老腊肉-kevin

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#美国8月职位空缺降至五个月低点 QNT After accelerating to the top: go long or go short?
First, the conclusion: short-term bias is bearish, but don’t get carried away.
After the TCH cooperation news came out, QNT surged from 60 to 373—more than tripling in a week. The issue is that this rally didn’t bring any real token demand: banks don’t need to buy QNT just to use this network, and the news-driven fuel has mostly burned out.
On-chain signals are very straightforward. During the run-up, two dormant whales that had been idle for over 3 years moved $9.93 million worth of QNT to exchanges. The founder-linked wallet also moved $6.97 million after 7 years. The whales are distributing, retail is the bag-holder—this script is obvious.
Technically, RSI hit above 82, extremely overbought. $227 is the key level; if it breaks down, look to $165 and even $115.
My plan: on a rebound into the 260–280 range, open a small short position. Set the stop-loss above 300. For the downside, first watch 227.$QNT

#股票财报季 US stock market outlook: long-end rates blew up; tech stocks held up hard. Tonight’s PCE is the final piece of the puzzle
At Tuesday’s close, the three major indexes looked calm on the surface, but turbulence was building underneath. The S&P 500 fell 0.17%, the Dow dropped 0.26%, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.21% against the tide. Optical communications and semiconductors propped up the tape—LITE jumped more than 5%, while Corning and MKS Instruments rose more than 4%. But the yield on the 30-year US Treasuries surged to 5.62%, the highest level since 2002.
On the macro front, there are three things—each more explosive than the last.
Williams held back, saying “no rush,” and the odds of a rate hike in October slipped from 70% down to 51%. But Barr immediately sang the opposite tune, saying the path back to 2% inflation is off course. The Fed’s own people are fighting among themselves first. Long-end yields are having none of it—Paramount issued $32 billion in bonds, intensifying supply pressure, and big buyers collectively vanished.
On oil, Qatar mediated + Saudi pipeline restoration, and Brent slid straight through 103. But spot Brent is still hovering around 120 for the moment, and the gap between futures and spot is wildly out of sync.
Tonight at 20:30, the PCE report—core expectations of 3.3% are unchanged. If the data come in even 0.3% above, bets on an October rate hike will rebound right away; long-end yields will surge again, and these little gains in tech stocks will all have to be given back. $CL $SOXL $KORU

#美国8月职位空缺降至五个月低点 US stock closing summary: Meta stubbornly holds up the market, Apple lags behind, and tonight’s PCE is the real bomb
Tuesday’s U.S. stocks moved in a rather tangled way. The leading names by trading value saw mixed gains and losses. Meta notched a single bullish candle, up 3.24%; SpaceX added another 2.59% as it rode the momentum of its Starship launch into orbit. Broadcom and Micron also managed to hold steady. But Apple fell 2.66%, Nvidia slipped 0.72%, and Tesla dropped 1.29%—hard dragging the three major indexes.
Where did the money go among the top movers?
Meta: $738.79, $16.9B in volume; OpenAI’s Dots rolled out to directly stir up sentiment. Micron: $1,065, up 1.05%, $20.6B in volume; Wednesday’s after-hours earnings report is the main event. SpaceX: $149, $11.8B in volume; two Wall Street investment banks issued buy ratings in sync. Apple: $329, down 2.66%, $12.5B in volume; the new CEO’s reform plan sparked the market’s “feet voting.”
Don’t sleep too soundly tonight.
20:30 PCE data hits the tape. Core inflation expectations are stuck around 3.3% and won’t come down. On the consumption side, the forecast for growth is 0.8%, much higher than last month. Inside the Fed, people are already arguing: Williams says it’s not urgent, while Baaⅼ says more hikes are still needed. If the data beats expectations, rate-hike bets for October will immediately jump higher. $MU $SPCX $SOXL

Tonight’s PCE—are we handing the Fed a blade or a step?
Brothers, at 20:30 tonight, it basically comes down to one thing: whether the core PCE at 3.3% moves.
The expectations are laid out: both month-over-month for headline and core are 0.3%, with year-over-year at 3.7% and 3.3% respectively. What does that mean? Inflation is basically stuck in place and still nowhere near 2%. If you’re the Fed, do you dare to press the brake?
Consumption is even more troublesome. The market expects August spending to rise 0.8%, much more than July. Oil price gains are one thing, but Bank of America’s data shows that even excluding gasoline, spending still rises 5.7%. People complain about prices, but their hands keep swiping credit cards.
Last night, Williams delivered a softer message, saying “no rush,” and the odds of a rate hike in October dropped from about 70% to around 50%. But Baird’s side is being tougher, saying they “haven’t seen a trend of inflation coming down.” Even inside the Fed, they’re fighting with each other.
If tonight’s core PCE truly lands at 0.3% or above, then the 50% rate-hike probability will immediately jump higher.$CL $XAU $KORU

#sec主席拟推动股市上链 Has the probability of a rate hike fallen again? What is the market betting on this time?
A single remark from the New York Fed president sent bets on an October rate hike plunging from 70% to 50%.
What did Williams say? Basically: we just hiked in September, so don’t rush; there may be another one later this year, but it doesn’t have to be in October.
It sounded mild, but it was actually quite important. He is the Fed’s third-ranking figure, a permanent voting member, and his words carry real weight. The market quickly changed its tune: those previously betting on back-to-back hikes in October started betting on “skip October and talk about December later.”
But don’t relax too soon. On the same day, Barr and Goolsbee were still saying: inflation hasn’t come down, and if another hike is needed, it should happen.
So the situation now is: officials are divided in what they say, while the market votes with its feet. The probability of no rate hike in October is now over half, but the one hike expected this year is basically unavoidable.
The bond market is being more honest. The yield on 30-year Treasuries still surged above 5.6%, the highest since 2002. Even falling oil prices didn’t help—the market simply doesn’t believe inflation will come down on its own.$BTC $CL $SOXL

Not easy to deal with—won't last until it hits zero.
Let's come out first and talk.

#股票财报季 Micron earnings eve: Options are betting on an 8% big move—what exactly is that AI “stock god” who got liquidated doing, going long or short?
First, the conclusion: The data is likely to beat expectations, but the stock price may not rise.
Wall Street is currently looking for Q4 revenue of $51.3 billion and EPS of $3.17. The company’s own guidance is $50 billion. Institutions generally believe it can top the numbers—UBS even sees $52.4 billion and EPS of $3.25. The fundamentals are indeed solid: the gross margin outlook is 86%, an all-time high level the storage industry has never seen before.
But the options market is telling a different story. Implied volatility suggests the market is pricing in a post-earnings move of about ±8% to 10%. More importantly, the put/call ratio for options expiring on October 2 is at 1.7x—an extremely strong bearish skew. In other words, many people are buying protection or directly shorting.
You asked about that “AI stock god,” Leopold Aschenbrenner. After losing $35 billion due to the liquidation, he has since returned. But his positioning is the exact opposite of what you might think: he cleared all his semiconductor short positions, then allocated 55% of his portfolio to storage—SanDisk at 28% and Micron at 27.6%. He isn’t shorting—he’s going long, and heavily so.
So here’s the setup: Analysts are bullish on the fundamentals, options traders are buying insurance, and the person who blew up is putting real money on a rebound.$MUU $SNDK $SOXL

$Spell AI memes that came out and started running on the chain from overseas—there were many, but earlier DeepSeek and Kimi didn’t manage to do so. If we’re going to see one that actually runs, then let’s see tomorrow whether ByteDance’s Spell artificial intelligence model has any standout features. And if you want to gauge the hype, the only one that can truly run is $spell

CA：0x970af110b0db09baf16faefd1da8e23770f67777

#amd82亿美元收购worldlabs US pre-market news: Storage chip and optical communication stocks broadly rise; SK hynix and Micron Technologies both gain more than 1%

Dow futures fall 0.03%, Nasdaq futures rise 0.09%, and S&P 500 index futures rise 0.01%.

Major technology stocks are mixed in pre-market trading: Nvidia up 0.67%, Apple down 0.21%, Microsoft down 0.14%, Google down 0.16%, Amazon up 0.24%, Meta up 0.15%, and Tesla up 0.41%.

Storage chip stocks are broadly higher pre-market: SK hynix up 1.31%, Micron Technology up 1.55%, Seagate Technology up 0.92%, SanDisk up 1.28%, and Western Digital up 0.54%.

Optical communication stocks are broadly higher pre-market: Lumentum up 0.96%, Corning up 0.27%, Coherent up 0.89%, Applied Optoelectronics up 0.49%, Ciena up 0.72%, Broadcom up 0.37%, and Mativ? (MRVL) up 1.15%.

WTI crude oil futures rise 0.80% to $93.34 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures rise 0.85% to $98.66 per barrel.

Spot gold in London rises 0.66% to $4,141.47 per ounce; spot silver in London rises 0.35% to $60.809 per ounce.

US plans to have Boeing’s “Starliner” return for crewed flights in 2028
On the 28th, NASA released the latest progress and mission plans for Boeing’s “Starliner.” The plan is to carry out the uncrewed “Starliner-1” mission to the International Space Station as early as December this year or January next year, and to conduct the crewed “Starliner-2” mission in 2028.

SpaceX’s “Starship” achieves its first Earth-orbit flight, but mission ends early
On the 28th, SpaceX’s “Starship” spacecraft achieved its first Earth-orbital flight, delivering 26 next-generation “Starlink” V3 satellites into orbit, but the test flight mission ended earlier than originally planned.

Australia central bank hikes rates to 4.6%, a nearly 15-year high
On the 29th, the Reserve Bank of Australia (the central bank) announced a 25-basis-point increase in the benchmark interest rate to 4.6%. This is the fourth rate hike by the RBA this year, taking rates to the highest level since late 2011.$CL $XAU $SOXL

$Spell bytes will be released soon, spell large model
Right tomorrow, September 30
This is a phenomenon-level AI phone assistant that can be compared to Meta’s Muse

We’re laying in this spot right now, waiting for tomorrow’s hype to pick up, and the emotions to keep fermenting

CA：0x970af110b0db09baf16faefd1da8e23770f67777

#黄金跌至4144美元 U.S. stock market roundup analysis: Treasury yields surge above 5.2%, risk assets get hammered across the board, gold and oil play “roller coasters”

On Monday, U.S. stocks closed lower across the board: the S&P fell 0.8% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.1%. The real storm center is the bond market: the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries jumped to 5.23%, a near-20-year high, and the interest-rate swap market has priced in at least three rate hikes in the coming year.

The transmission chain is clear: stalled U.S.-Iran talks → oil price stays high and fluctuates → inflation expectations heat up → rate-hike bets intensify → Treasuries get sold off → high-valuation tech stocks get hit first.

Asset performance is sharply split.

Gold plunged nearly 4% to $4,118; rising real yields directly pressured non–interest-bearing assets. Oil saw violent intraday swings: Brent once surged before slipping back, and ultimately closed around $105. Bitcoin briefly fell below $82,500 before rebounding.

AI-related stocks led the declines. Nvidia rose 1.68% despite the pressure, supported by a $150 billion buyback. However, the semiconductor index overall fell 1.61%; Arm dropped 8.7%, and Qualcomm slid 7%.

If rates don’t come down, don’t rush to pick the bottom. Wait for a signal that Treasury yields have peaked—it's more reliable than guessing the bottom.$CL $BTC $XAU

#英伟达批准1500亿美元回购 US stock closing summary: the high-interest-rate storm is back, and Nvidia has become the only “safe haven”
On Monday, US stocks were battered by Treasury yields, which pinned them to the ground. The 10-year Treasury surged to 5.2%, the Dow fell 0.67%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.77%, and the Nasdaq slid 0.92%.

Tech stocks were a mess: Meta plunged 4.79%, Tesla fell 3.94%, Intel crashed by over 5%, and the semiconductor sector was nearly all down.

But Nvidia bucked the trend and closed up 1.68%, with trading volume of $32.5 billion, firmly topping the charts. Why? It announced an additional $150 billion share repurchase, setting a record in US stock market history. Jensen Huang’s takeaway was simple: the valuation is too tempting. While others are getting hit, it’s out there throwing money.

The market logic right now is straightforward: when rates are high, high-valuation tech stocks get cut first. Nvidia can withstand it because its cash flows are strong and its buybacks are fierce. Others that rely on telling stories to support valuations will likely have to keep bearing it in the near term.

If rates don’t come down, don’t rush to bottom-fish those that have dropped sharply. First, see who can hold up—then talk about who’s worth buying.$NVDA $SOXL $KORU

$#anthropic招股书或估值超2万亿美元 2 trillion valuation, $42 billion loss, and a $5180 billion compute wager: How should we view Anthropic’s IPO?

First, look at the numbers on the books. Last year, revenue was $4.6 billion, up 12 times—impressive. But operating losses were $8 billion. Compute spending was $7.3 billion; for every $1 earned, $1.6 is burned. They have $20.3 billion in cash, which won’t last long under this burn rate.

The real risk is coming later: over the next few years, the pledged compute-related spending is $5180 billion—112 times the annual revenue. This isn’t running a business; it’s betting the whole stake on the future.

A $2 trillion valuation implies that 2025 revenue would be priced at 436x sales. To justify that price, by 2028 revenue would need to reach $190–200 billion. In three years, expanding over 40x—do you believe that?

There’s also a key detail: nearly a quarter of revenue comes from two customers, and there are no long-term contracts. If customers leave, the story can’t continue.

The IPO could be delayed until mid-November after the midterm elections. My view is simple: this is a classic case of primary-market valuations getting “inverted” onto the secondary market. Institutions bought the deal at $965 billion; at listing, it needs to scale to $2 trillion to exit. Will you take it?

If you want to bet on the AI narrative, first figure out who will pay the $5180 billion bill. $ANTHROPIC

#韩股kospi指数跌2.7%三星sk海力士跌超5% US stocks: Most semiconductor stocks fall; Philadelphia Semiconductor Index drops 1.5%

Among constituent stocks, ARM falls by more than 8%, Qualcomm by more than 7%, Intel by more than 4%, Marvell Technology and AMD by more than 3%, and Micron Technology by more than 2%;

NVIDIA rises by more than 3% against the trend. The company announced that it will increase its share repurchase authorization by $150 billion.

SpaceX: All 26 satellites on Starship are successfully deployed into orbit.
$KORU $SOXL $SPCX

#韩股kospi指数跌2.7%三星sk海力士跌超5% Asia is collapsing again! Samsung and SK Hynix wipe out 5% in a single day—this drop is no joke
Just after the Mid-Autumn Festival, Korea’s stock market directly hit investors with a hard blow. KOSPI fell 2.7% today and couldn’t even hold 6,900. The worst of it is Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix—both brothers dropped over 5% across the board. In just one day, foreign capital ran away with 3.2 trillion won, and institutions also sold off, dumping another 1 trillion. Even in the U.S. pre-market it didn’t escape—Nasdaq futures are down nearly 1%. Nvidia, Micron, and AMD are all lying flat in the green.
Why is it falling like this? Three things happened at once.
First, oil prices went crazy. The U.S.-Iran talks broke down again. Trump simply rejected the other side’s proposal. Brent crude jumped to nearly 100 dollars, and WTI also surged above 93. When oil rises, inflation can’t be contained, and expectations for Fed rate hikes instantly heat up—now the market is betting that the probability of a rate hike in October has reached 65% or higher.
Second, U.S. Treasury yields are killing. The yield on the 30-year Treasury surged to 5.5%, nearing the peak level of 2004. With government bond yields that high, who would still want to hold overvalued tech stocks? SK Hynix—an AI hardware leader—was hit first as foreign investors dumped shares.
Third, OpenAI had a safety incident and paused training for cutting-edge models. The market panicked at once, worrying that AI capital expenditures may slow down. Chip stocks were treated as a cash machine straight away.
How should we look at the outlook? In the short term, stay defensive and don’t rush to bottom-fish. The pressure from oil prices hasn’t been fully released yet, and unless Treasury yields pull back, tech stocks will keep getting beaten. $SOXL $KORU $SKHY

Understand the U.S. stock pre-market trading action, read the market moves, get ahead of the curve—stay leading all the way

#比特币跌破8.3万美元 U.S.-Iran Talks Break Down, Oil Prices Skyrocket, Gold and BTC Collapse! Semiconductors Are Hiding a Big Move?
Today pre-market sentiment is chaotic, but the logic is solid. The negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have completely stalled, and oil prices are pushed sharply higher—WTI crude futures are up more than 4%, approaching $96. When oil rises, gold and Bitcoin fall hard: spot gold is down nearly 3%, and BTC has dropped below $83,000. Money is flowing toward safe-havens and energy.
In tech stocks, it’s fire on one side and ice on the other. Storage and optical communications are hit the hardest in the pre-market. SK Hynix and SanDisk are down over 3%, and Corning is down more than 3%. Behind this is concern triggered by SK Hynix’s plan to split and list its subsidiary, plus U.S. Treasury yields jumping above 5.1% and weighing on valuations. But China concept stocks are surprisingly resilient—NetEase is up 4%, and Li Auto and XPeng are rebounding as well. Investors are looking for a shelter.
The key point: tonight, watch for SpaceX’s 14th Starship test flight. If it succeeds, the narrative of expansion in commercial space and AI computing power can retake control of the market. Right now, the shorts are smashing chips—more like they’re waiting for an excuse to launch a counterattack.
On trading: this is a window for defense and counterplay. High oil prices are compressing valuations, but the industry trend for AI computing power hasn’t changed. Don’t chase high oil and gas. Wait patiently for the semiconductors’ panic selling to show up—Starship’s launch is the best catalyst.
Follow me—I'll walk you through the main contradictions in the pre-market.$BTC $CL $SOXL #黄金跌至4144美元 #比特币现货ETF周净流入23.9亿美元

QNT doubles within a week—this isn’t KOL hype calling trades; it’s the US clearinghouse that stamped it.
This round has nothing to do with community trade calls. On September 24, the US clearinghouse (The Clearing House) officially announced the selection of Quant (QNT) as the technology provider for its “On-chain Currency Program.” This organization processes over $2 trillion in payments every day. In simple terms, it’s handing the tokenized deposits settlement layer of the US banking system to QNT to handle—this is a real, institutional-level order.
On-chain data also says the same: in the eight days before the announcement, active addresses rose from below 800 to above 870—someone moved early.
At the current price of around 260–290, it touched a high of 373 this morning, with a roughly 90% gain over the past 24 hours. But a few signals must be clearly noted: RSI is already 78, which is extremely overbought; more than 70% of the trading volume is wash trading; and exchange inflows are increasing—someone is transferring inventory to exchanges, preparing to sell. $QNT #Quant将支持清算所区块链支付网络

#狗狗币etf创上市来最大周流入 Dogecoin ETF surges with huge inflows. This time it’s not Musk’s tweeting that’s driving it—big players are quietly gobbling it up.
This amount of money isn’t something Musk “call-bought” into the market at all. It’s real cash coming in, stacked up by genuine purchases.
Grayscale’s GDOG alone absorbed nearly 80% of the inflows. Bitwise announced it was closing up shop, and then the funds all poured into Grayscale right after—purely a passive “pool-switching” effect. The real story: in the past 96 hours, whale addresses increased their holdings by 1.14 billion DOGE, worth $112 million. That’s what actually provides the emotional backbone.
On the chart, DOGE is hovering around 0.098. This level is sitting on about 28 billion worth of traded lots, and 0.10 is the hard ceiling. Now, 76% of the contract positions are long—so crowded it’s scary. My view: don’t chase. Wait for it to first hold above 0.10. Without a breakout on volume, it’s a false move. Support around 0.09 is the line in the sand. $DOGE