阿根战记

#标普500首破7800点创新高

But don’t get too excited, people in the crypto world—this has nothing to do with you!

US stocks hit new highs, AI is surging wildly, but the “same-rises-same-falls” CP that even Bitcoin is still stuck at 63,000 has already broken up. Just look at the monthly chart comparison—it's truly unbearable!

The S&P breaks 7,800, all thanks to a blowout jump in Q2 earnings plus cooling inflation; Citi’s target is directly at 8,100.

But it’s not time to chase US stocks now, because:

AI is burning money too aggressively: the four tech giants have poured $725 billion this year into infrastructure, and the market has started questioning, “Can the money really be earned back?” The voices claiming an AI bubble are getting louder!

Billionaire investor Buffett holds $400 billion in cash but doesn’t dare move; the CAPE valuation is 41x (second only to the dot-com bubble). Another big name—Rogers—has already exited and fled the US stock market.

Jumping in now is basically taking over for institutional big players as their bag-holder. And yes, that’s the one—Binance mindlessly going long on US stocks, with $SNDK as a representative.

Everyone at the institutions is scrambling for AI stocks; the crypto world is being bled dry. Correlation is left with nothing but “falling together.” And once the AI bubble eventually bursts, Bitcoin really could see 30,000!

So the strategy now is to follow the big shots: Buffett’s rule is cash is king; Rogers’ play is take profits when you can. They’re the ones who have truly endured market tests!

In simple terms: US stocks are US stocks, and the crypto world is the crypto world—each plays its own game. Don’t take your neighbor’s firecrackers as your own marching drum; wait patiently for the tide to come.

#美股超话 #比特币 #AI bubble

#美国拟迫各国在美中ai阵营选边
Yesterday, Reuters reported that the U.S. government plans to send letters to 35 countries, forcing them to “choose one” between the China and U.S. AI blocs. Those that join China’s WAICO (currently 29 countries) will be expelled from the U.S.-led “Silicon Peace” alliance (currently 24 countries).

The U.S. is clearly feeling guilty!

Now China’s leading AI model has already moved into the “range” of the U.S.’s top models; the gap has shrunk from “a generation” to “a slight difference.” But in terms of pricing, China’s models are priced at only 1/57 to 1/2 of the U.S.’s.

On performance, the differences are minor, yet the pricing is a massacre. As a result, the market quickly makes a choice: global share already reversed by June this year. China’s AI models have surpassed the U.S. in global usage volume, capturing about two-thirds of the market share, achieving a staggering turnaround within a year.

The U.S.-China AI arms race has forced central banks to “loosen the money supply,” and long-term fiat currency easing is a boon for BTC. However, global tech ecosystem fragmentation threatens cross-chain interoperability. In the short term, funds are being siphoned by AI—so Bitcoin must first drop in respect!

The current trading volume in the crypto market is at an all-time low level:
Bitcoin’s daily spot trading volume is $1.19 billion, only 8% of this year’s February peak of $14.7 billion;

Total trading volume in the crypto market is the lowest since 2023;
Spot trading volume is the lowest since 2019;
ETF trading volume is $1.18 billion, the lowest since their launch.

That means not only retail investors aren’t trading anymore—institutions aren’t trading either!

Against the backdrop of the S&P 500 setting an all-time high and gold rising 10% in a month, the crypto market is shrinking its volume against the trend, with capital accelerating its flight from the crypto space.

You could say that the current crypto trading volume is at the lowest level in six years and the coldest in seven years. The sellers have run out of steam, the buyers haven’t arrived yet, and the market is in the “most suffocating calm before the storm.”

For anyone still saying that Bitcoin and ETH will surge massively, they’re either scammers—or they’re trapped and muddled by losses!

People chasing after the big-rising small-cap coins like TUT, AKE, and ACE—truly great targets for the sickle and the best kind of green onions!

Within the next two months, Bitcoin could start with a “4” or “3.” Since the market hasn’t reached total despair yet, another selloff could be the starting point of the 2028 April halving bull market!

$SNDK is a U.S. stock. As it is the weekend, the U.S. stock market is closed, but on Binance, SNDK can be traded in both contracts and spot!

Then on Monday, when the U.S. stock market opens, the SNDK price on Binance will move toward the U.S. stock price!

So the question is: since there are many bullish SNDK traders on Binance and the price is already higher than the U.S. stock, will it open low and liquidate the longs on Monday?

In the crypto market, things are so cold—BTC’s popularity isn’t even as high as a single U.S. stock!

Let Grok analyze the 1.2K comments on CZ’s tweet. Many people think a $1 million BTC is not a dream!
The U.S. has 23.6 million millionaires, yet BTC has only 21 million, and 2.0–4.0 million coins are permanently lost!
So the question is: Bitcoin’s fifth halving will be in 2028, and the sixth in 2032—at what point in time will BTC reach $1 million?

By then, will you still be in the crypto space?

Some coin friends asked me to talk about the recently skyrocketing $AKE and $ACE ...

These kinds of rapidly surging small-cap coins have been mentioned several times before—for example, the earlier $TUT and $DEXE, and even a dedicated article: 曾经的百倍币DEXE暴跌97%，为什么熊市里暴涨的小币种是陷阱？

It’s basically one sentence: in this kind of market, these suddenly spiking small coins are just there to lure the weed (retail investors) in for the harvest!

If you so much as take another look, you’re already the loser!

The logic is simple: now exchanges are actively embracing compliance, and they’ve also added a lot of traditional finance projects like stocks, forex, and more. Big platforms like Binance are gradually moving into a “more delistings than listings” mode!

These clone coins will eventually be: squeezed out—delisted—set to zero. And before they go to zero, they’ll pump hard to harvest the retail investors. How fun!

So, next time you run into a small coin that suddenly explodes like this—should you pretend you can’t see it?

If you really can’t help the itch, use 100x leverage and go long BTC or ETH instead!

$SNDK Sandisk—the army and the air force are now openly calling each other “SB”!

AI storage is the world’s second largest, behind SK Hynix. As for the US stock—this “high-end” label, yet it now behaves like a knockoff coin:

In the first half of this year it surged from $40 to $2,354, up 858%, then it plunged 47% in July alone—top to bottom, it got cut in half at its peak!

These past few days, it jumped 13.67% in one day and then 7.39% the next day, thanks to the “good news” that eight customers signed long-term agreements, with guaranteed revenue of $93.9 billion. And it rebounded another 60% from the lows!

With this kind of volatility, if you don’t know better, it looks like a meme coin. People with weaker hearts won’t be able to handle it.

So as someone who never beats around the bush, I’m bearish right now—and first, I want to say to the bulls of $SNDK : SB!

Reasons:
1. The halving-like crash was on high volume—meaning the main players are distributing (selling);
2. This rally is driven by news and fundamentals. I’ve always been wary of price moves caused by news;
3. From June last year to June this year, it rose nearly 10x—there are just too many profit-takers;
4. Now many people and institutions are bullish, saying it can go above 2,200—like how people in 2021 looked at BTC $100k, and in 2025 looked at BTC $200k. If it were that simple, it wouldn’t have failed to reach those numbers!
5. Chinese manufacturers, led by Unisplendour (Founder/ChangXin), have truly entered the market and brought real competitive pressure.

So be cautious buying spot; short on futures! Or just watch for now!

At the moment, Binance is “pumping” over 7,000 US stocks—more opportunities, but also 7,000 more scythes!

币圈周行情前沿：暴风雨前的死寂？巨鲸正在“互撕”，短期闭眼空

This week (8.10-8.14) in the crypto world, summarized in one sentence: the big pie marches sideways— even the altcoin dogs are disgusted!
The giant whales are fighting, and the long vs. short split is extremely intense; they fling insults at each other!
Institutional money is only being “single-core driven” by BlackRock!
Meanwhile in Iran, oil tankers are in a standoff, and there’s an internal split within the Fed—rates hikes are coming!

BTC: Short blindly around 64,500 on the bounce (stop loss 65,500), first target 62,500. If it breaks below 62,000, then look at 60,000 directly.

ETH: Short around 1,900 (stop loss 1,940), first target 1,850. If it breaks below 1,820, then look at 1725 directly.

Remember: the longer it chops sideways, the higher the vertical move—no matter long or short, don’t hold onto positions; life comes first!

Why did the U.S. July CPI and PPI come in below expectations, but the crypto market reacted mildly?
After a small rebound, Bitcoin and ETH immediately fell back!

Because market liquidity has dried up. One intuitive data point: the current spot BTC daily trading volume is already at the lowest level since 2019!

You could say that right now, the crypto market is like an “empty street at dawn”—no foot traffic at all!

For comparison: this month, the S&P 500 saw a market-cap increase of over $200 billion, yet Bitcoin is not only not rising—it’s falling!

That’s also why Binance is going all-in on U.S. stocks: even if there are regulatory risks, it’s still better than starving to death!

In 2026, crypto exchanges are collectively “changing careers”:
Binance lists 7,000 US stocks, generating 1 billion trading volume in 30 days.
OKX has leaned into the New York Stock Exchange’s parent company.
Gate puts oil, gold, and foreign exchange into the order book.
Coinbase wants to build a “full-service exchange,” packaging stock and options AI together.
This isn’t just one company trying to outdo others—it's the whole industry sprinting in the same direction.

For ordinary players, this is the best era—and also the most “cutthroat” era:
In the past, when the crypto market crashed, the stock market might still be rising.
Now everyone is on the same boat; with every change in the wind, it’s “a double hit to both stocks and crypto.”

For low-cap altcoins, this may be the last chance: with US stocks, FX, and ETFs—who would still buy worthless air coins?!
<0>$TUT $DEXE </0> These low-cap altcoins are surging now; the underlying logic is that the big players sense their end—so before they go, they pump once, cutting as much “sellable grass” as they can!

“TradFi时刻”，币圈会消失吗？李林携UMX杀回，币安狂上7000股，加密和股市正式“领证结婚”！更多机会 OR 股币双杀？

Bitcoin keeps hitting new lows, while ETH is surprisingly a bit more steady. However, it doesn’t really help—things will only drop even harder later on!
As mentioned at the beginning of the month: August is for a rebound, then mainly a slow grind lower.
Right now we’re just waiting for Bitcoin to break below 6.

U.S. Crypto Regulation Series Update: Congress doves out, the SEC takes matters into its own hands

After waiting a year for the “savior” CLARITY (the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act)—the House passed it and the committee also moved it forward. But when it came to a full Senate vote… it was shelved (confirmed postponed on August 6, and will be taken up again on September 15). On Polymarket, the probability of passage this year has plummeted from 82% to 21%—what a disaster!

With Congress laid back, SEC Chair Atkins decided to go around it. On August 14, she pushed a Regulation Crypto proposal. The core shift is that the SEC is moving from its former “chasing-and-punishing” approach to “leading the way”—telling you the rules and how to obtain exemptions, so you don’t have to rely on lawyers to guess anymore.

But don’t get too excited: August 14 only decides whether to publish it for public comment. The earliest it could formally take effect is 2027. So for now, it’s more like a signal: regulatory certainty is pushing its way out of the executive branch.

In the short term, the impact on market sentiment may be limited. In the long term, though: bullish for Bitcoin, bearish for altcoins! Bitcoin’s status is already clarified, the framework is being built, and a host of altcoins now have to keep “guessing” whether they count as securities—and whether they’ll be targeted by regulators.

$TUT has already dropped by 80%, and there really are big shots coming in and getting slaughtered for over a million USDT;
No. 9 said that in two or three days it would collapse—this just happens to be a three-day collapse!

Don’t fantasize that it can rise again, or that every rebound is a chance to stop-loss and cut losses. Otherwise, after you get cut at the floor, there are still eighteen levels of hell!$BTC

曾经的百倍币DEXE暴跌97%，为什么熊市里暴涨的小币种是陷阱？

U.S. CPI at 3.4%, and the data meets expectations. As we said this afternoon:
Bitcoin spikes to 64,500—65,000 USD, ETH: 1925-1945;
then it goes back to where it came from! Everything hit its exact target point.

The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September has slightly decreased, but we’ll have to watch the PCE data on the 26th!

For now, it’s still mostly about staying high in the sky, because traditional financial markets are collapsing—it’s just not yet turned into a prairie fire!

US CPI is imminent, and big players inside and outside the crypto market are betting on shorts:

In crypto, four wallets around the $64,000 mark have collectively opened Bitcoin short positions worth about $340 million;
Meanwhile, Wall Street trend-following hedge funds have already set a record for the largest net short position in U.S. Treasury futures. Betting that US inflation will be slow to ease in the short term.

Looks like tonight’s CPI data may ignite the market! Check back again at 8:30!

Tonight at 8:30 PM, the U.S. July CPI data will be released. After five weeks of range-bound trading, the market may finally break out! Here’s the plan directly.

In line with expectations (3.4%), highest probability: push up to $64,500–65,000; ETH: 1925–1945;
then it should retrace back where it came from.

Below expectations (<3.3%), the biggest market shock: September rate hikes are basically off the table,
BTC may take the chance to surge to $67,000–68,000; ETH: to around $2000.

Above expectations (>3.5%): “stagflation trade” kicks in. BTC will retrace and test $62,000, or even $60,000; ETH: $1800 and $1725.

Simply put: the current market isn’t about whether the data is “good” or “bad,” it depends on how much the data deviates from expectations.

After five weeks of sideways consolidation, tonight it will most likely choose a direction. But remember—at the exact moment the data is released, volatility will spring open like a spring. Only the ones who survive get the right to talk about profits.