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Bitcoin Experiences Biggest Q4 Drop Since 2018 with Nearly 22% Plummet
Bitcoin is set to close Q4 of 2025 with a loss of approximately 22%, marking its poorest performance since the 2018 crash. The flagship cryptocurrency typically posts gains in the fourth quarter; however, the current sharp decline indicates a fragile phase. The decline's structure is similar to 2018, with an 11.8% drop in Q1 followed by a nearly 30% rebound in Q2 and modest gains in Q3. The late-year breakdown suggests a shift in market behavior, with new capital struggling to replace earlier inflows. At present, Bitcoin is trading at around $89,000, down nearly 29% from its all-time high of $126,000 set in early October. Despite a nearly 6% gain over the past month, the cryptocurrency remains down about 7% on a yearly basis.
Bitcoin is set to close Q4 of 2025 with a loss of approximately 22%, marking its poorest performance since the 2018 crash. The flagship cryptocurrency typically posts gains in the fourth quarter; however, the current sharp decline indicates a fragile phase. The decline's structure is similar to 2018, with an 11.8% drop in Q1 followed by a nearly 30% rebound in Q2 and modest gains in Q3. The late-year breakdown suggests a shift in market behavior, with new capital struggling to replace earlier inflows. At present, Bitcoin is trading at around $89,000, down nearly 29% from its all-time high of $126,000 set in early October. Despite a nearly 6% gain over the past month, the cryptocurrency remains down about 7% on a yearly basis.
Tom Lee's Bitmine Accumulates Additional 98,852 ETH in One Week, Now Possesses 3.37% of Total Circulation
Bitmine Immersion Technologies, chaired by Thomas Lee of Fundstrat, has announced a significant increase in its Ethereum (ETH) holdings, now owning approximately 3.37% of the total circulating supply. The company's crypto assets, cash, and investments are valued around $13.2 billion, including a $32 million stake in Eightco Holdings. Bitmine added 98,852 ETH to its portfolio in the past week, making it the largest Ethereum treasury globally and the second-largest crypto treasury overall, behind only Michael Saylor's Strategy. Despite recent market volatility, Bitmine continues its accumulation strategy as Ethereum's price shows signs of recovery. The company's shares are now among the most actively traded on the U.S. stock market.
Bitmine Immersion Technologies, chaired by Thomas Lee of Fundstrat, has announced a significant increase in its Ethereum (ETH) holdings, now owning approximately 3.37% of the total circulating supply. The company's crypto assets, cash, and investments are valued around $13.2 billion, including a $32 million stake in Eightco Holdings. Bitmine added 98,852 ETH to its portfolio in the past week, making it the largest Ethereum treasury globally and the second-largest crypto treasury overall, behind only Michael Saylor's Strategy. Despite recent market volatility, Bitmine continues its accumulation strategy as Ethereum's price shows signs of recovery. The company's shares are now among the most actively traded on the U.S. stock market.
Legal Action Initiated by Terraform Labs Against Jump Trading for Alleged $1B Profits from Terra's Downfall
Terraform Labs is suing Jump Trading for its alleged covert support of the TerraUSD stablecoin, misrepresentation of its stability, and profiting from its collapse. The lawsuit seeks $4 billion from Jump Trading co-founder, William DiSomma, and Kanav Kariya, the president of its crypto-trading business. The case, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, Eastern Division, accuses Jump of unlawful profiting while investors suffered losses. It is alleged that Jump manipulated, concealed, and self-dealt within the Terraform Labs ecosystem, resulting in what is described as the largest collapse in crypto history. Jump denies the allegations, labeling them as a desperate attempt by Terraform Labs to shift blame for the crimes committed by its founder, Do Kwon.
Terraform Labs is suing Jump Trading for its alleged covert support of the TerraUSD stablecoin, misrepresentation of its stability, and profiting from its collapse. The lawsuit seeks $4 billion from Jump Trading co-founder, William DiSomma, and Kanav Kariya, the president of its crypto-trading business. The case, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, Eastern Division, accuses Jump of unlawful profiting while investors suffered losses. It is alleged that Jump manipulated, concealed, and self-dealt within the Terraform Labs ecosystem, resulting in what is described as the largest collapse in crypto history. Jump denies the allegations, labeling them as a desperate attempt by Terraform Labs to shift blame for the crimes committed by its founder, Do Kwon.
Despite a Tough Year, Bitcoin Maintains a 400% Increase Since its Low Point in the Cycle
Crypto markets have seen a drop this year, with Bitcoin down around 8%. Despite this, analysts point out that Bitcoin still showed a significant increase of 468% in the two years before this year, a much higher return than US stocks. They argue that this year merely saw a slight reduction in the excess returns Bitcoin had previously enjoyed. The current market situation has been compared to the COVID crash and other major market events, yet there are a number of positive factors including pro-crypto policy in the US and institutional adoption. Bitcoin continues to trend upwards on a yearly basis, with its price still over 400% higher than it was in December 2022.
Crypto markets have seen a drop this year, with Bitcoin down around 8%. Despite this, analysts point out that Bitcoin still showed a significant increase of 468% in the two years before this year, a much higher return than US stocks. They argue that this year merely saw a slight reduction in the excess returns Bitcoin had previously enjoyed. The current market situation has been compared to the COVID crash and other major market events, yet there are a number of positive factors including pro-crypto policy in the US and institutional adoption. Bitcoin continues to trend upwards on a yearly basis, with its price still over 400% higher than it was in December 2022.
What is the Expected Market Response to Today's $2.7B Bitcoin Options Expiration?
Approximately 31,000 Bitcoin options contracts, with a notional value of about $2.7 billion, are set to expire on Friday, Dec. 19. Despite the significant notional value, the event is not expected to greatly affect spot markets, which have been trending downwards due to factors such as Chinese Bitcoin mining crackdowns, delayed US crypto market regulations, and concerns over the Bank of Japan hiking rates. Alongside Bitcoin options, around 155,000 Ethereum contracts, with a notional value of $460 million, are also set to expire. The total notional value of the combined crypto options expiring is roughly $3.2 billion. The market continues to show signs of weakening with Bitcoin and Ether prices falling and total capitalization dropping below $3 trillion, marking its lowest level since April.
Approximately 31,000 Bitcoin options contracts, with a notional value of about $2.7 billion, are set to expire on Friday, Dec. 19. Despite the significant notional value, the event is not expected to greatly affect spot markets, which have been trending downwards due to factors such as Chinese Bitcoin mining crackdowns, delayed US crypto market regulations, and concerns over the Bank of Japan hiking rates. Alongside Bitcoin options, around 155,000 Ethereum contracts, with a notional value of $460 million, are also set to expire. The total notional value of the combined crypto options expiring is roughly $3.2 billion. The market continues to show signs of weakening with Bitcoin and Ether prices falling and total capitalization dropping below $3 trillion, marking its lowest level since April.
Unexpectedly Low US CPI Triggers Immediate Bitcoin Price Surge
Bitcoin's value saw a sharp increase following the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which showed lower figures than anticipated. Prior to the release, the market expected a highly volatile week due to key economic data releases in various countries. The US CPI for November was a notable figure, with predictions for the regular CPI at 3.1% and the Core CPI, excluding unstable sectors such as food and energy, at 3%. However, the actual figures were lower with the regular CPI at 2.7% and the Core at 2.6%. This lower inflation could potentially urge the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, aligning with Trump's 2026 goal of 1%. Consequently, Bitcoin, which was valued just above $87,000, experienced an immediate rise to approximately $88,500.
Bitcoin's value saw a sharp increase following the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which showed lower figures than anticipated. Prior to the release, the market expected a highly volatile week due to key economic data releases in various countries. The US CPI for November was a notable figure, with predictions for the regular CPI at 3.1% and the Core CPI, excluding unstable sectors such as food and energy, at 3%. However, the actual figures were lower with the regular CPI at 2.7% and the Core at 2.6%. This lower inflation could potentially urge the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, aligning with Trump's 2026 goal of 1%. Consequently, Bitcoin, which was valued just above $87,000, experienced an immediate rise to approximately $88,500.
In 2025, North Korea Pilfered More Than $2B in Cryptocurrency Despite a Decline in Certified Assaults: Analysis by Chainalysis
Chainalysis reports a significant increase in global cryptocurrency theft in 2025, with over $3.4B stolen between January and early December, marking it as one of the worst years for crypto-related crime. A substantial part of this was due to the Bybit incident, which accounted for roughly $1.5B. The year also saw a shift in losses, with personal wallet compromises rising from 7.3% in 2022 to 44% in 2024. However, 2025 saw a tilt back to centralized services due to the Bybit incident. Despite fewer incidents, these platforms accounted for 88% of the stolen value in Q1 2025. The year also saw North Korea's dominance as a threat actor, with DPRK-linked hackers stealing at least $2.02B in cryptocurrency, a 51% YoY increase.
Chainalysis reports a significant increase in global cryptocurrency theft in 2025, with over $3.4B stolen between January and early December, marking it as one of the worst years for crypto-related crime. A substantial part of this was due to the Bybit incident, which accounted for roughly $1.5B. The year also saw a shift in losses, with personal wallet compromises rising from 7.3% in 2022 to 44% in 2024. However, 2025 saw a tilt back to centralized services due to the Bybit incident. Despite fewer incidents, these platforms accounted for 88% of the stolen value in Q1 2025. The year also saw North Korea's dominance as a threat actor, with DPRK-linked hackers stealing at least $2.02B in cryptocurrency, a 51% YoY increase.
Bitcoin Faces Another Rejection at the $90K Mark, HYPE Declines Further by 10%: A Look into the Market
Despite a sudden surge in Bitcoin's price, it was quickly rejected, decreasing significantly. This decline came even after the US Federal Reserve cut key interest rates last week. After reaching $94,500, Bitcoin fell to $89,500 a day later, rebounded to $90,000 over the weekend, and then declined again to $85,500. While it has risen to the current $87,300, its market cap still struggles below $1.750 trillion. Meanwhile, the value of most larger-cap altcoins, such as ETH and XRP, continues to drop. Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE, has seen a significant decrease, losing almost 10% of its value in the last 24 hours and over 40% in the last month. Notwithstanding these fluctuations, the total crypto market cap has managed to maintain the $3 trillion level.
Despite a sudden surge in Bitcoin's price, it was quickly rejected, decreasing significantly. This decline came even after the US Federal Reserve cut key interest rates last week. After reaching $94,500, Bitcoin fell to $89,500 a day later, rebounded to $90,000 over the weekend, and then declined again to $85,500. While it has risen to the current $87,300, its market cap still struggles below $1.750 trillion. Meanwhile, the value of most larger-cap altcoins, such as ETH and XRP, continues to drop. Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE, has seen a significant decrease, losing almost 10% of its value in the last 24 hours and over 40% in the last month. Notwithstanding these fluctuations, the total crypto market cap has managed to maintain the $3 trillion level.
Ethereum Network Activity Hits Yearly Low: Understanding the Impact of Retail User Withdrawal
Ethereum's price has plunged below $2,850 due to a broad market downturn and the noticeable exit of retail users, pushing the network into a period of low activity. CryptoQuant's latest analysis shows the network activity at a one-year low, with active sending addresses dropping to around 170,000, indicating a lack of retail participation. This decline usually follows periods of volatility and price correction, which tend to shake the confidence of smaller participants. While this can limit short-term gains, it often signals a phase where larger, long-term participants quietly accumulate ETH. However, if address activity continues to fall or stagnate, Ethereum risks entering a deeper consolidation phase. Institutional investors are also showing caution, with significant outflows from Ethereum ETFs seen this week amid market uncertainty.
Ethereum's price has plunged below $2,850 due to a broad market downturn and the noticeable exit of retail users, pushing the network into a period of low activity. CryptoQuant's latest analysis shows the network activity at a one-year low, with active sending addresses dropping to around 170,000, indicating a lack of retail participation. This decline usually follows periods of volatility and price correction, which tend to shake the confidence of smaller participants. While this can limit short-term gains, it often signals a phase where larger, long-term participants quietly accumulate ETH. However, if address activity continues to fall or stagnate, Ethereum risks entering a deeper consolidation phase. Institutional investors are also showing caution, with significant outflows from Ethereum ETFs seen this week amid market uncertainty.
Bitcoin Hashrate Hits a Quarter Low Due to China's Intensified Mining Regulations
Bitcoin miners in China's Xinjiang province are unplugging their operations following a recent crackdown by Beijing, leading to around 400,000 mining machines going offline and causing a slump in hashrates. Analysts point to the crackdown as a key reason for the drop in Bitcoin's value, as selling pressure increases from deeper sources. China, which controls about 14% of global hash power, has seen an 8% drop in network hashrate. As a result, long-term holder selling has increased, and closed mining farms have been forced to sell Bitcoin reserves and equipment to cover losses. Meanwhile, Asian exchanges are showing consistent net spot selling, and the Bitcoin hashrate has dropped 10% from around 1,160 EH/s in October to approximately 1,045 EH/s in December. This decline is attributed to falling Bitcoin prices, increased regulatory pressure, and rising winter energy costs.
Bitcoin miners in China's Xinjiang province are unplugging their operations following a recent crackdown by Beijing, leading to around 400,000 mining machines going offline and causing a slump in hashrates. Analysts point to the crackdown as a key reason for the drop in Bitcoin's value, as selling pressure increases from deeper sources. China, which controls about 14% of global hash power, has seen an 8% drop in network hashrate. As a result, long-term holder selling has increased, and closed mining farms have been forced to sell Bitcoin reserves and equipment to cover losses. Meanwhile, Asian exchanges are showing consistent net spot selling, and the Bitcoin hashrate has dropped 10% from around 1,160 EH/s in October to approximately 1,045 EH/s in December. This decline is attributed to falling Bitcoin prices, increased regulatory pressure, and rising winter energy costs.
Structural Indicators Confirm Bitcoin (BTC) is in a Bearish Phase
Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be transitioning into a high-risk phase, with structural indicators reflecting a bearish turn. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. points to the Structure Shift composite indicator and the Bull-Bear Index, both suggesting increased downward pressure, particularly in the derivatives market. Bitcoin's price has dropped near the $85,000 support level, indicating a definitive shift to a bearish structure. Despite these negative indicators, a segment of whales and miners are resisting the trend, with data showing a significant accumulation of BTC in wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC. Meanwhile, the Miner Position Index shows miners are reducing selling pressure by sending fewer BTC to exchanges.
Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be transitioning into a high-risk phase, with structural indicators reflecting a bearish turn. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. points to the Structure Shift composite indicator and the Bull-Bear Index, both suggesting increased downward pressure, particularly in the derivatives market. Bitcoin's price has dropped near the $85,000 support level, indicating a definitive shift to a bearish structure. Despite these negative indicators, a segment of whales and miners are resisting the trend, with data showing a significant accumulation of BTC in wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC. Meanwhile, the Miner Position Index shows miners are reducing selling pressure by sending fewer BTC to exchanges.
Could Bitcoin Be Moving Into a Supercycle? Understanding Why This Cycle Is Unique
Bitcoin (BTC) may be transitioning into a "supercycle," breaking the standard four-year boom-and-bust pattern, according to new data highlighting key structural changes in the market. The data suggests a shift in the Bitcoin ecosystem, with institutional demand, driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs, and declining exchange reserves indicating more long-term holding. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) also points to controlled profit-taking rather than rampant selling. Macro conditions, including geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of future monetary easing, are contributing to Bitcoin's appeal as a scarce asset. However, the possibility of external shocks could still disrupt the supercycle. Analysts also believe Bitcoin is no longer strictly following its four-year cycle due to a lack of classic late-cycle signals and early selling. They propose that Bitcoin may be moving into a more mature, liquidity-driven phase, potentially extending the bull market beyond halving timeline expectations.
Bitcoin (BTC) may be transitioning into a "supercycle," breaking the standard four-year boom-and-bust pattern, according to new data highlighting key structural changes in the market. The data suggests a shift in the Bitcoin ecosystem, with institutional demand, driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs, and declining exchange reserves indicating more long-term holding. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) also points to controlled profit-taking rather than rampant selling. Macro conditions, including geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of future monetary easing, are contributing to Bitcoin's appeal as a scarce asset. However, the possibility of external shocks could still disrupt the supercycle. Analysts also believe Bitcoin is no longer strictly following its four-year cycle due to a lack of classic late-cycle signals and early selling. They propose that Bitcoin may be moving into a more mature, liquidity-driven phase, potentially extending the bull market beyond halving timeline expectations.
XRP ETFs Remain Strong, Outshining BTC and ETH Funds Even with Slowing Inflows
Over 30 days since the launch of the first US-based spot XRP ETF with 100% exposure, it continues to perform strongly, outperforming its BTC, ETH, and SOL counterparts. Canary Capital’s XRPC launched on November 13, breaking 2025 trading volume records with nearly $60 million and daily net inflows over $240 million. Although inflows have slowed, no day has seen net outflows, a feat not achieved by Bitcoin or Ethereum ETFs. Total inflows for XRP ETFs have reached over $1 billion. Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs have lost almost $1 billion and BTC funds have seen a $3 billion reduction. Despite high inflows for XRP ETFs, the underlying Ripple token's value has dropped, potentially due to the overall market crash and whales selling off almost 1.2 billion tokens in the past month.
Over 30 days since the launch of the first US-based spot XRP ETF with 100% exposure, it continues to perform strongly, outperforming its BTC, ETH, and SOL counterparts. Canary Capital’s XRPC launched on November 13, breaking 2025 trading volume records with nearly $60 million and daily net inflows over $240 million. Although inflows have slowed, no day has seen net outflows, a feat not achieved by Bitcoin or Ethereum ETFs. Total inflows for XRP ETFs have reached over $1 billion. Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs have lost almost $1 billion and BTC funds have seen a $3 billion reduction. Despite high inflows for XRP ETFs, the underlying Ripple token's value has dropped, potentially due to the overall market crash and whales selling off almost 1.2 billion tokens in the past month.
Critical Juncture for Ethereum: Will it Soar to $4,300 or Plummet to $1,400?
Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $2,900 after a 12% fall in the past week but remains above a key technical level. Crypto analyst StockTrader_Max noted that ETH is holding above its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near $2,940, suggesting a possible upward move towards $4,300. However, if ETH breaks below $2,630, the outlook weakens, and the structure would be considered invalid below $1,390. Meanwhile, some charts show ETH breaking out from a falling wedge on the longer-term 5-day chart, indicating potential upward moves. But not all outlooks are optimistic, with some predicting a fall to $2,000 or even $1,100. Despite this, large holders like BitMine Immersion Technologies are accumulating ETH, suggesting larger buyers are stepping in.
Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $2,900 after a 12% fall in the past week but remains above a key technical level. Crypto analyst StockTrader_Max noted that ETH is holding above its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near $2,940, suggesting a possible upward move towards $4,300. However, if ETH breaks below $2,630, the outlook weakens, and the structure would be considered invalid below $1,390. Meanwhile, some charts show ETH breaking out from a falling wedge on the longer-term 5-day chart, indicating potential upward moves. But not all outlooks are optimistic, with some predicting a fall to $2,000 or even $1,100. Despite this, large holders like BitMine Immersion Technologies are accumulating ETH, suggesting larger buyers are stepping in.
Experienced Analyst Discusses Reasons for Bitcoin's Static Performance
Bitcoin's lack of growth is due to a selling pressure that currently outweighs the buying demand, as explained by the Stock-to-Flow model founder, PlanB. This analyst attributes half of the selling pressure to investors traumatized by 2021, technical investors observing the relative strength index, and those expecting a bear market two years post-halving. The remaining 50% is buying pressure from investors looking at fundamentals, institutional, TradFi, and banks. Despite the bears winning the current battle, they haven't won the war. Bitcoin's recent 31% decline from its all-time high is not unusual and has been seen in previous cycles. Crypto entrepreneur Joe Consorti believes Bitcoin can go lower from here, but it's not his base case. Bloomberg Intelligence's senior commodity strategist, Mike McGlone, expects Bitcoin to fall back to $10,000.
Bitcoin's lack of growth is due to a selling pressure that currently outweighs the buying demand, as explained by the Stock-to-Flow model founder, PlanB. This analyst attributes half of the selling pressure to investors traumatized by 2021, technical investors observing the relative strength index, and those expecting a bear market two years post-halving. The remaining 50% is buying pressure from investors looking at fundamentals, institutional, TradFi, and banks. Despite the bears winning the current battle, they haven't won the war. Bitcoin's recent 31% decline from its all-time high is not unusual and has been seen in previous cycles. Crypto entrepreneur Joe Consorti believes Bitcoin can go lower from here, but it's not his base case. Bloomberg Intelligence's senior commodity strategist, Mike McGlone, expects Bitcoin to fall back to $10,000.
PancakeSwap and YZi Labs Introduce No-Fee Forecasting Market on BNB Chain
Decentralized exchange leader PancakeSwap and venture studio YZi Labs are co-launching Probable, a zero-fee prediction market platform on the BNB Chain. Probable promises to make on-chain predictions faster and more accessible, without platform fees or hidden charges. The platform will allow users to wager on a variety of events, such as cryptocurrency price movements, sports, and global events. All markets will be settled on-chain for transparency. Probable will rely on UMA's Optimistic Oracle for verifying real-world event outcomes, ensuring tamper-resistant results. This new platform joins a rapidly growing sector that is attracting significant attention and capital, with recent activity demonstrating increasing mainstream and institutional interest in prediction markets.
Decentralized exchange leader PancakeSwap and venture studio YZi Labs are co-launching Probable, a zero-fee prediction market platform on the BNB Chain. Probable promises to make on-chain predictions faster and more accessible, without platform fees or hidden charges. The platform will allow users to wager on a variety of events, such as cryptocurrency price movements, sports, and global events. All markets will be settled on-chain for transparency. Probable will rely on UMA's Optimistic Oracle for verifying real-world event outcomes, ensuring tamper-resistant results. This new platform joins a rapidly growing sector that is attracting significant attention and capital, with recent activity demonstrating increasing mainstream and institutional interest in prediction markets.
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USCryptoStakingTaxReview
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#USCryptoStakingTaxReview Stop the Double Tax on Staking! Big News for U.S. Crypto [USCryptoStakingTaxReview]
A critical bipartisan push in Congress is aiming to fix a major headache for crypto stakers: the double taxation problem.
🔍 The Current Pain Point: Why It's Unfair
Right now, the IRS treats your staking rewards as taxable income the moment you receive them. Here’s the unfair part: you also get taxed a second time as capital gains when you later sell them. This means you can face a huge tax bill even if the price of your rewards plummets before you ever sell or use them.
The Proposed Solution: Simple & Fair
A group of 18 U.S. Representatives is demanding the IRS change this rule before 2026. Their solution is straightforward and mirrors how other investments are taxed:
· Only tax staking rewards when you sell them.
· You would only pay tax on your actual profit (the sale price minus your cost basis), not on paper gains.
🏛️ The Bigger Picture: U.S. Competitiveness
This isn't just about saving money on taxes. Lawmakers argue that the current rule:
· Creates a tracking nightmare for stakers.
· Harms network security by discouraging participation in staking.
· Puts the U.S. at a disadvantage in the global digital asset landscape.
⚠️ Important Reminder: Current Rules Still Apply
Until an official change is made, the old rule is still the law. You must report your staking rewards as income in the year you receive them. Meticulous record-keeping is essential—track the date and USD value of every reward to establish your cost basis for the future sale.
🚀 What to Do & Watch For:
1. Keep perfect records of all your staking activity.
2. Stay informed on updates from the IRS and Congress regarding this proposal.
3. Understand that change is being seriously pushed at the highest levels.
Conclusion
The effort to end the double tax on crypto staking is gaining real political momentum. If successful, it would create a fairer, simpler system that encourages innovation and participation. While you must follow the current rules for now.
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