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🧧🎁🌹🧧🎁🌹 Trade and economic talks and AI strategy meetings between China and the U.S. held around September 20 (for example, a meeting in New York between U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng). Such macro-level contests between major powers and policy communication typically have the following dimensions of indirect and potential impact on the cryptocurrency market (the coin圈): 1. Linkage between macro liquidity and risk appetite The “barometer” of market sentiment: Progress on issues such as China–U.S. economic and trade relations and tariffs, as well as supply-chain developments, directly affects global capital markets. If the talks send a calming signal (e.g., extending the trade truce period and stabilizing the supply chain), they often boost the overall preference for global risk assets. As high-beta assets, cryptocurrencies often benefit from this positive macro sentiment. FX rates and capital flows: The talks can influence the near-term direction of the RMB exchange rate and the U.S. dollar index. Macro stability helps maintain normal global liquidity and reduces panic selling triggered by extremely heightened geopolitical tensions. 2. Policy spillover in the intersection of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Web3 AI regulation and coordination with foundational technology: One of the core topics of the mid-September China–U.S. talks is risk control and the establishment of guardrails for frontier AI models and technologies. Since “AI + Web3” (decentralized compute power, AI agent trading, and DeFi intelligent risk models) is closely integrated, any shifts in policy outlook regarding cross-border AI flows or the regulation of open-source versus closed-source models may cause fluctuations in sentiment and compliance expectations for AI-related tokens and decentralized compute infrastructure segments in the crypto market. 3. Spillover effects of global compliance and regulatory expectations High-level dialogues between major powers on key technologies, supply chains, and financial security often accelerate the evolution of their respective domestic digital asset and compliance frameworks. Against the backdrop of increasingly stringent global regulation, macro-level communication can help reduce chaotic disruptions to the global crypto market caused by extreme regulatory actions—but it also means that standards such as compliance requirements and anti–money laundering (AML) will continue to be transmitted to the blockchain industry. Follow me—answer 1 and take the $SOL红包! 🧧🎁🌹🧧🎁🌹
August core CPI came in at +0.3% MoM and markets have now priced in nearly 90% chance of a 25 bp hike this week. I personally expect the Fed to deliver that hike. Inflation is still sticky enough that they can’t afford to stay on hold but I don’t see this as the start of a long aggressive hiking cycle. More like a one-and-done or maybe two moves total to keep credibility. If the hike lands here’s how I see the reaction: BTC – short-term volatility and possible dip, but medium-term I stay bullish. Higher rates usually hurt risk assets initially yet Bitcoin has already priced in a lot of the hawkishness. Once the dust settles liquidity flows and ETF demand should support it again. Tech stocks – clearly bearish in the short run. Higher discount rates hit growth names hard. Nasdaq will feel the pressure. Gold – mixed to mildly bullish. Rate hikes are dollar-positive but any risk-off move or geopolitical noise can still push gold higher. My own plan: I’m holding my long-term BTC bag and adding on any sharp dips. No fresh long on tech until we see the reaction. Gold I keep as a small hedge. What do you guys think — one-and-done or the start of something bigger? Drop your view and share your trades. #FedRateWatch
#FedRateWatch – FOMC September: What’s the Fed’s Next Move? August core CPI came in at +0.3% month-over-month, and the market is now pricing almost a 90% chance of a 25 bp rate hike this week. In my view, the Fed will deliver that hike. Inflation is still sticky in services and shelter, and the labour market, while cooling, is not weak enough for the Fed to pause.
I don’t see this as the start of a long hiking cycle. One more 25 bp move looks more like a “final tightening” to show the Fed is still serious, rather than the beginning of a multi-meeting path higher. After this, the bar for further hikes will be very high unless inflation re-accelerates sharply. If the 25 bp hike lands:
BTC: Short-term mildly bearish (liquidity squeeze + risk-off sentiment), but the medium-term outlook remains constructive as long as we don’t get a series of hikes. I expect a quick dip-and-recover pattern.
Tech stocks: More sensitive to higher rates. Growth names could see pressure, especially high-multiple stocks.
Gold: Usually benefits from rate-hike uncertainty and any sign of economic slowdown, so I lean mildly bullish on gold in the days after the decision.
My plan: I’m keeping my core BTC position intact and will look to add on any sharp post-FOMC dip. For gold I’m already holding a small position and may scale in if we see a clean break higher. Tech stocks I’m staying light – no aggressive new longs until the rate path becomes clearer. What’s your view? Are you positioning for a one-and-done hike or bracing for more? Share your BTC / gold / tech trades below! #FedRateWatch
#cpiwatch Nonfarm payrolls just beat expectations again… and now everyone’s staring at the upcoming CPI print like it’s the final boss. 😅 Honestly, I’m leaning toward the Fed holding rates for now. The labor market is still solid but not overheating the way it was last year, and any surprise on the inflation side could still force them to stay cautious. A hike right after strong jobs data feels a bit aggressive unless CPI comes in really hot. Personally I’m slightly bullish on gold right now as a hedge, and I’ve been slowly adding to my BTC position on dips. Stocks look mixed — tech is still holding up but I’m not going all-in until we see how the Fed reacts. What’s your take? Hiking or holding? And are you more bullish or bearish heading into this CPI? #CPIWatch