Cryptopolitan

Stablecoin surge adds $2.25B in a week as market cap hits a ~$322B ATH and Q1 2026 trading volume reaches $8.3trillion, signaling a crypto market pickup. The stablecoin market is projected to exceed $600 billion by 2030 if major jurisdictions finalize relevant legislation, even under a 15% annual growth scenario.

The latest market data for April 2026 indicates that stablecoin dominance has risen to 13% of the total crypto market value, despite a recent 21% contraction in the broader crypto market. Meanwhile, the rapid inflow into stablecoins accounts for nearly 75% of all crypto trading volume in Q1 2026, with monthly transaction volumes reaching $7.5 trillion in March. The unprecedented stablecoin trading volume is so far the highest share on record, suggesting growing confidence and renewed momentum across the broader crypto market.

Specifically, Circle’s USDC supply has surged 220% to approximately $78 billion since late 2023, adding $2 billion in supply in the first quarter of 2026. Tether’s USDT, on the other hand, has shed $3 billion in supply during Q1 2026, despite leading the market with 59.18% market share. Artemis analytics data shows that active USDT addresses have also increased by 30% to 2.87 million, and the transaction volume has surged 140% to $60.4 billion over the past 30 days.

Yield-bearing stablecoins fuel over 50% of net supply increase

According to CEX.IO Research, yield-bearing stablecoins have fueled more than half of the net stablecoin supply increase during the last quarter. Yield-bearing stablecoins grew by more than 22% in Q1 2026 alone, adding roughly $4.3 billion in market cap. As a result, yield-bearing stablecoins, such as USDY, are dominating assets posting the largest supply gains in Q1 2026, jumping by over 150% in market cap during the quarter. 

Meanwhile, sUSDS added over $2.5 billion in market cap, accounting for more capital inflow than the next four yield-bearing stablecoins combined in absolute terms. USDS, which largely serves as an entry point to sUSDS, was among the top performers linked to yield-generating tokens. 

The USD1 token has also benefited from the launch of World Liberty Markets, which expanded the stablecoin’s yield access and DeFi utility. Yields are clearly driving adoption even where they are indirect. The yield-bearing stablecoin subsector is now valued at $3.7 billion, and is projected to more than triple later this year. 

Stablecoin surge signals potential for crypto ‘dry powder’ accumulation

The surge in total stablecoin market capitalization is widely viewed as a coiled spring for the crypto market, signaling potential “dry powder” accumulation. Dry powder accumulation refers to the massive increase in stablecoin supply, often preceding a risk reboot or bull market pickup as liquidity waits to enter the market. 

According to Coingecko’s 2026 Q1 Crypto Industry Research, the total stablecoin market cap saw a marginal increase of 0.5% (+$1.6B) in Q1 2026, ending the quarter at over $300 billion. The stability occurred despite the broader crypto market drawdown, highlighting the sector’s role as a liquidity anchor. 

Meanwhile, stablecoin transaction activity reached a new ATH in Q1 2026, with the total volume jumping 51% to surpass $28 trillion. However, around 76% of all stablecoin transaction volume in Q1 2026 was driven by bots, the highest level since Q2 2024 and up from 70% in Q4 2025. Bot activity trends are even more pronounced on Ethereum and Tron in Q1 2026, with the highest levels of bot-driven stablecoin activity reaching 72% and 54%, respectively.

Specifically, USDC transfers accounted for nearly 80% of total stablecoin transaction volume and 85% of all bot-driven activity in Q1 2026, according to CEX.IO Research. The increased automation has further reinforced USDC’s dominance across the stablecoin landscape, although the token recorded one of its strongest gains in organic (adjusted) activity. USDC now accounts for roughly 63% of organic volume on an annualized basis, the highest share ever since 2018.

In contrast, USDT recorded one of its sharpest drops on record, with organic volume declining by 17%. The token’s role appears to be drifting toward off-chain trading, reinforcing the growing difference in how stablecoins function within the ecosystem.

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported its strongest quarterly earnings on Thursday, driven by demand for advanced chips used in artificial intelligence systems. The company bumped up its growth projections while announcing plans to boost spending on new production facilities.

TSMC said it earned T$572.5 billion ($18.2 billion) in the first quarter of 2026, a 58% jump from last year. The results beat analyst expectations and marked the eighth straight quarter of double-digit profit growth.

Revenue climbed 35% to NT$1,134.1 billion during the period. The company now expects full-year revenue to rise by more than 30% in dollar terms, up from an earlier prediction of close to 30% growth.

TSMC also plans to spend at the upper end of its $52 billion to $56 billion capital expenditure range for 2026. The money will go toward building new factories and expanding production to keep up with customer orders.

AI demand remains strong despite global tensions

“Our conviction in the multi-year AI megatrend remains high, and we believe the demand for semiconductors will continue to be very fundamental,” Chief Executive C.C. Wei told analysts during an earnings call.

Wei acknowledged concerns about global economic uncertainty from the Middle East conflict but said demand related to AI technology has been “extremely robust.” Production capacity remains very tight across the company’s operations, he added.

The company supplies chips to Nvidia, which designs processors that power AI systems. At a recent industry conference, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang revealed orders for the company’s products have reached into the trillions of dollars, far exceeding annual revenue.

TSMC is expanding its capacity to make 3-nanometer chips used in AI processors. The expansion includes facilities in Taiwan, the United States, and Japan, allowing the company to produce much larger quantities by 2027 and 2028. The U.S. expansion involves a $165 billion investment in chip factories in Arizona, one of the largest foreign investments in American manufacturing.

Ben Barringer, who heads technology research at Quilter Cheviot, said the results showed more than just strong revenue. “We are also seeing really strong margins and high utilization. Essentially, TSMC’s fabs are running hot, and the AI story just keeps delivering,” he said.

Taiwan’s stock market overtakes UK

The performance has pushed Taiwan’s stock market past the United Kingdom in total value, according to Bloomberg dataset. Taiwan’s market capitalization reached $4.13 trillion on Thursday, ahead of the UK’s $4.09 trillion, according to Bloomberg data. That makes Taiwan the seventh-largest stock market worldwide.

TSMC accounts for 45% of Taiwan’s total market value. The stock has gained almost a third of its value this year, hitting an all-time high. Taiwan’s main Taiex index is up 26.5% for the year, while the UK’s FTSE 100 has risen 6.1%.

William Bratton, who leads cash equity research for Asia-Pacific at BNP Paribas, described it as “the tech and AI supercycle.” He noted that the UK and most of Europe lack major companies exposed to the current technology boom in publicly traded stocks.

The capacity crunch at TSMC has created a bottleneck across the semiconductor industry. The company’s advanced manufacturing slots are booked through 2028. Major customers include Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and Qualcomm.

TSMC’s location in Taiwan has concerned some investors due to tensions between Taiwan and China. In 2022, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought shares in TSMC but sold them within months over geopolitical worries.

But TSMC produced over 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors in 2025. The company generated more than $122 billion in revenue last year, up 32% from 2024. Only 9% came from China, while 74% came from North America.

The prediction market Polymarket currently estimates a 12% chance of a military clash between Taiwan and China this year, a probability that’s remained unchanged despite recent Middle East tensions. The U.S. Navy continues to maintain a presence in the Taiwan Strait.

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São Paulo, April 16, 2026 – Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by traded volume and chosen by over 300 million users worldwide, is thrilled to announce the appointment of Thiago Sarandy as General Manager for Brazil amid a fast evolving crypto regulation debate in Latin America’s largest market.

In this expanded role, Sarandy will lead the 5th largest crypto market in the world and of Binance’s prioritary markets. Since joining Binance in 2022, Sarandy has played a leading role in discussions for the development of a crypto regulation in the country, working alongside associations,  regulators and legislators in what became the first regulatory framework for the virtual assets market and platforms. With a focus on representing users’ interests, Sarandy works to support an environment that encourages innovation to the benefit of society.

“I am honoured to take on this role in this transformation moment for crypto in Brazil, one of Binance’s most important growth frontiers. In Brazil, more than 25 million people chose crypto organically before any regulation proposal, making it one of the most exciting markets to work in. As a General Manager, I’ll make sure that Binance remains the most used and trusted platform in the country and fight to ensure that the rules will expand access and attraction to the next 25 million crypto adopters. We expect that the regulation will drive retail and institutional adoption demand in the country, paving the way for Brazil to take on a leading role for the industry globally,” Sarandy says.

For the past four years, Sarandy has acted as Chief of Regulatory and Legal Affairs for Brazil and El Salvador at Binance. He holds degrees in law from PUC-RJ, LL.M. in Capital Markets from FGV-RJ, and blockchain specialist from MIT – Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Prior to Binance, Sarandy dedicated more than 10 years of his career to the traditional financial market of Brazil, acting as a Partner and Chief of Legal at the financial institutions Genial Investments and Warren Investments.

“We are excited to have a fully dedicated general manager for Brazil. The country is not only highly relevant to the crypto industry but also offers immense potential and is currently experiencing a very dynamic period of regulatory debate. Sarandy brings the expertise needed to navigate this process and help Binance expand its business in Brazil,” says Guilherme Nazar, Head of Latin America at Binance. Sarandy will report directly to him.

Latin America is one of the fastest growing regions in crypto adoption, and home to three of the 20 top largest markets, according to the 2025 Chainlaysis Crypto Adoption Report, with Brazil as 5th largest market in the world and largest in the region. According to the report, crypto adoption in Latin America rose by 63% last year, behind only the Asia-Pacific Region, reflecting rising demand from both retail and institutional segments.

In the past year, Binance worked to enhance increased the usability of cryptocurrencies in the country, fulfilling the most important needs of the users. It was the first exchange to integrate the 170 million people national payment system Pix with Binance Pay, enabling real-time crypto-to-reais payments. It was also the first market for the relaunch of the Binance Mastercard Card in October, 2025, covering a full suite of payment products using crypto.

Binance’s global user count has surpassed 300 million, with $34 trillion of volume traded in the platform in 2025, an achievement that mirrors the accelerating rate of adoption of digital assets and blockchain globally. Committed to the sustainable development of the industry, the exchange has been increasing investments in security, compliance, and education to protect users’ funds and the ecosystem.

Bitcoin’s potential vulnerability to quantum attacks is putting the network’s future at a crossroads. The recent BIP-361 proposal split the community over freezing legacy addresses. 

A recently proposed solution to Bitcoin’s quantum vulnerability has split the community over the potential to freeze legacy wallets, including Satoshi Nakamoto’s stash. 

Among the most vocal proponents of BIP-361 is Jameson Lopp, a software engineer and cypherpunk. His main opponent is Adam Back, who, according to a New York Times research is the actual Satoshi Nakamoto. The proposal has created mixed reactions for protecting the value of BTC versus protecting its reputation as censorship-free. 

BIP361 is a complete non-starter for me, but I would still like to see an attempt by its supporters to put it on the Bitcoin network as either a soft fork or a hard fork. Not because I want to get a "fork dividend," but because we need to see how these things play out.

— Jimmy Song (송재준) (@jimmysong) April 16, 2026

The discussion on freezing non-quantum-resistant early wallets raised the issues of self-sovereignty, censorship, and the long-term future of BTC. 

Who wants to freeze addresses on Bitcoin? 

Supporters of BIP-361 have proposed a ‘post quantum migration and legacy signature sunset.’ The proposal went live on April 14, sparking a broader discussion of quantum resistance. Rough estimates suggest that around 6.7M BTC may be at risk of quantum attacks due to being held in early, less secure addresses.

BIP-361 is still in its draft phase, with no deadline for signaling support. Responsibility for quantum-proof holding will be personal, with each wallet holder required to upgrade. 

In the first stage, the proposal will freeze new transactions to quantum-vulnerable addresses, causing the network to shift to PQ address types. In phase B, all spending to vulnerable addresses will be blocked. The second stage may have a five-year grace period. 

In the future, the network may introduce a quantum-safe method for proving ownership and recovering lost BTC. 

The argument for freezing BTC is that hacked funds could be sold, undermining its price and general trust. Supporters of the proposal believe quantum hacking will occur and that the old BTC ethos of self-ownership, with no centralized censorship or freezing, is outdated. 

Can BTC survive quantum hacking? 

Achieving real quantum hacking may be more involved than expected. Satoshi Nakamoto’s addresses use the P2PK standard, meaning their exposed public keys leave them vulnerable to hacking. 

However, Satoshi’s stash is spread across over 22,000 addresses, and each one will have to be hacked before releasing the coins. 

The other argument against BIP-361 is that quantum computers are not yet easily available outside a research context, and it is highly improbable that they would be used for attacks. The approach may also be too expensive to perform, at least in the early stages of quantum computing. Currently, quantum algorithms are improving, lowering the requirements for a physical computer, but still far from a real attack.

The proposal underscores the need to change BTC for its long-term survival, while not undermining market value, reputation, and the proof of work to date. The migration to quantum-proof addresses raises the issue of what makes a ‘real’ BTC coin. 

Other suggestions include a hard fork to a quantum-proof network at a predetermined block, with a long grace period to claim coins. A similar solution was suggested by Satoshi Nakamoto in the early days of BTC. 

Some suggest leaving the BTC network as it is, with old wallets left as a bounty for the creators of viable quantum computers. Overall, freezes may protect the holdings of big whales and prevent a flash crash for BTC if someone is able to hack wallets. But in the short term, some see BIP-361 as breaking the underlying BTC ethos of avoiding censorship and asset freezes.

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The South Korean government has introduced a blockchain payment system aimed at stopping the misuse of public funds and modernizing its financial infrastructure. 

This is the second time the nation will be implementing its pilot technology after it was first used to pay subsidies for EV charging stations. 

Will government spending in South Korea change? 

South Korea has continued to prioritize blockchain technology, with the Ministry of Economy and Finance announcing a new pilot project just days after Cryptopolitan reported that the nominee for the central bank governor insisted on a bank-led digital currency model. 

The pilot project involves the government officially using blockchain-based “deposit tokens” to pay for government ministry business expenses. 

Currently, government officials use state-issued credit or debit cards (government purchase cards) to pay for business trip expenses or operational costs. However, the Ministry of Economy and Finance believes this system is outdated. 

The new pilot, approved under the 2026 regulatory sandbox program, will replace these plastic cards with digital tokens issued by commercial banks. 

Previously, the Ministry of Finance launched a pilot to pay subsidies for electric vehicle charging stations using deposit tokens. 

The new pilot will begin in the fourth quarter of this year, starting in the administrative capital, Sejong City. 

If successful, it will expand nationwide. 

Unlike credit cards, these deposit tokens are “programmable.” The government can code the tokens to work only during specific hours, such as 9 AM to 6 PM, or only in specific industries, such as transportation. This feature is aimed at stopping the misuse of public funds and reducing the need for audits, which are currently required for late-night or weekend spending. 

The system also removes financial intermediaries like Visa or Mastercard networks, eliminating the need for business owners to pay a commission fee (usually 1-3%) to the card company if a credit card is used for payment. 

The Ministry of Economy and Finance stated that this “settlement structure without intermediaries” will alleviate the fee burden on small business owners. However, the pilot is still in the early stages, and it remains to be seen if commercial banks will charge different fees for handling these tokens 

Does the pilot align with the Bank of Korea’s strategy?

Cryptopolitan previously reported that Shin Hyun-song, the nominee for the Governor of the Bank of Korea (BOK), in a written response to the National Assembly, stated that a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and commercial bank deposit tokens should be the “core” of the digital currency ecosystem. 

Shin Hyun-song acknowledged that stablecoins have a role in the economy, but he considers deposit tokens and government CBDCs a higher priority. He emphasized that trust in the currency is the most important factor, arguing that privately issued virtual assets have “fundamental limits” in replacing fiat money.

While the Bank of Korea remains cautious about crypto volatility, commercial banks like KB Financial Group (KRX: 105560) and Shinhan Financial Group (KRX: 055550) are racing to build the infrastructure for these tokens. KB Financial recently partnered with Circle to explore issuing a Korean Won stablecoin. 

Shinhan and Hana Financial are reportedly in talks with Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) to integrate stablecoin payments into Samsung Pay.

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Tether, the issuer of USDT, has moved 951 Bitcoins, valued at roughly $70 million, into its reserve wallet, injecting confidence in the crypto market. The transfer comes at a time when several long-term holders have been offloading BTC at an increased pace to ease financial strain from declining prices.

Data from Arkham Intelligence shows the transaction took place while Bitcoin was trading near $74,200. Following the transfer, Tether’s total Bitcoin holdings rose to about 97,204 BTC, valued at about $7.26 billion. As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $74,371.03, up 0.86% over the past 24 hours.

Tether’s decision to increase its BTC holdings appears to align with the company’s ongoing reserve strategy rather than signaling a sudden change in its investment approach. In Tether’s May 2023 statement, the USDT issuer vowed to invest up to 15% of its net operating profits into Bitcoin to diversify and strengthen its treasury reserves.

Ever since, Bitcoin has become a key component of Tether’s treasury, supporting the expansion of its USDT reserves, accounting for approximately 4.3% of the firm’s total reserve assets, according to Tether’s transparency report website.

Tether solidifies its position as a leader in the crypto ecosystem 

Bitcoin buyers have faced mounting pressure to sell their holdings amid recent volatility. This trend has also been observed with major players in the Bitcoin ecosystem, such as Riot Platforms (RIOT). The American Bitcoin mining and digital infrastructure company has been selling off its holdings, according to blockchain data from Lookonchain. 

Towards the beginning of this month, the firm had moved 500 BTC, worth about $34.13 million, as it utilizes Bitcoin holdings to fund its strategic shift towards AI and high-performance computing. Riot sold approximately BTC worth $200 million in the last two months of 2025. 

Nonetheless, Tether’s recent move has changed this situation, boosting confidence in the crypto ecosystem. At this point, it is worth noting that the latest 951 BTC transfer flowed from Bitfinex into Tether’s established Bitcoin reserve wallet, according to market reports.

Analysts noted that despite a lack of official confirmation in the company’s reports, the destination address corresponds to a wallet previously associated with Tether’s reserve holdings.

The USDT issuer’s reserve wallet has drawn the attention of several individuals due to its consistent quarterly Bitcoin inflows. Currently, the address ranks as the fifth-largest Bitcoin holder by wallet size in various reports, placing it among the top on-chain Bitcoin wallets.

Tether’s profit surge and institutional Bitcoin buys reinforce market confidence

Apart from its Bitcoin holdings, Tether’s USDT remains the largest stablecoin by market capitalization, with an estimated value of about $185 billion.

The company reported net profit of more than $10 billion for 2025, largely driven by a surge in USDT circulation and interest income from its substantial US Treasury holdings.

With $186.5 billion in total liabilities, Tether’s disclosures revealed up to $141 billion in US government debt exposure and only $6.3 billion in excess reserves. As market volatility persists, Tether’s latest move underscores a simple message that while others hesitate, major institutions are still positioning for Bitcoin’s long-term upside.

Just like Tether, digital asset company Strategy recently purchased 13,927 Bitcoins for approximately $1 billion. According to a filing dated April 13, the company funded the entire purchase by selling its STRC preferred stock.

With this acquisition in place, Strategy’s total holding is 780,897 BTC, valued at approximately $57.7 trillion. This secures Michael Saylor’s position as the leading corporate holder of Bitcoin.

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Crypto mogul Justin Sun is still on his public fight with World Liberty Financial (WLFI), calling the Trump-linked venture “tyrannical” after Cryptopolitan reported on a new proposal that would keep early investor tokens locked for four years.

“This proposal is packaged as ‘governance alignment signals’ and ‘long-term commitments,’ but it’s one of the most absurd governance scams I’ve ever seen. I’ll break it down point by point,” said Justin, who is the biggest investor in this project.

WLFI had posted a new proposal Wednesday on its governance forum, which would stop early investors from trading tokens for another two years, then place them under a further two-year vesting period.

The company said 80% of those holdings are already locked. If the measure passes in a vote set for one week later, early investors holding 17 billion tokens would not be able to fully trade them until 2030, one year after Trump is scheduled to leave office.

Justin Sun says WLFI vote punishes dissent

In a long post on X, Justin wrote that the proposal was being wrapped in phrases such as “governance alignment signals” and “long-term commitments,” but called it “one of the most absurd governance scams I’ve ever seen.”

Justin then laid out his case point by point. First, he said the proposal punishes anyone who votes no by ending up with tokens locked forever and no path to unlock them.

Justin also said he has personally been frozen out. He said he controls about 4% of the voting power, but his tokens have been frozen, and he has been shut out of the process. He said other holders with large voting power are in the same position.

“The outcome was decided before the vote even started,” Justin wrote. He said the team can decide who gets to vote and who does not.

He then turned to control of the protocol.

Justin said the WLFI smart contract is controlled by a 3/5 anonymous multisig, while an anonymous guardian EOA can blacklist addresses that hold WLFI and also ignore votes and act directly at the contract level.

Justin wrote, “The so-called governance proposals, on-chain votes, and community discussions are all just theater. This isn’t decentralized governance; it’s dictatorship dressed in DAO clothing.”

Justin attacks anonymous control as replies under his post turn against him

Justin also attacked the voting rules. He said people who want to vote must complete identity checks, sign electronically, and meet compliance standards. At the same time, he said the guardian and multisig signers with real power remain unnamed. “The ruled must dox themselves, while those with absolute power remain anonymous,” Justin wrote.

Justin also said the results “lack legitimacy, should not be binding, and should not be recognized,” calling on WLFI holders to oppose the measure publicly and preserve legal rights.

Naturally, the replies under Justin’s post show little sympathy. One user told him to stay silent and blamed Tron projects tied to him for investor losses, naming Winklink, Tron Bet, dead Tron memes, and a failed meme season. That person said they lost $100,000 on $SUNDOG.

Another said they had been burned by “Brother Sun” before and were standing with WLFI. One Chinese reply said it was satisfying to see Justin get hit back and called it karma. “So you’ve got your day coming too, huh! China’s karma theory is still something you gotta believe in. When you were the big fish gobbling up the little fish, didn’t you ever think there’d come a day when a whale swallows you whole?”

Another person said he bought Trump’s shitcoins to get close to Trump and still got scammed. A second Chinese reply said, “You forced yourself onto it, and now you’re playing the victim? Back when blockchain was taking off, how many of us regular folks in China did you fleece, huh? You? You’re not a scammer? So everyone else is? You’re a real comedian, Sun Yuchen.”

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OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was not the only tech leader on the radar of the man now accused of trying to kill him.

Before his arrest, Daniel Moreno-Gama, a 20-year-old college student from Texas, had already floated the idea of going after other major names in the industry, with Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, Alex Karp, and Jensen Huang making the list.

In an online chat months before the alleged attack, Daniel allegedly suggested “Luigi’ing some tech CEOs,” using a reference to Luigi Mangione, the man accused in the killing of the UnitedHealthcare CEO, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Prosecutors say Daniel traveled from the Houston area to San Francisco, threw a Molotov cocktail at Sam’s mansion, then went to the entrance of OpenAI’s headquarters and tried to set the place on fire. Authorities say he meant to burn the building down.

The man now faces both federal and state charges, including attempted murder and arson. He has not entered a plea. Diamond Ward, his public defender in the state case, said prosecutors went too far and called the case a “property crime, at best.”

Podcast interview captured Daniel Moreno-Gama turning from ChatGPT fan into anti-AI crusader

The online chat that raised fresh questions came out of contact with producers of “The Last Invention” podcast, who wanted Daniel for a series on AI.

In January, Daniel had sat for an interview and described how he went from being an internet kid who liked new tech to someone consumed by the threat he believed AI is to humanity.

That interview, released in edited form Wednesday by media startup Longview, also showed how Daniel’s views on OpenAI had changed over time. He said that during high school, he thought ChatGPT was “awesome” because he could “cheat on everything.”

Later, his tone hardened. Online, Daniel used the handle Butlerian Jihadist, a name pulled from Dune, the science fiction story about a war between humans and thinking machines. For the podcast, he used the name Discord Dan.

After the alleged attack, the podcast team dropped the shield of anonymity. Andy Mills, Longview’s editor in chief, said the team had first agreed not to name Daniel. That changed after the San Francisco case.

Andy said “his own actions and online statements have since established a clear link between his pseudonym and his real identity.” The Journal claims it independently confirmed Daniel’s identity.

Investigators say they also found a manifesto tied to Daniel in the OpenAI case. The document warned that AI would destroy humanity. It also contained a message aimed directly at Sam. It read, “If by some miracle you live, then I would take this as a sign from the divine to redeem yourself…”

Sam Altman’s own words on AI danger drew new scrutiny after the alleged attack

As the case unfolded, more attention fell on Sam’s long record of talking about AI risk. When he helped launch OpenAI in 2015, Sam Altman told CNN he wanted to help guide the technology instead of standing back and fearing what it could become.

He said, “I sleep better knowing I can have some influence now.” That line has resurfaced as the company and its chief executive face growing pressure over how powerful these systems have become.

Sam had also spoken before about preparing for disaster. In a 2016 profile in The New Yorker, he said, “I prep for survival,” and included “AI that attacks us” on his list of possible threats. He added, “I have guns, gold, potassium iodide, antibiotics, batteries, water, gas masks from the Israeli Defense Force, and a big patch of land in Big Sur I can fly to.”

And just last week, Sam said he is on a waitlist for a procedure meant to digitize his brain. The procedure would kill him. He sees that as a fair price for digital immortality.

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Circle co-founder and CEO, Jeremy Allaire, is seeing dollar signs when he thinks about a yuan-pegged stablecoin as global trade and finance integrate digital money. Allaire believes stablecoins are now among the easiest ways to export currency, and China is actively expanding the yuan’s role in global payment systems.

The Circle CEO spoke in an interview in Hong Kong today, highlighting several key points about the future of digital currency in Asia. He predicts that China could be launching a yuan-backed stablecoin within 3-5 years. Allaire argues that a yuan-pegged stablecoin would be more competitive globally than the current central bank digital currency (CBDC), the digital yuan.     

Meanwhile, the appetite for a yuan stablecoin has shifted from speculative interest to strategic implementation since early 2026. The expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and increased de-dollarization as global trade evolves position the yuan stablecoin as a non-negotiable tool for international trade. 

The first regulated offshore CNY stablecoin, AxCNH, has seen increased adoption across BRI countries. Notably, the AxCNH debuted in Kazakhstan to facilitate direct trade and evade Western sanctions. 

Corporate pressure continues to push for a yuan-pegged stablecoin

Corporate pressure continues to push for a yuan-backed stablecoin, as giants like Ant Group and JD.com advocate its effectiveness in optimizing cross-border payments. JD.com recently reported potential reductions in settlement times to under 10 seconds and in costs by up to 90%. Corporate holders also have an absolute right to redeem tokens at par value with the base fiat currency within one business day. 

Additionally, the HKMA granted Anchorpoint Financial, a joint venture involving Standard Chartered and HSBC, the first official stablecoin licenses on April 10, 2026. These stablecoin issuers are expected to roll out regulated tokens in the second half of this year. They will also provide a benchmark for corporate issuers who previously avoided unregulated offshore tokens due to counterparty risk. 

Circle CEO, Allaire, also points out that there is a “tremendous opportunity” for an offshore yuan stablecoin to enhance the competitiveness and globalization of the Chinese currency. Circle views an offshore RMB stablecoin as an opportunity to capture trade flows in regions seeking alternatives to the U.S. dollar system.

Hong Kong’s 2026 licensing framework protects yuan stablecoin issuers

The Hong Kong 2026 licensing framework specifically protects corporate reserves for CNY stablecoin issuers. These regulated tokens are being integrated directly into the city’s treasury and Web3 infrastructure following Hong Kong licensing breakthrough.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) began issuing official licenses in April 2026, even though the Stablecoin Ordinance was enacted in August 2025.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong and Shanghai are emerging as offshore sandboxes for these digital currency ambitions, actively providing regulated frameworks that legitimize fiat-backed stablecoin issuers for global trade.

Recent sanctions highlight the vulnerability of relying solely on the USD-dominated SWIFT system, leading market participants to pursue the yuan stablecoin as a strategic “parallel” alternative for international payment channels. The regulated offshore CNY-backed stablecoin, AxCNH, specifically facilitates trade across more than 150 BRI countries.

There is also a strong likelihood that trade corridors, such as the Middle East-to-Asia, Singapore-to-Malaysia, and Hong Kong-to-China, will shift to regional stablecoins to optimize working capital cycles through stablecoin payments.

Direct yuan stablecoin settlements can eliminate the double-conversion fees incurred when the yuan is routed through USD in traditional cross-border payments.

Emerging markets in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia are increasingly turning their focus to yuan stablecoins. These tokens act as a tool to bypass the USD, especially in countries where U.S. dollar liquidity is limited.

The CNY is now viewed as a global safe-haven asset, further boosting the appeal of holding it in a stablecoin format for long-term planning.

On the other hand, media reports describe the yuan’s pivot toward stablecoins as a “watershed moment” for a mass diversification of the global payments landscape. The market expects a broader rollout of regulated stablecoins by the second half of this year as institutions complete pilot testing.

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BTC whales were extremely active in the past 30 days, adding 270,000 BTC to reserves. According to Bitfinex, this is the biggest whale buying spree since at least 2013. 

BTC may be undergoing silent whale accumulation, with 270,000 BTC added to whale wallets according to Bitfinex. Spot buying has remained strong in the past week, as whale accumulation boosted the recent rally. 

The trend of whale-sized BTC orders is still going strong, switching from retail orders at the end of 2025. In the past quarter, whales dominated the spot market and continued the strategic accumulation as BTC traded in a tight range. 

BTC whale orders were the main driver of the spot market in the past month. | Source: Cryptoquant

Accumulation patterns show retail orders often happen during downward price moves, while whale accumulation waits for periods of sideways trading and relative stability. The recent shift to spot orders happens independently of the still weak futures markets. 

As a result of the buying, BTC exchange reserves fell to just 2.68M, a multi-year low. Recently, whole-coin BTC transfers to Binance remained even more rare. In the past 24 hours, 6,310 BTC were withdrawn from Binance, and over 13K BTC for the past 30 days. In the past week, the pace of BTC leaving exchanges accelerated near a historical peak, further revealing the accumulation trend.

BTC whales and holders are facing diminishing pressure to sell

While the BTC market was slower, there was no true capitulation in the past few months. Currently, holders of wallets up to seven years old are, on average, in the green. BTC traded above $75,000 with a continued recovery.

At the same time, the average realized price reached $72,300, translating into lower price pressure. Around 8.75M BTC in various wallets is held at a loss, but the metric is improving. The current BTC cycle also comes with fewer signs of capitulation, as holders seek other sources of liquidity and hold fast to any coins acquired. 

The current spot buying cycle coincides with a new wave of buying for Strategy, this time supported by STRC digital credit. Strategy has managed to absorb some of the available selling. 

As a result of recent whale buying, the BTC sell wall rose to $77,980, with smaller sell walls at $75,500 and $76,000, signaling robust demand. 

BTC holders await a directional move

Despite the ongoing price weakness, BTC holders were in no hurry to capitulate. BTC is more than 40% down from its peak valuation, but it has shown its ability to react to positive market news. 

The recent BTC exchange flows show whales slowed down their deposits in March and switched to withdrawals during the recent market recovery.

Currently, there is still no panic buying or FOMO, but an ongoing strategic accumulation. Whale and shark wallets remain the most influential factors for BTC, and are closely watched for signs of BTC switching to a more bullish sentiment.

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China’s economy picked up speed in the first three months of this year, powered by strong sales of machinery and electronics to other countries. But government officials are warning about trouble ahead.

The National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday the economy grew 5.0% during the first quarter compared to last year. That beat what analysts expected and was better than the 4.5% growth in the last quarter of last year.

Officials called it a “solid start” but pointed to problems building up at home and abroad.

“External conditions have become more complex and volatile, while structural imbalances at home, marked by strong supply and weak demand, remain pronounced,” Mao Shengyong, deputy commissioner at the NBS, told reporters Thursday.

China was the first major economy to release numbers for the quarter after the war between the United States and Israel against Iran started at the end of February. The fighting has pushed up energy prices around the world.

Exports looked really strong early in the year. Sales to other countries jumped 21.8% in January and February combined. But that fell hard in March to just 2.5% growth as the war messed up shipping routes and made transport more expensive.

For the whole quarter, exports still grew 14.7%, better than the 5.5% in the same period of 2025.

“The upshot is that while the Chinese economy is holding up well, it is becoming ever more dependent on external demand. The Iran War is likely to add to this trend, even if it has a limited impact on headline growth,” Zichun Huang, a China Economist at financial advisory Capital Economics, wrote Thursday.

China’s bet on high-tech manufacturing and green energy is working

Electric vehicle exports jumped 78% from last year. Lithium battery sales went up 50%, and wind turbine equipment rose 45%, customs officials said.

“Despite the energy price shock, exports should stay solid in the coming quarters, thanks to strong demand for semiconductors and green technologies,” Huang said earlier this week.

But people aren’t spending much at home. Retail sales grew just 1.7% in March compared to last year, down from 2.8% in the first two months. Factory output rose 5.7%, slower than before but still better than expected.

“China’s retail sales momentum is fading as subsidy impacts wane and auto demand softens,” said Ying Zhang, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit. She was talking about a program Beijing started in 2024 to get people to buy new appliances and cars.

“The absence of structural reforms so far means consumption will remain a weak growth driver throughout 2026,” Zhang said.

Factory prices went up for the first time in more than three years. The producer price index climbed 0.5% in March compared to last year. That ended a slide that had been going on since September 2022. But analysts say rising costs from expensive oil could hurt households that are already spending less.

Things with Washington are getting tense

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday that America is ready to put secondary sanctions on Chinese banks if they’re handling Iranian money.

“Iran used to be the largest state sponsor of terrorism. China was purchasing more than 90 per cent of their oil, which is about 8 per cent of China’s energy needs,” Bessent said at a press briefing.

Two Chinese banks already got warning letters from the Treasury Department. “We told them that if we can prove that there is Iranian money flowing through your accounts, then we are willing to put on secondary sanctions,” Bessent said. He didn’t name the banks.

Numbers from the US Treasury Department show China cut its holdings of American government debt to $693.3 billion in February, down from $694.4 billion in January. The International Monetary Fund thinks China’s economy will grow 4.4% this year.

Last year, China’s trade surplus hit a record 1.2 trillion. That shows how much the economy depends on exports at a time when things are getting more uncertain around the world.

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The United States will not be renewing its expiring sanctions waivers for Iranian and Russian oil, the Trump administration has made it clear.

Washington is also threatening to punish countries that continue to buy oil from the Islamic Republic and hoping that China will halt purchases, too.

U.S. won’t renew waivers for Iranian and Russian oil

The United States will not be extending the waivers on sanctions for oil originating from Iran and Russia, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced. Speaking to media on Wednesday, he stated:

“We will not be renewing the general license on Russian oil, and we will not be renewing the general license on Iranian oil.”

“That was oil that was on the water prior to March 11. So all that ⁠has been used,” Bessent noted during a press briefing at the White House.

The decision signals an end to efforts by the Trump administration to free up ⁠oil supplies amid soaring energy prices, Reuters remarked in a report quoting Bessent.

Oil prices spiked after the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran at the end of February, exceeding $100 per barrel of the benchmark Brent crude.

They are now below that threshold, amid statements indicating talks to end the conflict will continue despite failing to produce an agreement last weekend.

The waivers Bessent was referring to concerned oil that was already in transit and could quickly reach global markets to boost supply and ease pressure on prices.

The U.S. first allowed India to buy Russian oil and petroleum products stranded at sea in early March. Then it permitted other countries to do the same with oil already loaded on tankers as of March 12.

The broader waiver was initially valid until April 11. On March 19, the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a new license, adding some restrictions, which expires on April 19.

While Bessent insisted the “narrowly tailored, short-term measure” will not significantly benefit Moscow, Russia’s revenues from oil exports have been growing.

The 30-day Iranian waiver, which was published on March 20 and is also set to expire at the end of this week, helped release about 140 million barrels of oil, according to his estimates.

Bessent vows to sanction buyers of Iranian oil

The U.S. is now also threatening to sanction those who buy oil from Iran and expressing confidence that China will suspend purchases. Scott Bessent revealed:

“We have told countries that if you are buying Iranian oil, that if Iranian money is sitting in your banks, we are now willing to apply secondary sanctions.”

The warning comes as the United States is enforcing a maritime blockade on the Islamic Republic, which was imposed at the start of the week, the seventh since the beginning of the war.

“We believe [that with] this blockade … there will be a pause of Chinese buying,” Bessent stated. The People’s Republic used to purchase over 80% of the oil shipped by Iran.

The U.S. Treasury has already informed two Chinese banks about the consequences of processing Iranian money flows.

The department has also contacted Hong Kong, the UAE ⁠and Oman to identify financial institutions allowing Iranian activities.

Besides the current blockade, the U.S. sanctioned more than two dozen individuals, companies and vessels involved in the transportation of Iranian oil.

The measures are part of American pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program and support for militant groups across the region.

The conflict in the Middle East is already affecting the global economy. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) recently warned that if the war drags on, it will cut growth buy 0.4% and bump inflation by 1.5% in the countries where it’s active.

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Allbirds, Inc. (Nasdaq: BIRD) is one of the latest stocks to rally after announcing an AI fleet of GPUs. The company is also a test of the AI pivot narrative and its sustainability. 

Allbirds, Inc. (Nasdaq: BIRD) is trading at a one-month high after a near-vertical rally. The stock spiked to $21.95 in the past week, later retreating to $16.99. 

Allbirds, Inc. (Nasdaq: BIRD) rallied after years of stagnant prices after announcing a pivot to AI, while divesting its shoe brand and related assets to the American Exchange Group. | Source: Google Finance

All it took for Allbirds to rally after three years of stagnant trading was the announcement of an AI facility. The company was immediately in the spotlight, in a narrative arc similar to Rivian (Nasdaq: RIVN). Yet the pivot for Allbirds is even more dramatic, given it started out as a sustainable shoe company, catering to the millennial aesthetic and dedicated to natural materials. 

Now, Allbirds has joined the list of AI data center and GPU fleet entities, competing with the recent pivot of major Bitcoin mining companies. The company has agreed to sell all its shoe brands and assets to American Exchange Group, a private company. 

Is the Allbirds rally sustainable?

The Allbirds rally is only a few days old, but BIRD may be gaining meme status. Despite the brand’s influence, the BIRD stocks will have to fight for a second chance after their 2021 IPO at $4B valuation. 

The company achieved quarterly revenues of over $30M on average, with net losses of $15M to $20M over the past three reported quarters. Allbirds was still moving within expectations but lacked the initial hype as a cult brand. 

The AI announcement was the factor that boosted BIRD trading by 875 times its usual daily volumes. The company announced a $50M investment in GPUs, and the actual facility is expected to launch later this year. 

Allbirds has set out a bid to become a long-term AI company, complete with a rebranding to NewBird AI. The $50M investment comes from a recently negotiated financing facility, which will be finalized in Q2. 

As the company has shown commitment to growing its AI compute influence, BIRD may benefit from the growing activity and general interest. In the short term, however, BIRD has behaved as a meme stock. 

Allbirds sparks talk of AI peak 

Until recently, the AI pivot narrative was the main offramp for crypto mining companies. Giants like Riot Platforms and Mara Holdings used their available electricity contracts and experience with mining farms to upgrade to AI compute centers. 

The shift from a shoe company to AI compute provider is seen as an attempt to revive a company’s relevance and stock price. 

Currently, BIRD is also facing significant short open interest, at over 18% of the float and less than half a day of supply to cover. BIRD may extend its rally on a short squeeze, but may still face headwinds as the AI narrative is not enough to support the stock, and the actual data center construction is months away. 

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CryptoQuant says Bitcoin’s recent price jump may be a bull trap as big holders send more coins to exchanges, a move that often shows selling pressure is rising.

According to a report by CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, whale activity has risen, and inflows into exchanges have increased, so the BTC rally risks profit-taking.

Bitcoin whales move coins to exchanges as selling rises

According to data from CryptoQuant, many whales are moving money to exchanges to capitalize on the BTC rally and lock in profits. In fact, hourly Bitcoin inflows recently reached about 11,000 BTC, the highest hourly reading seen since late December 2025. 

However, sustaining the rally will become more difficult as more investors continue to move money into exchanges just as the price pushes higher, building selling pressure.

The numbers suggest that whales are behind much of the recent activity because the average Bitcoin deposit sent to exchanges rose to 2.25 BTC, an average that a few small traders sending tiny amounts of Bitcoin can’t achieve. 

The largest transfers came through Binance, where individuals deposited more than 1,000 BTC, which analysts say can affect market direction when many of them move simultaneously.

CryptoQuant also reported that large deposits accounted for 40% of total inflows to exchanges, up from 10% a few days ago. Such an increase has occurred before, and it serves as a warning that BTC prices are about to drop because sellers are stronger than buyers. 

Bitcoin dropped from $100,000 to $60,000 in January 2026 after average BTC deposits into exchanges rose to almost 2 BTC, highlighting the kind of behavior that precedes price declines. March 2026 recorded a similar decline after hourly inflows on exchanges increased to 9,000 BTC, with large deposits accounting for 63% of them.

Today’s inflows of 11,000 BTC are much higher than the 9,000 BTC level in March, and while they do not guarantee a price drop, they still signal a possible pullback ahead and add to the high selling pressure.

Bitcoin hits key resistance as profit-taking grows

Bitcoin is now approaching the traders’ onchain realized price near $76,800, a resistance level during bear markets. When BTC reaches that zone, growth can slow sharply because it’s a natural selling point for many traders who want to recover their money rather than risk another possible drop.

January 2026 saw the bear market rally cap at that point, and analysts say the same pattern could repeat if more sellers build pressure near this level.

According to CryptoQuant, the next major support level sits near $67,600 if BTC fails to break above the $76,800 resistance, which is highly likely given the increased selling pressure from anxious traders. 

Meanwhile, onchain data shows that profit-taking is rising quickly, with investors already locking in about $1.14 billion in gains. CryptoQuant says this amount isn’t the peak of what profit-taking can bring in, because daily realized profits are still averaging around $500 million, even though they usually move above $1 billion per day in bear markets.

The South Korea-based institutional-grade analytics platform says the increased selling pressure could stop the breakout and trigger a reversal if more holders decide to sell their tokens once Bitcoin pushes through the $76,800 resistance zone.

CryptoQuant says there’s a risk that new buyers will end up stuck with losses if Bitcoin briefly breaks the resistance zone, only to quickly fall back. The risk is even greater when you consider that short traders who bet against BTC were forced out of their positions as the token rose above $70,000.

At the same time, many derivatives traders remain positive about Bitcoin’s rise, and new long positions have even been opened above $73,000. Traders are betting on higher prices, as Bitcoin’s funding rates also flipped from strongly negative to positive.

Furthermore, futures traders still expect the price to rise further despite the warning signs, as the taker buy/sell volume ratio remains above 1. 

However, this creates a conflict because while futures traders are going all in on Bitcoin, whales are using the same rally to exit positions. 

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Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang is using the Anthropic Mythos’ viral moment to make a bigger point about China, saying the Trump administration should open a real AI channel with Beijing instead of acting like the two sides can avoid each other.

Jensen made his case during a Wednesday interview on the Dwarkesh Podcast. For Nvidia, it’s been a pretty awkward year to say the least. For all his claims of “close friendship” with Donald Trump, Jensen’s company is still caught between Washington’s chip policy and the fact that China remains too large, too deep, and too active in AI to ignore.

Jensen said, “The amount of capacity and the type of compute Mythos was trained on is abundantly available in China. So you just have to first realize that chips exist in China.”

Jensen added that China manufactures about 60% of the world’s mainstream chips.

Jensen tells Washington to talk with China because the talent, chips, and power are already there

Jensen said the United States wants to win and said China is an adversary, but he also said, “Victimizing them, turning them into an enemy, likely isn’t the best answer.”

For Jensen, it is “simply essential” for American AI researchers and Chinese AI researchers to be talking, and he said both sides should try to agree on what AI should not be used for.

He also pushed back on the idea that AI finding software flaws is itself some shock, because to him, that is what AI is supposed to do.

Jensen then turned to the security side of the industry and said not enough attention is being paid to the wider market forming around AI cybersecurity, AI security, AI privacy, and AI safety. Jensen said there is a growing startup ecosystem trying to build a world where one strong AI agent is watched by thousands of other AI agents that keep it safe and secure.

Jensen warns the United States not to split open AI from the American tech stack

Jensen said the future will not be a world where one AI system runs loose with nobody watching it, because “that would be insane.”

“We know very well that this ecosystem needs to thrive. It turns out this ecosystem needs open source. This ecosystem needs open models. They need open stacks so that all of these AI researchers and all these great computer scientists can go build AI systems that are as formidable and can keep AI safe. So one of the things that we need to make sure that we do is we keep the open source ecosystem vibrant,” said Jensen.

Jensen then linked that point to US infrastructure limits, saying he understands that Trump wants as much computing capacity as possible, but energy is still a constraint. He said people are working on that problem and that the country cannot afford to let power become a bottleneck.

At the same time, he said the United States should want AI developers around the world building on the American tech stack and sending open advances back into the American system.

What he said Washington should avoid is a split where the open source world runs on a foreign stack while the US stack becomes the home of a closed system. He said that would be “extremely foolish” and “a horrible outcome for the United States.”

Just last week, US lawmakers proposed a bill that would tighten China’s access to advanced chipmaking equipment by pushing allies such as the Netherlands and Japan to match US export controls within 150 days.

Before that, in November last year, the United States launched the Genesis Mission, a national AI effort led by the Department of Energy and 17 national labs that plans to build an integrated AI platform using federal scientific data sets to train scientific foundation models, create AI agents, test new hypotheses, automate research workflows, and speed up scientific breakthroughs.

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Donald Trump’s Pentagon is pressing American industry to do more than build cars, engines, and parts, and sort of abandon their mission of electric vehicles temporarily.

Under Trump, defense officials have allegedly started talking to major manufacturers about making weapons and military supplies instead.

Those talks reached the top ranks of corporate America. Senior defense officials held discussions with General Motors (GM) CEO Mary Barra and Ford CEO Jim Farley, along with other industry leaders.

The talks were described by the Wall Street Journal as early and broad. Defense officials asked whether American manufacturers could use workers, factory space, and existing production systems to help make munitions and other equipment.

GE Aerospace and vehicle maker Oshkosh were also part of the discussions. A Pentagon official allegedly said the department “is committed to rapidly expanding the defense industrial base by leveraging all available commercial solutions and technologies to ensure our warfighters maintain a decisive advantage.”

Defense officials ask Detroit and other manufacturers to help refill weapons stocks

The request comes at a rough time for the U.S. EV market. Electric vehicles made up 5.9% of U.S. auto sales in the first quarter of 2026. That was down from 7.6% in the first quarter of 2025 and 7.2% in the first quarter of 2024. The high point came in the third quarter of 2025, when EVs reached 10.6% of the market.

Back in the first quarter of 2025, the market hit record levels overall. Even so, Tesla’s own first-quarter peak came earlier, in the first quarter of 2023, not in 2025.

One thing though, the market today remains above first-quarter levels from 2022, and it is much stronger than it was in 2021. But that does not change the recent slowdown. The leading models are still the Tesla Model Y and Tesla Model 3. The surprise in third place is the Toyota bZ, formerly called the bZ4X.

After that come the Hyundai IONIQ 5 and the Chevrolet Equinox EV. Then the field falls away sharply. That softer demand gives the Pentagon another reason to test whether idle or underused manufacturing capacity can be redirected toward defense work.

Jim Farley backs Chinese partnerships while urging tighter rules at home

The pressure on automakers also lands in the middle of a messy debate over China. Just days after saying Chinese carmakers should be kept out of the United States, Jim Farley said Ford still wants deeper ties with Chinese automakers. On Fox News Monday, Farley said, “We should keep them out of our country.”

By Wednesday, while speaking to reporters about a reorganization at Ford, he softened that line. He said Chinese companies are changing the industry with cheaper, more advanced vehicles and that Ford benefits from working with them.

Farley said, “We value our Chinese partners, they help us stay sharp and compete in many markets around the world.” He added, “We will continue to expand these partnerships.” He also said he had “no news” to announce. Still, the links are there.

Ford has held discussions with Zhejiang Geely Holding Group about sharing manufacturing capacity in Europe. It has also talked with BYD about supplying batteries for gas-electric hybrid vehicles. In China, Ford already works with Chongqing Changan Automobile and Jiangling Motors.

Earlier this year, Farley also told Trump administration officials that if Chinese automakers want to build cars in America, they should do it through joint ventures controlled by U.S. automakers, matching the model China forced on Western car companies decades ago.

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Arthur Hayes says the crypto crowd is getting hit while still fighting over the reason for the drop. In his latest essay, Arthur warns that: “I don’t know anything about war fighting,” and makes clear he has no inside line into what global leaders may do next.

What he does say he has is public data, basic math, propaganda AI agents, and a portfolio to protect.

He says there are really four possible outcomes, but one is useless for investors. Nuclear destruction is not something he thinks anyone can trade around, so he throws it out. That leaves three main paths, plus one middle case tied to a US blockade. Arthur says he is trying to find a portfolio setup that can beat hydrocarbons, food, and fuel prices in the best case, and in the worst case still do better than most major assets.

Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin comeback is waiting for Fed liquidity injection

In the first case, Arthur says the war stops and things go back to what they were before, but that still would not solve the deeper problem because the bigger threat is AI replacing white-collar workers across the US economy.

“The American economy is the most exposed because its GDP is ~70% driven by consumer spending. Consumers finance their materialism using bank credit, and these loans become assets on banks’ balance sheets,” says Arthur.

Arthur says the AI-led bust could be as serious as the 2008 subprime mess. He writes that rising consumer delinquencies are already showing up before the real layoff wave has even started.

He also gives a story from a crypto gaming founder who tested the latest Claude model during Christmas 2025, built usable code fast, then brought top engineers together to rethink the company.

After that, the firm built an agent workflow that coded all day and all night, including code review. He says that led the company to plan cuts to 50% of staff. He adds that top engineers may get 10x to 100x more productive, while average workers get pushed out. He says the median annual unemployment payout in US states is about $28,000, far below the $85,000 to $90,000 earned by many knowledge workers.

That gap, according to Arthur, leads straight to missed debt payments. Even then, Arthur says Bitcoin may only get a limited bounce, maybe to $80,000 or $90,000, until the Fed steps in with real liquidity.

Arthur tracks yuan tolls, oil stress, and money printing through Bitcoin, gold, and bonds

In the second case, Arthur says Iran keeps control over the Strait of Hormuz and lets friendly ships pass after paying a $2 million toll in yuan, crypto, sanctioned dollars, or other deals.

He says that would hit the petrodollar hard. Since most big economies run trade deficits with China, they would need to sell US Treasuries or tech stocks, buy physical gold, then swap that gold for yuan in Shanghai or Hong Kong. He notes only Brazil and Russia among the ten biggest economies run trade surpluses with China.

Arthur pointed out that foreign securities holdings at the Fed dropped $63 billion after the war started, while non-monetary gold became the biggest US export in four of the last five months, up 342% from a year earlier. He also says Swiss refineries are recasting US gold for China and that rising CIPS volumes matter because Iran cannot use SWIFT. As Arthur puts it:

“The yuan and gold will most likely become the two primary currencies of sovereign trade. If holding dollars cannot guarantee pirates won’t tank your stuff, why hold them at all?”

In the third case, the US military reopens the strait by force. Arthur says that could briefly restore faith in the dollar, but it could also destroy Iran, wreck Gulf energy output, and force central banks to print into a commodity spike. He writes, “The spice definitely won’t flow.” He says some countries would face hyperinflation, while America and Russia would be the only big swing producers left.

For Bitcoin, Arthur says, “If the blockade ultimately ends via a punitive bombing campaign of Iran followed by an Iranian destruction of all Persian Gulf energy production, this could lead to the destruction of the Iranian state. The rally in Bitcoin, inspired by money printing, might be short-lived because the destruction of the Iranian state materially raises the prospect of WW3.”

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Authorities in Florida and Massachusetts have successfully recovered $5.4 million in cryptocurrency from scammers. James Uthmeier, Florida Attorney General, said his office called the successful recovery a historic and monumental operation against crypto scams.

The fraud cases involved a romance-turned crypto investment scam affecting victims in Florida and Massachusetts. According to the attorney general’s office, victims were identified in six Florida counties. One Marion County victim lost more than $450,000.

The recovery was led by the Office of Statewide Prosecution’s Cyber Fraud Enforcement Unit, or CFEU, working with the Marion County Sheriff’s Office.

Crypto scammers often target senior citizens

Cyber fraud often targets Florida seniors. Uthmeier said his office made it a priority to recover as much money as possible and return it to victims. He said the partnership with the Marion County Sheriff’s Office was record-breaking and said the unit is setting the standard for cryptocurrency recovery.

Marion County Sheriff Billy Woods said it angers him that people prey on citizens, especially senior citizens. He said that cyber scammers and hackers belong in jail. The Marion County Sheriff’s Office helped the attorney general’s office complete the largest recovery, totaling $6.5 million.

The office said $700,000 of the recovered cryptocurrency was returned to Florida victims, and $1.3 million was returned to victims in Massachusetts. The remaining recovered funds would be used to continue powering the Cyber Fraud Enforcement Unit’s fight against crypto scams.

In the first quarter of 2026 alone, CFEU recovered $3.3 million, which the office said represented 45% of its all-time recoveries. Since the unit was created 2.5 years ago, it has recovered $7.2 million in total. The office added that another $12.6 million in frozen crypto assets is still moving through litigation.

In Massachusetts, Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell said her office has received hundreds of crypto-related complaints. She wrote, “I see the effects of these scams on a near-daily basis. My office receives hundreds of complaints related to cryptocurrency.”

Campbell said her office has deactivated more than 60 scam websites, filed more than 30 lawsuits, and recovered more than $6 million for victims. She added that she’s working with other officials to educate people about crypto scams and to help them catch red flags early.

She also cited an enforcement action earlier this year against Bitcoin Depot. The crypto kiosk operator allegedly knew millions in fraudulent transactions were funneled through its machines and should have done more to protect consumers.

Ironically, Bitcoin Depot was described as the victim of a cyberattack that affected its wallet addresses. The company lost 50.9 bitcoins worth about $3.6 million, according to an 8k report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Bitcoin Depot stated that the unauthorized access was discovered on March 23, but blockchain investigator ZachXBT said the theft had started three days earlier on March 20. Bitcoin Depot was late in discovering the breach.

ZachXBT added that the theft may have totaled 54 bitcoins, or about $3.9 million, and spanned across 19 suspicious wallet addresses. “I traced it out and the suspicious outflows actually occurred on March 20 and the funds were transferred to Kucoin deposit addresses,” said the crypto sleuth in an X post.

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Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (who is also the chair of the Financial Stability Board) said on Wednesday at an event hosted by the Institute of International Finance that the world is still moving too slowly on one shared set of rules for crypto industry’s stablecoins.

He said work on international standards for stablecoins has lost speed over the past year, even as these tokens keep getting deeper into the global financial system.

Andrew also tied the debate to a basic issue, saying stablecoins only work if people trust they can redeem them at full value every time. That is the point behind what he called assured value. Andrew said:

“We do have to have international standards to it to underpin assured value. I don’t think we can have a situation where we’ve got different rules of engagement in different countries for that.”

Andrew Bailey pushes countries to align stablecoins rules before gaps widen

Andrew’s warning comes as Britain and America’s Trump administration are both trying to build their individual local frameworks.

The United States has already taken another step on its own side. The Department of the Treasury published a long-awaited notice of proposed rulemaking, or NPRM, that would force stablecoin issuers to meet tough sanctions compliance standards under the GENIUS Act.

On April 8, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, known as FinCEN, and the Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC, jointly released the proposal. It set out requirements for permitted payment stablecoin issuers, also called PPSIs, focused on stopping illicit finance.

The proposal says PPSIs will need to follow the same financial crime compliance duties that already apply to other US financial institutions once the GENIUS Act regime becomes fully active in January 2027.

Those duties include building AML/CFT and sanctions compliance programs with senior management oversight, carrying out financial crime risk assessments, using risk-based policies for customer due diligence and related checks, naming a responsible AML/CFT officer, running staff training, and making sure AML controls go through independent auditing and testing.

For US officials, stablecoins are not getting a lighter lane.

South Korea fights over stablecoins as Circle courts lawmakers and banks

Meanwhile, over in South Korea, lawmakers and central bank officials are having this huge beef over whether tech companies should be allowed to also issue stablecoins, or just banks.

That battle pulled in Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire this week. Speaking to the press in Seoul, Jeremy said Circle has no plan to launch a won-pegged digital token right now, but the company is watching the debate in the National Assembly closely. He said:

“If a legal pathway is established for global companies like Circle to legally enter and operate, just as we have done in Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and Europe, we are very willing to obtain a license and establish a South Korean branch.”

Jeremy has also been meeting South Korean banking chiefs and some of the country’s biggest crypto firms. He has been offering Circle’s technical support to local companies that may want to issue stablecoins once regulators allow it.

His remarks landed while South Korean politicians are stuck in a fight that looks similar to the one in Washington over the Clarity Act, the crypto market bill that has sat gridlocked on Capitol Hill for months.

Failing to finish the new stablecoins regulatory would also be a serious blow for President Lee Jae-myung, who promised us won-pegged stablecoins during last year’s campaign and said he will pass legislation if he won power.

Since his June election victory, Lee and his administration have run into resistance from the banking sector and the Bank of Korea.

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