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#HYPE第二季度上涨79%

#韩国kospi跌4.58%
Overnight, US stocks diverged: the Dow rose 0.49% to 54,349.12 points, setting a new all-time high again; the Nasdaq fell 0.83% to 26,363.44 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 1.40%, AMD fell more than 7%, and the storage sector weakened broadly.

In the Asia-Pacific region, South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 4.58% to 6,296.38 points; Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.93%; and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 2.28%. Chip stocks and heavyweight tech stocks broadly declined.

Overall, the global technology sector is under pressure today.

🟢Today’s decline is, in essence, a normal market fluctuation and does not trigger any fundamental signals.

🟢My holdings are concentrated in global technology and semiconductors. The returns from these assets come from industry trends and company earnings, not short-term quotes. The discipline of dollar-cost averaging is reflected in maintaining the same amount and frequency regardless of whether the market is up or down. The number of units bought today with 1,150 yuan is higher than last week—an objective discount caused by the drop.

🟢In my personal allocation for August, I’m more tilted toward US stocks, so I’m pausing DCA for funds with a higher A-share weighting. This portfolio’s QDII global technology fund is not affected and will continue to follow the plan.

🟢While ineffective market volatility can’t be predicted, there are clues to the long-term growth direction. I choose to counter emotions with rules and let time absorb the fluctuations.
Keep executing the plan.

#hype第二季度上涨79%
HYPE Surges 79% to New Highs—But the Data Worth Paying Attention to Isn’t the Price Itself
Just after the Q2 report came out, HYPE jumped 79%, breaking above the $76.9 all-time high. In the same period, Bitcoin fell 14%.
Everyone’s focused on the price, but these three data points are far more worth digging into—
First, protocol revenue has bottomed out and rebounded, showing a clear V-shaped reversal. April’s monthly revenue was only $52 million; by June it soared to $169 million—more than tripling. Cumulative protocol revenue has surpassed $1 billion, and $141 million has already been returned to token holders via the buyback mechanism. This isn’t an “air coin”—it’s a protocol that continuously generates cash flow.
Second, RWA unexpectedly exploded. In Q1, the share of real-world asset transactions on-chain was only 1.8%; in Q2 it jumped to 32.2%, reaching $21.3 billion in a single quarter. Stocks, commodities, and Pre-IPO assets are all trading on-chain, and some Wall Street institutions have already started migrating parts of their derivatives positions over. Traditional capital is starting to test the waters.
Third, ETF flows keep turning into sustained net inflows. Over eight weeks, three HYPE ETFs—21Shares, Bitwise, and Grayscale—raked in $309 million, and institutional addresses are continuing to accumulate.
The common thread across these three data points is this—HYPE is being repriced. The market is starting to value it as a “cash-flow-generating protocol,” not a high-volatility speculative asset.
But after a 79% rally, is it still worth chasing? Where are the Q3 catalysts? Is $100 still far away?
Tonight’s recap will share the key levels for Q3 along with the positioning strategy. Tap follow and don’t miss it.

#美adp7月私营就业逊预期
The small non-farm jobs report has collapsed, but inflation hasn’t gone away—how do we play this?
The newly released ADP shows that in July, private employment increased by only 44,000, versus expectations of 75,000, and the prior figure was revised down to 95,000. It’s the lowest since the start of the year—basically halved, then halved again.
But what really makes me look twice isn’t just the total breakdown—it’s the structure:
All job growth came from the services sector, while goods production net fell by 3,000. Education and healthcare contributed 36,000 jobs—one industry effectively holding up an entire segment of the market. Meanwhile, leisure and hospitality directly cut 11,000, and trade and transportation also trimmed 8,000.
On the other side, the pay raise for job-hoppers surged to 7%, the highest in about a year, while retention pay for stayers is stuck at 4.4% and hasn’t budged.
So what does this mean?
Employment is shrinking, but the cost of hiring is actually getting higher.
The expansion in services hasn’t translated into a synchronized increase in hiring. Companies would rather have existing employees work overtime than expand headcount. And the sharp jump in job-hopper pay indicates that the most experienced talent in the market still commands a premium.
For traders, this set of data delivers the most uncomfortable combination: you have signals of economic cooling, but the root of inflation hasn’t been pulled out yet.
The Fed is in an awkward spot right now—weak employment gives dovish reasons, but the jump in wages leaves the hawks with no way to back down. If Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls also disappoint, the market will start seriously pricing in expectations for rate cuts; if Non-Farm Payrolls holds up, then today’s ADP is just noise and the script returns to an inflation narrative.
What I care about more is: historically, how does this kind of combo—"slowing employment + wage stickiness"—usually play out?

#美股收盘涨跌不一英伟达提振道指
The Dow hits new highs while the Nasdaq eats noodles—Nvidia single-handedly drags a bunch of teammates
Last night’s U.S. stock market was a classic “one god carrying four pits.” The Dow rose 0.49% and hard-pushed to fresh highs—54,349 points, a fifth straight up day. But the Nasdaq fell 0.83%, and the S&P was also green at -0.17%. Technology stocks were completely split internally.
Who’s pulling up? Nvidia.
This thing is up 3.43%, with $34.4 billion in turnover—the top across the whole market. The stock has hit five consecutive gains and set a two-month high. Musk even personally showed up, saying that for SpaceX going forward, it will only buy Nvidia’s AI chips—“the best artificial intelligence computer,” no comparison. One sentence pushed the stock price up another notch.
Who’s dumping? A bunch of “pig teammates.”
AMD plunged 7%. Its Q3 revenue guidance didn’t meet Wall Street’s most bullish expectations, and the money turned on it immediately. The memory leaders—SanDisk and Western Digital—both fell more than 5%. SK Hynix’s ADR also dropped over 2%. Google fell 4%, and after SpaceX’s IPO, its first earnings report dropped 13%, wiping out $225.2 billion in market value in a single day.
The whole Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also slid 1.4%, but Nvidia refused to be dragged down.
What does this show? Investors are doing extreme selection within the chip sector—holding onto the AI-compute leader with the strongest performance certainty, while tossing out concept stocks and expectation plays. It’s the same script as yesterday’s Japan–Korea selloff: memory-chip carnage hits valuation, and only Nvidia has takers.
In the short term, this divergence should continue. Selling pressure on AMD and memory-related names still hasn’t fully released. But after Nvidia’s five-day run, it’s also trading near the prior high—whether to chase or not is something you have to weigh.

#美国ism服务业指数升至54.1
U.S. July ISM Services Index at 54.1—behind the surface prosperity lurks danger
Freshly released data shows the U.S. July ISM Services PMI came in at 54.1, slightly above the prior reading of 54.0, marking the 25th consecutive month of expansion. At first glance, the U.S. economy looks rock solid: new orders surged to 57.2, and business activity jumped to 59.1, reaching a five-month high. With data this strong, how could the Federal Reserve cut rates?
But the most “shocking” part of this set isn’t the 54.1 itself—it’s the two knives hidden in the subcomponents.
First, the jobs index turned downward. In July, the services employment index fell to 47.4, slipping back into contraction territory. Business activity is expanding here, while firms are cutting back on hiring there. What does that mean? Either business owners lack confidence in the future and are choosing to rely on existing staff rather than add headcount; or costs are too high and they can’t afford to hire.
Second, prices can’t be contained at all. The prices paid index surged to 70.3, breaking above 70 for the fourth time in five months. Oil price rebounds plus tariff pass-through are squeezing corporate profits from both ends.
Looking at the market setup, services strength is real—but the combination of weak employment and high prices is the most uncomfortable configuration for traders. You can’t confidently go long (inflation expectations are heating up), and you also can’t take a big short position (economic resilience is still there).
Keep a close eye on this Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls data. Services employment has already flashed a yellow warning light early. If Nonfarm Payrolls also falls apart, then the true value of this services expansion will need to be reassessed.

#sk海力士三星拖累韩股下挫
Samsung and SK Hynix team up to sell off—behind the plunge in Korean stocks is a signal
There’s not much to say about today’s market action. SK Hynix plunged 5.7%, and Samsung also cut 2.44%. Together, the two heavyweight stocks knocked the KOSPI down by 1.8%. Foreign and institutional investors ran for the exits today faster than rabbits—during the morning session alone they sold off more than 120 billion won. The bit of dip-buying money from retail investors didn’t even make a ripple.
On the surface, the fuse is that the overnight Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 1.4%, AMD crashed by 7%, and when Japan and Korea opened, they simply gap-downed to keep selling.
But let me tell you: what’s really worth pondering isn’t how much we dropped today—it’s what happens next.
Such sharp selloffs usually match one of two scenarios. One is a short-term oversold bounce that’s almost ready to happen: after the panic selling gets cleared, funds will come back to cover. The other is a trend reversal: high-level holders start distributing their shares, and there are deeper traps ahead. The strategies for responding to these two scenarios are completely different. If you end up on the wrong side, the losses from this drop could be more than just today’s mark-to-market drawdown.

Single trades take-profit, $SNDK made 35,694 U, $SKHYNIX made 8,765 U, XAU made 6,388 U, and crude oil was slightly down 3,870 U.
Net profit: 46,978 U.
I’ve got a Tesla Model 3 in hand.
The point isn’t to show off—it’s to tell you: this month I only did these three trades. Wait for the signal, go heavy, and wrap up. The rest of the time I just watch the market and drink tea.
In the SNDK trade, it accounted for 70% of the profit. I went short at 1450 and left at 1246 this morning, holding for 19 hours, with 20x leverage.#美ADP7月私营就业逊预期

#金价维持4000美元上方
📈 Gold prices hold steady above $4,000! Institutions call it the “bottom area”
Despite months of pullbacks, gold prices still remain above $4,000. Spot gold briefly broke through $4,120 per ounce today, and is currently around $4,180.
🔑 Why is the $4,000 level so crucial?
A recent report from China CITIC Securities clearly states that around $4,000 per ounce is likely the bottom area of this round of corrections.
The key logic is that three major long-term factors have not changed:
US fiscal deficits are accelerating—growth in defense spending and interest payments is nearly irreversible
Geopolitical fault lines are hard to heal—deglobalization remains a cornerstone of gold pricing
Global central banks continue to buy gold—countries including China and Poland are still increasing holdings
Analysts estimate that the current pullback is close to historical extremes (about -29%), corresponding to a bottom range of roughly $3,840–$3,970, which closely matches current levels.
💡 Institutional view: $4,000 is an “ideal add-to-position” level
An asset management firm, abrdn, investment strategy chief, said plainly: “$4,000 is a good level to rebuild positions.” He believes investors should not be scared off by the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric, but instead focus on longer-term government debt and central bank demand.
“ETF investors haven’t sold off much, while hedge funds are betting on higher gold prices via options.”
🔮 Outlook: wait for catalysts
The market is currently waiting for this week’s US employment data to gauge the Fed’s next move. Meanwhile, institutions believe the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may shift from weighing on prices to boosting them. Combined with accelerating US fiscal expansion, they expect gold prices to return to an upward channel within the year.

#spacex将公布q2财报
SpaceX Latest Financial Report Analysis & Interpretation (1)
SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX) officially went public in June 2026. It is now a publicly traded company. The following is a comprehensive analysis of its latest financial report (Q2 2026, the first quarterly report after listing) and stock price performance. #Starship #Space #Technology #LargeModels #Aerospace
1. Highlights of the latest financial report (Q2 2026, as of June 30)
On August 4, 2026, SpaceX released its first quarterly report after going public. Overall revenue significantly beat expectations, losses narrowed substantially, but capital expenditures (especially those related to AI) remain extremely high.
Metric Q2 2026 YoY change Market expectation Total revenue $7.8 billion +92% (prior year $4.1 billion) About $6.9 billion Net profit -$541 million Losses narrowed (prior year -$1.0 billion) Losses larger than expected Operating loss -$143 million Significant narrowing (prior year -$970 million) Adjusted EBITDA $3.5 billion +191%
Segment performance:
Connectivity (mainly Starlink): revenue $4.29 billion (+66%), operating profit $1.66 billion—its primary cash cow. Starlink had about 12 million users (up about 1x year over year).
AI business (including xAI, cloud computing, etc.): revenue $2.56 billion (about +250%), but operating loss $1.26 billion. The company is heavily investing in AI compute infrastructure, and CapEx has risen sharply.
Space (launches, etc.): revenue $962 million, still in loss (operating loss about $542 million), mainly due to Starship R&D spending.
Full-year background (2025):
Revenue $18.67 billion (+33%).
Net loss of about $4.94 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA of about $6.6 billion.
Starlink has become the absolute core source of profit.
Other key data:
After the IPO, cash reserves increased significantly to approximately $93.5–$100 billion.
The CFO said the company is expected to reach about $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) by the end of 2026.
AI-related capital expenditures are extremely high (AI-related spend in a single quarter in Q2 rose markedly), and the market is quite sensitive to this.

#穆迪首予sk海力士a级评级
📈 Moody’s initiates SK hynix A3 rating, AI storage leader reaches a new milestone
Moody’s, one of the world’s three major credit rating agencies, has for the first time upgraded SK hynix’s credit rating to A3 with a stable outlook, making it the first among the three agencies to issue an A-grade rating. Previously, both S&P and Fitch maintained the BBB+ rating.
🔑 Why the upgrade? HBM demand continues to fuel growth
This rating increase directly reflects Moody’s recognition of SK hynix’s leading position in the AI storage space:
Explosive earnings growth: Moody’s expects the company’s adjusted EBITDA to reach 274 trillion won in 2026, more than four times higher than in 2025, with 2027 projected to rise further to 374 trillion won.
Significant improvement in financial structure: As of the end of June 2026, adjusted net cash was about 67 trillion won, and the company aims to maintain a net cash level of more than 100 trillion won.
HBM advantages remain solid: As cloud service providers continue to ramp up investment in AI infrastructure, strong demand for AI memory such as HBM and DDR5 is boosting growth. SK hynix’s first-mover advantage in the HBM market provides robust earnings support.
⚠️ Concerns still to watch
Moody’s also flagged potential risks:
Cyclical fluctuations inherent to the memory industry and high capital intensity
Ongoing process transitions and demand for large-scale equipment investment
Intensifying competition from Chinese memory manufacturers
The upgrade came as SK hynix’s 24-day quiet period ended. Market expectations for its upcoming shareholder return plan have heated up, and the stock price jumped nearly 8% at one point on Wednesday.

#act吁三星电子回购320亿美元
📢 ACT launches an action demanding Samsung Electronics to repurchase $32 billion, with its sights set on employee bonus agreements
The Korean retail-investor rights platform ACT has officially launched an action, urging Samsung Electronics to convene an extraordinary general meeting of shareholders to consider a stock repurchase plan of about $32 billion (KRW 455 trillion) and to set a cap on performance bonuses tied to operating profit.
🎯 Two key proposals
Approve a $32 billion stock repurchase and cancellation: ACT argues that Samsung’s second-quarter free cash flow is sufficient, and that 50% of it should be returned to shareholders through buybacks.
Require shareholders to approve a cap on performance bonuses: ACT asks that approval authority over “large bonuses linked to operating profit” be transferred to the general meeting of shareholders.
🔥 The spark: a 10.5% profit-sharing agreement between Samsung and the unions
In May of this year, to avoid large-scale strikes, Samsung reached an agreement with the unions: 10.5% of the operating profit from its semiconductor business would be paid to employees in the form of company stock as a special performance bonus, with a term of up to 10 years.
Core of the dispute: Retail investors argue that this effectively amounts to the board and the union privately locking in the destination of a huge portion of profit in advance, harming shareholders’ interests. Based on current earnings levels, the bonus could amount to hundreds of billions of dollars over the next decade.
⚠️ Challenges ahead
To call an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting, shareholders holding at least 3% of Samsung’s shares must jointly make the request. Nearly half of Samsung’s shares are held by foreign investors, limiting the influence of retail investors. ACT is actively seeking support from large institutional investors such as South Korea’s National Pension Service.

#spacex首个锁定期8月6日到期
🚨 SpaceX’s first lock-up expires on August 6! 912 million shares are set to be released—history’s largest wave of selling pressure is coming
The earnings report just exploded, and now comes a trillion-dollar lock-up release test—SPCX’s real challenge is only just beginning.
SpaceX (SPCX)’s first lock-up period will officially expire on August 6 (this Thursday). Approximately 912 million shares held by employees and pre-IPO shareholders will be freed from restrictions. Based on the current share price, the corresponding market value is about $114 billion—roughly 1.4 times the current float.
🔓 How big is the unlock?
Tradable shares: The proportion will jump from under 5% to about 12%
Short bets: Already at 34% of the float—markets are highly alert to price pressure
Phased unlocks: The first batch of 20% will be released on August 6; subsequent batches will be released gradually over the coming months, continuing until 2027
Notably, founder Elon Musk’s holdings are subject to a one-year lock-up, with the earliest possible release date in June 2027.
💰 Strong incentive to cash out
Early investors and employees acquired shares at costs far below the IPO price ($135). Now their paper gains are substantial. R.F. Lafferty & Co. CEO revealed that some early investors have already called to inquire about opportunities to monetize their holdings, planning to redirect funds to new AI and defense-tech targets such as Anthropic and OpenAI.
A Renaissance Capital analyst said bluntly that SpaceX employees and early investors “sit on massive gains, with a very strong motivation to realize returns and diversify their positions.”
⚠️ But don’t panic yet
Unlock ≠ immediate selling: Ultimately, it depends on the actual willingness of shareholders to sell
Insiders aren’t in a rush to sell: Some employees have long-term optimism about SpaceX and there are no obvious signs of heavy selling
Earnings beat expectations: Q2 revenue is up 92% year over year—strong fundamentals may be able to absorb the new supply
Before the unlock, Morgan Stanley reiterated a $300 price target (upside potential of 166%), saying the current decline is an “attractive entry point.” HSBC, on the other hand, set a $115 target and took a relatively cautious stance.

#比特币收复6.4万美元关口
📈 Bitcoin Reclaims the $64,000 Mark! Macro Improves, but Sentiment Still Looks Cautious
Bitcoin has recently been choppy but has rebounded, moving back above the $64,000 level. It is currently trading around $64,100, up about 1% over the past 24 hours.
🔥 What’s Driving the Rebound: Easing Geopolitics Boosts Risk Appetite
The main driver behind this rebound is macroeconomic. Positive progress has been made in U.S.-Iran negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp drop in oil prices and easing inflation expectations. In addition, strong performance from U.S. tech stocks has pushed risk assets higher overall, indirectly lifting Bitcoin back above $64,000.
Moreover, spot ETFs have shown signs of stabilizing with net inflows after the end-of-month shakeout, and long-term institutional positions have not loosened, providing some support to the market.
⚔️ Bulls vs. Bears: Sentiment Still in “Fear”
Even though price has reclaimed the 64K level, market competition remains intense, with multiple factors weighing on price:
Sentiment remains conservative: The Fear and Greed Index is 27. Although it has risen from 25 the day before (extreme fear), it has stayed in the low range of 25–29 for several consecutive days, and investors overall remain cautious.
Key resistance/overhead supply: Heavy sell pressure near the $64,000 area persists. Multiple attempts have not led to a sustained breakout, and the market is still in a sideways consolidation phase.
Negative news hasn’t fully gone away: The Coldcard security incident is still developing, and Strategy reduced its holdings by 1,638 BTC last week, putting additional pressure on market sentiment.
📊 Outlook: $63K Becomes the Critical Defense Zone
On-chain data shows that roughly 515,000 BTC are concentrated around $63,000, making this area an important near-term support zone. If Bitcoin can hold above $63,000, sentiment may continue to lean toward recovery. If that level is lost, traders may reassess the strength of buy-side support below.
In the short term, if the Hormuz agreement is ultimately confirmed, it could become the biggest macro catalyst this week. However, if the market still fails to rebound after the news lands, that would suggest buyers have shifted to other areas.

#amd盘后跌8%
AMD shares fell more than 8% after the bell! Earnings beat expectations across the board—why isn't the market buying it?
Revenue hit a record, data center revenue doubled, and guidance beat expectations—yet the stock still plunged.
The stock surged 7% on Tuesday, but after hours it briefly dropped more than 9%. What happened with AMD’s earnings report?
📊 The numbers beat expectations in every way—no real flaws
Revenue: $11.54 billion, up 50% year over year, a record high
Net profit: $2.3 billion, up 163% year over year
Earnings per share: $1.66, above the expected $1.62
Data center revenue: $6.7 billion, up 107% year over year, accounting for 58% of total revenue
🔥 Two “expectation gaps” behind the plunge
Q3 guidance: $13.0 billion vs. the most optimistic expectation of $14.0 billion
While guidance exceeded Wall Street’s average estimate of $12.5 billion, aggressive investors had been betting on $13.5–$14.0 billion—missing the most bullish target means it doesn’t get an “A.”
CFO comments didn’t ease concerns
When analysts asked why Q3 growth would be lower than Q2, the CFO explained that “the acceleration is relative to the first half in the second half, not something that rises quarter by quarter,” which the market interpreted as a sign that growth momentum may be slowing.
📌 One-sentence summary
The earnings are fine—it's just that the stock had already run up too much. It has doubled this year, and all the good news was priced in early. Guidance of $13.0 billion is a surprise to others, but for AMD it’s only a “passing grade.”

#spacexai支出拖累首份财报
🚀 SpaceX’s first earnings report: revenue explodes, but AI spending drags it down! Shares plunge nearly 9% after hours
Revenue doubles, losses narrow more than expected, but the $15.8 billion AI cash burn has the market spooked.
All eyes on SpaceX (SPCX) — its first quarterly report after going public is out. The stock jumped 9.8% at the close, but then plunged nearly 9% in after-hours trading — a textbook case of “selling off once the lights are on.”
📊 Data is explosive, beating expectations across the board
Revenue: $7.814 billion, +92% year over year
Adjusted EBITDA: $3.538 billion, +191% year over year
Net loss: narrowed to $541 million, an improvement of 46% YoY
Loss per share: -$0.09, far better than expected
📡 Starlink drives profits, while AI keeps burning money

Business Revenue Highlights
Starlink 4.29 billion Users double to 12 million, profit +79%
Space 962 million Losses widen, still in investment phase
AI 2.56 billion Revenue +247%, but capital expenditures reach $15.8 billion

⚠️ Why the market isn’t buying it?
At the core: “burning money.”
AI single-quarter capital expenditures of $15.8 billion account for 86% of total spending.
Total capex is $18.4 billion — 2.35x revenue.
Management has said AI spending will stay at the same level in Q3 and Q4.
The bigger risk: on August 6, more than $100 billion worth of stock unlocks — the float doubles overnight, and that will be the real test.

#原油价格跌至三周低点
📉 Oil prices fall to a three-week low as geopolitical risk premium accelerates to clear
International oil prices tumble again, sliding to the lowest level since July 10. Brent crude fell 5.3% overnight to $79.36 per barrel, dipping below the $80 mark for the first time in three weeks; WTI crude fell 5.7% to $75.77 per barrel.
🔥 Core sell-off logic: A deal for the Strait of Hormuz on the horizon
The key driver behind this round of sharp declines is rising optimism that the U.S. and Iran may reach a transit agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, causing the geopolitical risk premium to clear faster.
Key updates include:
Positive signals from U.S. officials: Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. and Iran could reach a reopen-the-strait agreement as early as Tuesday or Wednesday (Aug. 4 or 5). Secretary of State Rubio said the talks have made "progress" but are not finalized yet.
Optimistic stance from intermediaries: Qatar said U.S.-Iran negotiations are in a "very advanced stage" and that a draft agreement text has been prepared. The Qatar emir spoke by phone with Trump to discuss narrowing differences.
Details of the proposed terms: According to sources, the plan may include splitting routes for vessels entering and exiting the Persian Gulf via different channels; Iran and Oman would split a "service fee"; and Iran is considering allowing Europe to participate in minesweeping in the strait (a clear softening from its earlier position).
📊 Dual pressure from the supply side
In addition to easing geopolitics, OPEC+ confirmed a sixth consecutive month of output increases in September, further reinforcing signals of supply looseness. This round of increases is about 188,000 barrels per day, which will complete the phased unwind of the 2023 production cuts and leave room for additional volume release after any conflict ends.
⚠️ Caution: The deal hasn’t been signed yet—there is a risk of a rebound from low levels
However, the final agreement has not been formally implemented. Iran denies direct talks with the U.S., stressing that it is only consulting with Oman on managing the strait, and reiterates that it maintains a leading role in strait transit. The shipping industry is also more cautious about how quickly oil flows might resume, and actual transit volumes still need to be verified.
Goldman Sachs expects that, before confirmation of an agreement or a significant escalation in the situation, Brent will remain range-bound within its current broad band. If expectations for a deal fail to materialize over the next one or two days, there is substantial room for a rebound after the sharp sell-off. Going forward, key factors to watch are the actual transit volumes through the strait and the final statements from the U.S. and Iran.

#spacex财报前涨9.8%
SpaceX’s earnings report soars 9%—Should you follow the space-linked stocks?
🔴 The hottest U.S. stock last night

【SpaceX’s first earnings report is out】
The most anticipated report since its IPO on 6/11
After-hours release → a violent jump in the stock price
Up +9.4% at close, market cap $1.65 trillion
Three straight days of rebound: +5.7% → +9.4%

【Why the market is so excited】
① Starlink props up half of the revenue
(2025 revenue: $11.3 billion, 61% share)
② Rumors continue to swirl about a merger with Tesla
③ AI hardware sees a full-blown rally: AMD +7% (earnings beat) / DELL +8.9% / Micron +7.6%

【What to watch in today’s A-share market】
Business aerospace / satellite internet mapped plays:
China Satellite 600118 / Shanghai HuGong 603131
Qingchang Technology 001270 / Zhenlei Technology 688270 / Aerospace Electronics 600879

⚠️ But next month, up to $116 billion worth of shares will be unlocked—overhang pressure on top
If it gaps up, don’t chase—wait for a pullback and then reassess

#原油延续两日跌势
📉 Oil prices extend a two-day decline as geopolitical premium accelerates unwinding
International oil prices fell sharply for a second straight trading day. Brent crude closed down 5.3% overnight to $79.36 per barrel, the first time in more than three weeks it has broken below the $80 level; WTI crude closed down 5.7% to $75.77 per barrel. During today’s Asian session, the downtrend continued, with WTI probing about 1% lower.
🔥 Key driver: the Hormuz Strait agreement in sight
The market continues to digest news that the U.S. and Iran may reach an agreement on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, causing the geopolitical premium to unwind faster.
Key developments include:
U.S. Treasury statement: Bessent said the U.S. and Iran could reach an agreement as early as the next one or two days, enabling free navigation through the strait.
Mediation near completion: According to U.S. media, the U.S., Iran, and Oman are “close to reaching” a 60-day temporary passage arrangement. Iran’s leadership completed the approval process on August 4. The plan includes ships entering the Persian Gulf via Iran’s northern route and exiting via Oman’s southern route; no passage fees are charged within the 60 days, and sea mines along the routes will be cleared within 30 days.
Additional supply boost: OPEC+ agreed to increase output for the sixth consecutive month in September, further reinforcing signals of a supply surplus.
In addition, the Iraq–Turkey pipeline agreement has been extended for one year, allowing up to 750,000 barrels per day of Iraqi crude oil to be shipped. Brazil’s oil and gas production has hit a record high, further adding pressure on the supply side.
📊 Domestic market: SC crude falls more
Dragged down by overseas markets, China’s domestic crude oil-related futures saw broad-based sharp declines today. The benchmark SC crude contract plunged 6.01% to 504.7 yuan per barrel. Products including ethylene glycol (EG) and the European freight index for shipping also fell by more than 5%.
⚠️ Caution: the agreement is not yet signed—there is risk of a rebound from lower levels
Although the market is in panic, the final agreement has not yet been formally signed. The Iranian government continues to deny direct talks with the U.S., insisting that discussions are conducted only through Oman. Shipping players are also more cautious about how quickly oil flows can resume.
Institutional analysts note that if expectations for an agreement within the next one or two days fail to materialize, there may be substantial room for a rebound at low levels after the sharp selloff. In the near term, oil prices are likely to remain highly volatile. Next, attention will focus on the actual volume of passage through the strait and whether the Hormuz agreement can ultimately be implemented.

#黄金连涨第三日
📈 Gold rises for a third consecutive day! Geopolitical easing and renewed rate-cut expectations boost the price—gold breaks above $4,100
Gold strengthens for the third straight trading session. Earlier today, it once broke through $4,120 per ounce, with an intraday gain of more than 1%.
🔑 Key drivers: easing geopolitics + rate-cut expectations
The core logic behind this rebound comes from two factors:
Prospects for the Strait of Hormuz reopening weigh on oil prices: News that the U.S. and Iran are nearing a temporary deal sparked a sharp drop in oil, easing inflation worries. Expectations that the Fed will hike rates before year-end have fallen from two cuts last week to just one, and the decline in real-rate expectations directly benefits gold.
The U.S. dollar weakens: The U.S. Dollar Index remains sluggish, making dollar-denominated gold more attractive to holders of other currencies.
📊 Capital flow signals: Chinese buyers keep stepping in
The China market is sending positive signals. As of Monday, China’s gold ETFs have recorded inflows for 14 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since March. Analysts believe this may indicate that after a long period of selling, sentiment in the world’s largest gold market is starting to turn.
⚠️ What to watch next: key U.S. nonfarm payrolls data
In the near term, the market’s next focus will be the U.S. employment data to be released this week, which will provide crucial clues for the Fed’s next policy path. If the data weakens further and strengthens rate-cut expectations, gold may continue its uptrend; otherwise, the rebound could face pressure.