Cryptopolitan

Macro uncertainty has been on the rise ever since last year, as reflected in the global uncertainty index, and this has weighed heavily on the crypto markets. Adding to this pressure, yesterday, news surrounded Iran conducting live-fire missile drills near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes, re-escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The drills were conducted by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard at a time when the United States and Iran began a new round of high-stakes nuclear negotiations in Geneva. 

The timing was certainly not coincidental. These drills come alongside U.S. military deployments in the region and ongoing disagreements over Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief and regional influence. Negotiations have been firm from both sides with Iran warning it is ready to retaliate against any aggression while the U.S. has hinted that military options remain on the table if diplomacy fails. 

Even though the missile launches weren’t part of any active conflict, any activity in the Strait of Hormuz gets alarm bells ringing worldwide. With around 20% of global shipments passing through this key passage, any tensions within this region becomes a reminder of how delicate this region is and how easily there can be ripple effects across oil prices, inflation, and financial markets worldwide, including crypto.   

Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters to Global Markets 

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow shipping lane in the Middle East and one of the most important energy chokepoints in the world. This region roughly sees around 20 million barrels of oil pass by per day, thereby accounting for nearly 20% of world’s petroleum supply. Therefore, any conflicts or disruptions in this route automatically raises concerns about energy supply around the globe and questions are raised about broader economic stability. 

The fact is, even a threat of disruption is enough to push buyers to look for alternative supply from other oil-producing regions and tap into existing stockpiles. Both responses typically come with higher costs, which pushes oil prices up and increases volatility. Previous instances of uncertainty in this region have shown how quickly oil markets react. For example, escalation here last year in June between the U.S. and Iran resulted in oil prices rising a staggering 21% from around $63 to $77 in a matter of days. 

Ultimately, oil is a core input for the global economy and any disruption to the trade can have a knock on effect into financial markets and assets worldwide. 

Oil and Inflation Expectations Being Repriced 

When oil prices rise, they tend to have a domino effect across transportation, manufacturing and food costs, gradually filtering through supply chains and into consumer prices. This transmission does not happen overnight; there is typically a lag before higher energy costs show up in inflation data such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). As businesses absorb rising input costs, they eventually pass them on to consumers, which is why energy-driven inflation often unfolds over months rather than days. 

As inflation expectations increase, financial markets begin reassessing this risk almost instantly. In response, bond yields often rise as investors anticipate tighter monetary policy, equities can face pressure from higher costs and slower growth projections and assets like crypto can turn volatile as the general economic outlook and liquidity is reassessed. 

Central Bank Policy Implications 

The chances of rising inflation puts central banks in a peculiar and uncomfortable position. If inflation tends to trend higher, policymakers may be forced to delay interest rate cuts or keep borrowing costs higher for longer. In financial markets, this shift from dovish to a hawkish stance is closely watched by investors because it directly shapes the overall direction of global liquidity. 

Another corollary is that higher interest rates often strengthens the U.S. dollar as investors go in search for higher yielding and safer assets. A rising dollar and tighter liquidity are a combination that does not bode well for global markets, especially crypto. 

Crypto’s Increasing Macro Correlation 

Over the past few years, Bitcoin has become noticeably more sensitive to macro shocks, particularly during periods of tightening financial conditions or market stress. Research shows its correlation with major equity indices has risen significantly alongside institutional adoption and broader participation from traditional investors. In fact, correlations with major growth stocks have increased markedly following key milestones such as Bitcoin ETF launches and corporate treasury adoption, highlighting how the asset is becoming more integrated into global financial markets. At the same time, Bitcoin still retains unique drivers, such as its fixed supply and halving cycle, meaning it does not move in lockstep with traditional assets at all times. 

A key reason for this growing sensitivity is the liquidity-driven nature of crypto markets. Bitcoin increasingly responds to global capital flows and monetary policy cycles, especially as ETFs and institutional portfolios make access easier and more familiar for traditional investors. This deeper integration means crypto now sits closer to the broader financial system: it can behave like a macro-sensitive asset in the short term while still maintaining distinct long-term characteristics tied to adoption, technology, and network growth.

What Traders are Watching Next 

For now, this is still a developing macro story which deserves close attention for coming days to weeks. Any change in escalation to de-escalation during times like these can quickly have an effect on market sentiment. Recent reports indicate that Iran has offered partial nuclear concessions in ongoing talks, including a proposal to pause uranium enrichment for a limited period and send part of its highly enriched stockpile abroad in return for sanctions relief. The primary demand from the U.S. to completely halt enrichment however remains on the table and this is the point of contention that still needs to be played out. 

Apart from geopolitics, traders will need to keep a close eye on the U.S. dollar and bond yields as this will provide some clarity on how markets are seeing risk. The DXY had a sharp wick yesterday following yesterday’s news but ultimately more news filtering will be needed to confirm a more definitive trend.  

Bitcoin’s price behavior is signaling deeper financial stress that traditional markets have yet to price in, according to Arthur Hayes, co‑founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX.

Hayes said this week that the leading cryptocurrency’s continued decline, which has diverged sharply from the relatively flat performance of the Nasdaq 100 Index, could be “flashing” early warnings of tightening credit conditions in the U.S. dollar economy, potentially foreshadowing a broader credit crunch. In a post on his Substack newsletter, he described Bitcoin as acting like a “fiat liquidity fire alarm,” reacting before equities and other traditional indicators.

Bitcoin is showing that credit in the financial system is falling

Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin is an early warning sign of economic problems ahead because it’s highly sensitive to changes in the financial system and reacts faster than most traditional assets. Hayes explained that BTC stocks and other investments take longer to reflect the impact of falling liquidity than BTC does.

He also said that a falling Bitcoin price while the Nasdaq 100 Index stays stable is usually a sign of problems in the financial system that stock prices haven’t yet reflected, and that will soon affect broader markets.

Hays mentioned the growing impact of AI on white-collar jobs and said many people could lose their income and struggle to pay off debts, including credit card bills, car loans, and mortgages. He estimates that banks could lose up to $330 billion in consumer credit and $227 billion in mortgage debt if 20% of the country’s 72.1 million knowledge workers were affected.

Banks will likely give out fewer loans or make borrowing harder for everyone when they notice more people falling behind on their payments. This will, in turn, slow down the flow of money into the economy because people who can’t borrow as easily will spend less, forcing businesses to make less.

According to Hayes, weaker banks will feel the impact of this chain reaction the most, and some could even become insolvent because they lack the funds to cover obligations. In the end, everyone, including consumers and businesses that rely on credit to operate, will be affected.

AI job losses could make banks lose money and force the Federal Reserve to step in

Arthur Hayes says AI tools can now handle tasks that required large human teams, so industries like software-as-a-service companies have been underperforming compared to tech stocks in recent months.

He also explained that these job losses have led to an increase in credit card delinquencies and have placed immense pressure on consumer discretionary companies, as households are now struggling to keep up with debt payments.

Hayes warns that the Federal Reserve may have to step in with large-scale support to prevent the situation from becoming a full-blown crisis.

Other analysts also agree that significant banking problems would definitely lead to government intervention. They believe this could, in turn, make Bitcoin and other scarce digital assets more attractive by undermining trust in traditional money systems. 

When a system relies on more money printing to survive, people begin to see scarce assets as a safer place to store value. Hayes presents two potential market routes in the face of this situation, as explained in the article.

The first is that the fall of Bitcoin from $126,000 to $60,000 may already be pricing in the slowdown, with stocks having time to catch up. Alternatively, the fall in Bitcoin may continue, with stocks later catching up as they too price in the same credit risks. 

In either case, the outcome is likely to be the same: lots of money will be pumped into the system to prevent widespread bank problems.

Hayes believes this reaction could offset Bitcoin’s losses and even propel it to new all-time highs once the system stabilizes again. This is an example of how job losses, credit issues, and bank stress can all impact one another, with early signs of what is to come in Bitcoin.

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Mubadala Investment Company, the sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi, has revealed that it now holds over 12 million shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).

The holding was valued at approximately $630.6 million as of the end of 2025. The fund grew its holdings by 46% in a period of three months, going from 8.7 million shares at the end of September to 12.7 million shares by the end of December.

How much Bitcoin exposure does Abu Dhabi have?

Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, Mubadala Investment Company, now owns over $630 million worth of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), according to a new 13F filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on February 17, 2026.

The filing shows that as of December 31, 2025, Mubadala held exactly 12,702,323 shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust and 8,726,972 shares as of September 30, 2025. The fund grew its Bitcoin position by 46% in just three months.

Major global financial players now regard Bitcoin as a standard part of a large investment portfolio despite its volatility at the start of 2026. Bitcoin prices slid from an all-time high above $100,000 down to the $68,000 range this February.

Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have remained cautious about digital assets for years. However, the launch and success of spot ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT have encouraged state-backed funds like Mubadala to invest.

The same filing that revealed the Bitcoin stake also showed huge holdings in some of the world’s most important technology companies. For example, GlobalFoundries (GFS), which remains Mubadala’s largest holding, is valued at over $15.7 billion with 450 million shares. ARM Holdings (ARM) holds 1.37 million shares valued at approximately $150.5 million, while Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF) holds a massive position of 29.1 million shares worth over $423 million.

Institutional crypto adoption

Goldman Sachs recently revealed in a separate filing that it holds over $1.1 billion in the same BlackRock Bitcoin ETF. Other major banks, including Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, have recently updated their policies to allow their thousands of financial advisors to recommend Bitcoin ETFs to wealthy clients.

Abu Dhabi has worked hard to create a clear legal framework for digital assets, and by having its own sovereign fund invest so heavily, the government is “leading by example” to encourage other regional funds and private family offices to consider similar allocations.

However, Bitcoin is currently trading around $68,362, and some analysts, including those from Standard Chartered, have recently lowered their price targets, suggesting Bitcoin could decline to the $50,000 level if current market pressures continue.

Despite the price drop, the capital held in ETFs has remained relatively stable because its investors are mostly institutional buyers, like Mubadala, who do not panic-sell during monthly price swings.

The 13F filing also highlights Mubadala’s diverse interests beyond just tech and crypto. The fund holds positions in healthcare companies like AbbVie ($3.8M) and CVS Health ($11.8M), as well as gold mining companies like Agnico Eagle Mines ($7.4M) and Barrick Gold ($9.8M).

Other notable holdings in Mubadala’s portfolio include Adobe Inc and Walt Disney, which hold $4 million each. Ford Motor Company is slightly ahead with $4.3 million.

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Donald Trump said the $550 billion trade deal with Japan has officially launched. Trump posted the announcement on Truth Social.

He said Japan has started the first round of funding tied to the agreement. The deal commits $550 billion from Japan into projects across the United States. The focus is industry, energy, and minerals.

Trump wrote, “Our MASSIVE Trade Deal with Japan has just launched! Japan is now officially, and financially, moving forward with the FIRST set of Investments under its $550 BILLION Dollar Commitment to invest in the United States of America — part of our Historic Trade Deal to REVITALIZE the American Industrial Base, create HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of GREAT American Jobs, and strengthen our National and Economic Security like never before.” He said tariffs made the projects possible.

He announced three projects tied to the deal with Japan. One is oil and gas in Texas. One is power generation in Ohio. One is critical minerals in Georgia. Trump wrote, “Today, I am pleased to announce three TREMENDOUS Projects in the Strategic Areas of Oil & Gas in the Great State of Texas, Power Generation in the Great State of Ohio, and Critical Minerals in the Great State of Georgia.”

Trump said the gas plant in Ohio will be the largest in history. He said the LNG facility in the Gulf of America will increase exports. He said the minerals facility will end dependence on foreign sources.

Trump added, “America is building again. America is producing again. And America is WINNING again. This is a very exciting and HISTORIC time for the United States of America and Japan. Congratulations to all!”

Exports surge while U.S. shipments fall

New data showed exports from Japan climbed 16.8% in January compared with a year earlier. That beat expectations of 12%. It was the fastest pace since November 2022. December growth was 5.1%. Shipments to Asia rose nearly 26%. Exports to Western Europe increased more than 25%. North America recorded a 3.3% drop.

Exports to China jumped 32% after rising 5.6% in December. China remains the largest trading partner of Japan. The increase came during a diplomatic dispute tied to comments on Taiwan made by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Shipments to the United States fell 5% after dropping 11.1% in December. The United States is the second largest trading partner of Japan.

Food exports rose 31.3%. Machinery increased 14.3%. Electrical machinery, including chips, climbed 27.3%.

Transport equipment rose 0.8%. That category makes up over 20% of total exports and includes cars and auto parts. The sector has faced pressure from U.S. tariffs.

IMF urges rate hikes as economy slows

Markets reacted quickly. The Nikkei 225 gained 0.9%. The Topix rose 1.26%. The yen strengthened to 153.43 per dollar. The 10-year government bond yield slipped 1 basis point to 2.119%.

The International Monetary Fund urged Japan to keep raising interest rates. The IMF warned against loosening fiscal policy. It said cutting the consumption tax would weaken the country’s ability to respond to future shocks.

Sanae Takaichi won a landslide election and pledged to suspend the 8% consumption tax on food for two years. Investors are watching whether Sanae will resist further rate increases by the central bank.

The IMF said the Bank of Japan’s “continued independence and credibility” will keep inflation expectations anchored. It stated, “The BOJ is appropriately withdrawing monetary accommodation, and gradual hikes should continue to move the policy rate toward neutral.” It also said, “As the baseline projection continues to materialize, withdrawal of policy accommodation should continue so that the policy rate reaches a neutral stance in 2027.”

The economy of Japan grew 0.1% year on year in the fourth quarter. Private demand supported growth. Net exports reduced output by 0.8 percentage point.

For the full year, GDP expanded 1.1%. Shipments fell in the middle of 2025 due to tariff concerns. They rebounded later in the year after duties were reduced to 15% under the trade agreement with the United States involving Japan.

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The White House is preparing for the possibility of another high‑level meeting on stablecoin yield rules after the latest round of talks between banking groups and cryptocurrency industry leaders ended without a clear resolution, leaving a major piece of U.S. crypto legislation in limbo.

This could be the latest effort by the White House to reach a compromise, and Crypto reporter Eleanor Terrett said the meeting will likely happen on Thursday, according to sources.

Officials and industry insiders say the dispute over whether holders of dollar‑pegged stablecoins should be able to earn interest-like rewards remains the most contentious issue blocking progress on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.

The White House wants to hold talks to settle disagreements over stablecoin rewards

The White House wants to hold another private meeting with banks and crypto companies. At the center of the dispute is whether stablecoin companies or platforms should offer rewards, interest, or other incentives to holders of their tokens.

Banks say the rewards will make the banking system fragile, as more people move their deposits out of traditional banks, creating financial risks for many. But crypto companies argue that the banks will have an unfair advantage without the rewards, and that people will turn to other, less regulated options that carry more risk if stablecoins cannot benefit them.

The White House held meetings to find common ground between the two sides, including the latest one on February 3, 2026. Bank and major crypto leaders met to discuss the future of crypto in the economy, but the meeting bore no fruit because the two sides couldn’t agree on clear rules for stablecoin rewards.

The White House is now trying to bring both sides back to the table for another meeting and has even proposed changes to the language of the new rules for lawmakers to use. Instead of a simple discussion, the talks will act like a careful drafting process.

Until banks and crypto organizations are on the same page regarding yields and interest on these assets, the government cannot finalize the overall crypto regulatory guidelines.

Banks say they could lose deposits, while crypto companies say rewards are fair

Banks have raised alarms about the money they could lose if stablecoins pay rewards or interest, so to them, this is a matter of protecting their deposits and keeping the financial system steady.

Standard Chartered warned that U.S banks could lose as much as $500 billion in deposits by 2028 if consumers move their money into stablecoins that offer higher returns.

Crypto companies snapped back, saying users are already actively seeking ways to earn higher rewards and interest on their money, and they won’t hesitate to explore unregulated channels. The companies say consumer risks will be higher if stablecoin rewards are banned.

The discussions involved banking trade associations, crypto advocacy organizations such as the Blockchain Association, and major U.S.-facing exchanges, including Coinbase. Their involvement shows just how complex and detailed the conversations are and how invested leaders are in finding a solution that works for both parties.

The meetings may have helped both banks and stablecoin companies understand each other’s concerns, but the rewards issue is still delaying progress in the expected crypto regulations. Both parties have exchanged ideas in every meeting, but have yet to reach an agreement that benefits everyone.

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Nvidia has signed a multiyear, multigenerational partnership with Meta that covers on-premises systems, cloud deployments, and full AI infrastructure.

The deal locks in shipments of Nvidia Blackwell and Rubin GPUs, along with Nvidia Grace CPUs and future Vera CPUs. The agreement spans training systems, inference systems, and networking across Meta’s global data centers.

Meta said it will build hyperscale data centers designed for both training and inference as part of its long-term AI roadmap.

The plan includes deploying millions of Nvidia Blackwell and Rubin GPUs. It also includes large-scale rollout of Nvidia CPUs. On the networking side, Meta will integrate Nvidia Spectrum-X Ethernet switches into its Facebook Open Switching System platform.

Meta expands AI clusters with Blackwell and Rubin

Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvidia, said, “No one deploys AI at Meta’s scale — integrating frontier research with industrial-scale infrastructure to power the world’s largest personalization and recommendation systems for billions of users.”

Jensen also said, “Through deep codesign across CPUs, GPUs, networking and software, we are bringing the full NVIDIA platform to Meta’s researchers and engineers as they build the foundation for the next AI frontier.”

Mark Zuckerberg, founder and CEO of Meta, said, “We’re excited to expand our partnership with NVIDIA to build leading-edge clusters using their Vera Rubin platform to deliver personal superintelligence to everyone in the world.”

Meta will deploy industry-leading GB300-based systems as part of this rollout. The company plans to build one unified architecture that connects its on-premises data centers with Nvidia Cloud Partner deployments. The goal is to keep operations simple while scaling performance across regions.

Meta has adopted the Nvidia Spectrum-X Ethernet networking platform across its infrastructure footprint. The networking system is designed for AI-scale traffic. It is built to deliver predictable, low-latency performance while maximizing hardware use and improving power efficiency.

Meta rolls out Grace and Vera CPUs while Nvidia exits Arm

Meta and Nvidia are continuing their work on Arm-based Grace CPUs inside Meta’s production data centers. The Grace chips are designed to improve performance per watt.

This collaboration represents the first large-scale Grace-only deployment. The companies invested in codesign and software optimization across CPU ecosystem libraries to improve efficiency with each generation.

The two companies are also working on deploying Vera CPUs. Large-scale deployment could begin in 2027. Vera is expected to extend Meta’s energy-efficient AI compute footprint and support the broader Arm software ecosystem.

Separately, Nvidia has sold the remainder of its stake in Arm, unloading 1.1 million shares valued at about $140 million based on Arm’s closing price Tuesday. The sale took place in the fourth quarter of last year and reduces Nvidia’s stake in Arm to zero.

The sale ends a long chapter. In 2020, Nvidia agreed to buy Arm for $40 billion. The deal faced opposition from regulators and industry players soon after it was announced. Arm’s chip technology supports most advanced semiconductors worldwide, and its independence was viewed as critical. In February 2022, both sides terminated the agreement.

Arm, majority-owned by SoftBank, later moved forward with plans to sell shares to the public.

SoftBank dumped its entire Nvidia stake in October. The sale was quiet but huge. It unloaded about $5.8 billion worth of shares. The goal was simple. Free up cash and double down on OpenAI. Clean break. No leftovers.

Since that disclosure, Nvidia has slipped around 7%. Now it heads into its February 26 earnings report with analysts still projecting revenue growth of 67%.

Masayoshi Son does not hedge. He goes all in. Then he goes all in again on something else. Each new bet usually requires selling the last one. He thinks in bold swings, not small trims. And the numbers he deals with rarely look normal. They look unreal.

This is the second time he has fully exited Nvidia. The first time was in 2019. That exit turned into one of those stories people bring up when they talk about regret. SoftBank had bought a 4.9% stake in the chipmaker in 2017 for roughly $4 billion. The position later generated about $3 billion in profit. Then crypto mining collapsed. Nvidia shares fell about 50%. SoftBank sold. At the time, it looked rational.

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Ford is putting a $5 billion bet on its next generation of electric vehicles, with a $30,000 electric truck built on a new Universal EV platform.

The company said Tuesday that this platform will use a growing technology that Tesla already commercialized in the U.S. with the Cybertruck.

This plan comes as electric vehicle costs remain high, mostly because of the battery. Ford says the battery makes up about 40% of total vehicle cost and more than 25% of total weight.

Instead of adding more battery to calm range anxiety, Ford is targeting efficiency across the whole vehicle.

Ford revisits turbo strategy, turning its focus to smaller batteries

Up until the early 1970s, carmakers followed one rule for gas vehicles. More power meant a bigger engine. Bigger engines meant more weight, more cost, and worse fuel economy. Then the fuel crisis in the mid-1970s changed the game. Automakers needed both power and fuel savings. The turbocharger stepped in.

The first racing use appeared in 1962. The real mainstream shift came in 1973 with the BMW 2002 Turbo.

That car showed that a smaller engine could deliver strong output. The turbo used wasted energy to create more compression. A small engine could act like a larger one.

In 2011, Ford introduced EcoBoost on the F-150 pickup in the U.S. Many doubted buyers would accept smaller turbo engines in trucks. Sales later surged. Today, nearly 75% of F-150 trucks are sold with turbocharged engines, and almost all Ford gas vehicles offer a turbo option.

Ford now draws a parallel with EVs. Adding more battery increases cost and weight. It also creates what the company calls a major physics challenge. The new bet is system integration.

Ford is moving power electronics in-house and building full charging stack

Ford defines electrical architecture as the blueprint for how power and signals move through a vehicle, saying, ” Power conversion within an electric vehicle platform can account for a surprising amount of wasted energy in a vehicle while charging or even taking energy from the 400V battery and converting it to 48V for the low-voltage devices.”

Many of these functions are usually sourced to outside suppliers. Each supplier adds its own housing, fasteners, and connectors. That increases cost and weight.

In 2023, Ford brought its high-voltage power electronics architecture and design in-house. The company acquired Auto Motive Power, or AMP. Engineers from AMP joined the team. They had prior experience in power conversion and energy management for global EVs already on sale.

For the first time, customers will use a fully electric charging ecosystem designed internally by Ford with its own software. Hardware, including bi-directional charging, comes from the same integrated team working on the platform and vehicle, which Ford says reduces charging time, extends battery life, and lowers total ownership cost.

The work goes beyond introducing Ford’s first 48-volt low-voltage system. The new hardware and software helped cut the mid-size electric truck’s wire harness by 4,000 feet. It also made it 22 pounds lighter than one of Ford’s first-generation EVs.

Ford said, “We know there will be skeptics, just like there were when Ford introduced the turbo on the F-150. Other companies will claim that they’ve tried much of this before. But physics isn’t proprietary. We’re creating a truly integrated electric vehicle platform, not a single part that can be easily copied.”

If the strategy works, Ford says it will offer a family of EVs priced to compete with top global vehicles, including gas models. The company acquired Auto Motive Power, or AMP. It also says progress is underway and more details will follow.

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President Donald Trump is touting potentially major tax refunds ahead of the 2026 filing season, claiming that millions of Americans could see their refunds rise by over 20% due to his signature tax overhaul, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

In a post on his social platform, Trump said that taxpayers will receive “substantially greater than ever before” refunds when they file their 2025 tax returns this spring.

Trump pointed to provisions in the law that cut or eliminate taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits for seniors, and introduced new deductions.

Donald Trump explains tax changes that could increase refunds

Trump explained that his “One Big Beautiful Bill” includes tax relief measures that will help people retain more of their tax money throughout the year.

Americans will now have fewer costs counted when they calculate their annual taxes because the law removes federal taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits for seniors. It also allows people to deduct any interest on car loans. Because of these changes, people may owe less tax when they file their returns and receive a larger refund once the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) processes their filings. 

The refunds may even be more than 20% higher for certain taxpayers because of the combined effect of these tax relief measures.

The new bill retains tax cuts and changes how the government spends money

Under the new bill, people will continue to pay lower taxes in the future because it retains several tax cuts first introduced under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. These cuts were set to expire in 2025 but will remain in effect under the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”

The tax cuts allow people to keep more of the money they earn from their jobs, businesses, or other work-related activities, reducing the total tax they owe at the end of the year. This is directly related to the amount of refund they can get when they file their tax returns.

This bill also allocates funds to national defense and border security while cutting spending in some government programs and Medicaid. This helps to redistribute public funds in different sectors of the economy.

This means the upcoming tax-filing season may be the largest in the US, especially given the bill’s direct impact on 2025 tax returns. People must file their returns by the 15th of April, 2026, and the changes made to the bill are likely to appear during the 2026 filing season.

After filing their returns, the refund process begins. The IRS says that if people file their returns online and use direct deposit to receive their refunds, they will receive them within 3 weeks of processing.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the total package could add as much as $3.3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next ten years, depending on current forecasts. However, this legislation could also spur economic growth and lead to more refunds for taxpayers in the coming tax seasons.

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Ross Gerber prominent Wall Street investor is calling on Tesla to sell its electric vehicle business to rival Rivian, saying the Tesla name has become a liability rather than an asset.

Gerber said on Monday that Tesla’s brand has fallen so far that it is now working against the company. Writing on X, he said: “Unfortunately the value of Tesla’s brand has been reduced to a negative. Tesla would sell more cars if they changed their name and sold the EV business to Rivian.”

Gerber is not alone in this view. Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, has also said that Musk’s political activities have damaged how people see the Tesla brand.

Rivian has said it will announce official pricing for the R2 on March 12. The vehicle was recently spotted in Fairbanks, Alaska, during cold-weather testing, and photos showed it charging at a Tesla Supercharger station in the city.

On the Tesla side, Musk confirmed that production of the Cybercab is set to begin in April, with the company also touting changes to its manufacturing process.

Rivian posts surprise profit, shares jump 27%

Rivian delivered a shock to the market last week when it reported far stronger results than analysts had expected. Shares in the Irvine, California-based company jumped 27% on Friday after the announcement, with investors seeing the numbers as a sign that Rivian may finally be on its way to lasting profitability after years of heavy losses.

For 2025, Rivian reported a gross profit of $144 million, a major turnaround from a net loss of $1.2 billion in 2024.

“It’s a turnaround for the ages,” said Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities. “The past few years have been very frustrating for investors.”

Rivian said the improvement came from stronger software and services revenue, higher average selling prices, and lower costs per vehicle.

Rivian delivered 42,247 vehicles in 2025, down from a record 51,579 the year before, and produced 42,284 over the same period. It still recorded a net loss of $432 million for the year on its automotive operations, though that was an improvement from 2024. The company said it expects to deliver between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles this year.

Rivian also said Amazon now has more than 30,000 custom-built electric delivery vans running in the United States and parts of Europe. The vans are part of a deal that calls for Amazon to have 100,000 of the purpose-built vehicles on the road by 2030.

The delivery van has been in production largely unchanged since late 2021. Its biggest update came in 2023 when Rivian switched to a lithium iron phosphate battery pack and an in-house electric motor. The company is now planning a broader refresh for the van, which has led segment sales in the United States, boosted in large part by the Amazon contract.

Tesla’s profits fall for second straight year

Tesla, by contrast, reported its second straight year of falling profits last month. The Austin-based company’s net income dropped 46% in 2025, coming in at $3.8 billion.

On Sunday, Daniel Milligan posted a video on X tagging Elon Musk and Tesla’s VP of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, saying his Tesla “tried to drive” him into a lake while running Full Self-Driving version 14.2.2.4.

My Tesla tried to drive me into a lake today! FSD version 14.2.2.4 (2025.45.9.1)@Tesla @aelluswamy pic.twitter.com/ykWZFjUm8k

— Daniel Milligan (@lilmill2000) February 16, 2026

In the video, Milligan sets a destination on the map, activates FSD, and the car heads straight onto a boat ramp before he hits the brakes.

Milligan then posted a follow-up video the next day to show the incident was not a one-off. “Here is a video I took inside the car to prove I didn’t fake it. It’s repeatable at night,” he wrote. Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.

The videos have drawn fresh attention to questions about how reliable FSD actually is. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened a probe into the technology in October last year, covering over 2.88 million Tesla vehicles after receiving reports of more than 50 traffic safety violations and multiple accidents.

Milligan is not the only one raising concerns. Gerber has also criticized FSD, calling it “annoying” and saying it does not work properly in sunny weather. Gerber was also using version 14.2.2.4 at the time.

Musk, meanwhile, has continued to tout Tesla as having the largest autonomous vehicle fleet in the world. Investor Gary Black of the Future Fund LLC says Tesla stock could rally once the company announces it is running hundreds of unsupervised Robotaxis in Austin and other cities.

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Kraken has joined ICE Chat to scale up AI-assisted messaging for institutional crypto trading, with the platform’s global user base hitting 5.7 million. 

Through ICE Chat, institutional clients can now directly interact with Kraken’s trading desk using advanced messaging tools, reflecting the growing adoption of AI-assisted systems in digital asset markets.

The integration also connects Kraken’s OTC desk to ICE Chat, the Intercontinental Exchange’s platform used by over 120,000 traders worldwide,  including banks, brokers, asset managers, and trading desks, to exchange insights and execute trades efficiently.

Thanks to the integration, these institutions can tap into Kraken via a system seamlessly integrated with their daily trading operations. Institutional traders can negotiate crypto trades, request pricing, and execute large trades directly with Kraken’s OTC desk via ICE Chat. 

Kraken says it is the first cryptocurrency exchange approved to integrate with ICE Chat. This makes crypto trading part of an existing institutional communication network, allowing large financial players to participate more easily in digital asset markets. The companies said they would expand the integration further over time. The move is part of a wider strategy to embed crypto trading into traditional financial infrastructure, enabling institutions to access digital assets using established tools and workflows.

ICE is a major global market infrastructure provider offering exchange, clearing, data, and technology solutions across financial markets. The announcement also comes after Kraken made a recent pledge to support US President Donald Trump’s proposed “Trump Accounts,” a savings program for Americans under 18. 

ICE drives growth in crypto and tokenized assets

Over the past year, Intercontinental Exchange has increased its activity in the crypto and blockchain sectors. The company is looking beyond its core exchange business into blockchain data services, prediction markets, and crypto payments. 

ICE teamed up with Chainlink, a blockchain oracle provider, in August. The idea was to bring foreign exchange and precious metals data onchain. With Chainlink-related solutions, the first of its kind in a global network, the collaboration brings ICE’s Consolidated Feed — which pulls pricing data from over 300 global exchanges and marketplaces — into the fold as well. That allows blockchain applications to access verified market data from traditional financial markets. 

In October, ICE invested $2 billion in Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market platform. The deal is said to have valued Polymarket at $9 billion after the investment. This was followed in December by ICE entering discussions to support MoonPay, a crypto payments company seeking a reported $5 billion valuation in its latest funding round. 

ICE’s investment in MoonPay was not disclosed. What has been revealed is that ICE not only provides the physical infrastructure for digital assets but also takes financial stakes in companies operating in this world of cryptocurrency. Kraken integration is part of ICE positioning itself as a bridge between traditional finance and blockchain-based markets.

Major exchanges push forward with tokenized trading

Other leading US exchanges are also exploring tokenization. Nasdaq submitted a request to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in September. The filing asked for approval to list tokenized stocks under a proposed rule change.

In January, the New York Stock Exchange unveiled plans to develop a 24/7 trading platform for tokenized stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The plan would bring together elements of the exchange’s Pillar matching engine with blockchain-based systems for post-trade settlement.

The project is subject to regulatory approval. All of which together indicates that big financial institutions are taking digital assets more seriously. Kraken is leveraging a large, established institutional trading community by bringing its OTC desk to ICE Chat.

Meanwhile, ICE and other exchanges are deepening their presence in the blockchain marketplace. Integration between traditional and digital finance may become more common as the two converge. 

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Stablecoin platform Bridge, which was acquired by Stripe last year, has received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to become a federally chartered national trust bank. 

A national trust bank charter would enable Bridge to become a major participant in the stablecoin ecosystem. Stablecoins are digital currencies designed to maintain stable value, often backed by reserve holdings such as U.S. dollars. With federal permission, Bridge would be able to safely store digital assets for its customers, issue its own stablecoins, and monitor the funds that hold those stablecoins. 

The approval would bolster Bridge’s ability to cater to businesses that seek to employ digital dollars, Bridge said. These are financial institutions, fintech companies, crypto firms, and enterprises seeking faster, easier payment options. If Bridge operated under a federal umbrella, these customers would be more confident that it would adhere closely to regulations and compliance standards. 

Bridge said that becoming a nationally chartered trust bank would create “the regulatory backbone” companies need to deploy stablecoins securely and at scale. The same federal oversight could ease the process for traditional financial institutions to partner with Bridge, too, as many banks prefer to work with regulated institutions. 

Crypto firms accelerate push for federal charters as regulators open doors

Bridge isn’t the only company applying for federal approval. Other large crypto firms are also seeking charters from the OCC, including Ripple, Circle, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Paxos. 

All of these companies reportedly received conditional approvals in December, showing federal regulators are willing to recognize crypto companies in the broader context of banking. Only Anchorage Digital Bank has gone through the process and secured a national trust bank charter, which it did in 2021. 

The Anchorage decision was a milestone at the time — though progress has been mixed since then due to regulatory conservatism and worries regarding crypto risks. 

But momentum has started to pick up again. The new approvals suggest regulators prefer to push crypto companies into the regulated financial system rather than exclude them.

New stablecoin law gives crypto firms a clearer path to regulation

Bridge said its compliance systems are designed to comply with the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, also known as the GENIUS Act. Signed last year, this law establishes the legal framework for issuing stablecoins and overseeing them in the U.S. The law includes measures that will increase transparency, toughen reserve requirements, and ensure safe and reliable assets for stablecoins. 

It also provides federal regulators with a clearer scope to oversee firms involved in stablecoin issuance and custody. Bridge’s conditional endorsement puts it in a position to make use of this new regulatory framework. 

Bridge could provide stablecoin services in compliance with national banking standards by operating as a federally chartered trust bank. The move is part of a broader trend among crypto companies to legitimize themselves through regulation. 

Instead of playing in an uncertain legal environment, many corporations’ current mindset is that federal charters provide a means to build trust, especially to lure institutional clients. Now, the crypto banking has been met with some skepticism. 

Those who object are concerned that cryptocurrency companies could operate as banks, adding new risks to the financial system if allowed to do so. Regulators are therefore moving very slowly, with conditional approvals, while being careful to adopt a very specific approach. 

Bridge’s progress could help strengthen Stripe’s position in digital payments. Stablecoins are also becoming a more rapid and cost-effective substitute for traditional cross-border payment systems. If approved, Bridge could help Stripe’s digital dollar infrastructure expand and reach more customers worldwide. 

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Figma is partnering with Anthropic and launching Code to Canvas, a feature that converts code generated in AI tools like Claude Code into fully editable designs inside Figma. Users who build working interfaces by prompting an AI agent can bring that interface straight into Figma’s canvas.

Figma announced the feature Tuesday. It links AI coding tools with Figma’s workflow so teams can refine the design, compare options side by side, and align on design decisions. Figma is betting that agentic coding tools like Claude Code have not eliminated design. The risk is that Figma is creating a better on-ramp to a highway it no longer controls.

Code to Canvas turns AI-produced interface code into designs teams can adjust inside Figma. You build an interface with Claude Code, then bring it into the canvas and keep working.

Anthropic makes Sonnet 4.6 the default in Claude and Cowork

On Tuesday, Anthropic rolled out Claude Sonnet 4.6 and said it is better at using computers, coding, design, completing knowledge work tasks, and processing large amounts of data. For Anthropic Free users and paid Pro users, Sonnet 4.6 now serves as the default within the Claude chatbot and the Claude Cowork productivity tool.

The press release said: “Claude Sonnet 4.6 is our most capable Sonnet model yet. It’s a full upgrade of the model’s skills across coding, computer use, long-context reasoning, agent planning, knowledge work, and design. Sonnet 4.6 also features a 1M token context window in beta.”

It also said: “For those on our Free and Pro plans, Claude Sonnet 4.6 is now the default model in claude.ai and Claude Cowork. Pricing remains the same as Sonnet 4.5, starting at $3/$15 per million tokens.”

The company said improved consistency and instruction following made developers with early access prefer Sonnet 4.6 over Sonnet 4.5 by a wide margin. It also said they often preferred it to Claude Opus 4.5, the company’s smartest model from November 2025.

“The model certainly still lags behind the most skilled humans at using computers. But the rate of progress is remarkable nonetheless. It means that computer use is much more useful for a range of work tasks—and that substantially more capable models are within reach.”

-Anthropic

Sonnet 4.6 tests allegedly show 70% preference for users, says Anthropic

Anthropic said that in Claude Code, early testing found users preferred Sonnet 4.6 over Sonnet 4.5 about 70% of the time. Users reported that Sonnet 4.6 read the context before modifying code and consolidated shared logic rather than duplicating it.

“Users even preferred Sonnet 4.6 to Opus 4.5, our frontier model from November, 59% of the time. They rated Sonnet 4.6 as significantly less prone to overengineering and “laziness,” and meaningfully better at instruction following. They reported fewer false claims of success, fewer hallucinations, and more consistent follow-through on multi-step tasks,” said Anthropic.

Sonnet 4.6’s 1M token context window can hold entire codebases, lengthy contracts, or dozens of research papers in a single request.

The company pointed to the Vending-Bench Arena evaluation, which tests how well a model can run a simulated business over time, and it includes competition where models face off to make the biggest profits. Sonnet 4.6 invested heavily in capacity for the first ten simulated months, spending significantly more than competitors, then pivoted sharply to focus on profitability in the final stretch. The timing of the pivot helped it finish well ahead of the competition.

On safety, Anthropic said it ran extensive evaluations and found Sonnet 4.6 to be as safe as, or safer than, other recent Claude models. Its safety researchers said Sonnet 4.6 has “a broadly warm, honest, prosocial, and at times funny character, very strong safety behaviors, and no signs of major concerns around high-stakes forms of misalignment.”

Beyond computer use, Anthropic said Sonnet 4.6 improved on benchmarks across the board and approaches Opus-level intelligence at a price point that makes it practical for more tasks. It said the system card covers capabilities and safety-related behaviors, with a summary, a comparison to other recent models, and a table of popular benchmark results.

Early customers reported broad improvements, with frontend code and financial analysis standing out. Customers described visual outputs from Sonnet 4.6 as more polished, with better layouts, animations, and design sensibility than previous Sonnet models. They also said they needed fewer rounds of iteration to reach production-quality results.

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Eric Trump announced today that American Bitcoin Corp, the Trump family-backed mining and treasury firm, now formally holds 6,000 Bitcoin in its reserves, becoming one of the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holders in less than 6 months of public trading.

The firm’s co-founder and chief strategy officer (CSO) Eric Trump made the announcement on February 17, 2026, on his X account, stating that American Bitcoin had reached “an incredible milestone” by surpassing 6,000 BTC “in under 6 months since our Nasdaq debut.”

According to blockchain data from Arkham Intelligence, American Bitcoin now holds 6,072 BTC, good enough to be among the top-20 publicly traded Bitcoin treasury holders globally.

Source: Arkham Intelligence

Mining-to-treasury model delivers rapid accumulation in under 6 months

American Bitcoin’s growth trajectory has been moving with some record velocity, growing by approximately 217 BTC in January alone.

This accumulation strategy was a mix of mining output and direct market purchases, which the firm called a “mining to treasury” pipeline designed to outperform traditional mining operations that sell their production to cover costs.

According to industry analysts, American Bitcoin’s partnership with Hut 8 Corp (who owns an 80% stake in the venture) currently delivers between 8 and 10 BTC daily through a mining facility that’s the size of five football fields.

Eric Trump, who also serves as the Chief Strategy Officer and co-founder of ABTC, visited the facility recently and emphasized the company’s mission to build a “strategic bitcoin reserve” by retaining mined Bitcoin rather than liquidating it to cover operational costs.

ABTC also reported a Bitcoin yield of approximately 116% from its September 2025 Nasdaq debut till late January 2026. Bitcoin yield measures growth in holdings from mined or purchased coins (calculated separately from capital raising activity), meaning that the growth of ABTC’s holdings reflects actual Bitcoin accumulation as opposed to dilutive equity financing.

Hyperscale Data crosses 600 BTC

American Bitcoin’s milestone achievement is part of a broader wave of corporate treasury Bitcoin accumulation. Hyperscale Data, based in Las Vegas, announced today as well that its Bitcoin treasury had reached 600.5299 Bitcoin (valued at approximately $41.3 million).

Speaking on this achievement, Hyperscale Data’s Executive Chairman, Milton “Todd” Ault III, stated that “Surpassing 600 Bitcoin is a significant milestone that underscores our commitment to our Bitcoin treasury strategy.”

The AI data center company’s assets are split between subsidiaries Sentinum (554.4002 BTC) and Ault Capital Group (46.1711 BTC), with the latter acquiring 4.6024 BTC in the open market just last week.

However, there is something unusual about Hyperscale Data’s position. Apparently, the company’s combined cash, restricted cash, and Bitcoin holdings (worth approximately $87.6 million combined) represented 135.82% of the company’s market cap based on its February 13th closing stock price.

This suggests that the firm’s liquid assets alone are more than the entire equity valuation, a disconnect that the management attributed to the market failing to reflect balance sheet strength in the share price.

The company targets deploying at least 5% of allocated cash each week into Bitcoin purchases through a dollar-cost-averaging strategy. Hyperscale Data has stated its goal is to reach $100 million in Bitcoin on its balance sheet, meaning current holdings represent roughly 41% of that target, with significant accumulation still planned.

DDC surpasses 2,000 BTC with 74.8% growth since January

Global Asian food platform DDC Enterprise also announced today that it had acquired an additional 80 Bitcoin, bringing its corporate treasury up to 2,068 BTC. This latest purchase marked DDC’s sixth consecutive week of Bitcoin accumulation and represented a 74.8% increase in holdings since the year started.

“This milestone is not about a single trade– it reflects disciplined execution and long-term treasury strategy,” stated Norma Chu, the founder, chairwoman and CEO of DDC. The company revealed that its average acquisition cost for the Bitcoin reserve now stands at $84,944 per coin, providing context for its cost basis since the market trades around $70,000.

According to analysts, DDC opted for gradual accumulation instead of costly one-off acquisitions, thus allowing it to broaden exposure while managing its risk and liquidity. This approach contrasts with other treasury firms that reported large unrealized losses due to the volatility of the market.

For example, mining firm Hive Digital Technologies posted an impressive 219% year-on-year revenue growth but recorded a $91.3 million net loss due to revaluation and adjustments.

The increase in corporate Bitcoin treasury activity in early 2026 highlights a maturing market dynamic where public companies are starting to view Bitcoin more as a strategic reserve asset than a speculative one.

While stock prices for a lot of treasury firms remain volatile, the speed of accumulation continues to increase, with American Bitcoin’s 6,000 BTC milestone, Hyperscale’s 600 BTC, and DDC’s 2,000 BTC milestones all happening within days of each other this month as Bitcoin tries to stabilize above $70,000.

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Pump.fun has been making moves to get public opinion out of the dumps and the enterprise just launched its latest initiative — the Cashback Coins feature, which is supposed to address talk of how some token deployers don’t deserve to claim creator fees. 

With the mechanism, users are given the ability to decide whether a token truly deserves Creator Fees or whether it makes more sense to reward the traders of the token.

In the post sharing the new development, Pump.fun insisted that Creator Fees are a net positive for helping teams, creators & founders grow & succeed. 

“However, many tokens achieve success without a team or project lead, thereby disproportionately rewarding token deployers who don’t deserve the fees,” the post reads. “Now, traders can choose to engage with tokens they feel the most aligned with, ultimately letting the market decide who gets rewarded and where the bar is set.” 

How the cashback feature works 

The way it works is simple; coin creators are now mandated to choose between Trader Cashback or Creator Fees before launch. Cashback Coins directs all the Creator Fees to the traders, and once launched, the decision will remain unchanged forever. 

This means that, unlike Creator Fee coins, Cashback Coins will not support CTOs. However, Cashback Coins will forever reward their respective traders & holders. Creator Fee coins are similarly locked forever.

It should be noted that this new initiative will only be applicable to new coins, rather than already deployed projects. 

Pump.fun’s redemption arc 

Since Pump.fun became active, tokenization has skyrocketed, and so has the failure rate of tokenized projects. According to a January report from Coingecko, 11.6 million cryptocurrency projects failed in 2025, the highest number of failures recorded in a single year. 

Those failures account for 86.3% of all project closures between 2021 and 2025. The report also stated that the drop in token survivability may be linked to overall market volatility throughout the year. However, there was no doubt about the fact that meme coins were affected the most as low-effort tokens launched on platforms like Pump.fun dominated new listings.

Pump.fun has been working hard to resist accusations of being an extractive machine. In response to the criticisms, the team has made a number of iterations to the Pump.fun product, and the Cashback Coins feature is the latest development. 

It seemed to work at first, but at the start of this year, the platform’s cofounder, Alon, openly admitted that the first iteration of the dynamic first system was doing more harm than good. 

Alon claimed it was encouraging the creation of low-risk tokens over trading, which posed a risk to long-term liquidity. It was replaced with a more market-driven approach that required traders to decide on fee applicability. 

In the same January, the platform rolled out fee sharing and controls, which allowed creators to split fees across up to 10 wallets, with transferable ownership and better tools for teams/CTO admins.  

The team has also been working hard on the mobile UX, while introducing features such as the movers feed, one-click trading and price alerts to encourage usage and keep things fun and accessible. 

Still no airdrop though 

Amid the recent developments from the Pump.fun platform, there hasn’t been much about the $PUMP airdrop. 

The airdrop was one of the platform’s main draws for users, but while the $PUMP token has been launched, there is barely any news about an upcoming airdrop. All the community has to go on are the teasers from 2024 and 2025 from the cofounders. 

The team has instead chosen to focus on shipping new features like the Cashback Coins feature and buybacks, positioning them as the primary method of reward for the ecosystem, as it reduces the supply and supports the price.

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Iran has partially closed the Strait of Hormuz, and state media said the action was taken under “security precautions” while the Revolutionary Guard carried out military drills inside the waterway.

The Strait sits between Oman and Iran, and it is the most critical oil route on Earth.

This is the first time Iran has shut parts of the Strait of Hormuz since U.S. President Donald Trump threatened Tehran with military action in January.

The waterway links crude producers in the Middle East to buyers across Asia, Europe, and the United States. In 2025, about 13 million barrels per day passed through it, which is roughly 31% of global seaborne crude flows, based on data from Kpler.

Even a partial restriction of Hormuz raises risk premiums. Shipping insurance costs will surge, and global oil markets will spike too, making life hard for average people all around the world.

Iran conducts drills as nuclear talks continue

At the same time, the United States and Iran held talks in Geneva over Tehran’s nuclear program. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke after the meeting. Abbas said both sides reached an understanding of the “guiding principles.” He also said progress does not mean a final agreement is close and that more work is still needed.

The International Energy Agency released its monthly oil report on Monday. The agency said world oil demand will grow more slowly than expected this year. It also warned that the global market still faces a sizeable surplus despite supply outages in January.

The IEA projected that global supply will exceed demand by 3.73 million barrels per day in 2026. That equals almost 4% of world demand. It is larger than other forecasts. The IEA said, “Escalating geopolitical tensions, snowstorms and extreme temperatures in North America, and Kazakh supply disruptions sparked the reversal to a bullish market.”

At the same time, the agency stated that “economic uncertainties and higher oil prices” are weighing on consumption.

World oil demand is now expected to rise by 850,000 barrels per day this year. That figure is 80,000 barrels per day lower than last month’s estimate. It is also below the projection from OPEC. Supply has grown faster than demand. OPEC+, which includes Russia and other allies, began increasing output in April 2025 after years of cuts. Producers such as the United States, Guyana, and Brazil also lifted production.

OPEC+ paused output hikes for the first quarter of 2026. Eight members will meet on March 1 to decide whether to resume increases in April. In January, global oil supply fell by 1.2 million barrels per day to 106.6 million barrels per day due to outages in Kazakhstan and other areas. The IEA lowered its 2026 supply growth forecast to 2.4 million barrels per day from 2.5 million.

OPEC+ pumped 43.3 million barrels per day in January, down 160,000 from December. That level remains well above the IEA estimate for demand for OPEC+ crude, which stands at 39.7 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 39.6 million in the second.

Data published by OPEC on Wednesday showed a much smaller surplus in the second quarter and a supply deficit in 2026 overall if output stays at January levels, based on Reuters calculations.

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Siding with a large platform against state gaming regulators attempting to shut it down, the U.S. commodities watchdog has entered a heated court battle about who actually has the authority to control prediction markets.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission supported Crypto.com in its dispute with the Nevada Gaming Control Board by submitting court documents to the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Tuesday. Lawyers for the federal government contend that only Washington, not states that consider these betting-style platforms like traditional casino gaming, may regulate them under commodity trading regulations.

Agency chairman vows to defend federal authority

The move marks a clear shift under Chairman Michael Selig, who assumed leadership and promptly signaled he intends to block state overreach. In a recent Wall Street Journal piece, Selig wrote that these markets let people hedge against real financial risks and should be viewed as regulated contracts rather than gambling.

He cited about 50 ongoing court cases nationwide targeting firms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Crypto.com. When states step in independently, he contended, it breeds inconsistency and undermines the national framework.

Selig reinforced his stance in an online video, noting the commission has regulated these kinds of markets for over two decades. He described how everyday individuals rely on them to offset losses tied to weather shifts or energy price swings. “We will see you in court,” he declared, underscoring the agency’s commitment to defending what it sees as fair, orderly markets.

The Trump administration appears to favor this federal-preemption stance, resisting state-level efforts to restrict or outlaw the platforms. Operators insist their systems function differently from conventional sportsbooks, which they say removes them from certain state gambling laws and specific federal tax obligations.

State officials take the opposite view. They classify these platforms as unlicensed wagering operations. Nevada blocked Kalshi and Polymarket from offering contracts after launching lawsuits, though those disputes remain under appeal.

Tennessee and New York have also acted, issuing cease-and-desist letters or warnings about violating gambling statutes. New York Attorney General Letitia James labeled platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket as bets “masquerading” as contracts, asserting they offer users virtually no meaningful safeguards.

Betting activity reaches record levels

The conflict is unfolding against a backdrop of surging wagering. A NerdWallet poll of 2,000 U.S. adults revealed 20% had placed sports bets in the previous year, up sharply from 12% in late 2023. Research has tied online sports betting to declining credit scores and rising debt, fueling concern about financial harm to participants.

Prediction markets themselves have exploded in scale. Leading sites like Kalshi and Polymarket have recorded peak trading volumes. On Super Bowl Sunday alone, over $1 billion in wagers flowed through, while annual figures have soared into the tens of billions, largely fueled by sports-related activity.

In February, twenty-three Democratic senators wrote to the CFTC voicing deep unease. Led by Adam Schiff and Catherine Cortez Masto, they urged the agency to avoid court interventions and reaffirm prohibitions on contracts tied to sports events, armed conflict, terrorism, or assassinations. They feared unchecked expansion might invite large-scale gambling abuses.

Selig promised to reevaluate whether the commission should become involved in lawsuits and create more specific regulations for prediction markets after he took office. He supported the agency’s jurisdictional knowledge.

Federal supervision might promote innovation and provide consistent national norms, allowing for more effective risk management than just conjecture.

However, without strong protections against manipulation and growing consumer debt, customers’ financial problems may worsen, especially because sports betting accounts for the majority of activity.

The courtroom battle will probably settle whether states or federal authorities hold the reins over a fast-growing, multi-billion-dollar industry.

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The Russian government may start blocking access to foreign cryptocurrency exchanges as soon as it regulates crypto trading in its jurisdiction in a few months’ time, according to industry watchers.

The warning comes amid restrictions on messaging apps, video-sharing sites, and social media networks based abroad, which recently affected popular platforms like Telegram, WhatsApp, and YouTube.

Meanwhile, the appetite of Russian financial firms for crypto profits has been growing, and they are already indicating their intentions to divert some of the massive flow of fees that’s currently leaving the country toward their own platforms, once the Russian crypto framework is in place.

Moscow may ban major coin trading venues in 2026

Russia is gearing up to begin adopting legislative changes that should properly regulate various crypto-related activities in the country by July 1, including investment and exchange, replacing a temporary solution that currently governs official operations with digital assets in its economy.

Regulators in Moscow gradually softened their stance on the matter in a pivotal 2025, with the Bank of Russia initially proposing an “experimental legal regime” for crypto transactions last spring and then legalizing the offering of crypto derivatives to “highly qualified investors” at the end of May.

In late December, the monetary authority announced a brand-new regulatory concept that suggests recognizing cryptocurrencies and stablecoins as “monetary assets” and expanding investor access to include even ordinary Russians, albeit under some limitations.

Analysts interviewed by leading Russian business news outlet RBC believe access to well-established global exchanges such as Bybit or OKX, for example, may be restricted when Moscow starts issuing licenses to domestic platforms.

According to Nikita Zuborev, senior analyst at the crypto exchange aggregator Bestchange.ru, that’s a likely development. He believes that as soon as Russia launches its own service providers, it will start to fight off major competitors. He elaborated:

“We expect Roskomnadzor to begin blocking websites of crypto exchanges not registered in Russia as early as this summer.”

The measures to be employed are likely to be the same as those currently targeting YouTube. Russia’s telecom and media watchdog recently deleted its domain, and that of Meta’s messenger WhatsApp, from its DNS servers, effectively cutting off access to them for Russian residents.

Zuborev warned that if foreign platforms are not allowed to obtain Russian licenses or at least permitted to operate as agents for domestic exchanges and brokers, a large portion of the existing market will move to the shadow economy, fragment, and become almost impossible to regulate.

Russia may follow in the footsteps of ally Belarus

What’s even more likely is a “Belarusian” scenario, thinks Dmitry Machikhin, lawyer and founder of BitOK, a provider of AML and KYT solutions for crypto businesses.

Belarus allows only companies registered as residents of its High-Tech Park (HTP) hub to process cryptocurrency transactions. In 2024, Minsk prohibited its citizens from buying and selling coins on foreign platforms.

He doubted, however, that it would be possible to enforce a similar ban, giving Binance as an example. At least a million Russians are still clients of the world’s largest digital-asset exchange, he pointed out, even after it officially pulled out of the country’s market.

Ignat Likhunov, founder of the law firm Cartesius, which specializes in providing legal advice in the crypto space, highlighted the lack of real levers to exert influence over foreign exchanges, which are not in a rush to comply with any requirements.

The authorities will probably restrict access to such platforms and to exchanges supporting sanctions against Russia and its citizens for various, including economic, reasons, he added.

Non-compliance with domestic data protection law could serve as grounds for blocking, too, as most of these trading services store the personal information of Russian citizens on servers located in Europe or the United States.

One thing is sure, Russia will try to put its hands on at least some of the commissions that foreign exchanges currently charge on its citizens and businesses, which amount to an estimated $15 billion.

Established financial players like the Moscow Exchange, which will be able to provide crypto services using their existing licenses under the upcoming rules, have already indicated they intend to do so.

Recently quoted by the business daily Vedomosti, the Chairman of the Supervisory Board of MOEX, Sergey Shvetsov, said Russia’s largest stock market plans to attract crypto turnover as soon as the law allows it.

The finance ministry in Moscow revealed last week that the total volume of Russian crypto transactions is already reaching 50 billion rubles (over $647 million) daily, as reported by Cryptopolitan.

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Gemini Space Station Inc., the crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, has revealed in an SEC Form 8-K filing that its Chief Operating Officer (COO) Marshall Beard, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Dan Chen, and Chief Legal Officer (CLO) Tyler Meade are all exiting their positions immediately. 

A replacement is not expected to be named for the COO position, with those duties expected to now be directed to Cameron Winklevoss. The other two roles already have interim replacements on hand 

The announcement comes days after the exchange revealed plans to lay off about 25% of its workforce and pull out of several countries, including the UK. 

Leadership overhaul at Gemini

The COO, Marshall Beard, not only stepped down from his position but also resigned from the board of directors. However, the company claims that his resignation did not happen because of a disagreement with Gemini regarding its operations, policies, or practices. 

His position will remain vacant as Gemini reportedly has no plans to appoint a successor. From here on out, Cameron Winklevoss, one of the company’s cofounders, will assume many of Beard’s responsibilities, particularly the revenue-generation functions, in addition to his current role. 

The CFO position will be taken over by Danijela Stojanovic, who has been acting in the Interim position since May 2025. She is a licensed CPA with experience working in senior finance roles at Blue Apron and PwC. Her compensation will include a $450,000 base salary and a restricted stock unit award of 132,275 shares vesting over two years.  

Kate Freedman, a former Associate General Counsel and Corporate Secretary, has been tapped as Interim CLO/General Counsel. 

The three departing executives are expected to enter separation agreements with the company, which could include limited transition services in exchange for continued base salary and benefits. 

No explicit reason has been given for what is going on, but experts are describing it as a major leadership shakeup linked to post-IPO cost-cutting measures and strategic retrenchment. 

Gemini unveiled plans to cut workforce and wind down global operations 

News of the shakeup in Gemini’s executive structure comes 12 days after the company revealed it is cutting up to 25% of its workforce and ending operations in the United Kingdom, European Union, and Australia.

The layoffs are expected to impact about 200 employees across Gemini’s operations in the US, Europe, and Singapore, and the Winklevoss twins have defended the cuts by claiming they would allow Gemini to “double down on America” and serve US customers.

“These foreign markets have proven hard to win in for various reasons, and we find ourselves stretched thin with a level of organizational and operational complexity that drives our cost structure up and slows us down,” the twins said in a blog post. “And we don’t have the demand in these regions to justify them.”

The crypto exchange has said it expects to be done with the layoffs and end operations in the aforementioned overseas markets by the first half of the year. All of this is happening months after Gemini went public via IPO.

Since the IPO, the stock has declined sharply, with preliminary 2025 figures showing significant net losses and operating costs that outpace revenue growth.

Gemini stock price. Source: Yahoo Finance

The GEMI stock is down almost 14% on the day, according to Yahoo Finance.

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Ahmedabad’s Crime Branch has arrested six people across two separate cybercrime investigations this month, one linked to a cryptocurrency fraud worth nearly Rs 100 crore (or about $11 million), and another involving a gang that swapped out real products from online deliveries with fakes.

The consecutive busts coincide with alarming national cyber fraud statistics. Online frauds cost Indians Rs22,495 crore ($2.48 billion) in 2025 alone, and the National Cyber Crime Reporting Portal received over 24 million complaints. The sum exceeds Rs 55,000 crore due to cumulative losses from prior years.

For two years, a software specialist avoids capture

Officers from the Crime Branch detained Sujit Shankarrao Dev, also known as Sujit Shankarrao Jadav, on February 17, 2026. He was a Satara, Maharashtra-born software specialist who had been residing in the Naroda area of Ahmedabad.

Dev became a wanted man in 2021 when a complaint was filed against him by the Dahisar police in Mumbai. He had promised residents of the Dahisar region four times their original investment in bitcoin and mining programs. He had the savings of more than a hundred people. By the time the group vanished, they had accumulated about Rs 100 crore.

He managed to stay out of reach for nearly two years. Officers eventually tracked him down using electronic surveillance and tip-offs from the Mumbai police. He was arrested near Ahmedabad Airport.

In addition to provisions 3 and 4 of the Maharashtra Protection of Interest of Depositors Act, Dev is currently charged under sections 406, 420, 34, and 120(B) of the Indian Penal Code.

Investors throw aside prudence in response to promises of guaranteed big profits. Money was transferred through anonymous digital wallets, stored in cold storage, or sent overseas. Investigators are still working to find the people who assisted Dev in running the scam and track down the money.

Gang targeted major e-commerce platforms

Authorities discontinued an investigation aimed at customers who made purchases on websites such as Flipkart and Amazon almost a week prior to Dev’s arrest.

The organization ran a “switch and scam” scheme. To intercept packages in transit, members often posed as delivery workers or worked with actual couriers. Expensive gadgets like laptops, smartphones, and smartwatches were removed from their packaging and swapped out for dummies or fakes.

The packages appeared to be unharmed when they were delivered after being resealed. The real products were quietly put up for sale somewhere else.

Five men were arrested: Ramlal, also known as Romil Gahlot, 27; Manoj Kumar Mali, 30; Bharat Kumar Sundesha, 25; Vishal Hasmukhbhai Panchal, 29, from Surat; and Vishal Kanjibhai Bavri from Ahmedabad.

Police recovered genuine and counterfeit goods worth more than Rs 20.5 lakh (specifically, items including eight genuine mobile phones, 25 dummy phones, three dummy earbuds, 12 dummy gaming processors, a camera lens, and an electric hair dryer, valued at around Rs 20.52 lakh).

Two others from Jalore, identified as Rishipal Bhati and Vinod, are still being looked for.

With obvious ties to Rajasthan, the gang operated in Ahmedabad, Vadodara, and Surat. The case highlights weaknesses in online companies’ delivery and return policies.

Rather than demanding unboxing footage or seal integrity, many businesses rely primarily on customer complaints. It is estimated that between 9 and 15 percent of all returns are fraudulent.

A wider problem

Both cases demonstrate how well-organized cybercrime networks have grown in India, attracting individuals from various states and using wildly disparate tactics to target victims. A significant amount of cyber losses in 2025 were caused by cryptocurrency investment fraud, and delivery and return schemes are still coming up with new ways to take advantage of the system.

Police warned people to be wary of any offer of assured profit. Only platforms that are regulated should be used for investments. It is recommended that internet customers record themselves opening deliveries. The national helpline can be reached at 1930 if someone suspects fraud.

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