The market has been full of twists and turns in the past week. After finally getting through the most primitive stage of negative decline and big correction, the market is preparing for a small cycle of peak shock to restart a new round of main upward trend of Bitcoin. The sudden Ethereum spot ETF has a high probability of breaking this stable situation. Ethereum has ushered in the largest single-day fluctuation in two years. After another short-term high shock, the intraday market began to follow a small cycle of negative decline.

From a technical point of view, there is no doubt that Bitcoin and Ethereum have broken through the reversal pressure position, and the next market should be no suspense. However, the market logic of the crypto market is often not considered from the simplest technical perspective. As of now, no matter how good the bullish indicators are, they are not as big as the long and short impact brought by the approval of the SEC tomorrow. All we can do is wait patiently.

Today, a friend asked why the approval rate of Ethereum spot ETF was only 25% a week ago, but now it is over 75%. This is very interesting. It is still a policy issue!

The US election this year is in full swing. A few days ago, Trump said that he would support the development of the crypto market after his election. Although it was just talk, it did attract a lot of public support. The Biden team, which has always been cautious about the crypto market, was obviously unhappy about this and immediately notified all exchanges to change the documents in order to approve the ETF application in advance.

It is so magical that a mouth cannon almost brought about favorable policies. After the Biden team responded, Trump directly announced today that he supports cryptocurrency donations to help the election, pushing the short-term positive sentiment to the extreme. Regardless of who will be elected in the end, it is foreseeable that the short-term and medium-term bull market process has invisibly moved forward a big step.

So if there is a 75% chance of passing, will there be any unexpected problems tomorrow? I think the probability is not high. The actions of the SEC in the past two days are basically the same as before the Bitcoin spot ETF was passed! What we need to consider more is whether the Ethereum spot ETF product will be launched at the same time after the ETF application is passed.

I will not elaborate on the specific approval logic here. I will briefly describe the response strategies brought about by several possibilities. The first is to approve the application and launch the product. Considering the short-term selling pressure of Grayscale's 3 million ETH spot, after the good news comes out, there will be a small cycle of decline and then a long-term reversal will begin.

If the application is passed and the product is not launched temporarily, there will be enough time to digest the short-term profit-taking, and the downward range is not expected to be large, and the technical response strategy will be more accurate. If none of them are passed, even if it seems to be a small probability at present, if this really happens, Ethereum will definitely go back to where it went, there is no suspense.

Therefore, from an operational perspective, if the Ethereum that entered the market during this cycle has achieved a large-scale profit, it is okay to pocket some of it. In the short and medium term, I have no plans to change my Ethereum position. As expected at the beginning of the month, whether it passes this month or not, it is highly likely that it will pass and pull up in the future. Be friends with time and you will never go wrong.

When talking about Ethereum, Brother Sun is an unavoidable topic. You can say he is bad, but you cannot deny that he has a sharp vision!

Yesterday, the US Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 4,409 coins, about 307 million US dollars, and the leading buyer was the giant BlackRock. The recent continuous inflow, especially at the current high level, at least shows that institutions are optimistic about the long-term future. If you really don’t know how to grasp the short-term market, it is likely that you will not go wrong by following these institutions.

Tether has timely added 1 billion USDT issuance on Ethereum, and the market supply has visibly increased. It is difficult and tiring to play the short-term market. In the right cycle, you are afraid of encountering a violent market that is enough to affect your confidence, even if it is necessary.

BTC: Bitcoin broke through 68,000 points. The pressure turned into a defense line. Of course, in the short term, Bitcoin’s new high has become a relatively certain trend. The top amplitude is relatively large, which supports the defense point of spot. Continue to hold it patiently. After the short-term market has pulled up a wave, there is a necessary need for adjustment. For the time being, hold the currency above the defense position and wait and see.

ETH: The cost of ether has always been 1700 points. The latest round of replenishment of 3200 points directly replenished the downward trend and pulled it back. It is said that ether is very bad this year. Few people calculate that from the bottom, Ethereum and Bitcoin are about 4.5 times higher. Few people think that Bitcoin has more than 10 billion US dollars of ETF funds injected, while Ethereum does not. For the future market, I think we should first look at the short-term news fermentation, and then focus on the approval of the day after tomorrow, and prepare for both.

There is no news today. After the market surged, some profit-taking investors fled briefly, which led to a downward trend. There is nothing wrong with the logic. I just checked the liquidation map. Ethereum short positions are huge. Whether the market will go against human nature will be known tomorrow. The short-term market fluctuates violently. Do a good job of risk control. The new round of market trends will appear within the 24-hour volatility period after the results come out tomorrow. Wait.

SOL: It is moving towards the predetermined previous high. The trend is very strong. There is limited room for short-term market correction, and this wave will continue to reach new highs.

JTO: As the largest liquidity protocol on the SOL chain, the current bullish logic of the fundamentals is also certain, and it is one of the sectors that deserves strong attention in the short and medium term.

Other altcoins: sell at high prices. If the Ethereum ETF is approved on the 23rd, focus on the L2 sector. It will not be too late to enter after the positive news is confirmed to be passed.

Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! ​​​#比特币披萨节 #以太坊ETF批准预期 #PEPE创历史新高 #BTC突破7万大关 $BTC