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$BTC Analysis and forecast of BTC's price trend:

On the weekly chart, the KDJ indicator is nearing a bottom after a death cross, but there is still a little room left, suggesting further downside. Meanwhile, the MA lines formed a golden cross near 73,000, providing support. Since the broader market indicators are bullish, the downside is limited to around 3,000 points. The MACD golden cross above zero has also closed the door on a downtrend and is providing a floor. After four consecutive weeks of bearish pressure, the weekly candle lows for the first three weeks were all in the 79,000–80,500 range. This week, however, the price broke below 79,000 and fell to around 76,000. This suggests that the major sell-off happened this week. Was it panic over news of a platform hack, concerns about the market ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, instability in the Middle East, worries about persistently high oil prices, or did major players choose to sell and sit on the sidelines? There is no point in speculating about any of this now. The weekly indicators have indeed recovered after this round of volatile declines, but they have not fully recovered. So, based on the current weekly indicator patterns, both a further decline and a bottom followed by a rebound are possible.

On the daily chart, the EMA at 76,000 is providing support. The KDJ has already bottomed and turned upward several times, but the MACD is in a death cross below zero. The MACD pattern shows that after rebounds from 84,800 and 81,900, the price reached highs where golden crosses failed, then turned back down. This is a typical sign of weak bullish momentum, with the indicators lagging behind. After two consecutive days of bearish momentum, bullish momentum has emerged. Considering the EMA support, KDJ, and volume together, the price appears poised for a rebound, but the MACD death cross below zero is certainly a negative factor.

Putting the weekly and daily indicators together: there is a chance the price could continue falling to 73,000, but the daily indicators do support a potential rise. The key is whether, when the short-term indicators turn bullish, they can bring the medium-term indicators along with them. If the indicators unwind during a choppy rise while the market is trying to build a base, that would be a bad sign. But if the price makes a decent rally, then 76,200 will have been the bottom of this volatile downtrend, and the market will turn around and move into an uptrend.

One final point: today is Saturday. The monthly chart rolls over on Sunday, and the weekly chart rolls over on Monday. It is possible that the weekly indicators have already fully recovered, but that this will only become apparent when the chart rolls over next Monday. I remain quite optimistic that 76,200 is the point where the decline stops and the rise begins. But trading with the trend is exhausting, so it is better to focus on swings. If you have profits, you can move your stop to breakeven and see how things play out.

$BTC Around breakeven, stop-loss territory—whatever, do as you please! I’m just watching to see if the market’s impotence can be cured.

I’ve been holding my trend long position. Today, after the price pulled back and bounced around 76,400, I got itchy fingers and entered a swing trade, with a stop-loss set at breakeven. I just wanted to see if it could break through 79,000. Normally, you could take profit on a swing trade at this resistance level, but I set my stop at breakeven to see if the market could show some strength and break out higher.

As it turns out, it’s still just as limp and frustrating as ever. It’s giving me a headache.

For the market ahead, I’d still suggest focusing on swing trades. In a market like we’ve had over the past month or so, whenever the price reaches resistance and runs into a wall, it starts falling. Trying to catch a bit of an easy trend move puts you in a very passive position—it’s exhausting and nerve-racking.

Still, I’m keeping an eye on the broader market. I’m waiting for 89,500, 90,500, and 92,800. My trend long position is still underwater, so I’ll wait 😂

$BTC After the short-term indicators and the 1-hour chart turned fully bullish yesterday, the price rose to around 81,900. This level is resistance: the market has pulled back twice from around here after hitting resistance. But when the price climbed to around 81,900, the hourly and mid-term indicators were actually fully bullish. Although the long-term indicators were still lagging, if this breakout had taken hold, the whole market would have started moving.

The result was yet another rejection and pullback, as usual. Just like reheated leftovers, the price action from 87,300 has been a choppy, grinding decline. I just checked the weekly KDJ: it has indeed recovered from the decline to 18, just one step away from bottoming out. Meanwhile, the MACD is still showing a golden cross above zero, providing a floor for the market. The starting point of the next upswing may be approaching soon, and 76,400 is very likely to be it.

The price really did reach around 76,400, the daily EMA dual-track support level, just one step away from 75,000, where the rally following the rate hike began. In fact, the daily dual-track support at 76,000 had been there all along, but given my read of the broader market at the time, I was more focused on institutions setting a trap around 79,000–80,000.

I’ll say it again: if the market is going to fall, 75,000 won’t hold it. But judging by the current state of the weekly indicators, a drop to 72,500—or even a wick down to 67,500, the key dividing line—is possible. However, all of that runs counter to the bullish outlook indicated by the broader-market indicators.

Since the drop began at 87,300, trading futures in swings has definitely been the more comfortable approach: a grinding market, resistance and support levels, and repeated back-and-forth moves. Shorting high and going long low, with stop-losses in place, should give you a pretty high win rate. The market lacks momentum, which actually makes it easier to place stop-losses on high-level shorts.

But interpreting the broader market trend and swing trading are two different things. In the current market, swing trading really is more suitable. After all, crypto has now been legalized in the U.S., and institutional capital has built up large, long-term holdings and taken control of the market. Volatility is tightly controlled. One-way swings of several thousand, or even over ten thousand, points have become extremely rare. As for the broader market trend, that’s about the eventual direction. In today’s environment, trying to read it can feel clumsy: the market grinds sideways, and you have to wait longer for a result. You give up the chance to get in at the most extreme levels, while institutions grind people down near those very levels. That’s why so many people lose their nerve. Most people would rather see quick profits from swing trades than wait for a trend to play out.

$BTC The market is grinding sideways, so I can’t be bothered to go live. The Fed’s interest rate decision will be announced at 2 a.m. tomorrow. Let’s take a comprehensive look at the current market and forecast where it may go next.

Looking at the naked chart: 80,000 was the low of the pullback after the rally to around 82,000 following the rate hike, and it was also the starting point for the rise to 87,300. In the choppy decline that began at the 87,300 high, 80,000 has held as support for about 20 days. On October 8, the market bottomed at 80,600 without breaking below the 80,000 “door” level, then stopped falling and rose. On October 15, it broke below 80,000 to 79,700, but again stopped falling and rose. On October 24, it dropped from 80,000 to 79,300 before turning back up. Since then, it has been hovering within about 1,000 points of 80,000. Usually, once a “door” level is broken, the market moves into its next phase. But the market has remained so resilient that this could be seen as a rest after a major rally. The BTC price can be flexible, but institutions are protecting the bottom line.

Looking at the indicators: The daily indicators are shaping up reasonably well, but MACD is still below zero. We need the mid-term indicators to turn bullish, with a sharp rally to drive the market higher; otherwise, it will keep grinding sideways. The mid-term indicators haven’t formed perfectly and are lagging, but on the 4-hour chart, MACD has formed a golden cross and is approaching the zero line. After five consecutive bullish candles on VOL5, a bearish candle appeared as a transition. The other 4-hour indicators haven’t formed perfectly either, but they look decent. So the mid-term indicators do have flaws—which is normal. How good can the indicators look when the market is just grinding sideways?

On the weekly chart, after three consecutive weeks of bearish energy being released, bullish energy has emerged. A weekly MACD golden cross breaking above the zero line is all but certain and is now playing out in real time. KDJ has indeed formed a death cross amid the recent choppy decline and is now at 40. The weekly MA configuration has already told us one thing: if we compare a bull market to a rocket, then the current price action is like building the launch site at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. This also aligns with the monthly indicators, which are bullish. But with weekly KDJ at 40, it also makes you wonder whether the market will keep falling, push KDJ to the bottom, then reverse and surge. If so, the market could indeed continue to decline in a choppy fashion. But if the daily indicators form a downtrend, 75,000 won’t hold; the price would need to reach around 73,000 at least. That would break the overall uptrend and conflict with the broader bullish outlook. You could also see it this way: after institutions worked so hard to create bullish momentum in the broader market with the huge rally on August 19, protecting BTC’s price is only natural. (There’s a market recap in the comments.) #分析行情

$BTC With the broader market bullish, the trend can either move straight up or enter a consolidation phase after a big rally—in other words, a period of indicator recovery. Since the overall trend is bullish, the bottom of any range-bound period will move higher, not lower.

On September 21, when the market was near 87,300, I said it would enter a choppy downtrend to repair the long-term and weekly indicators, with 78,000 as the extreme downside target, while keeping open the possibility of 75,000 (viewing the entire 75,000–87,300 range as one consolidation cycle). The market did indeed move in a choppy downtrend afterward. But because the initial decline wasn’t technically ideal, my indicator analysis led me to raise the extreme downside target to 80,000, while allowing for a possible move near 79,000. There’s no reason to revisit 75,000 (see the follow-up explanation below).

This Monday, the weekly KDJ did form a death cross, dropping from around 60 last week to around 37. But here’s the point: if KDJ is to bottom out, 75,000 won’t hold it back. This is a very clear confirmation of my earlier analysis. If the market were to move this way to repair the weekly indicators, it would inevitably have to crash—and 75,000 certainly wouldn’t hold. But the broader market indicators are bullish, and after being tested throughout the bear market, the weekly MACD has formed a golden cross and moved above the zero line, disproving the idea of a crash. With the indicators setting a floor for the market, the price can only rise in a choppy fashion; it won’t break down and invalidate the overall uptrend.

The market makers are really testing people’s nerves by grinding prices around these extreme levels. Many people think that if 80,000 breaks, the price could fall to 75,000. If the broader market were bearish, 75,000 wouldn’t hold at all and we’d see a crash. But the fact is that the broader market is bullish, so 75,000 is out of reach. The market makers have created this kind of market sentiment. Everyone should stay rational.

I’m sticking with my earlier analysis: I expect a move up to 89,500, 90,500, and 92,800.

Let’s talk about BTC’s outlook. From a technical-indicator perspective, the market is still aiming for a choppy upward trend. From October 11 to October 20, price repeatedly tried but failed to break above the daily Bollinger Band middle line, or MA20. It finally broke through on the 21st. This broke the market out of its previous converging triangle pattern, where 80,000 had been support and price was trending downward under resistance. Although price fell to around 80,800 yesterday, liquidating some longs between 81,700 and 82,200, there wasn’t much liquidation pressure below 80,000. Most of the significant liquidation levels were between 82,200 and 85,800.

You could also interpret this as bearish sentiment currently outweighing bullish sentiment. The broader-market indicators are bullish—that’s a qualitative assessment. Once the medium-term indicators form a bullish trend, the market will inevitably rise, and market makers won’t miss the chance to use this bearish sentiment as fuel for a push upward.

Price is currently hovering around 81,700, giving the impression that upward momentum is weak and people are afraid to buy the dip. Looking at the short-term indicators, although the chart looks a bit like it’s been chewed up by a dog, haha, overall it’s still looking pretty good. First, it isn’t a bearish pattern; the bullish pattern just isn’t quite perfect. That’s typical of the current choppy market.

My personal take is that after heavy churning between 80,800 and 81,700, price will head toward around 92,800 to trap the bears, and then continue upward to 85,500. Once the gap at 85,500 is filled, it could head straight to 86,700 and break to a new high.

$BTC Based on my personal understanding of the market, I’d build long positions in batches, keeping the liquidation price at a safe level, and just go for the big move.

Especially near resistance and support levels, market makers often make tempting back-and-forth moves to shake people out. For example, last night the market came close to 84,800. Longs could have taken profits and stayed on the sidelines, since there was a strong resistance level at 85,500 just above, and not far away. The market was ranging between 84,300 and 84,870, and 84,300 was a strong resistance level. In situations like this, unless you’re watching the market closely, or you entered a short position at around five or six in the morning, it’s better not to open a short position early at a high price. If you set a stop-loss, it’s easy to get stopped out by a breakout. The market trend itself is bullish, so opening short positions in advance against the trend carries a lot of risk.

It’s true that the market has been rather choppy lately. At strong resistance levels, it’s more likely to pull back than to break through decisively and push higher. At strong support levels, it’s more likely to bounce than to break down decisively. But nothing is certain. Whether you choose swing trading or trend trading, each approach has its trade-offs. Trend trading means missing some of the back-and-forth opportunities in choppy markets, while swing trading can sometimes mean missing a big move. Choose a suitable trading style based on your own time and energy.

But the most important thing is that whatever style you choose, what matters is the result: making money.

$BTC Yesterday, the price broke above 84,300 and reached around 84,870, then found support at 84,300 and moved sideways within a narrow range. Based on the evening’s price action, it was highly likely to push up toward around 85,500 before entering a period of consolidation. There was strong resistance at that level, and the price had already started pulling back and consolidating around 84,800. The pullback was somewhat large, but understandable.

When I woke up in the morning, I saw that the price had pulled back to around 82,700, a drop of nearly 2,100 points. Looking at the trend, it seemed to be heading into a choppy decline toward around 78,000. But the broader market was still in a choppy upward cycle, which was contradictory. As for the indicators, the outlook still leans bullish.

First, the price rose to around 84,800. After the market’s short positions were liquidated, liquidity was very low. The market maker may have taken advantage of this and set another trap. The breakout above 84,300 that pushed the price to 84,800 was actually another attempt to lure in buyers. Liquidation data shows that quite a few longs bought near the highs last night. Looking at the current liquidation map, there is some liquidation volume around 82,200, while the liquidation volume for longs at 83,700 and 85,400 is huge. This is what I mentioned last time: once the triangle consolidation breaks, the market will make a swing move, and that’s when liquidity will appear. Considering the liquidation levels alongside the price action, the price could move toward around 82,200, forming a bottoming and rebound pattern on the candlestick chart. But with such a large amount of liquidation volume above, it’s more likely that the price will surge quickly and liquidate shorts. When interpreting the liquidation map, remember that institutional positions using leverage are also included.

The price is currently near the lows at 82,700, only 500 points away from 82,200, so you could consider positioning for a long in advance. To be more cautious, you could keep some funds aside to enter around 82,200, with a stop at 81,500. Of course, entering directly at 82,700 without scaling in is also an option. The target is 85,500, with a safer liquidation price. This is more prudent, since the price often overshoots a little. In fact, compared with last night’s 84,870, the difference isn’t large. The target should probably be around 86,700. Continuing with yesterday’s analysis, once the price breaks out of the range and makes a new high, the next targets are 89,500, 90,500, and 92,800.#行情分析📈

$BTC BTC is looking bullish. Once it breaks resistance at 84300, it will head to 85500—and 85500 is just an overshoot. The market is aiming for 86700, then it will consolidate around there before breaking through 87300 and heading straight to 89500, with 90500 and an extreme target of 92800.

On September 16, the day of the rate hike, I was bullish and expected a move to 85000, with an overshoot to 87000. After that, I expected a bearish correction in the long-term and weekly indicators. The market would swing lower toward 80000 and 78000, with 75000 remaining a possibility. Later, based on the market’s price action, I changed my analysis: the low would be around 81600, with an overshoot down to 80000. I ruled out 75000 entirely—the reasons were explained in my previous analysis posts.

But the market has stayed bearish, with people targeting 75000. I disagree with that analysis and remain firmly bullish. Yesterday’s breakout from the triangle’s narrowing range was strong evidence.

The daily Bollinger Bands middle line—that is, the MA20—had been pressing down on the candlesticks, but it was finally broken today.

Although liquidity is low and the market makers keep grinding sideways, the liquidation map makes it clear: BTC trading volume is likely low right now, and many people may short around 843. To a large extent, they’ll become fuel to drive the market higher. The market needs to get moving before it can attract interest.

No matter how much the market makers grind sideways, one thing is clear: I don’t focus on the process, only the result. I’m bullish—and I’m going to capture the whole move in one go. #行情分析📈

The triangle is tightening and nearing a breakout, with the price rallying to around 83,400. Although, as usual, the pullback has started and the market is consolidating again, this rally has broken the chart’s candlestick pattern. The line switches at 00:00.

The medium-term indicators are now broadly bullish, and the market could start trending upward at any moment.

$BTC The triangle is converging, and it won't be long before the market makes a one-way move.

$BTC There isn't much to say about the broader market this week. It's the same as last week: bullish.

The current trading range is narrowing, forming a converging triangle. Today, however, the price rose to 83,100, breaking above last week's lower high. Combined with the MACD and MA patterns on the hourly chart, and the 4-hour MACD golden cross nearing the zero line, it's clear that the market is building a base with some strength. But volume shows that tonight's price movements are driven by retail traders buying and selling; institutions have yet to enter the market. The market has gone through a shakeout between 819 and 916, and liquidity is very low. Institutions are watching to see how the market responds to range-bound trading and news-driven excitement before taking action.

The ranges of 75,000–82,200 and 80,000–87,300 can be understood as consolidation after a sharp rise, with the market moving upward—not downward. This is also consistent with bullish broader-market indicators.

So, despite the market's slow progress, it will ultimately rise. The triangle is converging and price swings are getting smaller, so watch out for a sudden pump.

For now, I'm sticking with last week's analysis: bullish, with targets at 89,500 and 90,500, and an extreme target of 92,800.
#行情分析📈

$BTC Based on the current trend, it looks like a range-bound downward move. But within a broader framework of a range-bound upward trend in the overall market, only one of two things can happen: the range-bound downward move either turns into a range-bound decline, bottoms out successfully, and then rises, or it rises directly.

Even if it falls to 75000, that would not be enough to repair the weekly indicators. When the market reached 87300 on September 22, I posted that the next move would be a range-bound decline to repair the long-term and weekly indicators. The target was 80000, the extreme case was 78000, and 75000 was reserved as a possibility. However, since the later trend had some effect on repairing the long-term indicators but almost no effect on the weekly indicators, I directly ruled out a drop to 75000 and only looked for 81600, with overflow considered toward 80000.

Recently, CPI and PPI data came out, raising the probability of interest rate hikes. Market bearish sentiment has surged, and coupled with the current market trend, it has further led everyone to be bearish. The only question is how large the short-selling volume will be.

When something gets too hot, it usually reverses. The September rate hike was a foregone conclusion, and the market had already moved ahead into a downward trend. Then on the day the interest rate was announced, there could be a major reversal. I had already analyzed and anticipated this to the extreme: looking for 85000, with overflow toward 87000, which is why there was the later high at 87300. That was why I viewed it as a range-bound decline.

75000 is no longer enough to repair the weekly indicators unless the market crashes and enters a downtrend. But since the overall market is bullish, and the weekly MACD has formed a golden cross and broken above the zero axis, a crash and downtrend are basically impossible. Looking at past bullish market rallies, weekly-level repairs were basically capped above 25000 points, and the gap between 87300 and 75000 itself is not enough to meet the conditions. So there would have to be a range-bound decline followed by a sudden rapid rebound and then another range-bound decline, creating a time gap. But after about 20 days, none of that appeared. From October 5 to 9, the consecutive declines compressed the room for the range-bound decline. Just look at what the recent moves have been like. Still, it is a paradise for beginners: mindless shorting highs and buying lows, smooth and easy.

Same old story: the overall market is bullish, not bearish. There will not be a situation like the daily Bollinger band middle-to-lower band range in January and May 2025 followed by a sell-off and downtrend. Sorry for those two times, I again analyzed and anticipated them correctly in advance, and this time I remain bearish on that view.

In short: the current market, due to low liquidity, is also being constantly trapped by the main players. Once enough people jump in and the volume is large enough, it will signal the end of the grinding phase and the start of the rally #行情分析📈

$BTC , I'll say it again: the two drops in January and May 2026 also came after the daily Bollinger Bands oscillated between the middle and lower bands, then broke below the lower band support and entered a downtrend. But as I said last time, this time doesn't have that indicator pattern.

One thing to keep in mind: the market is currently in a relatively low-liquidity period, and institutions hold large amounts. The market has already been churning excessively and setting bear traps.

For example, last night the PPI figures came out and U.S. stocks fell at the open. BTC seemed to break below 80,000, but I emphasized during the livestream that the overshoot wouldn't be too large. Also, because the candle that closed out yesterday's daytime decline didn't have a perfect shape, a sharp downward wick followed by a close was highly likely. I specifically mentioned that the 4-hour indicators had already signaled that the end of this drop was near. I'm firmly bullish, not bearish. Don't chase these overshoots, or you'll get burned easily.

Take September, after the rate hike, for example: the market rallied from 75,000 to 87,300. I warned that a rise was inevitable, but 84,500–85,000 was an extreme resistance zone, though the price might overshoot. We projected that overshoot to 87,000. As soon as it reached 85,000, we began building short positions in batches.

At the time, the market looked to be in a choppy downtrend from the 87,300 resistance level. I saw 80,000 and 79,500 as lower targets, with 78,000 as the extreme, while keeping 75,000 in play. You can go back and check my posts; if I remember correctly, that's what I said. Later, because the market didn't make the kind of move that would repair the weekly indicators, I moved the support level down to an extreme of 81,600, with an overshoot to 80,000, rather than the extreme 78,000 or even 75,000. In fact, when the market fell yesterday after the CPI figures came out, the chart indicators and candlestick pattern made me very interested in the possibility that the PPI release, combined with the U.S. stock market open, would be used to bait traders into shorting. As it turned out, that's exactly what happened.

Remember: market makers have tight control of the market. Most so-called resistance and support levels will be overshot by 1,000–2,000 points, or fall short by 1,000–2,000 points. In any case, unlike before, prices rarely hit a level within just 300–500 points—or with zero error. The market isn't moving smoothly, so take it steady. Any gains are better than none; just keep it sensible, haha 😁😁😁

CPI comes out at 8:30 tonight, so the market should start moving, right? 😂😂😂

I'm still leaning bullish. Let's see whether the market delivers after tonight's data comes out.

No matter how the market makers grind the market or set traps, I’m only bullish: 89,500, 90,500, and an extreme target of 92,800. See you there!

$BTC A lot of people are comparing this market move to January and May 2026, when price fluctuated around the daily chart’s lower Bollinger Band before breaking below it and starting a downtrend. They see this as another breakdown and decline. But in those two cases, I analyzed the market in advance and correctly predicted what would happen. The indicators at the time were very consistent with a downtrend. This time is different.

The long-term indicator setup is bullish, not bearish. Only the mid-term indicators may need to adjust sooner than expected. Yesterday, price seemed to stall at the 843 resistance level around the daily Bollinger middle band and then start falling, but this was just normal consolidation. The pullback was indeed larger than I expected. This is also a usual tactic of the market makers lately: they often push price a little further than expected. But it doesn’t affect the overall market trend, and it even gives the mid-term indicators a chance to reset.

When the market plunged this morning, my student messaged me. I woke up, opened the chart, and was completely baffled too. Last night, price seemed to be holding around 816–821 and bouncing, yet it fell all the way to 809. But after checking the indicators, I was completely unfazed. If price overshoots, that’s the market makers’ business. Don’t let it sway you or affect your analysis and judgment.

As I keep saying, the indicators are bullish. Let the market makers grind away at 843 and 855; I’ll just take my share of the profits.

$BTC This week’s market analysis is actually consistent with the analysis from the week before last and last week: the daily Bollinger Bands are moving sideways within a range. Since the daily Bollinger Bands are currently narrowing, the resistance above was at 867, but has now moved down to 862. The bottom at 816 remains unchanged.

Last week, the extreme support at 816 was breached, causing an overshoot. I mentioned this in my previous post too: this is the final phase of this market move. Don’t chase shorts in the small overshoot zone; the market can quickly rebound at any time. Buying dips or building long positions in stages near the bottom is the best approach.

Right now, resistance above has moved down to 862, while support at the bottom remains 816. The drop to 804 was an overshoot—a final move in this market cycle. Current resistance levels are 843, 855, and 862. 843 is the daily Bollinger Band middle line. As I said last week, when the Bollinger Bands narrow and the market reaches support at the lower band, the first level it is likely to rebound to is 843.

843 is also the daily Bollinger Band middle line and was a resistance level on the previous candlestick. The second level is 855. The market makers will probably use these two levels to create some chop and short-term fluctuations. Also, many retail traders holding long positions will take profits as soon as the price reaches 843, which could intensify the swings around that level. As for 862, if the market successfully breaks through 855, the pattern of choppy decline will be invalidated, and 862 will be unlikely to hold it back. The market will most likely go on to break a new high, targeting 895, 905, and the extreme level of 928, in a choppy upward trend.

Overall, the market is leaning bullish. It’s normal to see some choppy trading around 843 and 855 for now, but ultimately the market should still push higher.