老腊肉-kevin

Recently, U.S. stocks have been highly volatile
unlike Bitcoin, which has recently been in a one-way downward trend
Stocks like Nvidia, SOXL, and KORU have all been fluctuating sharply
Some are high-confidence opportunities
while others are traps or attempts to lure traders into short positions
Remember to follow me, and let's trade high-confidence opportunities in U.S. stocks together #英伟达正物色新CEO，谁会接替黄仁勋？

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How should investors in Korean memory stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares handle the open?

On Friday, the Nasdaq—not the Dow—took the hardest hit among U.S. indexes. The Dow even gained 0.10%, while the Nasdaq slumped 0.91%, with tech stocks leading the declines, down 1.70%.

What does this tell us? The market isn’t simply “falling”—it’s “changing tables”: money is getting up from the AI table and shifting over to consumer staples and energy.

The aftershocks of Nvidia’s CEO resignation haven’t died down, and HSBC has gone straight to a “Hold” rating. Memory chip stocks are caught in the fallout.

It’s even livelier across Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s KOSPI rose 4.56% for the week, but SK Hynix dragged it down 3% on Friday alone. The Hang Seng Index fell 3.45% for the week, with the Hang Seng Tech Index squeezed by volatility in international tech stocks and U.S. interest rates. The Shanghai Composite was down 0.41% for the week, making it look the most resilient, but the correlation between the ChiNext and Korean and Japanese chip stocks is as high as 0.91. Don’t assume it can escape unscathed.

The real weekend risk isn’t the stock market—it’s interest rates.

On Friday morning, Boston Fed President Collins was still saying that “the direction of monetary policy is higher, and additional tightening will come soon.” Waller had already put a “50-basis-point rate hike in December” on the table, and the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike in December has climbed to 87%.

Next week brings a triple whammy: Fed meeting minutes, retail sales data, and Nvidia earnings. If any of them surprise, Korean, Hong Kong, and A-share markets will have to digest U.S. market sentiment first when they open.

As for what to do: Don’t chase a tech rebound at Monday’s open. Lean defensive, and first see how Korean stocks open.

If the KOSPI opens down more than 1% and SK Hynix continues to lead the declines, the Hang Seng Tech Index will likely follow. Don’t rush to buy the dip in A-share tech stocks either; wait for the first wave of panic selling to ease before looking for signs of support.

What’s really worth watching, instead, are low-level defensive plays in A-shares that are decoupled from the AI narrative, along with the direction of northbound funds during the first half hour of trading. If northbound funds don’t sell heavily, A-shares may “open lower and form a base” rather than “open lower and see a panic sell-off.”$KORU $ZHONGJI $UNITREE

A new BTC low is just around the corner, and longtime viewers in the livestream have made a killing. Let’s talk about the market tonight—remember to set a reminder for the livestream!

Bears continue to exert pressure

#加密市场大幅回调，多名巨鲸遭遇清算 On-chain data has laid bare this downturn: BTC slid all the way from $80,000 to $63,000, and ETH had it even worse, dipping to $1,731.

This isn't some whale dumping on the market—it's leverage lining up to jump out the window: $1.2 billion liquidated on Thursday, $1.6 billion on Friday, and another $1.2 billion overnight. More than 90% of those positions were longs.

One guy put up $69.21 million in late August and opened $493 million worth of BTC and ETH long positions. By November 12, they had all been liquidated, leaving just $620,000 in his account. Turning $69.21 million into $620,000—is this trading, or just donating a year-end bonus to the liquidation engine?

The ETFs are seeing outflows too, with $1.282 billion in net outflows for the week, while miners are still sending coins to exchanges. With three pipes draining at once, you ask where the turnaround is? It won't come until that leverage is completely wiped out.

No buying the dip today; the bias is bearish. Wait for a rebound. In a cascade of liquidations like this, you don't “guess” where the bottom is—you “wait” for it.

If BTC rebounds to around $67,000–$68,000 and can't break higher, try a small short position, with a stop-loss above $69,000. If you're wrong, accept it; if you're right, let the profits run. ETH is correlated with BTC, so consider it only if it rebounds to around $1,850 and can't break higher. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Goldman Sachs’ latest forecast: Is the market headed for a broad downturn?

Goldman Sachs is telling you the AI party is over, while also saying rate hikes will continue.

Break it down and there are two blows.
The first targets AI: Goldman says AI investment’s share of GDP will peak in early 2027, while S&P 500 earnings growth will be cut in half, from 36% this year to 11%.

Capital spending growth among tech giants will fall from 96% to 44%. The “pick-and-shovel” sellers—chipmakers and server companies—will be hit first, with information technology earnings growth slashed from nearly 90% to 45%.

Put simply, the AI story isn’t dead, but the words “growth is no longer accelerating” are enough to send valuations to their knees.

The second blow targets interest rates: October CPI came in above expectations for the third month in a row. Goldman has now added a third rate hike, in March 2027, to its forecast, putting the peak rate at 3.25% to 3.5% and pushing rate cuts back to the end of 2027. Money will stay expensive, and that’s exactly what high-valuation AI assets fear most.

For now, don’t chase AI hardware; the outlook favors defensive positions. Cloud giants trading below 20 times earnings are actually more resilient than the pick-and-shovel sellers. The only option is to short them at elevated levels after a rebound. If you want to short, keep an eye on the chip and server companies whose earnings growth is being cut the most. $SOXL $KORU $SNDK #加息预期仍强，FOMC纪要会否再添鹰派信号？

Why did Bitcoin and Ethereum take such a big hit over the weekend?
The worst part of Bitcoin and Ethereum’s weekend plunge wasn’t the size of the drop—it was that the liquidation lists were almost entirely made up of long positions.

Bitcoin fell 9% in 24 hours, while Ethereum did even worse, plunging 11% straight to 1715. Nearly $1.9 billion in positions were liquidated: $684 million in Bitcoin and $466 million in Ethereum. Almost all of those liquidations were long positions.

Why did it crash specifically over the weekend? In a nutshell: the institutional big shots don’t work weekends, and the order book is as thin as paper. One somewhat large sell order can smash through the price, and once automated liquidations kick in, longs liquidate longs in a cascading stampede.

Then there were several other man-made factors.
AI and semiconductor stocks had already taken a hit, and Asian retail investors faced margin calls, leaving them no choice but to sell crypto to cover their stock positions. Anthropic’s IPO is just around the corner, and some people sold crypto early to scrape together money for subscriptions.

Once the funds from that $6.3 billion theft were recovered, some people immediately converted them into stablecoins and ran. Meanwhile, expectations for Fed rate cuts are still cooling, and there was already nobody willing to buy risk assets.

For intraday trading: don’t buy the dip. Ethereum at 1715 isn’t “cheap”—it’s weak, with not even a decent rebound in sight.

Today, there’s only one thing to do intraday: wait for Bitcoin to rebound into the 63000 to 6400 range. If it can’t break higher, go short in the same direction; for Ethereum, watch resistance around 1750 to 1770. Don’t fall in love with weekend wicks. They’re there to skewer the bulls, not to give you a warm hug. $BTC $ETH $SOL #加密美股齐跌，下轮反弹的驱动力在哪？ #比特币活跃供应盈利占比跌破45% #加息预期仍强，FOMC纪要会否再添鹰派信号？

Bad news hits U.S. stocks—still falling after hours?

Obviously. The market isn’t worried about Nvidia dropping 1%; it’s worried that nobody else dares to splash cash around as freely as Jensen Huang.

Take a look at the after-hours data: leveraged ETFs are even more rattled than the underlying stocks:
SOXL fell 4.53% after hours. Cerebras had just soared 11% during the day, but still got pushed down 2.50% after hours. AMD fell 2.41% after hours, while Nvidia itself was down 1.13%. The gains from the daytime rebound were completely wiped out after hours.

There are two reasons: one macro, one micro.
On Friday, Boston Fed President Collins struck a hawkish note again, saying monetary policy may need to be tightened to cool prices.
The other reason hits closer to home: after Jensen Huang’s resignation, CFO Colette Kress has stepped in temporarily. Wall Street is betting that the first thing she’ll do is tighten Nvidia’s guarantees and financing for the AI ecosystem. Put simply, the market isn’t trading on “AI is over”; it’s trading on “from now on, nobody will dare hand customers money to buy chips as recklessly as Jensen did.”

My stance on what to do is straightforward: I wouldn’t buy the dip at these after-hours levels. If SOXL can’t close back above 63 intraday, keep holding the short position. First take-profit target is around 50.$SOXL $NVDA #英伟达正物色新CEO，谁会接替黄仁勋？ $KORU

The market's looking pretty tense.
Is ake getting ready to dump,
or planning to keep pumping?
This thing is absolutely wild.
$AKE

Continue preparing the short order.

Who do you think the frontrunner will be among these candidates, or could Lao Huang come back?

#英伟达正物色新ceo，谁会接替黄仁勋？ Who will succeed Jensen Huang if he leaves? Who will turn off the AI money tap?

After watching the market for a week, Nvidia fell another 2%, down 13% for the week. That makes six straight weeks of losses, with $573 billion wiped off its market cap, sending it below $4 trillion.

When the stock opened down 14% on Thursday, retail investors rushed in during the first half hour, buying the dip with $111 million—40 times the usual amount. Looking at that intraday chart, I had one thought: these people aren’t betting on chips. They’re betting that “Jensen will be back.”

But the truly critical issue isn’t the stock price. It’s financing.

For years, Nvidia has done far more than just sell chips. It lends money to customers to buy its own chips, and puts up guarantees, buybacks, and equity. The scale exceeds $500 billion, and Jensen is the one who calls the shots.

Now he’s gone, and CFO Colette Kress is stepping in on an interim basis. She’s the one who once slashed $250 billion in data-center guarantees by more than half.

What is Wall Street afraid of? That she’ll tighten the taps as soon as she takes over. Even a small turn of the valve could pull $50 billion out of the AI ecosystem, leaving emerging cloud providers first to run out of air.

So, will AI collapse?
Chips will still get made, orders will still be delivered. But once that “faith” is gone, valuations will be the first to collapse.

Who could succeed him? Kress is only interim. Co-founder Malachowsky is a veteran. Lisa Su’s name keeps getting floated, and Trump has even called for Cook to take over.

Here’s my question: do you think Kress will keep playing benefactor to steady the ship, or cut the guarantees first to protect her own balance sheet?$NVDA $SOXL $KORU

Is Lao Huang’s announcement that he’s leaving a strategic retreat?

Musk leads the push to bring Huang back—did Nvidia’s GPU have a bug?

Nvidia opened down 14% on Thursday and closed down just 4.3%. Retail investors piled in with $111 million in half an hour, the highest figure since 2017.

I watched the order book for three seconds, and only one thought crossed my mind: Were these people buying the dip, or paying for Huang’s affair?

Musk jumped into the fray too, publicly saying he’d sign a petition to bring Huang back. 97% of employees joined in, chanting, “We need him.”

Silicon Valley has started citing the playbooks of Jobs and Kalanick, basically saying, “You can’t just toss out a founder.”

Honestly, I covered my short position too early. Now I’m sitting in front of my screen like a clown who got squeezed.

The fundamentals haven’t broken, and AI isn’t cooling off, but one CEO’s personal issues dragged the entire chip sector down by more than ten points—this market’s pricing logic makes even less sense than my ex-girlfriend’s moods.

So here’s the question: If Huang really comes back next week, are you chasing the rally, or do you think this rebound is just a dead-cat bounce?$NVDA $SOXL $SNDK

On SpaceX's 15th test flight, the Super Heavy booster landed at sea, and the midair catch attempt was canceled.

U.S. Stock Market Analysis: The Rate-Hike Sword Is Raised Again—Is Money Quietly Moving Elsewhere?

U.S. stocks looked calm on the surface Friday, but there was plenty of turmoil underneath. The Dow rose a modest 0.1%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.91% and the S&P 500 dropped 0.4%. In a nutshell: the same “rate-hike sword” came down, and some felt the pain while others seized the chance to pick up bargains.

U.S. October PPI rose 6.5% year over year, remaining uncomfortably high and pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to 5.15%. The higher interest rates go, the harder it is for tech stocks whose valuations depend on “stories about the future.” Nvidia took another hit amid turmoil over its CEO’s resignation, falling about 13% for the week. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 3.4%, and AMD tumbled more than 8% in a single day.

But the money didn’t leave—it just changed seats. Coca-Cola, Eli Lilly, Procter & Gamble, and Apple, which has consistently stayed away from AI, all closed at record highs. Investors are saying: “If you can make steady money without relying on AI, I’ll take shelter there for now.”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell below 70,000, and gold plunged nearly 5% for the week, as investors collectively cut their exposure to high-risk assets.

Nvidia’s earnings report next week will be the first switch determining whether the AI camp can get the party going again. $BTC $SOXL $NVDA

U.S. Stock Market Briefing: Nvidia’s Six-Session Losing Streak, While Apple Quietly Hits a New High?

U.S. stocks did their own thing last night. The Dow edged up 0.10%, the Nasdaq fell 0.91%, and the S&P 500 dropped 0.40%—tech stocks were sharply divided.

AI chip leader Nvidia closed down 2.01%. With $58.7 billion in trading volume, it remained the market’s most actively traded stock. It suffered a brutal six-session losing streak for the week, wiping $573 billion off its market cap. The immediate trigger was Jensen Huang’s sudden resignation as CEO, leaving investors without a clear captain at the helm. They rushed for the exits first.

But Elon Musk publicly called for Huang to return as CEO, so there may be more twists in this leadership drama. The sell-off dragged down the chip sector: AMD fell more than 8%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged.

Meanwhile, Apple bucked the trend, gaining 0.39% to hit a new all-time high, with $13.9 billion in trading volume. It became a “safe harbor” for big money seeking shelter from AI volatility. Meta also rose 2.90%, while Tesla rebounded notably over the week on merger expectations.

On the macro front, Fed officials struck a hawkish tone again, but PPI came in slightly below expectations, easing rate-hike anxiety a little.

High-flying AI stocks are digesting their valuations, as money quietly rotates into big companies backed by solid earnings. Until the Nvidia CEO drama plays out, chip stocks are likely to remain volatile—but Apple’s new high has already cast its vote for the market.$SOXL $NVDA $QQQ #美国PPI年率6.5%，低于预期或缓解BTC压力

Most U.S. cloud computing stocks fell, with Nebius down another 10%, IREN down 7%, and Hut 8 and CoreWeave down 5%.