天龙八部-扫地僧
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天龙八部-扫地僧
2017年进圈 擅长大盘分析 现货布局 合约波段 指标分析技术教学 wb:加密扫地僧 币安邀请码:JMSDS2026
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Brothers, I have some questions I’d like to ask. If orders are stuck and can’t be resolved, if you can’t judge the market direction accurately, and if you can’t hit the exact entry points—then act quickly and scan the code to join the Tianlong Babu | Helmsman Building Masters group chat. You can also enter through the homepage chat room.
$BTC The only turning-point area in the market is now: the daily BOLL lower-band support around 62,800. At the moment, the price has been oscillating nearby with small fluctuations. Judging from long-term and mid-term indicators, the outlook looks bearish. But for the short term—on the 15-minute and 30-minute charts—the candles have been repeatedly ranging; the short-term indicators appear to be down, yet the position is prone to reversal, so it is in a state of being uncommitted.
Over the past more than a month, the market has been grinding around the support level. After it finishes grinding, it starts with a fast push upward, creating a rise. Everyone is actually worried about this: they’re worried the market will pull back and then continue up. This has been a more than one-month “insider-only” tactic used by the big players.
Now the most important thing is this: the broader index indicators are currently capable of decline, but they also have the conditions for the final “pullback-and-rally” followed by a heavy sell-off. After the pullback, it will be smashed (sold hard) and won’t go back to the 62–67 range to keep oscillating.
“Set in stone”: what’s in front of us is simple—either it drops now, or this week it will smash the market; or it may pull back again to 64,000–65,300, and next week it will smash again. No matter which outcome, none of them escapes a sell-off and a downtrend. So there’s no need to worry. Can’t a monk run away even if the temple can’t?
Finally, to say it plainly: this year there cannot be a bull market. At most, at the end of September or early October, the U.S. stock market will cooperate with the midterm election in November, leading to a choppy upward move. Then after BTC completes the weekly-level downtrend, it will rise again in a choppy fashion. But don’t be concerned—67,000 is still the ceiling. Even if this leg of the decline breaks below 57,800 and reaches the next level, 62,000–63,000 will be the ceiling. As for entering the spot market, in my personal view, it’s still too early.
For futures: if you’re on the short side, there’s nothing to worry about. This disgusting grinding of the price—something you might not even see twice in years. As long as the market starts to move, spring will come.
The above is my personal analysis and suggestions. Please refer to it with caution!
Over the past more than a month, the market has been grinding around the support level. After it finishes grinding, it starts with a fast push upward, creating a rise. Everyone is actually worried about this: they’re worried the market will pull back and then continue up. This has been a more than one-month “insider-only” tactic used by the big players.
Now the most important thing is this: the broader index indicators are currently capable of decline, but they also have the conditions for the final “pullback-and-rally” followed by a heavy sell-off. After the pullback, it will be smashed (sold hard) and won’t go back to the 62–67 range to keep oscillating.
“Set in stone”: what’s in front of us is simple—either it drops now, or this week it will smash the market; or it may pull back again to 64,000–65,300, and next week it will smash again. No matter which outcome, none of them escapes a sell-off and a downtrend. So there’s no need to worry. Can’t a monk run away even if the temple can’t?
Finally, to say it plainly: this year there cannot be a bull market. At most, at the end of September or early October, the U.S. stock market will cooperate with the midterm election in November, leading to a choppy upward move. Then after BTC completes the weekly-level downtrend, it will rise again in a choppy fashion. But don’t be concerned—67,000 is still the ceiling. Even if this leg of the decline breaks below 57,800 and reaches the next level, 62,000–63,000 will be the ceiling. As for entering the spot market, in my personal view, it’s still too early.
For futures: if you’re on the short side, there’s nothing to worry about. This disgusting grinding of the price—something you might not even see twice in years. As long as the market starts to move, spring will come.
The above is my personal analysis and suggestions. Please refer to it with caution!
In cases like this, where nothing has been followed through, please ask the relevant Federal Reserve personnel to say less—it's coming off as too unprofessional!
It’s just like when we were kids, fighting with the neighbor village next door—they made some tough threats after losing, and then it all went nowhere!
🤭🤭🤭
It’s just like when we were kids, fighting with the neighbor village next door—they made some tough threats after losing, and then it all went nowhere!
🤭🤭🤭
$BTC Last Friday, I analyzed and made predictions about the broad market. 65300 must inevitably drop to 64000—it’s already there. The 62200–64000 range will definitely keep “rubbing” (sideways churning). When it comes to the three types of upward-move scenarios, the final outcome of all three is a cyclical downtrend.
67500 is the watershed. This level cannot be broken through, so as seen from July 1 to now, for the broad market overall, it’s essentially range-bound “surging-late” action to release indicator space. People who understand it all know this: the grinding of the market is not meant to rise—it’s because liquidity is low, driven by the fact that shorts dominated from late June to early July. But a bear market is still a bear market. In the end, the main players still have to sell off, smash the bids, and drive the market into a downward trend.
On the weekly chart, the KDJ either: falls from around 67000 down to the bend/trace at 62200, then continues upward to top out, then turns back into a downward trend; or else it turns back right now and forms a dead cross to enter a downward trend. There’s no other possibility.
Firmly: the 65300–67000 points are the selling zone. The market is going to follow a downward trend.
67500 is the watershed. This level cannot be broken through, so as seen from July 1 to now, for the broad market overall, it’s essentially range-bound “surging-late” action to release indicator space. People who understand it all know this: the grinding of the market is not meant to rise—it’s because liquidity is low, driven by the fact that shorts dominated from late June to early July. But a bear market is still a bear market. In the end, the main players still have to sell off, smash the bids, and drive the market into a downward trend.
On the weekly chart, the KDJ either: falls from around 67000 down to the bend/trace at 62200, then continues upward to top out, then turns back into a downward trend; or else it turns back right now and forms a dead cross to enter a downward trend. There’s no other possibility.
Firmly: the 65300–67000 points are the selling zone. The market is going to follow a downward trend.
天龙八部-扫地僧
·
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【BTC Market Analysis】
The market last surged to 67,000, then fell to 62,200, and then rebounded from the bottom, pulling back to around 65,300
65,300 is the 12-hour EMA resistance level, the Bollinger upper band pressure point, and also the candlestick pressure zone. The EMA extreme resistance level and the daily upper band are both around 66,200
Meanwhile, the weekly KDJ: when it is at 67,000, the level is around 31, and when it is at 65,300, it is around 70. The market is in a range-bound “gradual rise” pattern, pushing KDJ to the high zone. Although MACD has a golden cross, it is still far below the zero line. Also, over the past 6 weeks, 5 of them have been releasing bullish energy
From this, it can be seen that: the market will not go into a bull run, and the broader market remains in range-bound “gradual rise.” What’s in front of us now is that KDJ is at the 70 level. Combined with the current 12-hour and daily indicators, the market can only show three possible scenarios
Before determining the market’s direction, the only uncertain factor is 65,300 and 66,200
Both are strong resistance zones. No matter which level is reached, the market will pull back. The first scenario is a pullback to around 64,000, then continuing to “rub” along the 12-hour Bollinger middle-to-upper band, followed by another rise to around 67,200, and then a further smash-down. This is the most extreme case
The second scenario is the market pulls back and drops to around 62,200, then rebounds back to 65,300 or 66,200 and gets smashed down again
The third scenario is the market pulls back and drops to around 62,200, then rebounds to around 64,000, and then gets smashed down again
A common feature of all three scenarios is that they will form resistance at 65,300. At the extreme, it will fall from the 66,200 resistance level. The only difference is whether the downside point is 64,000 or 62,200
As for the final outcome: the broader market must be smashed down. No matter how it grinds, it’s going to smash down to $BTC #指标
The market last surged to 67,000, then fell to 62,200, and then rebounded from the bottom, pulling back to around 65,300
65,300 is the 12-hour EMA resistance level, the Bollinger upper band pressure point, and also the candlestick pressure zone. The EMA extreme resistance level and the daily upper band are both around 66,200
Meanwhile, the weekly KDJ: when it is at 67,000, the level is around 31, and when it is at 65,300, it is around 70. The market is in a range-bound “gradual rise” pattern, pushing KDJ to the high zone. Although MACD has a golden cross, it is still far below the zero line. Also, over the past 6 weeks, 5 of them have been releasing bullish energy
From this, it can be seen that: the market will not go into a bull run, and the broader market remains in range-bound “gradual rise.” What’s in front of us now is that KDJ is at the 70 level. Combined with the current 12-hour and daily indicators, the market can only show three possible scenarios
Before determining the market’s direction, the only uncertain factor is 65,300 and 66,200
Both are strong resistance zones. No matter which level is reached, the market will pull back. The first scenario is a pullback to around 64,000, then continuing to “rub” along the 12-hour Bollinger middle-to-upper band, followed by another rise to around 67,200, and then a further smash-down. This is the most extreme case
The second scenario is the market pulls back and drops to around 62,200, then rebounds back to 65,300 or 66,200 and gets smashed down again
The third scenario is the market pulls back and drops to around 62,200, then rebounds to around 64,000, and then gets smashed down again
A common feature of all three scenarios is that they will form resistance at 65,300. At the extreme, it will fall from the 66,200 resistance level. The only difference is whether the downside point is 64,000 or 62,200
As for the final outcome: the broader market must be smashed down. No matter how it grinds, it’s going to smash down to $BTC #指标
【BTC Market Analysis】
The market last surged to 67,000, then fell to 62,200, and then rebounded from the bottom, pulling back to around 65,300
65,300 is the 12-hour EMA resistance level, the Bollinger upper band pressure point, and also the candlestick pressure zone. The EMA extreme resistance level and the daily upper band are both around 66,200
Meanwhile, the weekly KDJ: when it is at 67,000, the level is around 31, and when it is at 65,300, it is around 70. The market is in a range-bound “gradual rise” pattern, pushing KDJ to the high zone. Although MACD has a golden cross, it is still far below the zero line. Also, over the past 6 weeks, 5 of them have been releasing bullish energy
From this, it can be seen that: the market will not go into a bull run, and the broader market remains in range-bound “gradual rise.” What’s in front of us now is that KDJ is at the 70 level. Combined with the current 12-hour and daily indicators, the market can only show three possible scenarios
Before determining the market’s direction, the only uncertain factor is 65,300 and 66,200
Both are strong resistance zones. No matter which level is reached, the market will pull back. The first scenario is a pullback to around 64,000, then continuing to “rub” along the 12-hour Bollinger middle-to-upper band, followed by another rise to around 67,200, and then a further smash-down. This is the most extreme case
The second scenario is the market pulls back and drops to around 62,200, then rebounds back to 65,300 or 66,200 and gets smashed down again
The third scenario is the market pulls back and drops to around 62,200, then rebounds to around 64,000, and then gets smashed down again
A common feature of all three scenarios is that they will form resistance at 65,300. At the extreme, it will fall from the 66,200 resistance level. The only difference is whether the downside point is 64,000 or 62,200
As for the final outcome: the broader market must be smashed down. No matter how it grinds, it’s going to smash down to $BTC #指标
The market last surged to 67,000, then fell to 62,200, and then rebounded from the bottom, pulling back to around 65,300
65,300 is the 12-hour EMA resistance level, the Bollinger upper band pressure point, and also the candlestick pressure zone. The EMA extreme resistance level and the daily upper band are both around 66,200
Meanwhile, the weekly KDJ: when it is at 67,000, the level is around 31, and when it is at 65,300, it is around 70. The market is in a range-bound “gradual rise” pattern, pushing KDJ to the high zone. Although MACD has a golden cross, it is still far below the zero line. Also, over the past 6 weeks, 5 of them have been releasing bullish energy
From this, it can be seen that: the market will not go into a bull run, and the broader market remains in range-bound “gradual rise.” What’s in front of us now is that KDJ is at the 70 level. Combined with the current 12-hour and daily indicators, the market can only show three possible scenarios
Before determining the market’s direction, the only uncertain factor is 65,300 and 66,200
Both are strong resistance zones. No matter which level is reached, the market will pull back. The first scenario is a pullback to around 64,000, then continuing to “rub” along the 12-hour Bollinger middle-to-upper band, followed by another rise to around 67,200, and then a further smash-down. This is the most extreme case
The second scenario is the market pulls back and drops to around 62,200, then rebounds back to 65,300 or 66,200 and gets smashed down again
The third scenario is the market pulls back and drops to around 62,200, then rebounds to around 64,000, and then gets smashed down again
A common feature of all three scenarios is that they will form resistance at 65,300. At the extreme, it will fall from the 66,200 resistance level. The only difference is whether the downside point is 64,000 or 62,200
As for the final outcome: the broader market must be smashed down. No matter how it grinds, it’s going to smash down to $BTC #指标
$BTC This kind of market, suitable for beginners—go long low and short high without thinking too much, with a stop loss. You can take a good bite of the profit, because the stop loss you place is small and the profit you can take is bigger. Anyone who has survived trading perpetuals at least once can, when facing this kind of market, feel a bit passive.
Everyone will consider the direction indicated by long-term and market-wide indicators, because controlling the overall order book is the main way to decide whether you can survive.
Now, this kind of market action is grinding people down and it’s annoying, but the worst part is that the big player (the “whale”) especially likes to take advantage when the ultra-short-term and short-term indicators show a bullish trend. With a quick pump, they can grind down and erase the downward move that took half a day or even a whole day of consolidation and decline. That’s really uncomfortable. Liquidity is low, and for them, playing BTC is as carefree as playing a knockoff—like walking a trained monkey. Annoying, isn’t it?
For the crypto market, this situation is only temporary. The market will move sooner or later—look forward to better days in the future.
Everyone will consider the direction indicated by long-term and market-wide indicators, because controlling the overall order book is the main way to decide whether you can survive.
Now, this kind of market action is grinding people down and it’s annoying, but the worst part is that the big player (the “whale”) especially likes to take advantage when the ultra-short-term and short-term indicators show a bullish trend. With a quick pump, they can grind down and erase the downward move that took half a day or even a whole day of consolidation and decline. That’s really uncomfortable. Liquidity is low, and for them, playing BTC is as carefree as playing a knockoff—like walking a trained monkey. Annoying, isn’t it?
For the crypto market, this situation is only temporary. The market will move sooner or later—look forward to better days in the future.
At 9:00 a.m., the South Korean KOSPI index saw an intraday surge of 17%. It is now at 6,545.15 points. BTC quickly surged to 6,545, then started to pull back and fall. Both the gain and loss levels have broken through the range of last night’s high-level consolidation.
Currently, the medium-term indicators are bearish. The requirements aren’t high—by before 12:00 p.m., get the market moving, and don’t let it grind too much on the very short term.
$BTC
#韩股KOSPI创纪录涨15%
Currently, the medium-term indicators are bearish. The requirements aren’t high—by before 12:00 p.m., get the market moving, and don’t let it grind too much on the very short term.
$BTC
#韩股KOSPI创纪录涨15%
Before posting $BTC , I want to use a classic catchphrase by Zhang Zuolin to express my attitude toward the current market: Ma-la-ge-ba-zi
The month is almost over, but aside from the 6 consecutive bullish days from July 1 to July 7, the rest of the trend is simply Old Wang next door acting like a thug—no honor, making the market sick. And anything with even a little fresh blood gets eaten clean
As for those of us retail traders who survived by being harvested layer by layer in the crypto world, we all have a set of successful analytical approach + an operating system
But facing this grinding mill, honestly, I’m really tired of it. Instead, during this period, the newbies are going long at high and low at low—casually messing around—and their returns are maximized
64700 and 63700 are strong support points. Only after the second drop do they break down and turn into a pressure level. And as for this kind of pressure level, the market just drags along and bumps through it slowly—absolutely hilarious
I’ve always believed: when everyone enjoys these kinds of swings in the moment, danger is already on its way
July was truly unforgettable. Quick—get lost already—I don’t want to linger even a second. I want to jump straight into August 😂
But I firmly believe: there will definitely be a wave of a dump, blood-washing this market!
The month is almost over, but aside from the 6 consecutive bullish days from July 1 to July 7, the rest of the trend is simply Old Wang next door acting like a thug—no honor, making the market sick. And anything with even a little fresh blood gets eaten clean
As for those of us retail traders who survived by being harvested layer by layer in the crypto world, we all have a set of successful analytical approach + an operating system
But facing this grinding mill, honestly, I’m really tired of it. Instead, during this period, the newbies are going long at high and low at low—casually messing around—and their returns are maximized
64700 and 63700 are strong support points. Only after the second drop do they break down and turn into a pressure level. And as for this kind of pressure level, the market just drags along and bumps through it slowly—absolutely hilarious
I’ve always believed: when everyone enjoys these kinds of swings in the moment, danger is already on its way
July was truly unforgettable. Quick—get lost already—I don’t want to linger even a second. I want to jump straight into August 😂
But I firmly believe: there will definitely be a wave of a dump, blood-washing this market!
$BTC The Federal Reserve rate decision and the end of Powell’s remarks came out—looks like the market is basically stable now.
I fell asleep and woke up to find it went up again. Then it came back to frequent friction—slow, annoying, dragging things out. Is this a game?
Purely put, the big players treat retail investors like monkeys, 🤭
No way around it—the fox’s tail will eventually show, and then it’s going to crash,
dump the market
I fell asleep and woke up to find it went up again. Then it came back to frequent friction—slow, annoying, dragging things out. Is this a game?
Purely put, the big players treat retail investors like monkeys, 🤭
No way around it—the fox’s tail will eventually show, and then it’s going to crash,
dump the market
$BTC When the daily Bollinger three lines are flat and parallel, the market is falling, and basically it cannot be penetrated; there will certainly be a pullback. So yesterday’s pullback and upward move is inevitable. However, the rise was too large—which, given the grinding-plate pattern characteristics for July, is also understandable.
But if you want the market to be pushed down again, then it’s necessary that, after the first pullback upward, the short- and medium-term indicators get repaired. Only then will there be a chance for another push down—possibly even a third push down that breaks lower.
Let me put it bluntly: right now there is only one strong support level—62,100. If it breaks and holds below it, the grinding-plate phase will be over, and we’ll get to have some comfortable days.
By the end of this month or early next month, there will definitely be a stretch of a downward trend. This year won’t have a bull market. In October, the U.S. stock market may rise in conjunction with the midterm election impact in November. Crypto might only follow up with a little increase. But for the full year, it’s still down. This year is destined to be a bear market—so don’t talk to me about a bull market.
But if you want the market to be pushed down again, then it’s necessary that, after the first pullback upward, the short- and medium-term indicators get repaired. Only then will there be a chance for another push down—possibly even a third push down that breaks lower.
Let me put it bluntly: right now there is only one strong support level—62,100. If it breaks and holds below it, the grinding-plate phase will be over, and we’ll get to have some comfortable days.
By the end of this month or early next month, there will definitely be a stretch of a downward trend. This year won’t have a bull market. In October, the U.S. stock market may rise in conjunction with the midterm election impact in November. Crypto might only follow up with a little increase. But for the full year, it’s still down. This year is destined to be a bear market—so don’t talk to me about a bull market.
$BTC The bear market is a bear market. In June, the proportion of short positions was high, and it could only be like the six consecutive rising days on July 1st—liquidating shorts, then luring more longs. But something went wrong in the luring-long phase: retail investors did not take the bait, so the main force could only keep oscillating with a slight rise, setting traps step by step. It is impossible to form a bullish uptrend.
For the market movement in the 61300-67000 range, the oscillation lasted through most of July. This gap of less than 6000 points can be stretched over time by the main force to wear everyone down mentally. Whether it was the earlier oscillating rise or the recent oscillating decline, you can notice that the main force often uses candlesticks to spill out some movement to confuse retail investors.
Not to mention the oscillating rise on July 1st; take the recent oscillating decline from 67000. It had only just started the 4th wave. On the surface, it dropped from 67000 to 62600, but if you look at the difference between the oscillation highs and lows, it is obvious that this is just grinding the market. Whether it is low liquidity or a lure-long move, in any case, before a downward sell-off trend starts, this kind of grinding will make retail investors extremely panicked.
I’ll say it again: whether you trade swings or follow trends, retail investors have it hard.
The more it grinds, the lower the liquidity will be. Under the global economic slowdown and recession, U.S. stocks need to be sold off appropriately before October. What right does the crypto market have to start a bull run?
A bear market is a bear market. Don’t lose your direction.
For the market movement in the 61300-67000 range, the oscillation lasted through most of July. This gap of less than 6000 points can be stretched over time by the main force to wear everyone down mentally. Whether it was the earlier oscillating rise or the recent oscillating decline, you can notice that the main force often uses candlesticks to spill out some movement to confuse retail investors.
Not to mention the oscillating rise on July 1st; take the recent oscillating decline from 67000. It had only just started the 4th wave. On the surface, it dropped from 67000 to 62600, but if you look at the difference between the oscillation highs and lows, it is obvious that this is just grinding the market. Whether it is low liquidity or a lure-long move, in any case, before a downward sell-off trend starts, this kind of grinding will make retail investors extremely panicked.
I’ll say it again: whether you trade swings or follow trends, retail investors have it hard.
The more it grinds, the lower the liquidity will be. Under the global economic slowdown and recession, U.S. stocks need to be sold off appropriately before October. What right does the crypto market have to start a bull run?
A bear market is a bear market. Don’t lose your direction.
Verified
At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on the 30th, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its interest-rate decision. Most importantly, we hope that what Fed Chair Waller says next will help drive market volatility and get things moving—stop just stalling, already
#美联储利率决议
#美联储利率决议
Daily Boll support is at 62,300. Yesterday’s price action stopped falling around 62,600 and began a pullback. In fact, this is also a support point that covers a dense area during this month’s sideways-to-slightly-upward consolidation. 63,700, 64,100, and 64,600 are resistance levels, and 64,600 is the strongest.
Last night the market surged to 64,100. Judging by the whole chart, I personally think that was the highest “overshoot” point. After that, the market still needs to range and repair indicators within 62,400–63,700 (with the overshoot at 64,100).
But the reality is that the pullback still has slightly stronger force. It reached the 64,600 resistance level, and right around there the 1-hour EMA dual-track resistance is near 64,500. Even though we knew there would be a pullback, the magnitude exceeded expectations.
There’s no helping it. Since the start of this month, the sideways upward move broke out with the six consecutive bullish days from July 1 to July 7. After that, the market was mostly sideways and drifting slightly higher, forming many support levels. Therefore, before dropping, it also needs to slowly attack and break through those supports one by one. A grinding, plate-like consolidation is very normal. However, as long as those levels break, once 62,100 is broken, the following price action won’t drag on like this—so slow and messy.
The market hasn’t moved very cleanly. Recently the path has been 670–646–657–636–657–626–646. The stop-falling pullback supports are at 646, 636, and 626. The downside pressure above is at 670, 657, 657, and 646 (current).
It can be seen that each time the market drops by about 1,000 points, the pullback rebound levels appear twice at 657. This kind of oscillatory downtrend has the feel of a “grinding” pattern—it’s really uncomfortable. Especially for short-side players trading a trend, it’s very hard to endure and grinds your mindset. For swing traders, it’s also unpleasant: if you don’t get in at the right level, you have to run; and sometimes even if your stop-loss order isn’t placed well, you get stopped out anyway.
But fortunately, there is currently only one major strong support point—around 62,100. Once this level is broken, the market should move forward smoothly; it won’t be so grinding anymore.
$BTC
Last night the market surged to 64,100. Judging by the whole chart, I personally think that was the highest “overshoot” point. After that, the market still needs to range and repair indicators within 62,400–63,700 (with the overshoot at 64,100).
But the reality is that the pullback still has slightly stronger force. It reached the 64,600 resistance level, and right around there the 1-hour EMA dual-track resistance is near 64,500. Even though we knew there would be a pullback, the magnitude exceeded expectations.
There’s no helping it. Since the start of this month, the sideways upward move broke out with the six consecutive bullish days from July 1 to July 7. After that, the market was mostly sideways and drifting slightly higher, forming many support levels. Therefore, before dropping, it also needs to slowly attack and break through those supports one by one. A grinding, plate-like consolidation is very normal. However, as long as those levels break, once 62,100 is broken, the following price action won’t drag on like this—so slow and messy.
The market hasn’t moved very cleanly. Recently the path has been 670–646–657–636–657–626–646. The stop-falling pullback supports are at 646, 636, and 626. The downside pressure above is at 670, 657, 657, and 646 (current).
It can be seen that each time the market drops by about 1,000 points, the pullback rebound levels appear twice at 657. This kind of oscillatory downtrend has the feel of a “grinding” pattern—it’s really uncomfortable. Especially for short-side players trading a trend, it’s very hard to endure and grinds your mindset. For swing traders, it’s also unpleasant: if you don’t get in at the right level, you have to run; and sometimes even if your stop-loss order isn’t placed well, you get stopped out anyway.
But fortunately, there is currently only one major strong support point—around 62,100. Once this level is broken, the market should move forward smoothly; it won’t be so grinding anymore.
$BTC
$BTC #指标
On the daily chart, the BOLL three lines are level. The lower band support is around 62,400.
On the 4-hour chart: support below the candlesticks at 61,800–62,500; resistance above at 63,700 (overflow to 74,100).
Price action will range and trade within 62,400–63,700, releasing indicator space—that is, it will be a consolidation/sideways range.
Indicators will be “repaired,” and later there will still be a decline.
The only strong support right now—i.e., the range within this month’s slight upward consolidation—is 61,300–61,600–61,800–62,500, the range where the bottom is moving slightly upward. In my personal view, if 62,100 breaks successfully, then below that the price will inevitably cascade down (a waterfall drop) to around 58,000. And if it breaks further, it will make new lows.
On the daily chart, the BOLL three lines are level. The lower band support is around 62,400.
On the 4-hour chart: support below the candlesticks at 61,800–62,500; resistance above at 63,700 (overflow to 74,100).
Price action will range and trade within 62,400–63,700, releasing indicator space—that is, it will be a consolidation/sideways range.
Indicators will be “repaired,” and later there will still be a decline.
The only strong support right now—i.e., the range within this month’s slight upward consolidation—is 61,300–61,600–61,800–62,500, the range where the bottom is moving slightly upward. In my personal view, if 62,100 breaks successfully, then below that the price will inevitably cascade down (a waterfall drop) to around 58,000. And if it breaks further, it will make new lows.
$BTC Volatility up cycle is over. Now it’s a volatility down phase—will it move just like the volatility up cycle at the beginning of the month? Impossible. The only support is around 621. Once that breaks, you’ll face a wave of heavy selling!
In a downtrend, it’s impossible to move as slowly as a volatility up trend. It’s more like quickly smashing down, then consolidating around the bottom to form the base content.
Actually, I’ve never believed that 57700 is the absolute low. By late July to early August, this level will definitely be broken.
In a downtrend, it’s impossible to move as slowly as a volatility up trend. It’s more like quickly smashing down, then consolidating around the bottom to form the base content.
Actually, I’ve never believed that 57700 is the absolute low. By late July to early August, this level will definitely be broken.
天龙八部-扫地僧
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$BTC broke through the 63700 support; the gate formed successfully. The choppy downward “head” pattern stabilized. Then the selling pressure could naturally follow through—smooth as it comes. At the start of the month, there was sideways movement with a slight rise as it ground forward; when the drop comes, the sell-off is bound to be seamless.
Stay calm and don’t panic! Good times are on the way.
Stay calm and don’t panic! Good times are on the way.
Partly True
Recently, BTC’s price action has been constantly influenced by the U.S. stock market—both up and down have been driven along with it. The S&P 500 index is also right at the edge of a “cliff,” having broken down. Over the past few days, the U.S. stock market has continued to report a series of positive headlines.
As we said back in April, the U.S. stock market would trade in high-range volatility as a way of declining, not a crash. That indeed has been the case. But for the midterm election in November, whether the market will continue to trade sideways as it declines, or whether the sideways-to-down move will overshoot into a deeper drop—during October, if we stop the decline and then rise again in volatility to coincide with the election, either scenario is possible.
At the end of July and the beginning of August, the U.S. stock market kept rallying higher. I’m not really optimistic about this phase. When the market rallies, the U.S. stocks don’t show any elasticity. Institutions once again buy back huge amounts of shares to push prices up. In the end, by the time of the November midterm election, retail investors choose to sell early, and the ones who lose are the institutions.
So now, selling some in advance in an appropriate amount, and then going back to trade in volatile rallies to accommodate the election, is the wisest choice. It reduces the risk from institutions’ massive holdings, helps prevent a collapse in the U.S. stock market, and also limits the further expansion of the impact of the AI bubble—ultimately, it preserves confidence in the continued strong rollout of AI.
The AI bubble can be used during a period of choppy decline or a period of excessive volatility-driven drop. Time is the best tool to burn down the bubble. The longer the cycle, the more the bubble’s impact will be diluted, making the U.S. stock market’s AI theme series more resilient.
A recent series of positive news about AI suggests that the U.S. stock market is about to start a wave of a downward trend. Take profit appropriately. Late September and early October are when the rally truly begins.
#美股2026
As we said back in April, the U.S. stock market would trade in high-range volatility as a way of declining, not a crash. That indeed has been the case. But for the midterm election in November, whether the market will continue to trade sideways as it declines, or whether the sideways-to-down move will overshoot into a deeper drop—during October, if we stop the decline and then rise again in volatility to coincide with the election, either scenario is possible.
At the end of July and the beginning of August, the U.S. stock market kept rallying higher. I’m not really optimistic about this phase. When the market rallies, the U.S. stocks don’t show any elasticity. Institutions once again buy back huge amounts of shares to push prices up. In the end, by the time of the November midterm election, retail investors choose to sell early, and the ones who lose are the institutions.
So now, selling some in advance in an appropriate amount, and then going back to trade in volatile rallies to accommodate the election, is the wisest choice. It reduces the risk from institutions’ massive holdings, helps prevent a collapse in the U.S. stock market, and also limits the further expansion of the impact of the AI bubble—ultimately, it preserves confidence in the continued strong rollout of AI.
The AI bubble can be used during a period of choppy decline or a period of excessive volatility-driven drop. Time is the best tool to burn down the bubble. The longer the cycle, the more the bubble’s impact will be diluted, making the U.S. stock market’s AI theme series more resilient.
A recent series of positive news about AI suggests that the U.S. stock market is about to start a wave of a downward trend. Take profit appropriately. Late September and early October are when the rally truly begins.
#美股2026
$BTC broke through the 63700 support; the gate formed successfully. The choppy downward “head” pattern stabilized. Then the selling pressure could naturally follow through—smooth as it comes. At the start of the month, there was sideways movement with a slight rise as it ground forward; when the drop comes, the sell-off is bound to be seamless.
Stay calm and don’t panic! Good times are on the way.
Stay calm and don’t panic! Good times are on the way.
天龙八部-扫地僧
·
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$BTC BTC Weekly Market Analysis 7/27
From 7/1 until today, the market has been following a sideways-to-uptrend pattern.
And above there is a dividing line at 67,500.
Below, the first line of defense is at the screen position 63,700.
At this point, institutions will definitely create content to lure longs (诱多).
For example, the 653 K-line and the hourly EMA support at 646, the 4-hour Bollinger lower band support.
The 637 K-line and the 4-hour EMA support.
For the market to fall, the prerequisite is that some of the overhead pressure zones are shaken down through during a sideways decline; once the top is exposed, then a rapid selloff is inevitable afterward.
By the end of July, it’s almost early August. For the market’s cyclical pattern, it means the market is due to drop.
On the weekly level, looking at the whole first downtrend track: after breaking through the 63,800 resistance level on 4/13, excessive friction caused the decline to form a second downtrend track.
After four consecutive weeks of strong bullish energy releasing in big bullish candles, the K-candles are not full—especially the last three K-lines show that the market hasn’t formed an upward momentum. It’s more like a choppy micro-rise; overall it has the characteristics of “large volume with short K-lines”.
The market drags along slowly, causing market sentiment to start turning into panic. Now there’s a confusing mix of bullish and bearish signals—this is exactly right. The purpose of the big players has been achieved.
At first glance the market looks lukewarm and not hot, but actually the big wave is already on the way. The bearish outlook remains unchanged.
#行情分析📈
From 7/1 until today, the market has been following a sideways-to-uptrend pattern.
And above there is a dividing line at 67,500.
Below, the first line of defense is at the screen position 63,700.
At this point, institutions will definitely create content to lure longs (诱多).
For example, the 653 K-line and the hourly EMA support at 646, the 4-hour Bollinger lower band support.
The 637 K-line and the 4-hour EMA support.
For the market to fall, the prerequisite is that some of the overhead pressure zones are shaken down through during a sideways decline; once the top is exposed, then a rapid selloff is inevitable afterward.
By the end of July, it’s almost early August. For the market’s cyclical pattern, it means the market is due to drop.
On the weekly level, looking at the whole first downtrend track: after breaking through the 63,800 resistance level on 4/13, excessive friction caused the decline to form a second downtrend track.
After four consecutive weeks of strong bullish energy releasing in big bullish candles, the K-candles are not full—especially the last three K-lines show that the market hasn’t formed an upward momentum. It’s more like a choppy micro-rise; overall it has the characteristics of “large volume with short K-lines”.
The market drags along slowly, causing market sentiment to start turning into panic. Now there’s a confusing mix of bullish and bearish signals—this is exactly right. The purpose of the big players has been achieved.
At first glance the market looks lukewarm and not hot, but actually the big wave is already on the way. The bearish outlook remains unchanged.
#行情分析📈
$BTC BTC Weekly Market Analysis 7/27
From 7/1 until today, the market has been following a sideways-to-uptrend pattern.
And above there is a dividing line at 67,500.
Below, the first line of defense is at the screen position 63,700.
At this point, institutions will definitely create content to lure longs (诱多).
For example, the 653 K-line and the hourly EMA support at 646, the 4-hour Bollinger lower band support.
The 637 K-line and the 4-hour EMA support.
For the market to fall, the prerequisite is that some of the overhead pressure zones are shaken down through during a sideways decline; once the top is exposed, then a rapid selloff is inevitable afterward.
By the end of July, it’s almost early August. For the market’s cyclical pattern, it means the market is due to drop.
On the weekly level, looking at the whole first downtrend track: after breaking through the 63,800 resistance level on 4/13, excessive friction caused the decline to form a second downtrend track.
After four consecutive weeks of strong bullish energy releasing in big bullish candles, the K-candles are not full—especially the last three K-lines show that the market hasn’t formed an upward momentum. It’s more like a choppy micro-rise; overall it has the characteristics of “large volume with short K-lines”.
The market drags along slowly, causing market sentiment to start turning into panic. Now there’s a confusing mix of bullish and bearish signals—this is exactly right. The purpose of the big players has been achieved.
At first glance the market looks lukewarm and not hot, but actually the big wave is already on the way. The bearish outlook remains unchanged.
#行情分析📈
From 7/1 until today, the market has been following a sideways-to-uptrend pattern.
And above there is a dividing line at 67,500.
Below, the first line of defense is at the screen position 63,700.
At this point, institutions will definitely create content to lure longs (诱多).
For example, the 653 K-line and the hourly EMA support at 646, the 4-hour Bollinger lower band support.
The 637 K-line and the 4-hour EMA support.
For the market to fall, the prerequisite is that some of the overhead pressure zones are shaken down through during a sideways decline; once the top is exposed, then a rapid selloff is inevitable afterward.
By the end of July, it’s almost early August. For the market’s cyclical pattern, it means the market is due to drop.
On the weekly level, looking at the whole first downtrend track: after breaking through the 63,800 resistance level on 4/13, excessive friction caused the decline to form a second downtrend track.
After four consecutive weeks of strong bullish energy releasing in big bullish candles, the K-candles are not full—especially the last three K-lines show that the market hasn’t formed an upward momentum. It’s more like a choppy micro-rise; overall it has the characteristics of “large volume with short K-lines”.
The market drags along slowly, causing market sentiment to start turning into panic. Now there’s a confusing mix of bullish and bearish signals—this is exactly right. The purpose of the big players has been achieved.
At first glance the market looks lukewarm and not hot, but actually the big wave is already on the way. The bearish outlook remains unchanged.
#行情分析📈
$BTC Grinding and crushing the plate for many days, smashing the plate for a moment—during this period, the trader was actually the most miserable, the most helpless.
57700 wanted to fall. Because the short positions made up a huge portion, the six consecutive bullish days liquidated most of the shorts. During that time, using all kinds of data and various headlines and news surfaces couldn’t sway market bulls’ sentiment, and yet the trader couldn’t quickly exit for profit either. That’s how the high-level consolidation with a slight upward drift was formed—step by step, it kept luring.
Last night, at the 95300 level, it was basically a spot for inducing longs. But the strong second support line near the bottom was close—many retail traders would definitely move their stop-losses there. It’s impossible to force more long positions to explode. That’s why today’s daytime chart showed this kind of indicator-based inducing behavior.
At the “painted door” level of 63700, there’s still the need to use content to lure more.
As for my personal view on the market: the first place where a true rebound/stabilization (stop-the-fall) would appear is around 62100. From there, wanting to break directly down to the bottom at 58000 is hard. Judging by the indicators, it’s almost impossible—unless there’s a black swan. Most likely, the market will trade in a range between 62100 and 63700, consolidating and repairing the mid-to-long-term indicators. After repairing is completed, it would then fall. But falling to 58000 is not the bottom; below that is 56000.
This is another manifestation of the same kind of inducing-longs behavior seen since the high at 82800 in early May. The price action is very similar in nature, though the specifics differ, but the effect is the same.
If you’re one of the players who survives these two “grind the millstones” episodes and you still make money—then you already exceed 99% of players in the market #技术分析参考
57700 wanted to fall. Because the short positions made up a huge portion, the six consecutive bullish days liquidated most of the shorts. During that time, using all kinds of data and various headlines and news surfaces couldn’t sway market bulls’ sentiment, and yet the trader couldn’t quickly exit for profit either. That’s how the high-level consolidation with a slight upward drift was formed—step by step, it kept luring.
Last night, at the 95300 level, it was basically a spot for inducing longs. But the strong second support line near the bottom was close—many retail traders would definitely move their stop-losses there. It’s impossible to force more long positions to explode. That’s why today’s daytime chart showed this kind of indicator-based inducing behavior.
At the “painted door” level of 63700, there’s still the need to use content to lure more.
As for my personal view on the market: the first place where a true rebound/stabilization (stop-the-fall) would appear is around 62100. From there, wanting to break directly down to the bottom at 58000 is hard. Judging by the indicators, it’s almost impossible—unless there’s a black swan. Most likely, the market will trade in a range between 62100 and 63700, consolidating and repairing the mid-to-long-term indicators. After repairing is completed, it would then fall. But falling to 58000 is not the bottom; below that is 56000.
This is another manifestation of the same kind of inducing-longs behavior seen since the high at 82800 in early May. The price action is very similar in nature, though the specifics differ, but the effect is the same.
If you’re one of the players who survives these two “grind the millstones” episodes and you still make money—then you already exceed 99% of players in the market #技术分析参考
天龙八部-扫地僧
·
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$BTC Crap market is grinding again. Right now, the resistance above is 654. On the hourly chart, the Bollinger Band mid-to-lower tracks are sliding down; the upper band resistance is 657. On the 4-hour Bollinger Band, the lower band is still the same old setup—acting as support. Volume has released with two bullish candles. Overall, it’s a very annoying grinding pattern. The only thing is that the hourly indicators are clearly lagging; plus the 30-minute MACD has just broken above the zero line. In other words, the market can’t directly break 657. So we’ll have to watch the two resistance levels at 654 and 657—how volume expands in the short term indicator.
About this grinding market: when the price pushes up in half of the small ranges, it’s important to watch the corresponding pullbacks. If the pullbacks consolidate and rise instead of falling—then it means the market is releasing the space of the previous day’s mid-term indicators. If that happens, this market must still drop. This is essentially a short- to mid-term indicator problem.
Also, let’s talk about that overnight 653—the fakeout long setup point. Many longs entered at high levels. When you’re up there, you’d usually place stop losses or manually cut when yesterday’s price broke down. Very few people hold positions and keep watching for bullish continuation. On top of that, liquidity is low. Most of the market has basically lost confidence in the outlook.
How to put it: at the moment, it’s basically impossible for the market to break out of the upward trend and push past 67500, the key level. The space above is limited for the operator to create content. I believe the operator will still manage the rhythm using the 654 and 657 points around the 4-hour Bollinger Band lower track—watching market sentiment on longs versus shorts. If the fakeout-long outcome is as good as yesterday’s 653 fakeout, then the price will still grind and eventually come down, pressing and bending the 4-hour Bollinger Band lower track.
Locked: the whole chart has already started shifting toward the operator dumping and probing sentiment. At a time like this, in a high-price area, chasing longs is definitely irrational. The focus should still be on setting up higher-short positions. As for the ultimate heavy sell-off point—during the grinding-mill era—it’s hard to find the exact moment to smash down. If you pursue the extreme, then the probability is you’ll miss the move.
For this kind of market right now, technical traders are very passive. It feels like you keep trying to hit cotton with all your effort—the effect is terrible. But there’s nothing to do; this is just how the market works. #指标技术
About this grinding market: when the price pushes up in half of the small ranges, it’s important to watch the corresponding pullbacks. If the pullbacks consolidate and rise instead of falling—then it means the market is releasing the space of the previous day’s mid-term indicators. If that happens, this market must still drop. This is essentially a short- to mid-term indicator problem.
Also, let’s talk about that overnight 653—the fakeout long setup point. Many longs entered at high levels. When you’re up there, you’d usually place stop losses or manually cut when yesterday’s price broke down. Very few people hold positions and keep watching for bullish continuation. On top of that, liquidity is low. Most of the market has basically lost confidence in the outlook.
How to put it: at the moment, it’s basically impossible for the market to break out of the upward trend and push past 67500, the key level. The space above is limited for the operator to create content. I believe the operator will still manage the rhythm using the 654 and 657 points around the 4-hour Bollinger Band lower track—watching market sentiment on longs versus shorts. If the fakeout-long outcome is as good as yesterday’s 653 fakeout, then the price will still grind and eventually come down, pressing and bending the 4-hour Bollinger Band lower track.
Locked: the whole chart has already started shifting toward the operator dumping and probing sentiment. At a time like this, in a high-price area, chasing longs is definitely irrational. The focus should still be on setting up higher-short positions. As for the ultimate heavy sell-off point—during the grinding-mill era—it’s hard to find the exact moment to smash down. If you pursue the extreme, then the probability is you’ll miss the move.
For this kind of market right now, technical traders are very passive. It feels like you keep trying to hit cotton with all your effort—the effect is terrible. But there’s nothing to do; this is just how the market works. #指标技术
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