#BTC market analysis 9/18
Yesterday I judged that 76500–76900 would face resistance and go short. As a result, BTC broke above 77300 and the stop-loss at 77500 was triggered. I got this trade wrong.
The mistake was that I only saw the moving-average resistance and the rate-hike bearishness, but ignored a more important signal: after the rate hike was implemented, <c-1/> $BTC didn’t even make a new low, which shows that 75000 is indeed being supported by incoming funds. Then it broke above 76700 and the rebound hit a high of 77682.
Now the issue is not the direction, but the position.
1) Current level is not suitable for chasing longs
BTC has already returned to above the daily EMA7, EMA14, and EMA21 during the session. The daily structure is clearly repaired, but today’s daily candle hasn’t closed yet, so it can’t be considered an effective breakout for now.
At the same time, the 4-hour price is sitting right on the upper Bollinger band, and there is pressure in the 77700–78000 area. If you chase a long now, the upside space is limited, while the stop-loss below is hard to place.
2) 75000 is also not suitable to go long again
75000 has been tested multiple times already. Each test has been consuming the buying power. If it drops back down again next time, the risk of support failing will increase significantly.
The truly cost-effective zone is 73000–73800, which is near both the daily EMA200 and supported by the daily structure.
Today there isn’t a good new opportunity to open a position.
For existing low-level long positions, you can take profit in batches around 77800–78200.
Don’t chase if you have no position. Going forward, focus on waiting for a stop-fall/turnaround signal around 73000–73800 before considering another long. If it breaks directly above 78200, wait for a pullback and confirmation—don’t chase a big bullish candle.
Simple summary: Yesterday’s short call was wrong because I ignored the idea of “bearish news not dropping.” Today it has turned stronger, but the price is already at a resistance area. Going long doesn’t mean you should buy right now—be patient and wait until around 73000 for a truly favorable risk/reward.
⚠️
Personal analysis of the order book and chart, not investment advice. Pay attention to position/risk management.
Yesterday I judged that 76500–76900 would face resistance and go short. As a result, BTC broke above 77300 and the stop-loss at 77500 was triggered. I got this trade wrong.
The mistake was that I only saw the moving-average resistance and the rate-hike bearishness, but ignored a more important signal: after the rate hike was implemented, <c-1/> $BTC didn’t even make a new low, which shows that 75000 is indeed being supported by incoming funds. Then it broke above 76700 and the rebound hit a high of 77682.
Now the issue is not the direction, but the position.
1) Current level is not suitable for chasing longs
BTC has already returned to above the daily EMA7, EMA14, and EMA21 during the session. The daily structure is clearly repaired, but today’s daily candle hasn’t closed yet, so it can’t be considered an effective breakout for now.
At the same time, the 4-hour price is sitting right on the upper Bollinger band, and there is pressure in the 77700–78000 area. If you chase a long now, the upside space is limited, while the stop-loss below is hard to place.
2) 75000 is also not suitable to go long again
75000 has been tested multiple times already. Each test has been consuming the buying power. If it drops back down again next time, the risk of support failing will increase significantly.
The truly cost-effective zone is 73000–73800, which is near both the daily EMA200 and supported by the daily structure.
Today there isn’t a good new opportunity to open a position.
For existing low-level long positions, you can take profit in batches around 77800–78200.
Don’t chase if you have no position. Going forward, focus on waiting for a stop-fall/turnaround signal around 73000–73800 before considering another long. If it breaks directly above 78200, wait for a pullback and confirmation—don’t chase a big bullish candle.
Simple summary: Yesterday’s short call was wrong because I ignored the idea of “bearish news not dropping.” Today it has turned stronger, but the price is already at a resistance area. Going long doesn’t mean you should buy right now—be patient and wait until around 73000 for a truly favorable risk/reward.
⚠️
Personal analysis of the order book and chart, not investment advice. Pay attention to position/risk management.
