Crypto With Ali

#US10YearTreasuryYieldNears5%
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has surged past the critical 5% mark for the first time since 2024, driven by hotter-than-expected August inflation data, surging oil prices above $100 per barrel, and mounting concerns over government deficits. This spike is rattling global markets, raising mortgage rates, and increasing pressure on equities.
📊 Key Drivers Behind the Yield Surge
August CPI Data: Inflation held at 3.4% year-on-year, while core monthly CPI rose 0.3%, above forecasts. This fueled expectations of a Fed rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting, with odds near 88%.
Oil Prices: As a result of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the conflict in the Middle East, Brent crude rose to $109 per barrel, up nearly 13% in a week. Government Deficits: Heavy borrowing and rising debt supply are pushing yields higher as investors demand more compensation to hold Treasuries.
Global Bond Selloff: Yields across G7 economies rose nearly 19 basis points in a week, marking the worst selloff since the Middle East war began.
📉 Market Implications
Mortgage Rates: A sustained move above 5% will sharply raise home loan costs, making housing less affordable.
Equities: Higher yields compete with stocks for investor capital, potentially triggering equity selloffs.
Corporate Borrowing: Rising yields mean costlier loans for businesses, tightening financial conditions.
Global Impact: Borrowing costs in Europe and Asia are at multi-decade highs, with central banks like the ECB also raising rates.
⚠️ Risks & Outlook
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing Middle East conflict is fueling oil-driven inflation.
Fed Policy: Markets now expect a rate hike next week, but a softer CPI print could shift expectations.
Fiscal Concerns: U.S. deficits remain a structural driver of higher yields, with Treasury borrowing projected at $739 billion in Q3 2026.
📌 Quick Takeaway
The 5% yield threshold is a psychological and financial tipping point: it signals tighter credit, higher borrowing costs, and potential equity market weakness.
$BZ
$BNGO.US
#US10YearTreasuryYieldNears5% #SECReceivesGrayscaleLitecoinTrustETFFiling #CryptoLiquidations$674MIn24H #USBankCompletesCrossBorderPaymentPilotOnStellar #EtherRalliesAsBearishBetsLiquidate

Investing.com - Jefferies has built a new quantitative framework for pricing gold that targets $4,650 per ounce by year-end, scrapping traditional drivers like real interest rates and the U.S. dollar in favor of central bank reserve behavior and fiscal deficits.
https://investing.com/pro/landing-pagelanding-page
The forecast implies roughly 5% upside from spot prices. For stock market investors, the most direct equity expression of a sustained gold rally remains the major gold miners and royalty companies — names such as Newmont and Agnico Eagle, whose revenue and free cash flow expand mechanically as the realized gold price rises above their all-in sustaining costs.
The intellectual case for the new model starts with a diagnostic: the old one broke. "Gold broke out to the upside from its historical relationship with real rates and the USD in 2024-25," Jefferies wrote.
"As a result, regression models relying on these traditional price drivers alone tend to imply a gold price well below current spot and offer limited insight in the current cycle."
Rather than patch a framework that no longer fits, Jefferies rebuilt from scratch, narrowing its regression window to 30 years — 1995 through 2025, and centering the model on three variables: reserve diversification intensity, a binary flag for whether gold has overtaken U.S. Treasuries in central bank reserve holdings, and the U.S. fiscal deficit as a share of GDP.
The reserve diversification variable is the model's most novel input. Jefferies defines it as annual net central bank gold additions in tonnes divided by the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves, a ratio that rises both when central banks buy more gold and when the dollar's reserve share erodes.
https://www.investing.com/currencies/xau-usd
$XAUT
$NEM.US
$DX.US
#RussiaUkraine72-hourCeasefire #ZECHitsANewAllTimeHigh #USAugustJobGrowthNearlyTriplesForecast #USAugustNonfarmPayrollsDueToday #AdobeSharesFall3%OnCEOTransition

The PONS Bag from Unipcs is now worth nearly $10 million. He is currently occupying an insane $PONS position.
He initially invested only $67.7K in 10.9M PONS, but that bag now has a value of more than $9.99M. That is more than $9 million in unrealized profit from the initial entry, or roughly a return of 149 times.
The kind of on-chain trade that you don't often see is a bet of $67K turning into almost $10M. Additionally, he is still holding the entire bag, so the most interesting aspect right now is what happens if #pons continues to run.
$KAVA
$
#ZECHitsANewAllTimeHigh #BitcoinETFsBiggestDailyInflowSinceJanuary #RussiaUkraine72-hourCeasefire #USAugustJobGrowthNearlyTriplesForecast #USAugustAvgHourlyEarningsRise3.1%

Gold slides further on Tuesday after reversing from a more-than-three-month high last week.
Hawkish Fed expectations and rising Treasury yields keep the precious metal under pressure.
XAU/USD tests a key support zone as momentum shifts in favour of sellers.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its pullback from the more-than-three-month high touched last week and falls to a fresh two-week low on Tuesday. Rising expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes and fresh tensions in the Middle East remain the main drivers behind the latest leg lower. However, softer-than-expected US economic data help cushion the downside.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,373, down nearly 1.68% on the day after touching an intraday low of $4,326.
$NVDAB
$ETC

#LululemonTumbles20%OnWeakGuidance #USAugustJobGrowthNearlyTriplesForecast #USAugustAvgHourlyEarningsRise3.1% #BTCTops$80K #BitcoinEthereumHitMultiMonthHighs

The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 54.6 in August from 55.6 in July, missing the market forecast of 55.2. The ISM Prices Paid Index held steady at 71.1, below expectations of 72.0, while JOLTS Job Openings rose to 7.271 million in July from 7.182 million but fell short of the 7.3 million forecast.
Despite the data misses, expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as this month keep the US Dollar and Treasury yields supported. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 99.64, up 0.23% on the day. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield hovers around 4.76% after touching 4.80%, its highest level since January 2025.
A firmer US Dollar makes Dollar-denominated Gold more expensive for overseas buyers, while higher Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
Chair Kevin Warsh’s tough rhetoric on inflation at the Jackson Hole Symposium revived rate hike bets, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing around a 65% probability of a hike at the September 15-16 meeting, up from roughly 40% a week ago.
Fed Governor Michael Barr added to the hawkish tone on Tuesday, saying that “the persistence of inflation above target creates risks.” Barr said he favours steady rates if confident inflation is moderating but warned that “if inflation doesn’t moderate soon, it will be time for an interest rate hike.”
At the same time, rising Oil prices are adding to inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that major central banks may need to keep monetary policy tight. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil advances for a second consecutive day following the latest flare-up around the Strait of Hormuz.
Typically, inflation and geopolitical concerns support Gold. However, the market is currently reacting through the interest rate channel, and the metal tends to perform poorly when interest rates and Treasury yields rise.
Sellers are therefore likely to retain the upper hand in the near term, although upcoming US economic data and developments in the Middle East could trigger fresh volatility. Attention now shift to the ADP Employment Change report on Wednesday and the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.