#BTC Market Analysis 9/15
Yesterday all the long targets for the orders at 78,300–78,500 and 79,300 were completed, with the high reaching 79,570. For the new longs, the lowest only pulled back to 77,334—just 34 points away from 77,300. The market didn’t even give that extra margin of error, and didn’t offer an opportunity to get in.
Now $BTC is back around 77,900. The larger trend still leans bullish, but this move to 79,570 is mainly about squeezing out positions, not pushing a fresh long aggressively.
During the spike, OI dropped from 106.5K to 104.3K, then after the pullback it fell again to 103.1K. This suggests the shorts are getting stopped out, while longs are also taking profits at higher levels. What’s happening now is more like a leveraged squeeze followed by de-leveraging retracement—not shorts taking back control.
Today only do longs on retracements.
4H EMA21 is at 77,700; daily EMA21 is at 76,970. Today wait for stabilization in the 77,300–77,700 zone to go long. Stop loss: 76,400.
Targets: first look at 79,300–79,600. If it breaks through, then 80,500–81,000. If it shows strength, watch for 82,000.
Don’t chase if price is above 79,500.
Only if 4H holds above 79,600, and OI rises mildly, can it be considered a real breakout. If the 4H close breaks below 76,900, the long setup is canceled.
At 2:00 AM the day after tomorrow, the FOMC rate decision will be released. It’s easy for them to whip prices back and forth to wash leverage in advance—don’t open positions with too large a size.
Simple summary: the trend still looks bullish; buy the 77,300–77,700 zone, don’t chase above 79,500. If it breaks below 76,900, then admit the mistake.
⚠️ The above is only my personal order-book analysis and not investment advice. Manage position sizing carefully.
Yesterday all the long targets for the orders at 78,300–78,500 and 79,300 were completed, with the high reaching 79,570. For the new longs, the lowest only pulled back to 77,334—just 34 points away from 77,300. The market didn’t even give that extra margin of error, and didn’t offer an opportunity to get in.
Now $BTC is back around 77,900. The larger trend still leans bullish, but this move to 79,570 is mainly about squeezing out positions, not pushing a fresh long aggressively.
During the spike, OI dropped from 106.5K to 104.3K, then after the pullback it fell again to 103.1K. This suggests the shorts are getting stopped out, while longs are also taking profits at higher levels. What’s happening now is more like a leveraged squeeze followed by de-leveraging retracement—not shorts taking back control.
Today only do longs on retracements.
4H EMA21 is at 77,700; daily EMA21 is at 76,970. Today wait for stabilization in the 77,300–77,700 zone to go long. Stop loss: 76,400.
Targets: first look at 79,300–79,600. If it breaks through, then 80,500–81,000. If it shows strength, watch for 82,000.
Don’t chase if price is above 79,500.
Only if 4H holds above 79,600, and OI rises mildly, can it be considered a real breakout. If the 4H close breaks below 76,900, the long setup is canceled.
At 2:00 AM the day after tomorrow, the FOMC rate decision will be released. It’s easy for them to whip prices back and forth to wash leverage in advance—don’t open positions with too large a size.
Simple summary: the trend still looks bullish; buy the 77,300–77,700 zone, don’t chase above 79,500. If it breaks below 76,900, then admit the mistake.
⚠️ The above is only my personal order-book analysis and not investment advice. Manage position sizing carefully.
