it broke above 76700 and the rebound hit a high of 77682.

Now the issue is not the direction, but the position.

1) Current level is not suitable for chasing longs

BTC has already returned to above the daily EMA7, EMA14, and EMA21 during the session. The daily structure is clearly repaired, but today’s daily candle hasn’t closed yet, so it can’t be considered an effective breakout for now.

At the same time, the 4-hour price is sitting right on the upper Bollinger band, and there is pressure in the 77700–78000 area. If you chase a long now, the upside space is limited, while the stop-loss below is hard to place.

2) 75000 is also not suitable to go long again

75000 has been tested multiple times already. Each test has been consuming the buying power. If it drops back down again next time, the risk of support failing will increase significantly.

The truly cost-effective zone is 73000–73800, which is near both the daily EMA200 and supported by the daily structure.

Today there isn’t a good new opportunity to open a position.

For existing low-level long positions, you can take profit in batches around 77800–78200.

Don’t chase if you have no position. Going forward, focus on waiting for a stop-fall/turnaround signal around 73000–73800 before considering another long. If it breaks directly above 78200, wait for a pullback and confirmation—don’t chase a big bullish candle.

Simple summary: Yesterday’s short call was wrong because I ignored the idea of “bearish news not dropping.” Today it has turned stronger, but the price is already at a resistance area. Going long doesn’t mean you should buy right now—be patient and wait until around 73000 for a truly favorable risk/reward.

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Personal analysis of the order book and chart, not investment advice. Pay attention to position/risk management.

#BTC Market Analysis 9/16

If you take a hit, stand up straight; if you’re wrong, admit it. The long position from yesterday was stopped out.

Last night’s move wasn’t a normal pullback—it was news that pushed the shorts in.

Yesterday’s long was stopped out and exited at 76400. After the CLARITY Act at dawn failed to advance, $BTC was quickly dumped from 76800 down to 74909. After the vote, in 45 minutes the price fell by about 1.14%, but OI actually increased by 1.18%, indicating that fresh short positions were indeed concentrated—this wasn’t only long liquidations.

Senate voting result

Now the price is around 75500, right at the first retest of the 4-hour EMA200 at 75280, and it’s also the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart.

Clearly, you can’t chase shorts here. It has better risk-reward to look for longs on the bounce.

1）Today’s trading route

From 75200 to 75600, you can take long positions in small batches. Stop loss: 74300.

First target: 76500-76900. If it breaks above 77200, then look for 78000.

2）Key invalidation levels

As long as the 4-hour body does not close below 74900, this area is still treated as a support rebound after the news-driven selloff.

If there is a valid breakdown below 74900 on the 4-hour timeframe, cancel the longs; don’t add positions. Then look for support again at 73800-73100.

There’s also the FOMC at 2:00 AM tomorrow. Don’t use high leverage tonight.

Simple summary: The bill failure attracted real shorts, but the shorts have already smashed into the first hard support. If 74900 doesn’t break, look for a rebound first—don’t chase shorts at 75500.

⚠️ The above is only my personal chart analysis, not investment advice. Pay attention to position sizing.

#BTC Market Analysis 9/15

Yesterday all the long targets for the orders at 78,300–78,500 and 79,300 were completed, with the high reaching 79,570. For the new longs, the lowest only pulled back to 77,334—just 34 points away from 77,300. The market didn’t even give that extra margin of error, and didn’t offer an opportunity to get in.

Now $BTC is back around 77,900. The larger trend still leans bullish, but this move to 79,570 is mainly about squeezing out positions, not pushing a fresh long aggressively.

During the spike, OI dropped from 106.5K to 104.3K, then after the pullback it fell again to 103.1K. This suggests the shorts are getting stopped out, while longs are also taking profits at higher levels. What’s happening now is more like a leveraged squeeze followed by de-leveraging retracement—not shorts taking back control.

Today only do longs on retracements.

4H EMA21 is at 77,700; daily EMA21 is at 76,970. Today wait for stabilization in the 77,300–77,700 zone to go long. Stop loss: 76,400.

Targets: first look at 79,300–79,600. If it breaks through, then 80,500–81,000. If it shows strength, watch for 82,000.

Don’t chase if price is above 79,500.

Only if 4H holds above 79,600, and OI rises mildly, can it be considered a real breakout. If the 4H close breaks below 76,900, the long setup is canceled.

At 2:00 AM the day after tomorrow, the FOMC rate decision will be released. It’s easy for them to whip prices back and forth to wash leverage in advance—don’t open positions with too large a size.

Simple summary: the trend still looks bullish; buy the 77,300–77,700 zone, don’t chase above 79,500. If it breaks below 76,900, then admit the mistake.

⚠️ The above is only my personal order-book analysis and not investment advice. Manage position sizing carefully.

#BTC Market analysis 9/14

Yesterday, a long position at 76900–77200 has already been entered. This morning it was shaken down to the low of 76350, but the stop-loss at 75800 was not hit. Now it is back around 77800. Hold the positions; the first target is still 78300–78500, just one step away.

$BTC The daily trend has not been broken yet. Around 76000, continuous support has been effective. Today, we continue to look for longs.

However, 77900–78000 is a hard resistance zone in the short term.

Here it also coincides with the 1-hour EMA200. When the rebound reached this area, OI increased by about 2.7%, while price only rose about 0.7%. This indicates that leveraged longs are starting to pile up at the resistance level. Chasing longs directly may easily get you washed out.

Today, only do pullback longs.

For new entries: wait for the pullback to 76900–77300 to stabilize, then take the trade again. Stop-loss: 75900.

Targets: first look at 78300–78500. If it breaks through, then look at 79300. If momentum stays strong, continue to look at 80500.

If there is a valid breakdown on the 4-hour timeframe below 76000, the bullish idea is cancelled.

This coming Thursday at 2:00 AM there will be an FOMC event. Today, when opening positions, don’t make leverage too large.

Simple summary: The larger trend is still relatively bullish, but don’t chase above 78000. It feels better to re-enter on a pullback to 76900–77300.

⚠️ The above is only my personal market analysis, not investment advice. Pay attention to position sizing.

#BTC Market analysis 9/13

The long positions from the 76800-77200 range I mentioned yesterday have already been entered, with the lowest at 77025. The market moved sideways all day; the target wasn’t reached, and the 75600 stop-loss was not hit. The long-position logic continues to be held.

$BTC is currently around 77150. The daily close remains above the EMA21 at 76860. The larger trend is still treated as a bullish pullback.

Funds are waiting for direction

In the past 24 hours, both price and OI have only fluctuated by about 0.1%. The 1-hour Bollinger Bands have compressed to roughly 350 points. It’s not a matter of who wins between longs and shorts; it’s that weekend capital is waiting for someone to make the first move. Next, a breakout with increased volume is likely.

Go long at lower levels today

You can lightly go long within 76900-77200; hold the longs entered yesterday.

Set stop-loss at 75800. After breaking and holding above 77600, look for 78300-78500. If it breaks through, watch for 79300, with a strong target of 80500.

A valid bearish break below 76000 on the 4-hour chart indicates the daily support has failed, and the longs should be exited.

Simple summary: Continue to look for longs. Hold above 76800 and wait for the consolidation to end before testing 78500-79300.

⚠️ The above is only my personal order-book/price action analysis, not investment advice. Pay attention to position sizing and risk management.

#BTC market analysis 9/12

The long positions in the 76000-76500 range that I mentioned yesterday have already been filled.

After the CPI was released, the price precisely dipped to 76000.3 at the lowest point, then surged up to 79859. Both targets—78200-78500 and 79300—were fully achieved, and the 75200 stop loss was not hit.

$BTC is currently around 77200. CPI m/m was 0.4%, and core CPI m/m was 0.3%. The market first sells off the longs, then lifts the price to the shorts. Over the past 24 hours, OI decreased by about 3.44%. The spike upward last night was mainly due to short covering, not strong additional long buying.

The larger trend continues to be treated as a long-side pullback

The daily chart has regained the EMA21 at 76821, indicating that 76000 has valid support. However, the 4-hour chart is still below EMA21 at 77746, so don’t chase the price from here.

Today’s trading plan

If the pullback to 76800-77200 holds and does not break, you can enter longs in small batches.

Stop loss: 75600. First target: 78200-78500. A breakout opens the way to 79300-79800, with a strong target at 80500.

If the 4-hour close falls below 76000, it means the support has failed and the long trade idea should be canceled.

Weekend liquidity is thin, so it’s better to observe more and act less.

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The above is only my personal order-flow analysis, not investment advice. Pay attention to position sizing.

#BTC Market Analysis 9/11

Yesterday, after waiting for 4 hours to stabilize around 79300, no conditions were triggered; then the 77000-77600 range was broken, and the low fell to 76403. This confirmation condition helped us avoid a further leg of decline.

Around $BTC 76780. Although the daily candle closed below EMA21 at 76785, it is still near the lower Bollinger band around 76226. For the larger timeframe, the current action is still temporarily treated as a pullback after an upswing; there’s no rush to flip short.

Today’s main direction remains low-buy (buy on dips). Key support is 76000-76500.

This area is the daily lower Bollinger band and a prior structure zone. After last night’s low of 76403, a rebound/retracement has already appeared, suggesting there are buyers stepping in for the moment.

Today’s trading plan

If the price retraces to 76300-76700 and holds without breaking, you can do small-position, staged long entries.

Place the stop loss at 75200. First target: 78200-78500. After a breakout, look at 79300; for a strong move, target 80500.

If the 4-hour chart effectively breaks below 75500, it means the bids failed—cancel the long idea and do not add to positions.

In the past 24 hours, price has dropped by about 1.61%, but OI has increased by about 1.45%. Based on the structure of the decline, newly added positions are temporarily more tilted toward short-side pressure. As long as 76000-76500 holds, these short positions may even become fuel for a rebound.

Last night, the PPI YoY rose to 5.4%, and inflation concerns are a catalyst for the selloff. Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time there’s also the CPI. You can trade from the left side, but position sizing must be light.

Simple summary: The daily timeframe is still treated as a bullish pullback. Look for left-side low-buys near 76000-76500; if it breaks below 75500, admit the mistake—then first look for 78200-78500 on the rebound.

⚠️ The above is only my personal market analysis, not investment advice. Pay attention to risk and position management.

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#BTC Market Analysis 9/10

Yesterday we emphasized that you must hold above 79300 to go long. The price closed 4 hours later at 79281—just 19 points short. Then it dropped to 77706. The level being so precisely controlled may feel excessive, but that’s how trading works. Missing by 19 points is still considered not having held steady, so long positions naturally wouldn’t enter.

$BTC ’s decline starting from 82282 is still viewed as a pullback after the daily uptrend. The larger trend has not yet turned bearish.

1) 77000-77600 is the main support. It has already tested that area twice. Buyers are still stepping in, but the support is also being consumed. A further retest should not be treated as an immediate bottom-buy.

2) The 4-hour EMA21 and the Bollinger midline are concentrated around 78900-79300. Only if the 4-hour price holds above 79300, and then a pullback to 78900-79100 does not break, should you consider going long. Stop loss: 77400. Targets: 80500, then 81500-82200.

In the past 24 hours, price has fallen by about 0.78%, and OI has dropped by about 1.43%. It looks more like the long side is deleveraging rather than shorts entering aggressively.

Tonight at 20:30, PPI will be released; tomorrow evening at CPI will be released. Don’t chase positions ahead of the data.

The broader trend remains bullish. The pullback hasn’t ended yet. Hold 77000-77600, and only go long after 79300 is reclaimed.

⚠️ For personal order-flow analysis only, not investment advice.

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#BTC Market Analysis 9/9

As mentioned a couple of days ago: if BTC cannot hold above 78600, the next step would be to go to 77000–77600 to find support. Yesterday the low dropped to 77600, which exactly reached the upper edge of the support zone. This route has already been completed ✅

$BTC ’s decline from 82282 is still considered a pullback after the daily uptrend. The bigger trend hasn’t turned bearish, but the 4-hour pullback hasn’t finished yet.

1) 79000–79300 is the current resistance zone—around the 4-hour EMA21 and the Bollinger middle band. If it hasn’t reclaimed and held, don’t buy the dip for now.

2) Today, just wait for the 4-hour close above 79300. If it then pulls back to 78900–79100 without breaking, you can go long. Stop-loss: 77400. Targets: 80500 and 81500–82200.

In the past 24 hours, price dropped by about 0.85%, while OI only decreased by about 0.24%. Neither side shows obvious retreat. Before tomorrow night’s PPI and Friday’s CPI are released, the market is likely to keep ranging.

The bigger trend is still slightly bullish, but the short-term pullback isn’t over. Go long once 79300 is firmly held; if it can’t hold, keep waiting.

⚠️ For personal order-book/market analysis only, not investment advice.

#BTC Market Analysis 9/8

After longs were triggered at 79,500–79,800 yesterday, the lowest price dropped to 78,636. There was no stop-loss, but the long trade did not perform well because the target was not reached.

$BTC ’s sell-off from 82,282 is still regarded as a pullback after an upswing on the daily chart. The overall trend has not turned bearish, but the pullback is not finished yet.

1) The 4-hour candles have closed consecutively below the EMA21. 79,500–79,650 has become short-term resistance. Don’t rush to go long unless price reclaims that level and holds.

2) The 78,600 support has been tested multiple times. If price falls further, it is likely to break. After a break, look at 78,000, and then further at 77,000–77,500.

Today, the main wait is for the 4-hour chart to regain 79,650. A pullback to 79,300–79,500 that does not break can be used to go long. Stop-loss: 78,500. Targets: 80,500 and 81,500. In stronger momentum, look at 82,200.

The broader trend is still biased bullish, but the short-term pullback hasn’t ended. Don’t chase a bottom here—go long only after 79,650 is firmly reclaimed.

⚠️ This is only personal order-book analysis, not investment advice.

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