Robinhood will report Q3 after the market closes tonight, and options have already priced in a 10.2% move
Wall Street expects EPS of $0.56, lower than $0.61 in the same period last year, with revenue of $1.43 billion, up 13% year over year
In the past 6 earnings reports, it beat estimates 5 times, yet the stock fell every single time, with drops ranging from 2.9% to 13.2%
In July, it posted EPS of $0.62, $0.18 above expectations, and still fell 3.61%
Crypto trading revenue has declined for 3 straight quarters, with Q2 down to just $100 million, 38% lower year over year
Prediction markets, on the other hand, grew 10x, bringing in $156 million in Q2 and becoming the new pillar
The stock is at $95.07, down 18.4% over the past month and 16% year to date, now sitting on trendline support at $95.11
I think tonight's test is not whether it beats expectations, but whether crypto revenue can stop falling. The script of beating estimates and still dropping has already played out 6 times; the invalidation level is a post-earnings close above $103.32, or a quarter-over-quarter rebound in crypto trading revenue
Do you think tonight will be the 7th time of "beat and still drop," or will it finally be time to rise once?
$HOOD $COIN $BTC #Robinhood #earnings
This does not constitute investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.