I looked at the#IFINDdatabase terminal and saw the macro strategy outlook for 2024 of the top 20 institutions in the country.
To sum up in a few words:
1. Interest rate cuts will begin in the second half of 2024.
2. The Kondratieff recession cycle in the United States is coming late but is expected to appear in Q2-Q3.
3. The U.S. stock market is in the "fat tail" stage, and the slowdown in earnings and the repair of valuations will create a contradiction.
4. Three major risks of vulnerability: personal credit default risk, commercial real estate credit risk, and weakening labor market.
5. The judgment on the trend of major asset classes in 2024 is as follows:
U.S. Treasuries: "V-shaped" trend, 10Y yield fell in the first half of the year and rebounded in the second half, with the annual central rate being around 4%.
U.S. stocks: “N-shaped” trend, with a continued rebound from the end of the year to Q1, a phased adjustment in Q2-Q3, and then a resumption of growth.
Cryptocurrency: "N-shaped" trend, falling before the US stock market, rising and then falling in January in conjunction with ETFs, with phased adjustments in Q1-Q2, waiting for macroeconomic easing before rising again.
Exchange rate: "L-shaped" trend, the US dollar fell in the first half of the year, the RMB appreciated, and there may be some reversals in the second half of the year. Gold: "Λ-shaped" trend, with a high probability of rising in the first half of the year and pressure for a correction in the second half of the year.
