ivanlabrie
6 Posts
ivanlabrie
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Time@Mode trend trader. Called Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms in real time since 2015, public and timestamped. Crypto, stocks, macro: the levels and the why.
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Fed decision today, and most of the big banks agree on one thing: Warsh probably won't say what comes next.
If they hike, Citi, JPMorgan, Nomura and UBS all expect little forward guidance. Goldman thinks he may want several inflation reports before moving again. TD reads a hike today as more tightening in the pipeline.
The hard part is the message. BofA's point: hint at more hikes and markets start pricing 100bp+, sound soft and the 2% target loses credibility. Deutsche Bank frames the cycle as taking back last year's 75bp of risk-management cuts and returning policy to restrictive.
$BTC $ETH #Fed #FOMC #Warsh
Fed decision today, and most of the big banks agree on one thing: Warsh probably won't say what comes next.
If they hike, Citi, JPMorgan, Nomura and UBS all expect little forward guidance. Goldman thinks he may want several inflation reports before moving again. TD reads a hike today as more tightening in the pipeline.
The hard part is the message. BofA's point: hint at more hikes and markets start pricing 100bp+, sound soft and the 2% target loses credibility. Deutsche Bank frames the cycle as taking back last year's 75bp of risk-management cuts and returning policy to restrictive.
$BTC $ETH #Fed #FOMC #Warsh
If they hike, Citi, JPMorgan, Nomura and UBS all expect little forward guidance. Goldman thinks he may want several inflation reports before moving again. TD reads a hike today as more tightening in the pipeline.
The hard part is the message. BofA's point: hint at more hikes and markets start pricing 100bp+, sound soft and the 2% target loses credibility. Deutsche Bank frames the cycle as taking back last year's 75bp of risk-management cuts and returning policy to restrictive.
$BTC $ETH #Fed #FOMC #Warsh
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$COIN short update. Price hit 164.68 today, 4.3% below my 172.11 entry.
I'm taking a quarter off here to lock in part of the gain and moving my stop down to entry. The rest of the trade can't turn into a loss now unless price gaps through that level.
Targets stay at 158.74 and 137.81.
Not advice, just how I'm managing the idea.
$COIN #Coinbase #TradeIdea
$COIN short update. Price hit 164.68 today, 4.3% below my 172.11 entry.
I'm taking a quarter off here to lock in part of the gain and moving my stop down to entry. The rest of the trade can't turn into a loss now unless price gaps through that level.
Targets stay at 158.74 and 137.81.
Not advice, just how I'm managing the idea.
$COIN #Coinbase #TradeIdea
I'm taking a quarter off here to lock in part of the gain and moving my stop down to entry. The rest of the trade can't turn into a loss now unless price gaps through that level.
Targets stay at 158.74 and 137.81.
Not advice, just how I'm managing the idea.
$COIN #Coinbase #TradeIdea
57
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The crypto selling started before Tuesday's Senate vote. Nobody knew the result yet.
$BTC traded from $79,427 on Monday to $76,862 intraday Tuesday, and about $300 million of bullish crypto positions were liquidated in the final hour before the CLARITY cloture vote.
Then the bill failed to reach 60 and the move extended, down as much as 5.3% intraday to $74,910. Over the next 24 hours about $571M of bullish futures were liquidated, with $BTC and $ETH longs taking about $190M each.
Failure was the base case and had been priced for weeks. Crypto was trading with rates that day: the 20-year Treasury reopening tailed, clearing at 5.420% against a 5.400% when-issued yield. The vote only took away a possible offset to that rate move.
The bill is still alive. A motion to reconsider was entered, and the realistic next window is the lame duck, 9 Nov to 18 Dec.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #ClarityAct #Macro
The crypto selling started before Tuesday's Senate vote. Nobody knew the result yet.
$BTC traded from $79,427 on Monday to $76,862 intraday Tuesday, and about $300 million of bullish crypto positions were liquidated in the final hour before the CLARITY cloture vote.
Then the bill failed to reach 60 and the move extended, down as much as 5.3% intraday to $74,910. Over the next 24 hours about $571M of bullish futures were liquidated, with $BTC and $ETH longs taking about $190M each.
Failure was the base case and had been priced for weeks. Crypto was trading with rates that day: the 20-year Treasury reopening tailed, clearing at 5.420% against a 5.400% when-issued yield. The vote only took away a possible offset to that rate move.
The bill is still alive. A motion to reconsider was entered, and the realistic next window is the lame duck, 9 Nov to 18 Dec.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #ClarityAct #Macro
$BTC traded from $79,427 on Monday to $76,862 intraday Tuesday, and about $300 million of bullish crypto positions were liquidated in the final hour before the CLARITY cloture vote.
Then the bill failed to reach 60 and the move extended, down as much as 5.3% intraday to $74,910. Over the next 24 hours about $571M of bullish futures were liquidated, with $BTC and $ETH longs taking about $190M each.
Failure was the base case and had been priced for weeks. Crypto was trading with rates that day: the 20-year Treasury reopening tailed, clearing at 5.420% against a 5.400% when-issued yield. The vote only took away a possible offset to that rate move.
The bill is still alive. A motion to reconsider was entered, and the realistic next window is the lame duck, 9 Nov to 18 Dec.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #ClarityAct #Macro
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Short $COIN on the daily. This one's my own trade idea.
Coinbase dropped 10.1% yesterday and closed at 172.11, under the 173.49 level on my chart.
Entry: 172.11
Stop: 184.64
Target 1: 158.74
Target 2: 137.81
That's 7.3% of risk to the stop against 7.8% to the first target and 19.9% to the second. Above 184.64 the idea is dead.
Not advice, just how I'm reading the chart.
$COIN #Coinbase #COIN #TradFi #TradingIdea
Short $COIN on the daily. This one's my own trade idea.
Coinbase dropped 10.1% yesterday and closed at 172.11, under the 173.49 level on my chart.
Entry: 172.11
Stop: 184.64
Target 1: 158.74
Target 2: 137.81
That's 7.3% of risk to the stop against 7.8% to the first target and 19.9% to the second. Above 184.64 the idea is dead.
Not advice, just how I'm reading the chart.
$COIN #Coinbase #COIN #TradFi #TradingIdea
Coinbase dropped 10.1% yesterday and closed at 172.11, under the 173.49 level on my chart.
Entry: 172.11
Stop: 184.64
Target 1: 158.74
Target 2: 137.81
That's 7.3% of risk to the stop against 7.8% to the first target and 19.9% to the second. Above 184.64 the idea is dead.
Not advice, just how I'm reading the chart.
$COIN #Coinbase #COIN #TradFi #TradingIdea
175
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The headline number in the IEA's September oil report means very little without the supply line below it.
Headline: global oil demand is forecast to fall 2.5 mb/d in 2026. Read alone, that looks like a glut coming for $CL and $BZ.
Below it: world supply averages 100.7 mb/d in 2026, down 5.7 mb/d year on year and 1.3 mb/d below last month's report. The IEA has also pushed full recovery for Middle East producers out to 2027.
Supply is falling more than twice as fast as demand. That is lost supply, with demand following it lower.
The demand line still matters. The IEA names higher fuel prices, diesel in particular, as one of the causes, and high prices eating demand is how a supply shock ends.
#Oil #IEA #Crude #Macro
The headline number in the IEA's September oil report means very little without the supply line below it.
Headline: global oil demand is forecast to fall 2.5 mb/d in 2026. Read alone, that looks like a glut coming for $CL and $BZ .
Below it: world supply averages 100.7 mb/d in 2026, down 5.7 mb/d year on year and 1.3 mb/d below last month's report. The IEA has also pushed full recovery for Middle East producers out to 2027.
Supply is falling more than twice as fast as demand. That is lost supply, with demand following it lower.
The demand line still matters. The IEA names higher fuel prices, diesel in particular, as one of the causes, and high prices eating demand is how a supply shock ends.
#Oil #IEA #Crude #Macro
Headline: global oil demand is forecast to fall 2.5 mb/d in 2026. Read alone, that looks like a glut coming for $CL and $BZ .
Below it: world supply averages 100.7 mb/d in 2026, down 5.7 mb/d year on year and 1.3 mb/d below last month's report. The IEA has also pushed full recovery for Middle East producers out to 2027.
Supply is falling more than twice as fast as demand. That is lost supply, with demand following it lower.
The demand line still matters. The IEA names higher fuel prices, diesel in particular, as one of the causes, and high prices eating demand is how a supply shock ends.
#Oil #IEA #Crude #Macro
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The hike on Wednesday is mostly priced. The dots aren't, and they're the first look at the committee since a hot core CPI and a jump in household inflation expectations.
$ETH is bullish on the weekly, monthly and quarterly, and the daily keeps basing under supply. 2,400 to 2,700 on ETHUSDT is a low-volume pocket from the decline: price fell through it fast and barely traded. Bulls need 2,700 back to continue. Below, support is the 2,080 to 2,385 region. The weekly uptrend holds while above 1,850, the quarterly while above 1,741.80.
$BTC is messier. The weekly uptrend from 19 August is still running and has time left. The daily downtrend got erased on 11 September, but no daily uptrend replaced it, so it's a choppy tape until one of those changes. Weekly invalidation is 63,500 on Bitstamp spot, on a weekly close. The quarterly trigger at 83,324 isn't armed, and that bar closes 30 September.
Signals only, not investment advice.
The hike on Wednesday is mostly priced. The dots aren't, and they're the first look at the committee since a hot core CPI and a jump in household inflation expectations.
$ETH is bullish on the weekly, monthly and quarterly, and the daily keeps basing under supply. 2,400 to 2,700 on ETHUSDT is a low-volume pocket from the decline: price fell through it fast and barely traded. Bulls need 2,700 back to continue. Below, support is the 2,080 to 2,385 region. The weekly uptrend holds while above 1,850, the quarterly while above 1,741.80.
$BTC is messier. The weekly uptrend from 19 August is still running and has time left. The daily downtrend got erased on 11 September, but no daily uptrend replaced it, so it's a choppy tape until one of those changes. Weekly invalidation is 63,500 on Bitstamp spot, on a weekly close. The quarterly trigger at 83,324 isn't armed, and that bar closes 30 September.
Signals only, not investment advice.
$ETH is bullish on the weekly, monthly and quarterly, and the daily keeps basing under supply. 2,400 to 2,700 on ETHUSDT is a low-volume pocket from the decline: price fell through it fast and barely traded. Bulls need 2,700 back to continue. Below, support is the 2,080 to 2,385 region. The weekly uptrend holds while above 1,850, the quarterly while above 1,741.80.
$BTC is messier. The weekly uptrend from 19 August is still running and has time left. The daily downtrend got erased on 11 September, but no daily uptrend replaced it, so it's a choppy tape until one of those changes. Weekly invalidation is 63,500 on Bitstamp spot, on a weekly close. The quarterly trigger at 83,324 isn't armed, and that bar closes 30 September.
Signals only, not investment advice.
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