Bitcoin just started work and came to test $82,800—bulls’ key support level!
From a technical perspective, for the first time in 45 weeks, BTC has regained the 50-week moving average. Historically, this signal often marks the end of a bear market’s low point. The 4-hour timeframe is severely oversold, creating a near-term demand for a rebound.
From market data, since 2020 long-term holders have accumulated over 3 million BTC. In the supply, about 81% has not moved for at least 6 months, and the chip structure is clearly concentrated toward long-term holders.
Exchange reserves have dropped to around 2.7 million coins, close to historical lows. The main pressure is in derivatives—meaning there are quite a few people who are leveraged and chasing longs; without a liquidation/burst, the market can’t be pulled up.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $2.4 billion last week, the highest one-week figure in 2026, though it has declined day by day, weakening the momentum of the bulls.
Looking at the broader external environment: the Fed is expected to keep hiking rates. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has reached the high range of 5.12%–5.18%. Uncertainty from the U.S.–Iran conflict persists. Brent crude broke above $106, and the U.S. dollar index rose from 100.95 to 101.15.
For the short term, you can consider going long:
BTC long from 82,500–83,000, take profit at 85,000, stop loss at 81,500;
ETH long from 2,610–2,630, take profit at 2,700, stop loss at 2,550;
Overall, Bitcoin itself is currently relatively bullish, but the broader external environment is bearish. If the broader conditions continue to deteriorate, Bitcoin will definitely fall too—after all, blooming in winter is basically suicidal!
From a technical perspective, for the first time in 45 weeks, BTC has regained the 50-week moving average. Historically, this signal often marks the end of a bear market’s low point. The 4-hour timeframe is severely oversold, creating a near-term demand for a rebound.
From market data, since 2020 long-term holders have accumulated over 3 million BTC. In the supply, about 81% has not moved for at least 6 months, and the chip structure is clearly concentrated toward long-term holders.
Exchange reserves have dropped to around 2.7 million coins, close to historical lows. The main pressure is in derivatives—meaning there are quite a few people who are leveraged and chasing longs; without a liquidation/burst, the market can’t be pulled up.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $2.4 billion last week, the highest one-week figure in 2026, though it has declined day by day, weakening the momentum of the bulls.
Looking at the broader external environment: the Fed is expected to keep hiking rates. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has reached the high range of 5.12%–5.18%. Uncertainty from the U.S.–Iran conflict persists. Brent crude broke above $106, and the U.S. dollar index rose from 100.95 to 101.15.
For the short term, you can consider going long:
BTC long from 82,500–83,000, take profit at 85,000, stop loss at 81,500;
ETH long from 2,610–2,630, take profit at 2,700, stop loss at 2,550;
Overall, Bitcoin itself is currently relatively bullish, but the broader external environment is bearish. If the broader conditions continue to deteriorate, Bitcoin will definitely fall too—after all, blooming in winter is basically suicidal!