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陈总趋势论
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#道指下跌超600点
The Dow just fell again by nearly 600 points. The Nasdaq and the S&P followed the plunge. My long BTC position is still open—I’m holding around the 78k area without moving.
Why didn’t I cut (sell)? Because this U.S. stock selloff happened after Powell said inflation is too stubborn and rate cuts have to be pushed back. Capital withdrew from equities; some of that money actually flowed into crypto ETFs. BlackRock’s spot BTC and ETH ETFs recorded a net inflow of 340 million USD just a couple of days ago. What does that indicate? When institutions were dumping the U.S. stocks, they treated BTC as a hedge asset.
Why bullish on BTC? The correlation between BTC and the S&P has fallen to the lowest level since 2015. The 260-day rolling correlation is at -0.6. The last time it looked like this was in 2015. After that, BTC saw a 98.00x (9800%) rally. Of course, you can’t treat it as a copy-paste of history, but it suggests the “digital gold” thesis is starting to play out.
Why not add more? The RSI hasn’t reached extreme oversold yet, and the buy-the-dip strength around 78k is only so-so. I’ll add another tranche when price reaches 75k–76k, and I’ll place the stop-loss below the previous low at 73k. The position size is only two-tenths (20%)—not heavy. It can be held through.
I won’t touch altcoins. After traditional finance and crypto are connected, cross-market capital linkage is faster: when U.S. stocks dump, institutions’ first reaction is to cut alts to free up margin. Those smaller coins don’t have much of a floor when they start falling.
As the saying goes: make the plan ahead of time, and leave the rest to the market. $BTC $ETH
The Dow just fell again by nearly 600 points. The Nasdaq and the S&P followed the plunge. My long BTC position is still open—I’m holding around the 78k area without moving.
Why didn’t I cut (sell)? Because this U.S. stock selloff happened after Powell said inflation is too stubborn and rate cuts have to be pushed back. Capital withdrew from equities; some of that money actually flowed into crypto ETFs. BlackRock’s spot BTC and ETH ETFs recorded a net inflow of 340 million USD just a couple of days ago. What does that indicate? When institutions were dumping the U.S. stocks, they treated BTC as a hedge asset.
Why bullish on BTC? The correlation between BTC and the S&P has fallen to the lowest level since 2015. The 260-day rolling correlation is at -0.6. The last time it looked like this was in 2015. After that, BTC saw a 98.00x (9800%) rally. Of course, you can’t treat it as a copy-paste of history, but it suggests the “digital gold” thesis is starting to play out.
Why not add more? The RSI hasn’t reached extreme oversold yet, and the buy-the-dip strength around 78k is only so-so. I’ll add another tranche when price reaches 75k–76k, and I’ll place the stop-loss below the previous low at 73k. The position size is only two-tenths (20%)—not heavy. It can be held through.
I won’t touch altcoins. After traditional finance and crypto are connected, cross-market capital linkage is faster: when U.S. stocks dump, institutions’ first reaction is to cut alts to free up margin. Those smaller coins don’t have much of a floor when they start falling.
As the saying goes: make the plan ahead of time, and leave the rest to the market. $BTC $ETH
