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Cardano Price Faces Decline Ahead of CME Futures Launch on February 9
Key Insights:
Cardano’s price dropped to $0.25, impacted by a 5.2% pullback in the broader crypto market, including BTC's fall below $65,000.
CME will launch Cardano Futures on February 9, offering institutional traders more options, which may lead to market volatility.
Despite CME Futures launch, Cardano's price outlook remains bearish with low open interest and declining market sentiment.
The price of Cardano (ADA) saw a significant drop below $0.26 on Friday, continuing a streak of consecutive red candlesticks throughout the week. Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency has traded at $0.25685 after a sharp 20% drop, fueling concerns among investors. This decline comes amid a broader pullback in the cryptocurrency market, with the overall market capitalization falling by 5.2% to $2.28 trillion. Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent dip below $65,000 has contributed to widespread panic, impacting major coins like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP.
Despite the challenging market environment, a potential catalyst is on the horizon. CME Group will introduce Cardano futures contracts on February 9, 2026. This new offering will provide institutional traders with more exposure to Cardano, further diversifying the growing crypto derivatives market.
The CME will offer both standard and micro Cardano futures contracts. The standard contract will represent 100,000 ADA, while the micro contract will cover 10,000 ADA, allowing smaller institutional traders to participate. These futures will be priced using the CME CF New York Variant Index, ensuring transparency in pricing.
Impact of Futures Launch on ADA Price
The launch of Cardano futures on the CME derivatives exchange could add volatility to the market, depending on the level of institutional interest. Futures contracts offer traders opportunities for hedging or speculating on the price movements of Cardano, potentially driving demand for the token.
Source: TradingView
However, the price action remains under pressure due to a larger bearish trend in the market. ADA’s long-to-short ratio fell to 0.90, suggesting that many traders anticipate further declines. Additionally, the open interest (OI) in Cardano futures has dropped to its lowest level since November 2024, standing at $90 million.
Cardano’s Price Struggles Amid Market Uncertainty
Currently, Cardano is testing its support level around $0.25, with fluctuations in price leading to uncertainty. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 28.10 signal that the token is oversold and may be due for a rebound. However, the MACD indicator shows continued bearish momentum as the MACD line remains below the signal line. Traders and investors alike are closely watching the $0.25 support level, as a further drop could bring ADA closer to $0.23 or even below $0.20.
As the market sentiment remains negative and with market volatility expected around the futures launch, it remains unclear whether Cardano’s price will see a major rebound in the coming weeks.
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From Silence to Surge: CRV Tracks the Historic Bases of Silver and XRP
CRV shows late-stage accumulation behavior similar to Silver and XRP before major upside expansions.
Extended price silence often signals absorption rather than market failure.
Historical base breakouts demonstrate how compressed ranges can unwind rapidly.
CRV price accumulation is being compared with historical base structures in Silver and XRP. Market observers note that prolonged silence and compressed volatility often precede sharp expansions after years of consolidation.
Markets Often Build Strength During Extended Silence
Long periods of inactivity have historically shaped some of the most powerful market reversals. Silver spent nearly two decades trading inside a narrow range while investor interest steadily disappeared.
By the early 2000s, it was widely dismissed as irrelevant within both industrial and monetary discussions. Technical analysts later described that period as absorption rather than decline.
Selling pressure weakened as strong holders accumulated positions over time. Volatility contracted until the price structure could no longer contain further compression.
When Silver finally broke upward, the move covered decades of resistance within only a few years. A similar narrative appeared in XRP’s multi-year trading range.
After prolonged regulatory pressure and persistent negative commentary, price action stabilized within a defined high-timeframe zone.
When the breakout occurred, it reached prior range highs within weeks, reflecting stored liquidity rather than new fundamental discovery.
CRV Price Accumulation and Structural Position
CRV price accumulation now draws attention because of comparable multi-year compression. Since its early volatility phase, CRV has trended lower before entering extended horizontal movement.
Repeated tests of the same demand region have reduced speculative interest and thinned short-term participation. Market structure observers describe this pattern as late-stage accumulation behavior.
Distribution typically appears with expanding volatility and unstable ranges. CRV instead shows narrowing price bands and declining momentum across higher timeframes.
These conditions resemble earlier phases seen in Silver and XRP before their rapid expansions.
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Hyperliquid, Aster, and Lighter led Feb 5 trading, showing strong user preference for major perpetual DEXs.
Daily perp volumes spiked repeatedly since October, signaling a dynamic and fast-moving crypto trading market.
Early 2026 saw a rebound in activity, hinting at renewed trader confidence despite ongoing market sell-offs.
Perpetual decentralized exchanges (DEXs) surged to historic trading volumes on February 5, recording over $70 billion. According to DeFiLlama, this marked the second-highest daily volume in history, trailing only the October 10, 2025 “1011” flash crash.
Hyperliquid led the charge with $24.7 billion, followed by Aster at $10 billion, edgeX at $8.7 billion, and Lighter at $7.5 billion. This extraordinary activity reflects both market volatility and renewed trader interest amidst ongoing sell-offs.
Total daily volumes across the top 20 perpetual protocols were tracked by DeFiLlama from October 2025 through early February 2026. The result shows regularly recurring spikes and protocol-specific dominance. During the first period, from October up to early November, daily volumes often peaked around $75–$80 billion.
Lighter Perps and Hyperliquid Perps consistently drove these spikes, supported by Aster Perps and EdgeX Perps. Meanwhile, smaller protocols such as Extended, Grvt, Apex Omni, Variational, and Nado Perp contributed marginally.
Fluctuating Volumes and December Spikes
After mid-November, the market settled into a lower range, averaging $20–$60 billion daily. However, December saw several sharp volume bursts, signaling sporadic but intense trading activity. Traders seemed to respond quickly to market signals, exploiting short-term opportunities.
Additionally, protocol dominance remained consistent, with Hyperliquid, Aster, and Lighter retaining the largest market shares. Hence, these platforms continued attracting the bulk of trading capital.
Entering 2026, the market initially cooled, with daily perp volumes between $15–$40 billion. Nevertheless, late January and early February brought a clear resurgence, pushing total volumes near $70 billion. Consequently, traders demonstrated renewed confidence, possibly anticipating larger price movements.
Moreover, Hyperliquid, Aster, and Lighter Perps again led the surge, highlighting persistent user preference for top-tier protocols. Overall, the market shows both resilience and selective growth among dominant platforms.
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Bitcoin faced a sharp downturn this week, falling to $60,001 for the first time since October 2024. The crash, driven by whale and institutional selling, triggered liquidations across exchanges. According to Santiment, wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC now control just 68.04% of the total Bitcoin supply, marking a nine-month low. In the past eight days alone, these large holders offloaded 81,068 BTC.
Meanwhile, smaller “shrimp” wallets, holding less than 0.01 BTC, increased their share to a 20-month high of 0.249%. This accumulation reflects retail investors’ continued appetite to buy dips, even amid heavy selling pressure. Consequently, the market now shows a clear divide between smart money and retail enthusiasm.
Besides large holders selling, leveraged positions added fuel to the decline. Analyst Walter Bloombergan noted, “Bitcoin rebounded nearly 6% after briefly falling more than 50% from its October peak, touching near $60,000 before climbing back to around $65,700.”
Ether and Solana mirrored the selloff, experiencing sharp declines before partial recovery. Volatility surged, ETF outflows hit $434 million, and over $2 billion in crypto positions were liquidated. Hence, traders now focus on whether Bitcoin can maintain the $60,000 level, as a breach could push prices further into the mid-$50,000s.
Institutional Risks and Market Contagion
Additionally, crypto-hoarding firms, or DATs, face heightened risk. Bloombergan highlighted that companies fueling last year’s rally now risk triggering market contagion. With Bitcoin down nearly 50% from its October peak, DATs lacking revenue might sell assets to fund operations. This could spook investors, creating what Bloombergan calls “narrative contagion.”
Recent sales by firms like Ethzilla and FG Nexus underline the real risk. Falling DAT stock prices and ETF outflows could pressure Bitcoin toward $50K–$55K. Vulnerable firms include Enlivex, Twenty One Capital, and Evernorth.
Conversely, better-capitalized firms, such as The Smarter Web Company, remain solvent, having avoided risky debt structures. Hughes summarizes it as the “Hotel California trade”: easy to check in, but hard to exit without crashing the market.
Moreover, the combination of retail buying and institutional selling historically fuels bear cycles. Until retail shows signs of capitulation, smart money will likely continue selling confidently. Consequently, the market may experience further swings, with volatility remaining elevated.
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Stablecoin inflows to exchanges nearly doubled, showing investors are keeping cash ready to buy despite ongoing crypto sell-offs.
European banks, including BBVA and BNP Paribas, are building a euro stablecoin to speed up payments under clear regulations.
U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis wants banks to adopt stablecoins, but worries remain about deposits leaving traditional accounts.
Investor activity in stablecoins has jumped, signaling renewed confidence in crypto markets amid persistent selling. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, weekly stablecoin inflows to exchanges have doubled, rising from $51 billion in late December 2025 to $98 billion today.
This surge will cause the investments to surpass the 90-day average of $89 billion. This happens as Bitcoin tries to avoid a potential 50% correction from its all-time high in October. These individuals, therefore, seek investment avenues with safe havens, despite the volatility.
Darkfost noted, "This dynamic still needs to strengthen, but some participants are already buying this dip." The move highlights a cautious but clear return of capital deployment. However, selling pressure remains strong and is yet to be fully absorbed. Consequently, while inflows signal growing interest, the market requires sustained support for a more significant recovery.
European Banks Launch Euro-Pegged Stablecoin
In parallel, European financial institutions are embracing stablecoins as mainstream solutions. BBVA joined a consortium of eleven banks, forming Qivalis to develop a euro-pegged stablecoin. The initiative aims to enable faster, cheaper payments and digital asset settlements within a regulated framework.
Qivalis will operate on the MiCA regime and awaits the authorization of the Dutch central bank. In addition to BBVA, other members are BNP Paribas, CaixaBank, Ing Group, UniCredit, and others. It is set to be launched in the second half of 2026.
The consortium’s plan emphasizes security, governance, and customer protection. Additionally, this stablecoin could allow banks to offer simultaneous exchanges between digital assets and euros. Hence, traditional institutions are now positioning themselves to compete with decentralized finance offerings.
Political Push Supports Stablecoin Adoption
Meanwhile, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) urges banks to adopt stablecoins as a new financial product. She stated, "I'd like to see the banks embrace this rather than resist it." Lummis argues stablecoins offer fresh business opportunities and can integrate into mainstream banking.
However, negotiations over the market structure bill remain stalled. Banks warn that stablecoin rewards may trigger deposit flight from traditional accounts, particularly in smaller community banks.
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Marathon Digital Moves $86.9M in Bitcoin to Institutional Custodians
Marathon moved 1,318 BTC to trusted custodians, showing it actively manages risk instead of holding Bitcoin idle.
The miner’s Bitcoin balance fell sharply as prices dropped, suggesting strategic redeployment rather than panic selling.
Similar moves by miners and firms like BlackRock show institutions reposition assets during volatile crypto markets.
Marathon Digital executed a significant Bitcoin transfer on February 6, moving 1,318 BTC, worth about $86.9 million, to institutional custodians Two Prime, BitGo, and Galaxy Digital.
Blockchain analysis platform Lookonchain has uncovered this by tracking various transactions within different wallets. While Marathon has now sent 653.77 BTC to Two Prime, there have been other separate transactions of 99.99 BTC and 280 BTC to BitGo’s wallet.
In addition to this, 50 BTC has been sent to a different wallet, while 305 BTC has been sent via Anchorage Digital Custody. Deposits in smaller quantities, ranging from 3.16 to 3.27 BTC, have been made to different Marathon wallets by Coinbase.
As per the on-chain data provided by Arkham Intelligence, these transactions reflect a long-term capital investment strategy. The miner's on-chain balance experienced a steady rise in 2024 before reaching a peak at around $2.4 billion in early 2025.
However, as of February 6, 2026, the on-chain value dropped significantly to around $793 million. Presently, Marathon holds around 12,245 BTC valued at around $792.68 million, marking a dip of 9.76%, mirroring the decline in Bitcoin's price to $64,733, or 8.89%, as a result of the drop in value.
Patterns of Strategic Asset Movement
Marathon’s recent transfers mirror past large-scale movements. In November 2025, the firm moved 2,348 BTC, roughly $236 million, to institutional exchanges including Coinbase Prime, FalconX, Galaxy Digital, and Two Prime.
About $60 million went to FalconX, $45 million to Coinbase Prime, and the remainder to Two Prime and Galaxy Digital. Last month, Lookonchain also noted a transfer of 288 BTC, approximately $26.3 million, to Wintermute, a cryptocurrency market maker.
Such patterns are common among publicly listed Bitcoin miners. Riot Platforms moved 850 BTC in February 2025 to secure equipment financing. In December 2024, CleanSpark transferred 1,200 BTC to diversify its treasury.
Similarly, Core Scientific moved 600 BTC to fund partnerships. Institutional investors follow similar strategies. BlackRock, for instance, moved over $1 billion in BTC and Ethereum to Coinbase’s institutional custody in early November 2025.
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Bitwise filed with the SEC to launch the first ETF tied to Uniswap’s UNI token, bringing DeFi exposure to regular stock markets.
The UNI ETF would let investors gain DeFi exposure without buying or storing tokens themselves, making crypto investing simpler.
Despite short-term UNI price drops, an ETF could boost liquidity and attract institutions, helping DeFi gain wider trust and use.
Bitwise is advancing toward launching the first exchange-traded fund (ETF) focused on Uniswap. The firm filed an application with the SEC this Thursday, aiming to give investors direct exposure to UNI, the governance token of the Uniswap protocol.
The proposed ETF would allow traditional market investors to invest in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) tokens. In addition to giving investors access to UNI, the proposed ETF will cover the business expenses, hence a more organized form of investment in the token.
Uniswap is an exchange that allows for cryptocurrency trading between users, eliminating intermediaries such as banks via smart contracts that facilitate such trade. This, therefore, presents an opportunity for the ETF to act as a bridge between traditional finance and DeFi, which would be a huge milestone for crypto adoption. Coinbase Custody Trust Company would be the custodian for the UNI, holding it on behalf of the ETF. Staking would not be included, according to Bitwise.
Growth of Crypto ETFs and Regulatory Support
The Bitwise filing comes amidst rapid growth in crypto ETFs. Applications and launches for digital asset ETFs have catapulted since 2021 on improving regulatory clarity, as well as growing political support for crypto innovation in the United States. Former President Donald Trump repeatedly made remarks to make the United States the “crypto capital” of the world. Thus, companies like Bitwise are becoming more confident in releasing cryptocurrency investment vehicles.
The SEC and CFTC now work closely to update cryptocurrency regulations that are becoming increasingly outdated. For example, “Project Crypto,” proposed by SEC Chair Gary Gensler and CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam, aims to bring financial rules into step with innovation in blockchain.
Besides, ETFs offer the institutional investor a safer route into the asset, allowing market entry without managing tokens directly. Bitwise already has crypto ETFs linked to Bitcoin and other assets; the Uniswap ETF would expand options in the nascent DeFi sector.
Market Context and Investor Implications
The new launch comes at a time of marked market volatility. The UNI token declined by about 15% in the past 24 hours as Bitcoin’s value fell. In spite of this, exchange-traded funds could provide liquidity to the market and increase institutional involvement, making the cryptocurrency less volatile.
Moreover, DeFi services such as Uniswap continue to shape asset management, enabling persons to trade directly through blockchain technology. Therefore, the ETF may promote increased support and acceptance of decentralized finance.
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Michael Saylor’s Strategy Faces $12.4B Bitcoin Loss Amid Market Slump
Strategy’s big Bitcoin bet turned painful as BTC fell below key levels, wiping out paper gains built since last year’s rally.
With no new equity or debt raised, investors are questioning how long Strategy can keep buying Bitcoin in a tighter market.
Ethereum-heavy BitMine faces similar losses but is staying patient, betting the downturn is a long-term buying chance.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy reported a staggering $12.4 billion net loss in Q4, driven by Bitcoin’s recent price slump below $60,000. The firm’s Bitcoin holdings, once valued above its cumulative cost, now trade below $76,052 per coin, erasing gains achieved since last year’s U.S. election rally.
The loss highlights the risks of Strategy’s aggressive pivot from enterprise software to a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. Analysts now question the sustainability of its model amid cooling investor appetite and tightening capital access.
Strategy transformed itself over several years, using stock premiums to raise capital and buy more BTC. However, the company issued no new equity or debt alongside its earnings report, signaling limited funding options. “Investors are now focused on whether Strategy can still raise capital to fund additional Bitcoin purchases,” Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer told Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Saylor reassured stakeholders there are no margin calls and the firm holds $2.25 billion in cash, covering interest obligations for over two years.
Ethereum Losses Mirror Bitcoin Struggles
BitMine Immersion Technologies faces a similar challenge. The firm reported $8.2 billion in unrealized losses as Ethereum fell to $1,930, far below its $3,826 average purchase price. BitMine holds roughly 4.29 million ETH and has staked 2.9 million tokens, generating $188 million in annual yield.
The company also keeps $538 million in cash and no debt, positioning itself to capitalize on the downturn. Despite losses, BitMine views the market as a buying opportunity, mirroring Strategy’s long-term Bitcoin approach.
Saylor Launches Bitcoin Security Program
Amid market pressures, Saylor announced the Bitcoin Security Program to address quantum computing and other emerging threats. He described quantum computing as a decade-away concern but emphasized its importance in developing global, quantum-resistant Bitcoin upgrades. Saylor reiterated that Strategy will continue buying Bitcoin each quarter and not sell, citing support from crypto-friendly leadership in the current administration.
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Binance SAFU Bitcoin Conversion Plan Advances as ETF Transfers Continue
Binance has converted 20% of its SAFU target into Bitcoin within 48 hours through internal reserve transfers.
The exchange maintains a $1B safety threshold with rebalancing rules to manage Bitcoin price volatility.
Parallel ETF inflows show disciplined institutional accumulation through regulated custody channels.
Binance SAFU Bitcoin Accumulation has entered an execution phase as the exchange reallocates user protection reserves into Bitcoin. Recent on-chain movements show structured transfers aligned with a 30-day conversion strategy.
Binance Advances SAFU Reserve Strategy
Binance transferred 1,315 BTC, valued near $100.4 million, into its SAFU custody wallet. The movement originated from a Binance hot wallet and was publicly traceable on-chain.
Market observers described the transaction as deliberate reserve reclassification rather than routine wallet management. Within 48 hours, total additions reached 2,630 BTC, equaling roughly $201 million at prevailing prices.
The exchange confirmed that these steps form part of a broader plan to convert $1 billion of SAFU reserves into Bitcoin. The initiative was announced on January 30, 2026.
They were shifted internally from existing reserves into a segregated SAFU address. Binance stated that SAFU functions as an insurance mechanism for extreme events affecting users.
Reallocating part of this fund into Bitcoin reflects its view of BTC as a long-term reserve asset. The company also cited Bitcoin’s liquidity profile as a factor in the transition.
The exchange added a safeguard to the strategy. If SAFU’s valuation drops below $800 million, Binance will inject additional funds.
This measure keeps the fund aligned with the $1 billion benchmark throughout the conversion window.
Market conditions remain volatile, with Bitcoin trading near $76,000 after rebounding from recent lows. Binance aims to complete the reserve transition within 30 days of the original announcement.
ETF inflows reflect regulated capital entering Bitcoin through custodial channels. Each transfer represents actual settlement rather than derivative exposure.
This process links traditional finance infrastructure with blockchain settlement layers. Together, these developments point to steady absorption of supply.
Neither approach relies on promotional cycles or retail sentiment. The transactions follow preset rules and repeatable execution models.
Bitcoin’s role as a reserve and custody asset becomes more visible under this framework. Exchanges and asset managers treat BTC as a balance sheet component.
This shifts its perception toward infrastructure rather than speculation.
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The latest trading session recorded a total net outflow of approximately $237.55 million from US spot crypto exchange-traded funds. Most of the decline originated from Bitcoin-linked products, while other assets experienced limited but directional inflows.
Market data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs shed 3,601 BTC in a single day, valued near $272.02 million. This volume exceeded several days of newly mined supply, shifting ETFs from supply absorbers into short-term distributors.
Bitcoin ETFs Drive the Entire Net Outflow
Bitcoin remained the dominant source of selling pressure throughout the session. The size of the outflow eclipsed movements in every other spot crypto ETF combined.
This behavior reflects inventory management by large holders after an extended price run. Funds appear to be locking in gains while reducing exposure ahead of macroeconomic and policy-related events.
Market observers pointed out in tweets that such selling tends to occur in structured blocks. The pattern resembles historical distribution phases rather than panic-driven liquidation.
Ethereum and Altcoins Receive Selective Inflows
While Bitcoin ETFs recorded losses, Ethereum spot ETFs posted inflows of 6,238 ETH, equal to about $14.06 million. The direction of the flow suggested relative value positioning within digital asset portfolios.
Ethereum’s inflows coincided with growing recognition of its staking yield and infrastructure role. Institutions increasingly treat ETH as a standalone allocation instead of a derivative of Bitcoin price action.
Solana and XRP also attracted new capital, though in smaller dollar amounts. Tweets during the session described this as tactical exposure aimed at higher beta assets with short-term momentum potential.
Diverging Signals Across Smaller Assets
Litecoin spot ETFs recorded outflows of 4,890 LTC, valued at nearly $293,930. Though modest in scale, the move reflected declining institutional interest in assets lacking evolving narratives.
Several ETFs, including those tied to LINK, AVAX, DOGE, and HBAR, posted zero flows. This inactivity suggested that funds were neither accumulating nor distributing those assets during the session.
ETF flow behavior now reflects sector-style allocation rather than uniform exposure to the crypto market. Bitcoin absorbed the majority of selling pressure, while Ethereum and select altcoins drew fresh interest.
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Bitcoin Price Drop Tests Strategy’s Conviction, Not Its Balance Sheet Strength
Strategy Bitcoin balance sheet remains solvent despite BTC trading below the average acquisition price.
Long-dated, mostly unsecured debt limits liquidation risk during Bitcoin drawdowns.
Liquidity reserves provide multi-year coverage without requiring Bitcoin sales.
The Bitcoin balance sheet is under renewed scrutiny as Bitcoin trades below its average acquisition price. Market concern centers on unrealized losses, though balance sheet structure and debt timelines frame the current move as psychological rather than structural.
Bitcoin Price Below Cost Tests Sentiment, Not Structure
The strategy Bitcoin balance sheet drew attention after Bitcoin slipped below the firm’s average purchase price. The move implies sizable unrealized losses. Market reaction followed quickly, driven by optics rather than funding pressure.
Historical precedent shapes the response. In the prior cycle, Bitcoin fell far below Strategy’s average cost. During that period, the company neither sold Bitcoin nor faced forced actions.
The reason remains consistent. Strategy does not pledge Bitcoin as collateral. Without collateralized exposure, price declines do not trigger margin calls or automatic selling mechanisms.
Several market observers noted this distinction on social media. Tweets emphasized the difference between trading losses and long-term capital allocation. The commentary focused on structure rather than price movement.
Debt Composition Weakens the Forced-Sale Narrative
The strategy Bitcoin balance sheet shows total debt near $8.24 billion. Bitcoin holdings remain materially higher even after recent price weakness. Asset coverage exceeds debt by a wide margin.
Most of this debt is unsecured. Lenders lack contractual rights to seize Bitcoin based on price declines. No covenants are tied directly to Bitcoin valuation levels.
Liquidity further supports the balance sheet. The company holds over $2 billion in U.S. dollar reserves. This buffer reduces reliance on asset sales during volatile periods.
Maturity Timeline Extends Strategic Flexibility
Strategy Bitcoin balance sheet benefits from long-dated maturities. Convertible notes largely mature between 2028 and 2032. The weighted average maturity exceeds four years.
Near-term obligations remain limited. Dividend and interest coverage extends multiple years using cash and operational resources. Bitcoin does not need to be sold to meet current commitments.
Time remains a central variable. Prolonged Bitcoin weakness over many years would alter decisions. Current conditions fall well within the design parameters of the capital structure.
Market commentary acknowledged this timeline. Tweets pointed out that panic pricing often ignores maturity schedules. Focus returned to survivability rather than short-term valuation swings.
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Solana Price Outlook Shows Consolidation as On-Chain Adoption Surges
Solana’s price structure shows controlled retracement toward key support levels rather than signs of trend failure or panic selling.
MVRV remaining near neutral reflects valuation compression and long-term holder absorption, not speculative excess or market euphoria.
Tokenized stocks on Solana reaching new highs signal steady institutional adoption independent of short-term SOL price movement.
Solana SOL price outlook shows price near $97.11 amid consolidation. Nevertheless, tokenized stocks on Solana have surpassed $1 billion in assets under management. This shows that adoption and structural growth have occurred despite recent price softening.
Technical Structure Signals Controlled Pullback
Solana SOL price outlook on the three-day chart reflects gravity after an extended rally, not a structural breakdown. Price remains aligned with a rising macro trendline from the early base.
Recent rejection near the $120 area marked a failed decision zone rather than a reversal. Market structure shows that once the price fell out of the $120–$105 range, downside exploration became likely.
Historical behavior suggests liquidity is often tested beyond initial support during such phases. This aligns with gradual selling rather than abrupt liquidation.
$74.11 as the first meaningful reaction zone that previously acted as a consolidation and support.
A slow bleed toward that area would likely test buyer conviction rather than invalidate the broader trend. If $74.11 fails, the chart structure opens toward $50.18 with limited visible support.
That level sits near the midpoint of the broader advance. Markets often retrace symmetrically during cooling phases, especially after extended positioning.
$50.18 also coincides with earlier accumulation zones where demand absorbed supply. Such areas often attract longer-term participants during drawdowns. Price reaching that level would reflect reset conditions, not trend abandonment.
MVRV and Realized Price Reflect Valuation Reset
Solana SOL price outlook is further informed by the MVRV ratio, which tracks market value against realized value. Historically, extremes above 2.4 aligned with speculative peaks. Current readings remain near the neutral band.
The absence of MVRV expansion suggests sentiment is restrained. Even as price remains elevated compared to prior cycles, valuation metrics have cooled. This divergence points to controlled deleveraging rather than emotional selling.
Realized price offers additional context. Recent price action shows SOL drifting closer to the realized price instead of extending upward. In past cycles, this behavior marked absorption phases within broader bull structures.
Solana SOL price outlook is also shaped by on-chain adoption beyond trading activity. Tokenized stocks on Solana surpassed $230 million in value, reaching a new all-time high.
The growth followed a steady stair-step pattern. This expansion occurred from June through January without parabolic spikes.
Such behavior reflects sustained inflows rather than speculative bursts. Market participants often associate this shape with infrastructure-led adoption.
Tokenized equities require low fees, fast settlement, and consistent performance. Solana’s architecture supports these needs at scale.
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Bitcoin Struggles Below AVWAP and SMA50 as Post-Halving Trend Turns Bearish
Bitcoin trades below key AVWAP and SMA50 levels, confirming seller dominance after rejection near the 97K–100K resistance zone.
The first lower high formed as multiple averages clustered near 100K, signaling a structural shift from expansion to distribution.
Short-term charts show corrective rebounds capped by Fibonacci resistance, with downside risk toward the 70.7K–72.6K demand zone.
Bitcoin price action since the last halving shows renewed weakness near $75,900–$76,400, key support levels. Sellers have continued to cap rallies around mid-range levels, keeping price action subdued in the short term.
Post-Halving Structure Shifts From Expansion to Distribution
Market observers noted on X that Bitcoin spent its early post-halving phase trading within the AVWAP bands anchored to the Fourth Halving. Price compression occurred while the weekly SMA50 maintained a positive slope, signaling controlled accumulation and steady buyer participation.
As volatility expanded, Bitcoin respected the upper AVWAP band as a guide for momentum moves. Each rally pushed the price farther from the original halving average, creating distance between value and traded levels.
Analysts referenced several moments where the upper band served as a practical zone for identifying short-term market tops. Support emerged near the original Fourth Halving AVWAP and the rising SMA50.
Buyers defended that region during pullbacks, allowing the trend to extend toward the all-time high. However, subsequent candles showed longer wicks and sharper rejections, indicating a transition toward distribution behavior.
Lower High Formation Signals Weakening Market Control
After the peak, Bitcoin closed below the weekly SMA50 and revisited the Fourth Halving AVWAP as support. A modest recovery followed, but the price stalled between 97,000 and 100,000.
This zone formed a clear resistance ceiling and produced the first lower high of the cycle. Technical clusters reinforced that ceiling. The UTXO Age Bands for 6–12 months, the SMA50, and the AVWAP anchored to the latest all-time high converged in the same range.
According to commentary shared on X, this confluence increased selling pressure and limited upside continuation.
Current price behavior shows Bitcoin trading below the Fourth Halving AVWAP, the downward-sloping SMA50, and the AVWAP anchored to the latest high. These failures point to seller dominance. Rallies are now viewed as corrective reactions rather than impulsive trend extensions.
Short-Term Chart Shows Corrective Bounce Under Resistance
Below current trading levels, a demand zone between 70,700 and 72,600 aligns with extension targets near 138% and 161.8%. Chart annotations shared by traders on X suggest one more downside leg may complete the corrective structure.
A sustained move above 80,000 would be required to challenge this scenario. Bitcoin price action since the last halving now reflects a market adjusting after its expansion phase.
The loss of key averages and anchored VWAP support has shifted focus toward corrective patterns and resistance-based trading. Short-term direction remains defined by whether price can reclaim these levels or revisit lower demand zones.
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MACD and RSI indicate early signs of momentum shift, hinting at potential mid-term rebound.
Shiba Inu price prediction focuses on the $0.0000066721 support, marking a key structural level. Weekly losses have tested long-term demand zones, while technical indicators suggest early buyer re-engagement could influence SHIB’s next move.
$0.0000066721: Critical Support Zone
Shiba Inu is currently testing $0.000006672, a level that has historically acted as a demand shelf. Repeated rallies above this price have triggered bullish phases in past cycles.
Weekly charts show SHIB in a macro downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. Persistent rejections at $0.0000148 and $0.000033 reinforce the strength of overhead resistance.
Holders are closely watching this zone, as price behavior here could define the short-to-mid-term trend. Maintaining support would allow consolidation and possible recovery.
Recent activity indicates $2.45 billion in liquidation, with $2.27 billion coming from long positions. This shows high leverage pressure on bullish participants.
Open interest has decreased by roughly 15% to $75 million. Reduced engagement suggests broad de-risking rather than aggressive re-entry.
The market’s reaction to this structural support will determine whether SHIB stabilizes or continues into lower support zones near $0.00000299.
Technical Indicators and Potential Recovery
RSI has rebounded from the 30 oversold threshold, signaling potential exhaustion of selling pressure. Early buyer interest is gradually returning.
MACD is trending upward toward a possible golden cross. A confirmed crossover could suggest mid-term bullish momentum may develop.
The falling wedge pattern remains intact, approaching its apex. A successful breakout could see SHIB reach $0.00001 initially, with higher targets at $0.000033 or even $0.000042 during strong altcoin conditions.
Historical Context and Cycle Analysis
Shiba Inu has shown progressively weaker performance in successive bull cycles. This trend questions whether past upside can repeat in the current cycle.
Long-term demand zones around $0.0000066 have previously served as pivotal points. Current retests are closely monitored by investors for potential reversal or breakdown.
Team members attribute price behavior to over-leverage and forced selling patterns. Market structure has not yet broken decisively, leaving room for consolidation or a potential rebound.
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a16z Crypto Explains Why AI Needs Blockchains Right Now
AI slashes impersonation costs, and blockchains restore identity scarcity through proof of personhood without daily user friction.
Decentralized identities give users and AI agents portable passports across platforms without revocation or platform lock-in.
Blockchains enable machine-scale micropayments and privacy via smart contracts and zero-knowledge proofs.
AI-generated content now moves faster than the internet’s trust systems can manage. According to a16z crypto, the mismatch became clear as AI agents began acting like humans online. The firm outlined its view in a recent post, explaining why blockchains now matter for identity, payments, and privacy, as AI activity scales across platforms.
Rising AI Impersonation Pressures Online Systems
According to a16z crypto, AI has sharply reduced the cost of impersonation across the internet. Notably, one actor can now simulate thousands of voices, faces, and accounts. However, most platforms still assume one account equals one person, which breaks under AI scale. As a result, detection tools like CAPTCHAs struggle to keep pace.
Blockchains address this gap through decentralized proof-of-personhood systems. These systems allow one verified identity while limiting duplicates. For example, scanning once may remain simple, yet repeating it becomes impractical. Therefore, blockchains restore scarcity at the identity layer without adding daily user friction. This shift raises attack costs while preserving standard online behavior.
Decentralized Identity and Portable Agent Passports
Beyond impersonation, a16z crypto highlighted identity control as a growing issue. Centralized digital IDs allow issuers to revoke access or monitor users. However, decentralization shifts control directly to users. Blockchain-based identities allow people to custody credentials and verify humanity privately.
This structure also supports AI agents operating across services. Notably, agents now move between chats, emails, calls, and APIs. Yet, no universal system links these interactions. Blockchain identities act as portable passports. They reference permissions, capabilities, and payment endpoints. As a result, agents remain consistent across platforms without platform lock-in.
Machine-Scale Payments and Privacy Enforcement
As agents transact more often, existing payment rails face limits. According to a16z crypto, blockchains support micropayments at near-zero cost. These systems allow frequent, automated payments between agents. Moreover, smart contracts enable transparent payment splits across multiple contributors.
Privacy also remains central. Many security systems collect extensive data, which AI can later exploit. Blockchains paired with zero-knowledge proofs change this model. Users can prove facts without exposing underlying data. Consequently, applications gain verification while limiting exploitable information.
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Ripple Prime Adds Hyperliquid for Onchain Derivatives
Ripple Prime now offers institutional access to Hyperliquid perpetuals with cross-margining across FX, fixed income, and swaps.
The integration brings DeFi derivatives into a single prime brokerage interface with centralized risk and margin management.
Hyperliquid’s growth, with over $5B open interest, strengthens Ripple Prime’s push into institutional onchain markets.
Ripple announced that it added Hyperliquid to its Ripple Prime brokerage platform, its first decentralized finance integration. The announcement outlined institutional access to onchain perpetuals through a single prime brokerage interface. Ripple said the move allows clients to trade DeFi derivatives while managing margin and risk within Ripple Prime.
How Ripple Prime Integrates Hyperliquid
Ripple stated that Ripple Prime clients can now access Hyperliquid’s decentralized perpetuals liquidity directly through the platform. Notably, clients can cross-margin DeFi derivatives exposures with other supported asset classes. These assets include FX, fixed income, and over-the-counter swaps.
According to Ripple, the platform continues to function as a unified access point for institutions managing multi-asset portfolios. However, the Hyperliquid integration focuses on derivatives rather than retail spot trading. Ripple emphasized centralized risk management and consolidated margin across supported markets.
Earlier this year, Flare launched an XRP spot market on Hyperliquid through FXRP. However, Ripple’s announcement centers on institutional derivatives access. The company said the integration keeps all margin and risk controls inside Ripple Prime.
Hyperliquid’s Growth and Market Position
Hyperliquid has expanded rapidly within decentralized derivatives markets. As of mid-January, the platform recorded over $5 billion in open interest. Monthly trading volume exceeded $200 billion, surpassing several competing exchanges.
The platform has also seen growth in tokenized commodity products. These include silver futures, which gained attention during recent market volatility. Hyperliquid is also exploring prediction markets, according to prior disclosures.
Ripple noted that Hyperliquid now supports customized perpetuals for stocks and commodities following its HIP-3 upgrade. This feature allows institutions broader exposure through onchain derivatives.
Ripple Prime’s Expansion Strategy
Ripple launched Ripple Prime in late 2025 after acquiring Hidden Road for $1.25 billion. The firm rebranded the prime brokerage following the acquisition. Ripple said XRP and the RLUSD stablecoin remain central to its offerings.
Ripple also recently secured an EU-wide electronic money institution license in Luxembourg. This license allows Ripple to provide regulated digital payment services across the European Union.
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Tether Reports that Q4 2025 USDT Market Cap Hit $187.3B
USD₮ market cap rose to $187.3B in Q4, growing 3.5% after October’s selloff while rival stablecoins shrank.
Total USD₮ users reached 534.5M, with 139.1M wallets holding 70.7% of all stablecoin balances on-chain.
Reserves hit $192.9B, backed by Treasuries, 96,184 BTC, gold, and $4.4T in quarterly on-chain transfers.
Tether released its USD₮ Q4 2025 market report, detailing record growth despite a sharp crypto liquidation on October 10, 2025. The report covered global blockchain activity through December 31, 2025, and focused on USD₮ issuance, reserves, and usage. Tether attributed the results to continued demand for USD₮ as both a store of value and a transaction asset.
Market Growth Holds After October Liquidation
According to Tether’s on-chain analysis, USD₮ market cap reached $187.3 billion in Q4 2025, rising $12.4 billion quarter over quarter. Growth slowed after October’s liquidation cascade, when the total crypto market fell by more than one-third.
However, USD₮ still expanded 3.5% during that period. In contrast, the second- and third-largest stablecoins declined by 2.6% and 57%. Total USD₮ users rose by 35.2 million in the quarter, reaching an estimated 534.5 million.
This marked the eighth straight quarter with more than 30 million new users. On-chain holders increased by 14.7 million to 139.1 million wallets, representing 70.7% of all stablecoin wallets. Data cited in the report came from Tether analysis, Chainalysis, and Artemis.
Reserves Expand Across Treasuries, Bitcoin, and Gold
Tether reported total reserves of $192.9 billion at the end of Q4, exceeding liabilities by $6.3 billion. Reserves included 96,184 bitcoin and 127.5 metric tons of gold, both increasing during the quarter. U.S. Treasury exposure rose by $6.5 billion to $141.6 billion.
Tether said this level would rank it as the 18th-largest U.S. Treasury holder if treated as a country. During 2025, Tether added $28.2 billion in Treasuries, making it the seventh-largest buyer compared with sovereign nations.
On-Chain Activity Reaches New Records
On-chain USD₮ transfers reached $4.4 trillion in Q4, the highest quarterly total recorded. Single-asset transfers accounted for 63.6% of that value. The number of transfers climbed to 2.2 billion, with most transactions under $1,000. Monthly active on-chain users averaged 24.8 million.
Tether reported that 36% of USD₮ supply sat on centralized exchanges, while savers held 33%. Sender wallets accounted for 26.5%. Velocity averaged 28% during the quarter, remaining lower than other major stablecoins.
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Payy Network Brings Default ERC-20 Privacy to Ethereum
Payy introduces an EVM-compatible L2 where ERC-20 transfers are private by default using existing wallets like MetaMask.
A chain-native privacy pool and offchain Privacy Vaults let apps balance privacy, compliance, and transaction visibility.
Targeting crypto users and fintechs, Payy plans to bootstrap with 100k users and stablecoin partners at launch.
Ethereum’s privacy narrative took a concrete step forward with the launch of Payy Network on Ethereum. Payy announced the rollout of a privacy-enabled EVM layer-2 supporting private ERC-20 transfers by default. The announcement came on Ethereum, involved Payy Network developers, and introduced chain-level privacy without smart contract changes or new wallets.
Payy Network Architecture and Privacy Design
According to Payy, the network operates as a privacy-enabled EVM-compatible layer-2. ERC-20 transfers remain private by default, while existing EVM wallets continue working without modification. Users add Payy Network to MetaMask, then send tokens without exposing transaction details.
Notably, Payy relies on a chain-native privacy pool that holds all ERC-20 assets. Direct transfers occur inside this pool, preserving privacy. However, smart contract interactions trigger withdrawals to fresh addresses. Transaction data then routes to offchain Privacy Vaults.
Payy said Privacy Vaults store transaction data offchain for compliance and analysis. Developers configure these vaults through RPC URL parameters. This structure allows applications to choose privacy levels, ranging from fully private to fully public, based on compliance needs.
Target Users and Network Bootstrapping
Payy identified two primary user groups for the network. Crypto-native users and funds can transfer and trade privately using existing wallets. This approach avoids multiple wallets, centralized exchange loops, or external privacy tools.
Meanwhile, fintech firms and traditional finance entities can move flows onchain while limiting transaction analysis exposure. Payy said these users will onboard through distribution partners.
Additionally, Payy Wallet plans to bootstrap the network with 100,000 users and initial liquidity on launch. Payy also stated that several large stablecoin issuers are day-one launch partners. However, the project has not yet disclosed their names.
Layer-2 Context From Vitalik Buterin
Days before the Payy announcement, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin addressed layer-2 progress on X. According to Buterin, Ethereum’s roadmap now faces tension between slow layer-2 interoperability and fast mainnet scaling.
He noted that Ethereum’s mainnet continues scaling directly, with lower fees and higher gas limits expected by 2026. At the same time, many layer-2 networks remain short of full interoperability. These developments have reopened discussion around the role and expectations of Ethereum layer-2 networks.
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Tells Congress Bitcoin Cannot Be Bailed Out
Bessent said Treasury has no authority to buy or bail out Bitcoin and taxpayer funds cannot be used for crypto support.
All U.S. Bitcoin exposure comes from seized assets, with about $500M retained that later grew to over $15B.
Lawmakers remain divided, as some propose using gold reserves while critics reject Bitcoin as a strategic asset.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told U.S. lawmakers that Bitcoin will not receive government support or taxpayer funding. He spoke Wednesday during a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington. The exchange followed questions from Representative Brad Sherman about possible federal intervention, existing Bitcoin holdings, and the limits of Treasury authority under current law.
Treasury Pushes Back on Bitcoin Bailout Questions
During testimony tied to the Financial Stability Oversight Council’s annual report, Sherman questioned whether Treasury could support Bitcoin during market stress. He asked if Bessent could direct banks to buy Bitcoin or adjust reserve rules to favor crypto holdings.
However, Bessent rejected the idea directly. He stated that neither Treasury law nor his role as FSOC chair allows such actions. He added that taxpayer funds cannot be used to purchase Bitcoin or other crypto assets.
Sherman then asked whether private bank funds could be treated as taxpayer money if regulators intervened. Bessent pushed back, asking why private capital would be classified as public funds. The exchange grew tense before shifting toward existing government-held Bitcoin.
Seized Bitcoin Forms Entire U.S. Exposure
Sherman later asked whether Treasury could deploy collected taxes into crypto markets. Bessent responded that the government only retains Bitcoin seized through criminal forfeitures. He emphasized that seized Bitcoin remains an asset of the United States.
To illustrate scale, Bessent cited roughly $1 billion in seized Bitcoin. He said about $500 million was retained. Notably, he added that retained Bitcoin later appreciated to more than $15 billion in value.
Bessent clarified that these holdings resulted from law enforcement actions, not investment decisions. He stressed that Treasury has no authority to buy Bitcoin directly under current law.
Lawmakers Debate Future Bitcoin Policy Paths
While Bessent rejected purchases, some lawmakers continue exploring alternatives. Senator Cynthia Lummis has suggested using U.S. gold reserves to acquire Bitcoin. She previously said she discussed that idea with Bessent.
Meanwhile, critics responded publicly. Economist Peter Schiff commented on X following President Donald Trump’s crypto statements. Schiff argued Bitcoin should not replace traditional reserves and said China focuses instead on gold and manufacturing.
Earlier this year, Bessent said the U.S. would stop selling seized Bitcoin. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he said forfeited BTC would move into a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
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BNB Chain Deploys ERC-8004 for Onchain AI Agent Identity
ERC-8004 adds onchain identity and reputation registries, letting autonomous AI agents prove who they are and build trust over time.
Verifiable identities prevent imposters, while immutable reputation records track agent performance across apps without centralized oversight.
Live on BSC Mainnet and Testnet, the standard uses low fees and fast settlement to support frequent agent interactions.
BNB Chain announced the deployment of ERC-8004 infrastructure on BSC Mainnet and Testnet, according to a network statement. The rollout introduces verifiable identity and onchain reputation for autonomous AI agents operating on the blockchain. BNB Chain said the update addresses accountability gaps as software agents begin acting independently across decentralized systems.
What ERC-8004 Introduces to BNB Chain
According to BNB Chain, ERC-8004 functions as a trust layer for autonomous agents. The standard adds two onchain components designed to support independent software activity. These components include an Identity Registry and a Reputation Registry.
The Identity Registry assigns each agent a unique, verifiable onchain identity. This structure allows users and smart contracts to distinguish legitimate agents from imposters. As a result, interactions can occur without relying on centralized platforms for verification.
Meanwhile, the Reputation Registry records agent performance over time. Each successful task and interaction creates an immutable onchain record. This process allows agents to build a portable reputation that persists across applications and ecosystems.
Why Autonomous Agents Need Verifiable Identity
BNB Chain said most AI tools today lack persistent identity between sessions. As a result, past actions remain difficult to verify across systems. Without identity, agents cannot build reputation, and without reputation, trust remains limited.
ERC-8004 addresses this issue by enabling agents to carry identity and history across environments. Agents can prove who they are, verify past behavior, and interact without central oversight. This framework supports collaboration and transactions between agents operating independently.
The standard also enables other agents and services to assess trust using recorded performance. According to BNB Chain, this capability supports accountability in open, decentralized systems.
Infrastructure and Network Support on BNB Chain
BNB Chain said low transaction fees and fast settlement support frequent agent interactions. These conditions allow identity and reputation updates without excessive cost. The network stated that high fees or slow processing would limit practical usage.
ERC-8004 is now live on both BSC Mainnet and Testnet. BNB Chain said the deployment focuses on usability rather than experimentation. The network described identity as a foundational layer for autonomous software operating beyond single applications.
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