The previous tweet said that the current market situation is: not a bull market! It’s more like the “monkey market” of 2019!

In the future, it will most likely keep falling back to grind the base, shake out the market.

In 2019, after Bitcoin kept rising for 3 months, it then fell back to the bottom and traded in a range again. It didn’t rise again until around the 2020 halving. (See the chart below.)

But some friends also say: why isn’t it more like the end of 2022—after a pump, it goes into consolidation, but doesn’t drop, and then keeps pumping?

Both of these time points’ price action can be used as reference for comparison with the current situation.

But I lean more toward 2019 because:

1. This time, the bottom hasn’t been range-bound. It fell to the low of 58,000 in July, and then directly rose in August. Without a range-bound “bottom,” that isn’t really a bottom. Later, it will definitely come back to range and shake out the market until 90% of retail investors are washed out.

2. 2022 went through 6 months of grinding the base—even grinding into new lows. Only after most retail investors broadly surrendered did it have the momentum to pump all the way up.

3. The rallies in 2019 and now are both driven by external factors: in 2019 it was the start of the Fed cutting rates; this year in August it was liquidity brought by the U.S. Treasury + the squeeze that triggered the “shorts getting liquidated.”

The future path is:

1. Late October 2026 to early November, this wave of upside ends (maybe earlier). Around 95,000–98,000, everyone will be shouting 100,000—but you won’t actually reach 100,000.

2. December 2026 to September 2027: range-bound grinding the base.

3. In October 2027, the fifth halving bull market starts. In April 2028, the fifth Bitcoin halving is completed.

Timestamp: 2026-09-24 18:09.