The fate of U.S. perpetual contracts hangs in the balance: CME’s lawsuit against the CFTC enters countdown to a ruling
📌 In June, CME sued the CFTC, seeking to overturn its May 29 order approving the regulation of Kalshi’s Bitcoin perpetual contracts as “futures.” CME argues that perpetual contracts have no expiration date and are essentially “swaps” (Reuters/CoinDesk)
📌 On October 16, the CFTC filed its response, arguing that CME has not shown it was harmed and lacks standing to sue. It also cited CME’s own data: crypto futures trading volume rose from 2.66 million contracts in May to 3.28 million in September, an increase of about 23% (CoinDesk/CryptoWatchDesk)
📌 All written arguments on the motion to dismiss have been completed, and the case is awaiting a federal judge’s ruling. If the case proceeds, cross-motions for summary judgment are due November 20. Kalshi has self-certified perpetual contracts for ETH, SOL, XRP, LINK, and SUI (complaint)
📌 TD Cowen analyst Seiberg believes CME may still have the upper hand, and is concerned that perpetual contracts could grow ever larger during the lawsuit, making them difficult to roll back later
【Viewpoint】This is not just a dispute between exchanges, but a battle over whether “perpetual contracts can operate compliantly in the United States.” If they are classified as futures, U.S.-based platforms could rapidly expand perpetual contracts and attract some offshore leveraged capital. If they are classified as swaps, the higher barriers and compliance costs would largely impede their expansion in the U.S.
【Opportunities/Risks】
1️⃣ Watch for the ruling on the motion to dismiss: dismissal would benefit the expansion of U.S.-based perpetual contracts and related platforms; if the motion is denied, uncertainty could continue into December and beyond
2️⃣ The liquidity of coins with perpetual contracts already listed (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP, etc.) on compliant derivatives platforms in the U.S. is tied to this case
3️⃣ Risk: If the contracts are ultimately ruled to be swaps, existing positions and products could face delisting or migration, and leveraged capital may flow back offshore
Do you think U.S. perpetual contracts will ultimately be classified as “futures” or “swaps”?
#永续合约 #CFTC #加密监管 #BTC
$BTC $SOL For reference only; not investment advice