有米06
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有米06
菜鸡交易员 只分享趣事
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This person sitting by the pool on a folding chair has the seat already torn open; he’s sunk into it, with his butt almost touching the ground. Next to him, someone reaches out to pull him, but he braces himself on the armrests and pushes hard—at first he can’t get up, and he can’t stop laughing.
Later, he managed to push himself up and walk away on his own—the chair had slumped and collapsed into a crumpled heap on the ground.
Later, he managed to push himself up and walk away on his own—the chair had slumped and collapsed into a crumpled heap on the ground.
Saw the Kobeissi chart of S&P 500 options—August 27 and August 28 were separately labeled as NVIDIA earnings and the Jackson Hole (event) for those two days. This is the implied volatility used by exchange-traded options to price the index each day; it’s not the intraday rise/fall that already happened, and it’s not the VIX points.
In another post on Twitter, he wrote that on the 27th it was about 0.75% and on the 28th about 0.70%; those numbers were not printed on the chart. NVIDIA earnings were after the market close on August 26; the official Jackson Hole schedule is August 27 to 29—so it’s not the same statement as what he wrote on Twitter, calling the 28th the opening day.
In another post on Twitter, he wrote that on the 27th it was about 0.75% and on the 28th about 0.70%; those numbers were not printed on the chart. NVIDIA earnings were after the market close on August 26; the official Jackson Hole schedule is August 27 to 29—so it’s not the same statement as what he wrote on Twitter, calling the 28th the opening day.
At the shop entrance, this man is holding a bucket of water and splashes it onto the two people by the roadside. After he’s done, he turns around and runs into the store. He swings the door shut, and the two people outside follow and start filming the glass.
Inside, he’s holding a tray of breakfast and facing the camera, with a sign on the door that says “closed for the night.”
Inside, he’s holding a tray of breakfast and facing the camera, with a sign on the door that says “closed for the night.”
When I got the image of this Chinese chip that says “Kobeissi,” and looking at the total industry-wide sales revenue in RMB, it has already passed the 1.6 trillion-yuan tier. This is neither export value nor any company’s own revenue.
He also wrote separately on Twitter that, year over year, growth in 2025 is 22%, about $245 billion; those figures aren’t printed on the chart. The industry association’s published 2025 total industry sales value is 173.31 billion yuan (up 20.2% year over year), and it isn’t the same figure as that tier which isn’t labeled on the chart.
He also wrote separately on Twitter that, year over year, growth in 2025 is 22%, about $245 billion; those figures aren’t printed on the chart. The industry association’s published 2025 total industry sales value is 173.31 billion yuan (up 20.2% year over year), and it isn’t the same figure as that tier which isn’t labeled on the chart.
At the wedding venue, these candles are arranged in a heart shape, and the two people stand in the middle holding hands. Nearby, someone is crouching down, moving forward along the candle circle—walking while lighting the candles.
The two people are also looking at each other; the person who was crouching has already moved into the frame. As for whether it’s a rehearsal, the footage doesn’t show.
The two people are also looking at each other; the person who was crouching has already moved into the frame. As for whether it’s a rehearsal, the footage doesn’t show.
Glassnode shows on this chart the percentage change in Bitcoin’s close versus the previous daily (1D) K-line close: +2.3%. In the same window, the S&P 500 is -0.4%. This is the 10-minute closing gain/loss from Aug 17 to 19:30 UTC—not a long-term ratio of Bitcoin versus the S&P 500, and not the official closing figures from after the US stock market bell.
The chart’s gold label shows +0.9%, and the EURO STOXX 50 shows -0.2%. As for how often situations like this—outperforming stocks in a single day—occur recently, the chart itself doesn’t provide the frequency.
The chart’s gold label shows +0.9%, and the EURO STOXX 50 shows -0.2%. As for how often situations like this—outperforming stocks in a single day—occur recently, the chart itself doesn’t provide the frequency.
Monitor this spot facing the sidewalk; this person is sitting on a light green electric bicycle, looking down at something in their hands. Over on the other side of the road, a piece of white plastic tarpaulin is blown by the wind and lands directly on his back, puffing up into a kind of cape.
He scrambles and pulls at it on the bike, and the cloth keeps wrapping over his head. In the end, he’s still sitting on the seat, tearing that layer of cloth open.
He scrambles and pulls at it on the bike, and the cloth keeps wrapping over his head. In the end, he’s still sitting on the seat, tearing that layer of cloth open.
In this ranking of stablecoin market cap growth over the past 7 days, Token Terminal has RLUSD in first place. The chart shows +$132 million. This is the 7-day market cap change—not RLUSD’s current total supply, and not how many coins were newly minted on a particular day.
I just saw their chart from August 17. The metric listed is “Market cap growth by asset, past 7 days, Stablecoins.” The top five on the chart all have numbers printed: RLUSD +$132 million, rwaUSDi +$50.6 million, USDGO +$49.0 million, USDe +$32.7 million, and U +$32.4 million. There’s also another group with circulating market cap on CoinGecko of about $1.73 billion—that’s a stock (existing supply) basis, so don’t combine it with this chart’s 7-day incremental figures into the same number.
#RLUSD #稳定币 #Cryptocurrency
I just saw their chart from August 17. The metric listed is “Market cap growth by asset, past 7 days, Stablecoins.” The top five on the chart all have numbers printed: RLUSD +$132 million, rwaUSDi +$50.6 million, USDGO +$49.0 million, USDe +$32.7 million, and U +$32.4 million. There’s also another group with circulating market cap on CoinGecko of about $1.73 billion—that’s a stock (existing supply) basis, so don’t combine it with this chart’s 7-day incremental figures into the same number.
#RLUSD #稳定币 #Cryptocurrency
On the subway platform edge, this person has both hands pressed against the side of the train car, their body thrusting forward as if using their hands to push the train away. The train is already moving, yet they still run along with it along the safety line.
As for whether the train was actually pushed away by them, the footage doesn’t show it. The platform sign says Downtown & Brooklyn, and there are people sitting inside the windows.
As for whether the train was actually pushed away by them, the footage doesn’t show it. The platform sign says Downtown & Brooklyn, and there are people sitting inside the windows.
Leveraged ETFs listed in the U.S. have already shown net exposure that is clearly higher than assets under management. This is the exposure measure for U.S. leveraged products—not the inflows and outflows of Bitcoin spot ETF funds, and not the position size of any specific stock.
I just saw a Goldman Sachs chart that Kobeissi posted on August 17. The title is “US-Listed Levered ETF AUM vs. Net Exposure,” with the unit in billions of dollars and a time window drawn from August 2025 to August 2026. In the post, net exposure is written as roughly $420 billion and AUM as roughly $180 billion. It also says that over the past three weeks, exposure increased by about $100 billion, and AUM increased by about $40 billion. These specific figures are written in the post; the red box in the chart only frames the latest segment and doesn’t print “420” and “180” as readable labels. The gap between the two lines comes from the leverage multiple, so you can’t take AUM directly as a proxy for market impact.
#ETF #美股 #crypto
I just saw a Goldman Sachs chart that Kobeissi posted on August 17. The title is “US-Listed Levered ETF AUM vs. Net Exposure,” with the unit in billions of dollars and a time window drawn from August 2025 to August 2026. In the post, net exposure is written as roughly $420 billion and AUM as roughly $180 billion. It also says that over the past three weeks, exposure increased by about $100 billion, and AUM increased by about $40 billion. These specific figures are written in the post; the red box in the chart only frames the latest segment and doesn’t print “420” and “180” as readable labels. The gap between the two lines comes from the leverage multiple, so you can’t take AUM directly as a proxy for market impact.
#ETF #美股 #crypto
In the parking lot at night, this person opens the car door and slips inside. The car is so narrow it looks like half of it has been cut off lengthwise; he drives it around on an empty lot, swaying back and forth.
Then the scene cuts to daytime. The same small car drives along the street, and then cuts again to it parked beside a prefab work shed, next to a van of normal width. As for whether it can actually be driven on the road, the footage doesn’t show.
Then the scene cuts to daytime. The same small car drives along the street, and then cuts again to it parked beside a prefab work shed, next to a van of normal width. As for whether it can actually be driven on the road, the footage doesn’t show.
Entered a DeFi protocol and found the real-world assets actually being used on-chain: DefiLlama’s “RWA DeFi Active TVL” chart has already received around $4 billion. This is on-chain locked collateral in use—not tokenized assets sitting in wallets, and not the entire circulating supply of RWA.
I just saw their chart from August 17: the window runs from 2023 to July 2026. The total amount is pinned to the 4B mark on the chart; the spoken line “nearly 4B” is rounded. Another article dated August 18, written with the same framing, records this frame as $3.98 billion—don’t force it into the same number. The 12 million and “300x” mentioned in the post are their own three-year comparison figures; these two numbers are not printed on the chart.
#RWA #DeFi #cryptocurrency
I just saw their chart from August 17: the window runs from 2023 to July 2026. The total amount is pinned to the 4B mark on the chart; the spoken line “nearly 4B” is rounded. Another article dated August 18, written with the same framing, records this frame as $3.98 billion—don’t force it into the same number. The 12 million and “300x” mentioned in the post are their own three-year comparison figures; these two numbers are not printed on the chart.
#RWA #DeFi #cryptocurrency
This camera position in the car is fixed behind the windshield. In front, on the dirt track, several cars squeeze together and drive past; the dust suddenly flies up and smears the view, and the camera tilts along with it.
This isn’t a public road—it’s the kind of track built for people to crash around for fun. Even in the rearview mirror, the helmet is still shaking. As for whether anyone is hurt, you can’t tell from the footage.
This isn’t a public road—it’s the kind of track built for people to crash around for fun. Even in the rearview mirror, the helmet is still shaking. As for whether anyone is hurt, you can’t tell from the footage.
The Bitcoin premium index on Coinbase has been staying below the zero line for 102 consecutive days. This is Coinbase’s price-difference index relative to global exchanges; it is not about ETF fund inflows/outflows, nor about how many coins someone moved on-chain.
I just saw a chart on CryptoQuant on August 17, with a window drawn from January 2026 to August. In this particular frame, the index is set around -0.108; the spoken figure -0.10 is rounded, so don’t compress it to the same number. The 102 days are written in the post, but that day count is not printed on the chart. Separately, another metric as of August 12 counts the consecutive number of days with negative values as 86 days and closes at -0.1073%; this is not the same window segment as the 102-day set.
A negative index only indicates that Coinbase is relatively cheaper; you can’t determine how things will go next based on that alone.
#比特币 #Coinbase #加密货币
I just saw a chart on CryptoQuant on August 17, with a window drawn from January 2026 to August. In this particular frame, the index is set around -0.108; the spoken figure -0.10 is rounded, so don’t compress it to the same number. The 102 days are written in the post, but that day count is not printed on the chart. Separately, another metric as of August 12 counts the consecutive number of days with negative values as 86 days and closes at -0.1073%; this is not the same window segment as the 102-day set.
A negative index only indicates that Coinbase is relatively cheaper; you can’t determine how things will go next based on that alone.
#比特币 #Coinbase #加密货币
The air fryer drawer on the countertop is open, and it’s filled with oil; the fries are bubbling in the oil. There’s also a piece of glass on top, with the tongs resting on the lid.
When you buy an air fryer, the first thing you do is use it as a fryer for oil.
When you buy an air fryer, the first thing you do is use it as a fryer for oil.
This research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimates the medium-term “real natural” interest rate at about 1.5%. This is the paper’s framing—it’s not that the FOMC has already been running its decisions at 1.5%, and it’s also not that the authorities have already described the current policy stance as accommodative.
I just saw the San Francisco Fed’s Economic Letter dated August 17, 2026 that Timiraos posted today. Using inflation, growth, and interest-rate data from 1987 through Q4 2025, the author estimates the medium-term real natural rate at roughly 1.5% and marks a 90% uncertainty interval. The letter writes the target range for the federal funds rate as 3.5% to 3.75%, then subtracts about 3% inflation to derive a real rate of roughly 0.5% to 0.75%, and compares that to 1.5%. Timiraos, on his own, subtracts a baseline inflation of at least 2.5%, which is not the same set of assumptions as the roughly 3% used in the article. This is also not the same figure as the smoother long-run measure used in Holston et al.’s 2023 note. The author’s uncertainty interval is quite wide, and the Economic Letter is not the same as an official Board of Governors viewpoint.
#美联储 #利率 #宏观经济
I just saw the San Francisco Fed’s Economic Letter dated August 17, 2026 that Timiraos posted today. Using inflation, growth, and interest-rate data from 1987 through Q4 2025, the author estimates the medium-term real natural rate at roughly 1.5% and marks a 90% uncertainty interval. The letter writes the target range for the federal funds rate as 3.5% to 3.75%, then subtracts about 3% inflation to derive a real rate of roughly 0.5% to 0.75%, and compares that to 1.5%. Timiraos, on his own, subtracts a baseline inflation of at least 2.5%, which is not the same set of assumptions as the roughly 3% used in the article. This is also not the same figure as the smoother long-run measure used in Holston et al.’s 2023 note. The author’s uncertainty interval is quite wide, and the Economic Letter is not the same as an official Board of Governors viewpoint.
#美联储 #利率 #宏观经济
In the airport hall, someone raised their leg and kicked; the shoe flew right out. Behind them, a whole line of people was still waiting in line to check in, while she stood there with only one foot bare.
Even after her shoe fell, she didn’t stop and kept turning in the middle. The departures hall floor was slippery, and the sign next to it still read, “Your journey begins here.”
Even after her shoe fell, she didn’t stop and kept turning in the middle. The departures hall floor was slippery, and the sign next to it still read, “Your journey begins here.”
The interest on public debt paid by the U.S. Department of the Treasury over the past 12 months—this chart has been marked at roughly $1.4 trillion. This is the interest payment, not a deficit breaking $1.4 trillion, and not an additional jump in the outstanding debt balance.
What Kobeissi posted today is that rolling interest chart from Bank of America Global Strategy, with the window stopping at July 2026. The metric is the U.S. Treasury’s “interest expense on outstanding public debt,” summed month by month for the 12 months, including the government account series as well—not net interest after deducting interest income, and not the slice of spending from fiscal year 2026 to date. If you add the official monthly figures from August 2025 to July 2026, it totals about $1.37 trillion, which is not the same rounded figure as the “about $1.4 trillion” mentioned in the chart. For all of fiscal year 2020, using the same methodology, it’s about $522.8 billion. The chart also includes a hypothetical line: assuming interest rates stay roughly the same, it would be plotted at around $1.7 trillion in November 2028—that’s a scenario and hasn’t happened yet.
#美债 #宏观经济 #国债
What Kobeissi posted today is that rolling interest chart from Bank of America Global Strategy, with the window stopping at July 2026. The metric is the U.S. Treasury’s “interest expense on outstanding public debt,” summed month by month for the 12 months, including the government account series as well—not net interest after deducting interest income, and not the slice of spending from fiscal year 2026 to date. If you add the official monthly figures from August 2025 to July 2026, it totals about $1.37 trillion, which is not the same rounded figure as the “about $1.4 trillion” mentioned in the chart. For all of fiscal year 2020, using the same methodology, it’s about $522.8 billion. The chart also includes a hypothetical line: assuming interest rates stay roughly the same, it would be plotted at around $1.7 trillion in November 2028—that’s a scenario and hasn’t happened yet.
#美债 #宏观经济 #国债
In the gym, this person sits on a bench, bends his waist backward. Two dumbbells rest on his shoulders, his eyes closed, clenching his teeth. The person behind him stands, with his hand holding the other man's elbow.
Before he even presses up, his face tightens first. A water bottle lies on the floor—this set is being forced through by sheer endurance.
Before he even presses up, his face tightens first. A water bottle lies on the floor—this set is being forced through by sheer endurance.
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