Last night, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Class A shares plummeted 99.97% due to technical problems with the exchange. The bitcoin price, which was supposed to officially reach $70,000, fell due to risk linkage, and the crypto market was wailing. After the stock fell from $620,000 to $185, Sanshu saw some extreme speculators quickly traded 46 shares at the bottom of $185.
The New York Stock Exchange immediately intervened technically, and the stock returned to its original price range of $620,000 in a short period of time. The profit of this speculative player's account from the 46 shares traded directly reached nearly $30 million, with a price-earnings ratio of 3,300 times. Later, the New York Stock Exchange rolled back the data, and all transactions of the stock during that period were invalidated.

Today, the Internet went viral that a hacker stole all the money that a certain user had accumulated over the years, 100WU, even though he was always carrying his phone and computer. When I heard about it, my first reaction was that it was incredible, and my second reaction was that it was impossible. It is indeed very common for cold wallets of centralized exchanges to be stolen. Basically, large exchanges are always under technical attacks from hackers, but it is simply incomprehensible that personal accounts were stolen.
Sure enough, after some investigation, it was found that the user's money was not directly transferred by the hacker, but the account was taken over by the hacker, and the other party remotely traded through the method of token matching on the disk, and "moved" his coins in disguise. The reason for this incident was that the commonly used cookie plug-in on his browser was hijacked, and the hacker transferred the tokens through matching.

At 8 pm, the PCE data was released, which was consistent with the previous expected value, with the published data of 2.8%. Bitcoin followed the trend and the market touched 69,000 points. Later, DMM Bitcoin exchange was stolen with a value of 48 billion yen (the stolen amount was 4502.9 bitcoins), and the market collectively pulled back.
Let's talk about the PCE data first. The PCE data is one of the key indicators for measuring inflation. The data started from the highest position of 5.4% in February 2022, and slowly declined as the interest rate hike progressed. It has been stable at 2.8% for four consecutive months. Objectively, we believe that the current inflation remains at a relatively stable level. The unchanged data indirectly indicates that short-term and medium-term anti-inflation efforts have been hindered. So this data is not bad, but it is definitely not a long-term positive.

Today, a big man who has been in the industry for six years officially decided not to output technical and fundamental opinions, but to study metaphysics such as "Taoism" and "Buddhism" and give certain opinions based on the market. This is the fourth person in the industry who has publicly discussed metaphysics and coins, and he is also one of his closest friends.
The fundamental reason for making such a decision is that the difference between this round of bull market and the previous two rounds is too huge. Before this year, at least the cyclical trend of Bitcoin and the technical aspects of Bitcoin were more than 80% consistent. The trend market corresponds to the technical logic, which is the basic quality of the objective existence of a risk market, even if the intermediate transition market is disordered and chaotic.

Five months after the SEC approved the Bitcoin spot ETF, BlackRock successfully surpassed Grayscale to become the world's largest Bitcoin ETF holder. It is expected that the gap in holdings between institutions will continue to grow. Yesterday, the ETF had a net inflow of 642 coins, about 43 million US dollars, and the inflow slowed down temporarily.
The macro market is relatively cold in the short term. Except for some hawkish remarks made by a few people from the Federal Reserve last night, the market has not been very volatile. Regarding the recent comments on postponing interest rate cuts or maintaining interest rates, Sanshu believes that during the interest rate cut cycle, it is unnecessary to speculate too much on things that we cannot control and have a large impact. The most important thing about value investing is a sense of purpose, that is, once the interest rate cut cycle begins, the certainty of the interest rate cut will gradually increase over time until it is implemented.

Mt.Gox, the former world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, transferred 141,000 bitcoins today. As soon as the wallet changed, the market started to move downward. Affected by the potential panic selling, the market was relatively depressed throughout the day in Asia time.
Its former CEO later clarified that the purpose of this Bitcoin transfer is to prepare for user compensation at the end of October this year, and told us very clearly that the relevant assets will be changed hands before the compensation. Of course, all the changes during the day are wallet sorting, and we don’t know when the shipment will be made. From the perspective of cost-effectiveness, it will at least take until Bitcoin continues to reach new highs, after all, there is still half a year left.

Nate Geraci, president of TES, wrote on the X platform: I actually think that the approval of the ETH spot ETF is much more important than the approval of BTC. This is the complete surrender of the Americans to cryptocurrencies, and there is no turning back now. I highly agree with Uncle San in terms of views. The status, role and symbolic significance of BTC are unquestionable, but ETH is the most controversial token that the SEC considers to be a security in the early stage, and now it has directly defined the commodity attributes.
This means that all fully decentralized tokens have the possibility of listing spot ETFs. After ETH, BCH or LTC are expected to be the first to be discussed. Currently, the next controversial ETF product is SOL, but Sanshu believes that it is too early to discuss the spot ETF of a product that has been on the SEC lawsuit list before the social impact is completely eliminated.

The Federal Reserve rarely worked overtime because of the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF. At the last moment when everyone thought it would be postponed, it issued an announcement announcing the approval of 19B-4. Later, it will announce definitively when the product will be launched.
Many self-media outlets today are discussing the differences between the Bitcoin ETF at the time and the Ethereum ETF now. Overall, the differences in the external and internal environments are quite large, which has also led to the temporary inconsistency in performance after approval.
In the previous Bitcoin spot ETF approval process, the ETF was approved and the product was listed simultaneously. At that time, there was a strong call for interest rate cuts starting in March at the macro level, and after a long period of delay, most institutions prepared enough reserves to buy Bitcoin spot for liquidity redemption. The approval of Ethereum was mainly due to political issues, and the institutions were not fully prepared, and inflation was repeated at the macro level.

The most exciting moment of this month is coming. The latest news shows that the application status of the Ethereum spot ETF will be finally confirmed on the 23rd Eastern Time, that is, before 4 am on the 24th Beijing Time. At present, the possibility of 19B-4 being approved has risen to 90%. The market's focus is on whether the products can be approved for listing at the same time.
The news was accompanied by violent fluctuations in the short-term market. On-chain data showed that Ethereum's 24-hour trading volume decreased by 27%, but the contract position increased by 4%, and leverage liquidation of 43 million US dollars in the past 24 hours. After the news landed, if Ethereum follows the trend of the previous Bitcoin ETF approval, that is, it rises first and then falls, breaks through 4,000 points above, and then rapidly retreats 3,500 points, the 500-point range will accumulate nearly 2.1 billion US dollars.

The market has been full of twists and turns in the past week. After finally getting through the most primitive stage of negative decline and big correction, the market is preparing for a small cycle of peak shock to restart a new round of main upward trend of Bitcoin. The sudden Ethereum spot ETF has a high probability of breaking this stable situation. Ethereum has ushered in the largest single-day fluctuation in two years. After another short-term high shock, the intraday market began to follow a small cycle of negative decline.
From a technical point of view, there is no doubt that Bitcoin and Ethereum have broken through the reversal pressure position, and the next market should be no suspense. However, the market logic of the crypto market is often not considered from the simplest technical perspective. As of now, no matter how good the bullish indicators are, they are not as big as the long and short impact brought by the approval of the SEC tomorrow. All we can do is wait patiently.

The reversal point of 68,000 points in the early stage of Bitcoin broke through in an instant, without any pressure. Ethereum's daily line rose by 20%, the only two big positive lines in two years. This huge consumption of shorts provided enough motivation for the market bulls. Bitcoin's direct breakout has sounded the horn of a new round of new highs in advance.
The core reason why Ethereum can have such a strong performance is the rapid increase in expectations for the Ethereum spot ETF to pass on the 23rd. Before today, the expectation for the Ethereum spot ETF to pass was generally only 25%. After the SEC urged the exchange to provide relevant new materials in the morning, the expectation increased to 75%. If there are no accidents, there is basically no suspense about this passing.

People in the crypto market have a very hard time. If there is something bad in the macroeconomic situation, we have to pay for it! BN was fined more than 4 billion yuan, and the market crashed by 2,000 points; the missile of the emperor has not landed yet, and we have paid for his military expenses. Just now, the news of the Iranian plane crash came out in the morning, and the market was in turmoil. 110 million US dollars was liquidated.
The focus in the short term is whether there are human factors in this matter. If not, it is estimated that after a few declarations and a small shock, the matter will be over. Assuming that there is indeed some human tricks in it and it is finally found out, a new round of bloody storms in the risk market will be inevitable.

Yesterday, all Bitcoin ETF institutions realized data buying, and continued to be strong after the macro-economic situation improved the day before yesterday, with a total of 3,942 new Bitcoin holdings and a net inflow of US$257 million. This shows that the weak and negative trend of Bitcoin on the macro-level has completely ended, and the macro-risk concerns of OTC investors have disappeared. I have reason to believe that the previous 60,000-point Bitcoin bottom will be the starting point of a new round of main upward waves.
SOL is indeed as strong as ever in terms of trend. After touching the previous 118-point bottom twice, the market reversed directly and broke through the upper trend pressure level in one go. The transaction volume of Solana chain has continued to increase in recent times, and the projects on the chain have continued to flourish. As the fastest public chain at present, the market has also strongly called for it to be compared with Ethereum.

The market will not happen overnight, all news and data are to serve the market. Respecting the cycle and understanding the dog market are the basis for us to survive in this market for a long time.
Yesterday, Bitcoin broke through the downward trend line since early April with a surge of 5,000 points. Bitcoin's macro cycle has returned to the upward trend with 64,000 points as the trend support and 60,000 points as the cycle support. The short-term copycat market has stopped falling one after another, and it is expected to follow up with a new round of rebound after adjustment.
The CPI data is in line with expectations, which basically shows that inflation has been substantially contained in the short term. It can be foreseen that after the repeated data in March and April, the data next month will further boost expectations of future interest rate cuts. Also affected by the data, the interest rate swap market has accelerated its expectations for interest rate cuts, and objectively there is an expectation of the first interest rate cut as early as September.

Today I saw a set of unverified data, which roughly means that since the SEC approved the Bitcoin ETF, the funds flowing into the crypto market have exceeded 10 billion US dollars, but since then, the tokens unlocked by many project parties have also been worth more than 10 billion US dollars. Preliminary estimates show that this data is not much different. When all the ETF funds are on Bitcoin, the part that can overflow through the market is unlikely to be able to catch up with the unlocking of copycats.
So I have said before that the early stage of this bull market is more like the bull market of Bitcoin, and other supporting products have not even started yet. Today, I talked about the cycle with a friend, and she asked me if the bull market has passed. After a brief thought, I replied: Instead of thinking that the bull market has ended, it is more appropriate to think that the bull market has not yet started.

The result of bulls and bears calling each other idiots is that both sides lose money. Everyone is holding on desperately until one side admits defeat. This process is so satisfying for the dealer.
After four consecutive weeks of net outflows, the US ETF began to recover slightly last week, with a total inflow of 1,318 bitcoins, and the market's attention began to gradually rise. Currently, the global market holds a total of 949,756 bitcoins in the spot ETF, and the volume shows a cyclical upward trend.
From a macro perspective, this week is a big data week that connects the past and the future. The annual rate of US PPI will be released at 8:30 pm tomorrow, and Powell will give his views on the current economic situation again at 10 pm. The US CPI data for April will be released at 8:30 pm on Wednesday, and the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve will speak at 3 pm overnight. In the vacuum time window when interest rate hikes are terminated and interest rate cuts are discussed, the market itself has lost its self-leading ability, and the turning point of macro information will always make us hang in the balance.

The interest rate cut will come sooner or later, so let's give you an expectation in advance.
Last night, the macro data suddenly took a turn. The Federal Reserve once again emphasized the control of inflation and hinted in a hawkish manner that it did not rule out the possibility of another rate hike, which directly reversed the trend of starting a short-term annual rate cut. The big bears fell sharply in response, and the structural support level of 60,000 points is currently in jeopardy.
Many of you may have questions. From January to now, ETFs have been showing a relatively stable inflow over a long period of time. Except for Grayscale GBTC, there has been no large-scale capital outflow. Then, during the correction period after Bitcoin hit a high of 74,000 US dollars, the total amount of ETFs also maintained a relatively stable inflow. So how did the market fall?

The monster coins that have skyrocketed in the past two days are definitely a one-shot trend. They rise quickly and die quickly. The biggest attraction of garbage time is those sectors with extremely high control levels. Watch them quietly take off, then the leeks get on board, and then the dog dealers reap the profits. By the way, if the monster coins stop making trouble, will the copycat market start?
This is indeed the case from the historical perspective, but Uncle San also said a logic before. According to the current market value ratio of cottages, if the previous cottage market rises again, it will be too difficult to have a round of cottage season. Expectations are too high, and behind the cottages, there may be a round of "cottage festival".

TRB has recently become popular again, and it has tripled in a week. The discussion about it in major communities is extremely huge. A friend said that the technical logic of TRB is very strong. Every time it is pulled up, it is when no one in the market is interested. Suddenly, it will take off and wait for the market to generally recover and then turn downward with twists and turns, which will make you doubt your life.
I guess they were fooled by the short-term negative market. How can this operation be caused by strong technical logic? It is clear that the market has been thoroughly cleaned up, from 629 points to 41 points, and then after the overall environment has declined a little, there has been a wave of eye-catching behavior, starting a new round of madness. This kind of operation does not require technical analysis at all, and anyone can do it with a knife!