BIT居士

Everyone, think about a question: it’s a real and common problem. Most retail users don’t have much capital. Then they want returns of 500% and 10,000%, and they fantasize that they can earn their first life-changing windfall in the contract trading market. Even some people “challenge” themselves with just 100 USDT to earn 100,000 USDT, with 10,000 USDT to try to make 1,000,000 USDT, and even to challenge earning 100 million. Isn’t that even more awesome than the top traders on Wall Street? Of course, some people can double or multiply their money for a period of time. But as long as you keep playing in the contract market, sooner or later it will all go to zero.

If you want high returns, you inevitably face the high risk of losing your principal. And this is a high-probability outcome.

Almost all contract traders go through a process: small capital tests the waters → watch the chart and place bets on whether it will go up or down → set take-profit and stop-loss → discover that you’re being endlessly stopped out → don’t set a stop-loss → you’re profitable but greedy and lazy, and you don’t sell → you lose, so you add margin and “hold dead” → you add bigger capital, don’t set a stop-loss, and hold against the order-book pressure → you keep losing, still unwilling to give up, and once again you pour in money to bet your stake in the market → and then you end up at zero.

Why does this happen? Here’s a mathematical logic: the probability that you win a single contract trade is 50%, i.e., 1/2. The probability that you win your second contract trade is also 1/2… and the probability for the Nth trade is still 1/2. Since you only have this amount of capital, you can’t afford to lose once. So any time you lose in the middle, you have to start over. Your final probability of making a profit approaches 1/2 raised to the Nth power. The more times you operate, the more your probability of winning approaches 0.

That’s how it works in contract trading: you can profit 10 times and still be wiped out by losing once—what’s more, everyone’s liquidation line is clearly, blatantly exposed to the people running the orders behind the scenes. If you win in the short term, it’s not because you’re that capable—it’s because others haven’t harvested you yet. You’ll notice that every few months, there will be a big round of harvesting.

Doing contract trading is the hardest thing in this world. Your counterparty is very clear about your limits—your stop-loss and your liquidation positions. Think it through carefully, everyone.

Two days ago, everyone was still saying: “The crypto market has no liquidity now. All the money in crypto has gone to US stocks. There’s no money in the market—so how could Bitcoin possibly rise?”

And I’ve been emphasizing: “In August, we’ll first see a spike, around 70,000, maybe 72,000.” How did I判断? The market needs to go against human nature. Everyone is waiting for the last drop, so the market is likely to spike up first—killing most of the shorts—creating a false impression of a bull market. People then start saying, “The bull market is here—go, go, go!” and then it comes with a rapid plunge. After wiping out the longs, you get a rapid surge again.

I’ve never believed that if liquidity disappears, prices will necessarily fall—because liquidity can return instantly. Price moves depend on sentiment and the contrarian, anti-human-nature tactics of the market maker. Liquidity is something the market maker lets people see.

In the previous phase, AI and storage stocks were on fire—everyone went to US stocks. So all the “liquidity” people talked about went there. What happened then? A 50% crash in a month.

Now think carefully about one question: is it really that liquidity has dried up—which makes it the best entry point? Should trading be done against human nature? If people think liquidity is gone, so they all start waiting or selling—who exactly is buying?

Who benefits from a sudden breakout surge? If you don’t believe me, just watch. Soon everyone will be saying: “Liquidity has come from US stocks back into the crypto market!”

How to improve your win rate and risk-reward ratio—it's only one move: use the stop-loss level you set to place your entry.

For example, you can open a smaller position according to your intuition (a bit larger than a sesame-sized position—just slightly bigger, to help find your entry point). It must be your real intention and a normal way of operating. Set your stop-loss and take-profit levels normally. For instance, if you’re looking short, then you wait. If this trade becomes profitable and quickly approaches your take-profit level, you close the position and take the profit. If the market doesn’t go down as you expected, but instead drives toward your stop-loss, then you can open a slightly larger position at your stop-loss level.

Going even further, another approach is: you originally planned to go long. Your stop-loss is already set—say it's 60,000. Then you can do the opposite. In that moment, go short, with the take-profit level set to the 60,000 you originally intended to set. Then, when it reaches 60,000, you go long.

This style of operation is such that most people end up losing money—99% lose. And you are also in that 99%. Your counterparty/market maker is in the 1% that operates correctly. But this contrarian approach directly places you on the counterparty’s side. It’s a passive form of contrarian, against-human-nature behavior.

Only contrarian behavior against human nature makes money—you can become that 1%.

Personally, I don’t usually trade contracts. I used this method to do some swing trading, and the verification showed it can improve the win rate.

After you’ve been in the crypto world long enough, you’ll come to know that your final destination is BTC. Other ones—like Ethereum, BNB, SOL, and so on—can only be owned for a short time; they’re just scenery along the way, for you to look at, not for you to possess.

BTC’s biggest drawback right now is that it hasn’t upgraded to be quantum-resistant yet. But this is also its biggest advantage. Once the quantum-resistance upgrade is completed, Bitcoin will become the hardest asset in the world.

Some people may think Bitcoin won’t complete the quantum-resistance upgrade. I can tell everyone very clearly: the quantum-resistance upgrade is inevitable and will be completed. Ethereum will complete the quantum-resistance upgrade first. After the feasibility is verified, Bitcoin will follow immediately. Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1.1 million Bitcoins can be handled in a few ways: 1) Destroy them. 2) Lock them, but the owner can reactivate them later. 3) Map them to quantum-resistant Bitcoins.

It seems everyone got one thing wrong: when a coin goes up, people start chasing it with FOMO, thinking the bull market is here—quick, buy! When a coin goes down, people panic like crazy, can’t take it anymore—quick, sell, quick, run.

Is everyone really operating like this? Everyone is doing the exact opposite.

Shouldn’t it be: buy in a bear market, sell in a bull market?

This is the difference between the rich and the poor: the rich playbook goes like this—when a bear market comes, the coin price starts getting dumped, they疯狂ly spread negative news, and panic spreads. Everyone can’t hold on, and he hypes them all off the train—then he uses that moment to build positions and buy the lots. When a bull market comes, he疯狂ly releases good news, manufactures FOMO sentiment, and hypes everyone into buying at high prices to complete the distribution of his holdings.

The poor mindset is the opposite. In a bull market, FOMO is high, people疯狂ly buy and get onboard—then they get trapped. In a bear market, panic keeps going; they can’t stand it anymore, and they end up cutting losses for even lower lots. In the end, the lots get handed over to the dealer.

Trading has a counterparty. In a bull market, if more people are buying, then for every amount bought, there must be an equal amount sold—so who is doing the selling? In a bear market, if more people are selling, then for every amount sold, there must be an equal amount bought—so who is buying?

Before you trade, figure out the logic first. That’s why ordinary people buy and the price drops, and sell and the price rises. If it goes up too much, it must drop; if it drops too much, the coin goes up.

In a nutshell: buy in a bear market, sell in a bull market. Small dips, small buys; big drops, big buys. If it doesn’t drop, don’t buy. Small rises, small sells; big rises, big sells.

When the bad news doesn’t cause a drop, what does that mean? I guess this bear market could end early. Look at the short sellers with 30k and 20k targets—they’re waiting for a “black swan” and for the market to behave as if it were cut and pasted. Right now, everyone is waiting to buy the dip by catching the “needle.” Do you think the market will go along with everyone’s wishes? The biggest black swan—MicroStrategy’s strategy—has already been told to everyone by the actual results: it can’t collapse. Even if it goes lower, as long as the selling price is enough to cover the interest, and it has been selling all along, the market hasn’t crashed.

If it truly falls to $30,000, the miners, family offices, MicroStrategy, and the big players will go short on Bitcoin—if it falls to $20,000, MicroStrategy will issue another round of shares and buy 5 million more BTC directly. That would make them more profitable than the miners, because it means the next Bitcoin halving. With miner costs at $90,000, that’s a 4x profit. Miners would then sell machines and buy Bitcoin directly with the money they were planning to use to buy machines.

In the market, the most efficient mining rigs have a “miner cost” of around $40,000. When Bitcoin stays below $40,000 for a long time, even the best miners shut down first, sell machines, and then buy Bitcoin. Now most mining rigs cost between $60,000 and $80,000. If it stays below $60,000 for a long time, most miners have to sell rigs and pivot.

After the halving in 2028, the miner cost will reach $90,000. So it’s not that MicroStrategy will collapse first—rather, the miners will “pop” first. Bitcoin’s bottom is not far from where miners go bankrupt or pivot. Everyone should know that many miners in the market have already pivoted to AI. It’s the same logic as during previous shutdown waves: once miners don’t make money, that’s it—this is the value “trough” of Bitcoin.

If Bitcoin breaks below $40,000, I’m telling you now: you’ll have to liquidate everything to buy Bitcoin, because your cost will be lower than even the best miners’ costs! They still have to buy machines, build facilities, hire engineers, and pay a whole list of expenses like machine depreciation, etc. Even the best Bitcoin miner still has costs around $50,000 per coin. You don’t have to do anything—you don’t need to buy machines, build facilities, hire people, or pay machine depreciation. You can immediately get the Bitcoin they need a whole year and 20 machines to mine—while they also have time cost, and you don’t.

How much do you think Bitcoin could fall below the miner cost?

It’s possible Bitcoin could still drop another 20%, but whether it starts dropping from $65,000 or from $72,000 is unknown. August’s direction for Bitcoin is extremely important. Next, let’s see whether in August it follows the earlier predictions: first it rises with a “needle poke,” and then it crashes violently.

The Democratic Party election committee is looking to pledge building loans—this is an opportunity for the crypto circle. The CLARITY Act has been delayed until September. With the midterm elections approaching, to get the bill passed, they must secure more than seven votes from the Democrats. Everyone also knows that the Democrats are currently squeezing the industry.

Now the Democratic Party election committee has no money on its books, while the Republicans still have over $100 million. The Democrats are even willing to pledge building loans—at this stage, it only further highlights how important the crypto circle is. The leading players in crypto could actually start negotiations with the Democrats right now, such as Coinbase, Circle, MicroStrategy, and others. Getting seven votes from the Democrats at this moment isn’t too difficult. In the end, it depends on whether the top leaders in the coin world want to do it.

Do these firms benefit if the bill passes? Can the benefits be maximized? Have they already prepared for the bill to pass? Will passage bring them more advantages? Or would passing it now benefit their competitors more? These are the questions the big shots in crypto have to consider. Ordinary people’s wishes don’t matter.

Passing the bill is good for the United States, not just good for crypto—it’s a mutually beneficial, win-win bill. The Democrats are struggling over how to respond to Trump’s ethical provisions; they’re being too petty, not considering the possibility that if Democrats come to power, they could also profit.

The Republicans are at it with a blatant scheme. They’ve blamed the Democrats for not passing the bill—failing to pass it is entirely due to the Democrats’ issues. The ethical provisions the Democrats wanted—Republicans have already compromised on. But the Democrats still aren’t satisfied. That’s the scheme. If the Democrats still refuse, they’ll inevitably push the crypto circle toward the Republicans; if they pass it, they’ll get even stronger support from crypto. The Democrats are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They’ve entered a situation where they have to prove themselves. To break the deadlock, they can only drag it out—until the midterm elections are near—then promptly agree to secure crypto support.

Bitcoin has forked—BIP-110 has split off from block height 961632. When people see a Bitcoin fork, they feel like Bitcoin is doomed. But if you’ve been around the crypto world for a while, every time Bitcoin forks it’s an opportunity to get rich. Of course, this time it’s a soft fork, not a hard fork. A soft fork won’t have a major negative impact on Bitcoin. A hard fork will map to a new coin 1:1. Not only does it not hurt Bitcoin’s price—every hard fork tends to cause even more people to buy Bitcoin, and then a crowd gets “rich” via short-position mapping.

Soft fork (tightening rules): Think of it like lowering the speed limit from 120 km/h to 100 km/h. Drivers who keep using old cars don’t realize the rules changed—if they just drive slower (following the new rules), they can still stay on the road. But if someone drives fast (violating the new rules), the traffic police will stop them. So in most cases, the network won’t split, and no new coins will be created.
· Example: In Bitcoin’s history, SegWit (Segregated Witness) and the Taproot upgrade were successful soft forks. They enhanced functionality and privacy, but they didn’t split the blockchain.

Hard fork (loosening/changing rules): Think of it like raising the speed limit from 120 km/h to 150 km/h. Old cars simply can’t go that fast, so they have to stay on the old road. Meanwhile, new cars take the new highway. From then on, the two roads diverge permanently, causing the blockchain to split for good—and at the snapshot, new coins are created at a 1:1 ratio (e.g., Bitcoin Cash, BCH).
· Example: The 2017 Bitcoin block-size debate. Because the disagreement over block size couldn’t be reconciled, a hard fork ultimately produced Bitcoin Cash (BCH). People holding Bitcoin automatically received an equal amount of BCH.

BIP-110 plans to add seven consensus restrictions within about a year, mainly targeting non-payment data such as Ordinals inscriptions, BRC-20 tokens, and Runes. Supporters believe these “data storage” behaviors consume block space, drive up transaction fees, and that it’s necessary to “set things right” to bring Bitcoin back to a pure peer-to-peer electronic cash system. But support is bleak—current support is only 2.7%. Including Michael Saylor and Adam Back, they have denounced it and concluded it will fail.

Personally, I also oppose BIP-110. Bitcoin is free—anything that’s needed is a good direction, and it shouldn’t be restricted. How do you know which direction Bitcoin will ultimately develop is the right one? Just like Satoshi Nakamoto didn’t predict that Bitcoin might become a strategic reserve asset.

Bitcoin’s bottom is completed almost imperceptibly. While most people are waiting for Bitcoin to accelerate up again to $150,000 like before, it suddenly stops at $126,000. When most people are waiting to buy the dip at $48,000 or $38,000, maybe it suddenly stops at $57,000 (maybe even lower at $53,000). Perhaps the market won’t drop easily. When good news doesn’t cause a rise, it turns into a drop—when a bull market ends. Similarly, when bad news doesn’t cause a fall, it signals that a bear market has ended.

Why can’t ordinary people make money? Because they all want to buy the very bottom and sell at the absolute highest point. If they can’t catch the bottom or can’t sell at the peak, they feel like they’re losing. The market isn’t like that. Even institutions, whales, and other big players can’t always catch the lowest and sell at the highest. Why would ordinary little “cabbage” traders be able to? That’s the paradox itself. Whales have enough capital—when they sell or drop, they buy. Even with that kind of operation, there isn’t much capital left that can truly buy the bottom. Let alone ordinary little traders—they don’t have that much capital.

So “cabbage” traders end up being forced to chase swing trades. This action drags them into another extremely high-difficulty dimension. What they think is to double their money by swing trading—maybe even like certain people in the plaza: 10U turning into 100U, and 10,000U turning into 100U or even 10,000,000U. To put it plainly: if you can double your money within a year by swing trading, you’re already the most badass trader in the world. Your salary or commissions would be world-class—annual income of $1 million, $10 million… It’s very simple.

The reason ordinary people can’t make money is that they feel invincible and place themselves among the best traders in the world. In financial markets—the hardest kind of operation. How could they make money?

Everyone, understand the next sentence carefully. There’s a saying in financial markets: Slow is fast.

Bitcoin’s current position—even if it isn’t the absolute lowest—offers very good value. The most sensible move for “cabbage” traders is: small dips, small buys; big dips, bigger buys; if it doesn’t dip, don’t buy—set up regular DCA (dollar-cost averaging) for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Will Bitcoin still fall? Of course it will. But whether you dare to buy when Bitcoin drops determines your income. Trading isn’t only about seeing profit—it’s also about what happens when you lose.

When I do things, I think about the worst possible outcome, but I do it with the determination to win. How do you understand this sentence? It applies in any situation. Bitcoin investing is the same.

What is the current state of Bitcoin? Is it really all over? Aren’t we all waiting for the final drop—including me? Even though I already have positions and I’m holding them long-term, I still want Bitcoin to drop once more so I can add to my position.

The tech stocks—like the U.S. stock market, AI, storage, SpaceX, and others—have all collapsed. And within a short period of about a month, they dropped 50%. That’s even less stable than Bitcoin and it’s basically cutting people.

Money is starting to flow back into the Bitcoin market. And even though there are plenty of negative news, it isn’t dropping anymore: exchanges closing, MicroStrategy selling coins, the bill not passing but being delayed, hardware wallets being stolen, and so on—none of it is causing a drop. So what’s the next move? When it falls, buy. If it dips slightly, buy a little. If it crashes, buy big. In the current phase, you shouldn’t go long, and you also can’t short.

If the CLARITY Bill doesn’t get passed, is it generally agreed that it will fall? Will the market really move like that? Why, in the previous post, did I say it would “spike downward”? I was considering one thing: the market may be contrarian against human nature. If the bill fails and, at that time, the market doesn’t do a downward spike but drops directly, then I think it’s most likely just a bear trap—everyone feels it’s the right moment to short with the trend. In reality, it’s a trap. Then they pull up the price with a rally to squeeze shorts, until everyone can’t take it anymore and starts doubting whether a bull market is actually returning. People then get pulled into FOMO, and right after they jump in, it turns into a violent crash—mass liquidation, scaring everyone out, and harvesting both sides as they go.

The points where nobody dares to buy are the actual buying opportunities. The points where everyone enters FOMO to buy are the selling opportunities.

Everyone, guess how August, September, and October should play out so that most people don’t get on the train and miss the chance to buy the dip. You need to learn to operate against human nature.

Operating against human nature: First close your eyes and rest for a moment, then use your current way of thinking to trade Bitcoin. Think about when to buy and when to sell. Decide which month to buy, whether to trade in waves, and after a drop of how much you would buy in or get off. For those already on the train, finally think back: at what level would Bitcoin falling make me start to lose patience? At what level would I simply not be able to tolerate it?

So, based on your own thoughts, what would cause most people to miss out or get stuck holding the bag?

My personal idea is: In August, spike upward to around 70,000 (or about 72,000 in the best case). How high exactly depends on where the market will be positioned to create the illusion of a bull market. Then, ultimately, drop 20%. Whether the close should be judged with more market conditions leads to two scenarios:

1) If the bill passes: first surge upward, creating the illusion that it’s a bull market. After the good news has been digested, quickly drive the price down hard—insert another 20% downward wick. Then rapidly push up 10%–15%. At that point, everyone thinks it’s clear and starts buying again—then the price keeps falling, and you enter a wide-range sideways consolidation. Consolidate until November, with an amplitude greater than 10,000 US dollars.

2) If the bill does not pass: spike upward but not too high, then start a fast sell-off—so severe that people feel Bitcoin is basically finished. Institutional funds begin massive withdrawal, and then nobody dares to buy. At this time, institutions and huge whales start quietly selling while secretly buying the dip, entering a bottoming process that grinds on—until mid-November after the election lands, and then the bull market begins with a violent rally, shaking off most people.

This is my personal pre-scenario for Bitcoin. What about you?

How long the horizontal move is, how tall the vertical rise is—if there are no bad signals the price won’t fall and it will rise; if there are good signals it won’t rise and it will fall. Controlling your position size and keeping your mindset steady is the top priority.

Bullish wannabes love to go all-in, thinking that since their capital is small they should put it all in, and also buy a bit of many different coins. What they’re thinking is that maybe this one won’t rise, but that one will. But in the end, even the ones that do rise don’t rise much—because the capital is too spread out.

Or they buy a certain coin that doesn’t rise, then they see someone else’s coin rising. Those people are also doing aggressive promotion, pushing that coin that’s supposedly going up due to FOMO. Then the wannabes abandon the coin they hold to chase someone else’s. Only to find themselves stuck on a tree. Even more infuriating, they later realize their own coin has actually risen again. So they cut their losses to chase the rally, and then—once again—they end up stuck on a tree. The less they manage their money, the less money they have to work with.

Wanna-be traders have too much gambling instinct. They already have little capital, and sooner or later they’ll gamble it all in—and can’t turn their fortunes around.

When trading crypto, always remind yourself: you’re a gambler. So everyone should know what the final outcome is for those who gamble.

Wannabe traders should also adopt an investment mindset—don’t be greedy for too much. If you can make money in the crypto market, you can probably also make money in a casino. They’re all human-nature harvesting machines. Learn how to go against human nature, and that’s when you can start making money.

Actually, it’s not hard for everyone to notice that Bitcoin has gradually matured. It doesn’t swing down 80% anymore the way it used to. Even compared with some tech stocks, it’s steadier. It’s been down for nearly a year and has only dropped about 50%. But SpaceX’s stock can drop 50% in less than a month, and some storage-related stocks can also drop 50% within a month. It’s about time to eliminate subjective thoughts like “Bitcoin has no value” or “Bitcoin will go to zero.”

My personal view: it will surge first in August. As for how high—😩 I feel it could be around 70,000, or in an ideal scenario, maybe 72,000. It will create the illusion that a bull market is back—then a free-fall of around 20%. As for how much it will drop, it depends on how many people in futures are bottom-fishing and going long. If there are many, then it won’t have to drop as deeply; if there are fewer, it may drop more. Then it will swing back and forth, shaking everyone so they won’t dare to buy. Shake until the midterm election in mid-November ends, then comes a sudden surge, a sudden drop, another sudden surge—then the bull market begins. This is my own scenario.

Bitcoin is the world’s first asset with a fixed total supply, and possibly the only one that could evolve into a substitute for gold. Moreover, its level of automation and efficiency is so high. It almost doesn’t require any intermediate maintenance operation—no traditional banks, no value-storage systems. No other asset can really compare.

In a bear market, the most important thing is to survive. Slowly accumulate spot positions. You don’t need to guess where the bottom is. When others feel they can’t take the drop anymore and are uncomfortable, that’s when you buy and gradually invest through dollar-cost averaging. The cost of trying to guess the bottom is missing out on the opportunity.

Once you understand it, you can make money.

Compared with the bottoms of the previous cycle and several earlier bear-market cycles, the consensus in this round (not just the consensus of retail investors/“grass,” institutions, giant whales, listed companies, ETF flows, etc.) is: as long as there’s another ~20% drop, or if prices fall to 50,000 or 40,000, then it’s a full-on bet—“all in.” The earlier bottoms didn’t have this kind of consensus.

So will the market let most people get what they want? I don’t think so. At most, there will be another rapid move that targets and liquidates the long positions—something like a swing of 5,000 to 10,000 points up or down within 5 minutes. Most people won’t be able to catch the bottom and jab in at the pin.

If Ethereum is up to 2100 right now, do you follow or not? 😀

And doesn’t it mean that most of those waiting for 1300 have all missed the boat? 😀

If Bitcoin drops again to the beginning of 50k, and then accelerates down to 53k, are you敢 to go bargain hunting?

Then if Bitcoin rises again to 80k, do you dare to follow? Doesn’t it mean those waiting for 53k have also all missed the boat?

Why am I saying this? What I want to tell everyone is: those who want to bottom-fish often can’t catch the bottom. By the time you react, it’s already flying to the skies.

The best move is: don’t try to pick the bottom—its odds are even lower than winning the lottery, because human nature is involved here. Capital manipulates human nature, and everyone should understand that.

DCA (dollar-cost averaging) is the best investment approach: buy a little on small dips, buy more on big dips. If it doesn’t fall, don’t buy. Over the next few months, every time it drops is a good opportunity to buy.

As a trader, what should you do in the crypto market to do things the right way?

First layer: Manage risk, not profits. Profits are something the market grants you—you can’t control them; but losses are opened by your own hand, so you must manage them. Before every trade, you shouldn’t calculate “how much I can make,” but “how much I’m willing to lose—if it happens, I’ll feel hurt but won’t panic.” Keep any single trade’s loss always within 1%-2% of your total capital. As long as risk is under control, you can make mistakes countless times; once risk is out of control, a single black swan will send you out.

Second layer: Follow a system, not market predictions. Give up the obsession with being bullish/bearish, and switch to “if A happens, I’ll do B; if C happens, I’ll do D.” Your core job is to write the plan before the session. During the session, execute like a robot; after the session, review and correct execution deviations. Prediction is the job of analysts; responding is the job of traders.

Third layer: Manage emotions, not just watching the price. The real battlefield is inside your mind. When you’ve had consecutive losses, do you add positions out of retaliation? When you’ve had consecutive wins, do you start thinking you’re a stock/crypto god? Real traders spend 80% of their effort observing their own breathing and heartbeat, and only 20% watching the candlestick chart (K-line). Decisions made when emotions are out of control are 99% wrong.

Fourth layer: Align with the cycle, not create opportunities. For 80% of the time, the market is disorderly and choppy. What you should really do is wait in cash (stay flat). Only pull the trigger when the trend is clear and the risk-reward ratio is greater than 3:1. Doing nothing can be more important than doing something. Top traders spend most of their time reading and traveling, not staring at screens.

Finally, here’s a simple test for you: If, after today’s close, you feel “really great” or “really depressed,” then you did something wrong. If you feel “as calm as water,” it means you just executed the pre-set plan—and you’re on the right path.

For inexperienced retail investors, systematic investing (DCA) is the most effective method. The operation that the big players fear the most is DCA. But DCA must be done with the right targets—don’t choose meme coins or low-quality altcoins. From among Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB, you can allocate them in a 5:3:2 ratio to set up a combined DCA plan. For those who still have available funds, start DCA from now: a 5–8 month time horizon, buy small dips and buy more on bigger drops—don’t buy when there’s no drop.

Korean stock market crash, US stock market decline, a pullback in the gold and silver market, and football-related funds flowing back—these funds need somewhere to go. The end of the four-year Bitcoin cycle bear market is just about to arrive. Is it coincidence or inevitability? It’s both. Funds will look for value bargains, and Bitcoin will most likely absorb these funds.

So the next steps will be: when there’s a pullback, add to your position; if it dips slightly, buy a little; if it drops further, buy more. I won’t short at the end of a bear market. Will Bitcoin still fall? Of course it will. The most likely path ahead is: a bullish green day in July, an attempt higher in August followed by a decline—watch 6.8 on the upside and 5.8 on the downside. In September, expect a downward “needle” move, likely in the range of 5.3 to 5.5. Everyone is waiting for October’s widely recognized bear-market bottom. So I guess October will see a surge that won’t give retail investors a chance. After that, it will be consolidation drifting upward, kicking off a bull market.

To the all-powerful coin friends, which platform that is specifically for writing posts in the crypto world is most well-known right now? Besides Binance Square, what else is there? What dedicated chat platforms and promotion platforms exist in the crypto world?