August core CPI came in at +0.3% MoM and markets have now priced in nearly 90% chance of a 25 bp hike this week. I personally expect the Fed to deliver that hike. Inflation is still sticky enough that they can’t afford to stay on hold but I don’t see this as the start of a long aggressive hiking cycle. More like a one-and-done or maybe two moves total to keep credibility.
If the hike lands here’s how I see the reaction:
BTC – short-term volatility and possible dip, but medium-term I stay bullish. Higher rates usually hurt risk assets initially yet Bitcoin has already priced in a lot of the hawkishness. Once the dust settles liquidity flows and ETF demand should support it again.
Tech stocks – clearly bearish in the short run. Higher discount rates hit growth names hard. Nasdaq will feel the pressure.
Gold – mixed to mildly bullish. Rate hikes are dollar-positive but any risk-off move or geopolitical noise can still push gold higher.
My own plan: I’m holding my long-term BTC bag and adding on any sharp dips. No fresh long on tech until we see the reaction. Gold I keep as a small hedge.
What do you guys think — one-and-done or the start of something bigger? Drop your view and share your trades.
#FedRateWatch
#fedratewatch
If the hike lands here’s how I see the reaction:
BTC – short-term volatility and possible dip, but medium-term I stay bullish. Higher rates usually hurt risk assets initially yet Bitcoin has already priced in a lot of the hawkishness. Once the dust settles liquidity flows and ETF demand should support it again.
Tech stocks – clearly bearish in the short run. Higher discount rates hit growth names hard. Nasdaq will feel the pressure.
Gold – mixed to mildly bullish. Rate hikes are dollar-positive but any risk-off move or geopolitical noise can still push gold higher.
My own plan: I’m holding my long-term BTC bag and adding on any sharp dips. No fresh long on tech until we see the reaction. Gold I keep as a small hedge.
What do you guys think — one-and-done or the start of something bigger? Drop your view and share your trades.
#FedRateWatch
#fedratewatch
