These days, it seems like just about anyone can become a KOL.
First of all, a high win rate doesn't mean high returns. If you make 10 trades, winning 9 times still won't make up for one big loss. You can have an 80% win rate and still lose money.
People are constantly shown KOLs bragging, “Take-profit hit again,” “My win rate this month is 80%,” or “Our members have been making money consistently.” They sound very convincing when they analyze candlestick charts. This misleads people into thinking they're really good, enticing them to follow their trades or join paid membership groups.
KOLs are good at making statements that cover both possibilities. When BTC is at $84,000, they might say, “If it holds above $87,000, it's bullish; if it drops below $82,000, watch out for a pullback.” If the price rises, they can say, “I told you it would be bullish if it held above that level.” If it falls, they can say, “I told you it would drop if it broke below that level.” After the fact, they package it as an accurate prediction and present themselves as masters who always make money.
People who make money often don't have a high win rate. It may be only 30%. The price of having a very high win rate is frequent trading. They often set their profit targets extremely low, deliberately manufacturing that high win rate. For example, they might set a take-profit at 0.02%, but a much wider stop-loss, such as 2% or 10%. That inevitably means small wins and big losses!
What you see is only the trades they want you to see. They might give 8 trade calls in a day, 2 of which win and 6 lose, but they'll only talk about the 2 winning trades. That's selective disclosure: they keep screenshots of profits and stay quiet about losses, making themselves look like masters who always make money. Members' groups post screenshots of winning trades, but whenever the market moves, someone buys at the bottom and someone else gets liquidated using high leverage. The blogger only posts screenshots of winning trades; liquidations and stop-losses never get posted. Their annualized return might even be negative—they may be doing worse than you.
Candlestick charts are lagging indicators. Trading by looking at candlestick charts is pretty basic; they're for retail traders.
KOLs mainly make money from exchange referral commissions. The more someone encourages you to trade frequently, the more likely they have ulterior motives. People who genuinely make money trade very infrequently—perhaps only once a month.
Some KOLs only show you “a 90% win rate over the past 7 days” or “300% profit on this trade,” which is of limited value. You need to look at long-term profitability, their trading system, and their trading mindset. Being good at analysis doesn't mean you can make money consistently; a high short-term win rate doesn't mean high long-term returns; showing profitable trades doesn't mean the whole account is profitable; and for people who talk about trading, their steadiest income may not come from trading itself.
What you should learn is how to think about trading, how to build your own trading system, how to think against human nature, and how to think like a market maker.
First of all, a high win rate doesn't mean high returns. If you make 10 trades, winning 9 times still won't make up for one big loss. You can have an 80% win rate and still lose money.
People are constantly shown KOLs bragging, “Take-profit hit again,” “My win rate this month is 80%,” or “Our members have been making money consistently.” They sound very convincing when they analyze candlestick charts. This misleads people into thinking they're really good, enticing them to follow their trades or join paid membership groups.
KOLs are good at making statements that cover both possibilities. When BTC is at $84,000, they might say, “If it holds above $87,000, it's bullish; if it drops below $82,000, watch out for a pullback.” If the price rises, they can say, “I told you it would be bullish if it held above that level.” If it falls, they can say, “I told you it would drop if it broke below that level.” After the fact, they package it as an accurate prediction and present themselves as masters who always make money.
People who make money often don't have a high win rate. It may be only 30%. The price of having a very high win rate is frequent trading. They often set their profit targets extremely low, deliberately manufacturing that high win rate. For example, they might set a take-profit at 0.02%, but a much wider stop-loss, such as 2% or 10%. That inevitably means small wins and big losses!
What you see is only the trades they want you to see. They might give 8 trade calls in a day, 2 of which win and 6 lose, but they'll only talk about the 2 winning trades. That's selective disclosure: they keep screenshots of profits and stay quiet about losses, making themselves look like masters who always make money. Members' groups post screenshots of winning trades, but whenever the market moves, someone buys at the bottom and someone else gets liquidated using high leverage. The blogger only posts screenshots of winning trades; liquidations and stop-losses never get posted. Their annualized return might even be negative—they may be doing worse than you.
Candlestick charts are lagging indicators. Trading by looking at candlestick charts is pretty basic; they're for retail traders.
KOLs mainly make money from exchange referral commissions. The more someone encourages you to trade frequently, the more likely they have ulterior motives. People who genuinely make money trade very infrequently—perhaps only once a month.
Some KOLs only show you “a 90% win rate over the past 7 days” or “300% profit on this trade,” which is of limited value. You need to look at long-term profitability, their trading system, and their trading mindset. Being good at analysis doesn't mean you can make money consistently; a high short-term win rate doesn't mean high long-term returns; showing profitable trades doesn't mean the whole account is profitable; and for people who talk about trading, their steadiest income may not come from trading itself.
What you should learn is how to think about trading, how to build your own trading system, how to think against human nature, and how to think like a market maker.