Nonfarm data release: nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000, and the unemployment rate is 4.2%.
Overall, the nonfarm data is purely positive. Although there are recession worries, the data isn’t bad enough—“bad enough” to trigger recession panic.
After the good news impact from what BTC said earlier this morning, it still hasn’t fully reached $88,000—it's only about 1% away.
Overall, the market’s reaction to this data isn’t as big as expected, possibly because nonfarm data is often revised significantly, and the market is gradually losing trust in it.
The key data the market is paying more attention to now is the CPI data to be released on the 14th at 20:30.
At present, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October according to CME has fallen to 17.2%. This isn’t really good news. As mentioned during Wednesday’s livestream: if there’s no rate hike in October, and inflation still hasn’t been brought under control, then Wosh will have to explain after the interest rate decision is released this month—why they didn’t raise rates to curb inflation. After all, Wosh has said the most important task for the Fed right now is to control inflation—so that could turn hawkish.
Then, in the early hours of October 29 at 02:00 Beijing time, when the Fed’s rate decision lands, it could turn what seemed like a positive into a negative.
For now, before the end of the National Day holiday, Bitcoin is likely to continue ranging between 82,500 and 88,000, while ETH continues ranging between 2,630 and 2,810. As was said in Wednesday’s livestream: near resistance, short; near support, go long.
Overall, the nonfarm data is purely positive. Although there are recession worries, the data isn’t bad enough—“bad enough” to trigger recession panic.
After the good news impact from what BTC said earlier this morning, it still hasn’t fully reached $88,000—it's only about 1% away.
Overall, the market’s reaction to this data isn’t as big as expected, possibly because nonfarm data is often revised significantly, and the market is gradually losing trust in it.
The key data the market is paying more attention to now is the CPI data to be released on the 14th at 20:30.
At present, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October according to CME has fallen to 17.2%. This isn’t really good news. As mentioned during Wednesday’s livestream: if there’s no rate hike in October, and inflation still hasn’t been brought under control, then Wosh will have to explain after the interest rate decision is released this month—why they didn’t raise rates to curb inflation. After all, Wosh has said the most important task for the Fed right now is to control inflation—so that could turn hawkish.
Then, in the early hours of October 29 at 02:00 Beijing time, when the Fed’s rate decision lands, it could turn what seemed like a positive into a negative.
For now, before the end of the National Day holiday, Bitcoin is likely to continue ranging between 82,500 and 88,000, while ETH continues ranging between 2,630 and 2,810. As was said in Wednesday’s livestream: near resistance, short; near support, go long.