$BTC Good morning market update: it has reached around 82,300. Based on the bullish analysis from these past few days, it has already held above the 80,000 level. The analysis that 81,500 would be unstoppable has been confirmed.
Let’s look at today’s market. First, looking at the daily chart, the line is bearish/negative. Everyone can easily start thinking about a downward trend, believing that the 82,300 point is just being capped by the May high resistance at 83,000. Plus, it has risen so much in August—so it’s time to fall. At this moment, are many people starting to set up short positions to push the trend downward?
Here’s my view: If we consider the extreme high at 86,000, placing short positions in batches with a 4,000-point difference from the high is still understandable. But the monthly chart for the overall market is bullish. The weekly indicators have not officially formed a bearish setup yet. The long-term indicators are still bullish as well. Shorting now is going against the larger trend. To set up shorts in batches early—in order to anticipate the weekly indicators forming a bearish pattern and to catch the market at its extreme high—is somewhat irrational.
As I often say: If the monthly indicators are bearish and the weekly indicators are always turning bearish, then you can set up short positions in batches in the selling zone in advance. But when the monthly indicators are bullish and the weekly indicators are turning bearish at any moment, you cannot set up shorts in batches too early—otherwise you may get trapped by the big players. For example, will 86,000 break through and exceed? And when the monthly indicators are bullish, once the weekly indicators truly turn bearish, will the market transition from a high level with a sideways-to-down movement? I believe the space from 80,000 to 86,000 is enough for the big players to grind the market. Once the extreme high breaks out, the grinding range will be even larger. In extreme cases, the 80,000 support could rise up to around 81,500.
So, based on the comprehensive analysis, the conclusion is: The risk coefficient of starting to build short positions now is still quite high. I don’t recommend starting shorts right now. Better to wait and watch from the extreme high zone. The main strategy is: it’s better to miss than to be wrong.
Regarding today’s market: personally, I still think it will rise, to 84,500 and 86,000. Once it reaches those levels, I will promptly provide my analysis and thoughts.
Also, tonight at 8:30 p.m., the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data will be released. When the data comes out, institutions will again start making probabilistic comments about what may happen regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on the 17th. Don’t let those remarks distract you from the core analytic framework.#行情分析📈
$BTC
Let’s look at today’s market. First, looking at the daily chart, the line is bearish/negative. Everyone can easily start thinking about a downward trend, believing that the 82,300 point is just being capped by the May high resistance at 83,000. Plus, it has risen so much in August—so it’s time to fall. At this moment, are many people starting to set up short positions to push the trend downward?
Here’s my view: If we consider the extreme high at 86,000, placing short positions in batches with a 4,000-point difference from the high is still understandable. But the monthly chart for the overall market is bullish. The weekly indicators have not officially formed a bearish setup yet. The long-term indicators are still bullish as well. Shorting now is going against the larger trend. To set up shorts in batches early—in order to anticipate the weekly indicators forming a bearish pattern and to catch the market at its extreme high—is somewhat irrational.
As I often say: If the monthly indicators are bearish and the weekly indicators are always turning bearish, then you can set up short positions in batches in the selling zone in advance. But when the monthly indicators are bullish and the weekly indicators are turning bearish at any moment, you cannot set up shorts in batches too early—otherwise you may get trapped by the big players. For example, will 86,000 break through and exceed? And when the monthly indicators are bullish, once the weekly indicators truly turn bearish, will the market transition from a high level with a sideways-to-down movement? I believe the space from 80,000 to 86,000 is enough for the big players to grind the market. Once the extreme high breaks out, the grinding range will be even larger. In extreme cases, the 80,000 support could rise up to around 81,500.
So, based on the comprehensive analysis, the conclusion is: The risk coefficient of starting to build short positions now is still quite high. I don’t recommend starting shorts right now. Better to wait and watch from the extreme high zone. The main strategy is: it’s better to miss than to be wrong.
Regarding today’s market: personally, I still think it will rise, to 84,500 and 86,000. Once it reaches those levels, I will promptly provide my analysis and thoughts.
Also, tonight at 8:30 p.m., the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data will be released. When the data comes out, institutions will again start making probabilistic comments about what may happen regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on the 17th. Don’t let those remarks distract you from the core analytic framework.#行情分析📈
$BTC
