Everyone should have read the news in the picture, right? Okay, now think about the ideas you just had: think about this—1, 2, 3, stop thinking.

Retail investors: It’s over. Based on past experience, it’s going to plummet. China is cracking down hard on virtual currencies, and cracking down hard on Bitcoin.

First of all, the interpretation in the picture is not a strict ban on virtual currencies or a strict ban on Bitcoin. What it strictly prohibits is this: virtual currencies cannot be used for circulation as currency, but they can be used for circulation as goods. They are not legal tender. That means your profits and losses are your own—you can’t lose money and then sue, because the law doesn’t support your claim. It prohibits activities like providing trading services and illegal operations. But it does not prohibit you from personally holding and trading.

“Whatever the law does not prohibit is lawful.” The law is严谨, and it does not directly say: it is illegal for individuals to hold Bitcoin, or illegal for individuals to trade Bitcoin. It just says that providing trading—such as if you open a trading platform—that would be illegal.

Let’s put it more plainly: is it illegal for two individuals to do this—one person gives U to the other, and the other gives RMB to the first person?

My answer: it’s not illegal, as long as your funds are legal and there’s no involvement in foreign exchange trading, helping someone do illegal activities (帮信), or fraud. A normal U trader is not illegal. In fact, U traders are also individuals trading peer-to-peer with other individuals. The platform they operate on is what is illegal within China.

So the key for a U trader is to judge whether the people you trade with are ordinary normal people, and whether the source of the U is not U from telecom fraud, and whether the money is not fraud money. If you do that step well, then it’s not illegal.

Ordinary people worry they won’t be able to exchange U: but having said that, you just need to make sure the other person’s money isn’t dirty. First, you can only judge as best you can—there’s no way to completely eliminate risk. You can choose a U trader who has been doing it as a business for years, then add them as a WeChat or Alipay contact. Don’t pay directly via QR code; instead, ask them to transfer to your account. Check their transaction history (a lot of days of activity). If there’s transaction history, your risk is much lower, because then you’re not the first person directly handling fraud funds—you’re more like a second-tier participant.

Next, I’ll explain the next post in detail.