Vietnam Crypto

They say history doesn't always repeat itself, but in financial markets it often rhymes.
The recent dovish rumblings by U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have revived memories from early 2019 when bitcoin surged over 300% against a similar Fed backdrop.
Since early 2022, the Fed has raised interest rates by 525 basis points to tame inflation. The so-called liquidity tightening cycle has been one of the major sources of pain for risk assets, including bitcoin.
This week, the Fed policymakers have offered a dovish respite. On Tuesday, Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank may not need to raise rates further. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Fed Governor Christopher Waller argued that rising Treasury yields have done the Fed's job, preventing any urgent need for another rate hike, according to Reuters.
These comments have strengthened the belief in the market that the central bank's dreaded tightening cycle ended with July's 25 basis point rate and that the bank will now wait to see how the macroeconomic situation unfolds in the coming months.
The Fed's previous rate cycle, which ran for three years, saw rates peak at 2.5% in December 2018, following which the central bank adopted a wait-and-watch mode for seven months. Bitcoin bottomed out in December 2018 and rose to $13,880 by the end of June 2019.
Another interesting parallel is that the latest pause in the Fed tightening cycle comes several months ahead of the supposedly-bullish Bitcoin blockchain's mining reward halving, just as it did four years ago.
"Reflecting back on 2019, the Fed concluded its rate-hiking cycle and entered a seven-month pause. During this period, Bitcoin experienced a dramatic price rally, surging by an impressive 325%," Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy, said in a note to clients last week. "In line with our outlook, it’s highly likely that the Fed concluded its rate-hiking cycle in July 2023."
"At present, the most critical macroeconomic factor appears to be a reflection of the situation in 2019 when the Fed paused its rake hikes, leading to a significant surge in bitcoin prices," Thielen added.
In other words, assuming all else is equal, past data favors an upside in bitcoin. The leading cryptocurrency by market value changed hands at $26,800 at press time, representing a 62% year-to-date gain, according to CoinDesk data.
While the 2019 playbook favours upside in bitcoin, an eventual Fed pivot to rate cuts might initially lead to price weakness.
Per Thielen, traders should closely follow the rationale behind potential Fed rate cuts. Rate cuts implemented to counter economic weakness and low inflation might have bearish implications, Thielen noted.
#btc #fed #crypto2023 #bitcoin

لقد قام مجتمع التشفير مؤخرًا بفحص وجهة نظر الحكومة الأمريكية المتحيزة المزعومة بشأن استخدام العديد من المشاريع القائمة على التشفير لتمويل الإرهاب. في تغريدة حديثة، أثار متحمس XRP wEeZiE مخاوف بشأن ذكر وزارة الخارجية الأمريكية لـ Ripple في بيانها بشأن العملات المشفرة واستخدامها المحتمل من قبل المجرمين.
على وجه التحديد، أعرب عن مخاوفه من أن الحكومة الأمريكية غالبًا ما تذكر البيتكوين (BTC) والإيثريوم (ETH) عندما تسعى إلى مناقشة الأمور المتعلقة بصناعة الأصول الرقمية. ومع ذلك، وفقًا لمتحمس XRP، تتذكر الحكومة شركة Ripple، شركة الدفع المرتبطة بـ XRP، كلما سعت إلى انتقاد صناعة التشفير.

Bitcoin price is consolidating above the $26,550 level. BTC could correct higher, but upsides might be capped near the $27,400 and $27,500 resistance levels.
Bitcoin Price Holds Support
Bitcoin price started a fresh decline from the $27,500 resistance. BTC traded below the $27,000 level to enter a bearish zone. Finally, the bulls appeared above the $26,500 support.
The price remained well-bid near the $26,550 level. The bears made two attempts to push the price below $26,550, but they failed. A low is formed near $26,551 and the price is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $28,285 swing high to the $26,551 low.
Bitcoin is now trading below $27,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $26,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
Immediate resistance is near the $26,950 level. The first major resistance is $27,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. The next key resistance could be $27,400 and the trend line. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $28,285 swing high to the $26,551 low.
Bitcoin Price Holds Support
Bitcoin price started a fresh decline from the $27,500 resistance. BTC traded below the $27,000 level to enter a bearish zone. Finally, the bulls appeared above the $26,500 support.
The price remained well-bid near the $26,550 level. The bears made two attempts to push the price below $26,550, but they failed. A low is formed near $26,551 and the price is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $28,285 swing high to the $26,551 low.
Bitcoin is now trading below $27,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $26,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
Immediate resistance is near the $26,950 level. The first major resistance is $27,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. The next key resistance could be $27,400 and the trend line. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $28,285 swing high to the $26,551 low.
#btc #crypto2023 #bitcoin #crypto

After an initial surge at the beginning of the year, most digital assets have lost momentum, with Bitcoin being down 3.5% over the past month and over 62% year-to-date. Similarly, altcoins such as are up in the year but down significantly over the last few weeks.
As the U.S. faces a “debt death spiral” of $33 trillion, analysts from Jefferies have now cautioned that the Federal Reserve may have to resume its money printing—possibly causing the U.S. dollar to crash and boosting the price of the flagship cryptocurrency as it competes with gold.
In a recent note to clients Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jeffries, called Bitcoin and gold “critical hedges” against the return of inflation as G7 central banks “will not be able to exit from unconventional monetary policy in a benign manner and will ultimately remain committed to ongoing central bank balance-sheet expansion in one form or another.”
Wood’s comments come at a time in which the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks throughout the world have been aggressively raising interest rates to rein in inflation. The aggressive rate hikes have led to the collapse of several institutions, including Credit Suisse, which was bought by UBS for about $3.3 billion earlier this year.
After boosting its balance sheet with massive growth during the COVID-19 crisis and the lockdowns mandated over it, the Fed started to reduce its bloated balance sheet of almost $9 trillion in the spring of 2022. The process of quantitative tightening involves the central bank withdrawing money from the financial system, and shifting the responsibility of new debt to the private sector.
Now, analysts at Deutsche Bank have warned that the world could see a repeat of the 1970s stagflation era. In a note reported on by MarketWatch, macro strategist Henry Allen and research analyst Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace wrote:
So given inflation is still above its pre-pandemic levels, it is important not to get complacent about its path. After all, if there is another shock and inflation remains above target into a third or even a fourth year, it is increasingly difficult to imagine that long-term expectations will repeatedly stay lower than actual inflation.
Potential factors influencing such a shock could be the recent oubreak of war in Gaza, after the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched a multi-pronged attack on Israel – which led to its crypto accounts being frozen – and increased worker strikes, along with potential weather patterns affecting commodity prices.
If the US faces a recession, the Federal Reserve may be forced to flip on its hawkish stance and start stimulating the economy once again with lower interest rates following the recent money supply expansion. Such a move, Wood wrote, is “likely to culminate in the collapse of the U.S.-dollar paper standard to the benefit of both gold bullion owners and also owners of bitcoin.”
Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies like Ether and XRP have been attracting institutional interest over the last few weeks. As CryptoGlobe reported, major financial powerhouses that collectively manage an astounding $27 trillion in assets are making inroads into the world of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency after a race to list the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States kicked off.
In his note, Wood argued that Bitcoin has now “become investible for institutions” as custodian arrangements have made it an alternative store of value to gold.
#fed #btc #ETH #XRP #crypto2023

Long-term Bitcoin holders have kept on accumulating the flagship cryptocurrency at a rapid pace, despite the current sideways market that has seen BTC’s volatility plunge over time as it stays around the $27,000 mark.
According to data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, long-term Bitcoin holders have been accumulating approximately 50,000 BTC, worth over $1.35 billion, every month for at least 155 days.
The figures comes from the firm’s HODLer net position change metric. The metric measures how fast wallets that keep coins for at least 155 days are increasing their cryptocurrency holdings. Currently, long-term holders own more than 14.859 million Bitcoin, which is 76% of the available BTC supply, according to the data.
Backing up this data, popular cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez recently cited data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment on the microblogging platform X (formerly known as Twitter), noting that BTC whales have purchased around 20,000 BTC since the beginning of October, adding roughly $550 million to their stashes.
According to Glassnode, the Bitcoin blockchain is experiencing a noticeable coin dormancy pattern. Dormant coins are the ones that have not been moved for a long time, indicating a lack of supply in the market and opening up the possibility for a significant price increase if a supply shock is to occur.
As CryptoGlobe reported Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, recently predicted that the price of BTC will reach a valuation between $750,000 and $1 million by the year 2026.
He attributed this bullish forecast to a variety of economic factors, including government intervention, inflation, and the state of the global economy.
Recently, however, analyst Nicholas Merten warned his substantial following that Bitcoin could see a significant decline if the U.S. economy enters a recession. He attributes this potential fall to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, which he believes could lead to a prolonged economic downturn in the United States.
#btc #bitcoin #crypto2023

Bitcoin price is moving lower below the $27,200 support. BTC could decline further if the Israel-Hamas war escalates in the near term.
Bitcoin Price Starts Descend
Bitcoin price failed to gain pace above the $27,800 resistance. BTC reacted to the downside amid rising Israel-Hamas tensions. There were more than 1200 deaths reported already by Israel.
The price is moving lower below the $27,500 pivot level. There was also a downside break below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $27,185 swing low to the $28,284 high. More importantly, the price traded below the key $27,200 support zone.
Bitcoin is now trading below $27,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $27,550 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
If there is an upside correction, the price might face resistance near the $27,400 level. The next key resistance could be near the $27,500 level and the trend line. The first major resistance is $27,800, above which Bitcoin might test $28,250.
The main downtrend resistance could be $28,500. A close above the $28,500 resistance could start another increase. In the stated case, the price could rise toward the $30,000 resistance.
More Losses In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to recover higher above the $27,500 resistance, there could be more losses. Immediate support on the downside is near the $27,000 level or the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward move from the $27,185 swing low to the $28,284 high.
The next major support is near the $26,500 level. A downside break and close below the $26,500 support might send the price further lower. The next support sits at $26,000.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $27,000, followed by $26,500.
Major Resistance Levels – $27,400, $27,500, and $28,500.

شهدت الطبقة الثانية من الشبكة المسرّعة نموًا يقدر بنحو 1,212% في عامين، مع حوالي 6.6 مليون معاملة موجهة في أغسطس، وهي قفزة كبيرة مقارنة بـ 503,000 عملية انتقال في أغسطس 2021، وفقًا لبيانات من بورصة بيتكوين الوحيدة River.
وفي تقرير بتاريخ ١٠ أكتوبر، أوضح سام ووترز، محلل أبحاث ريفر، أن القفزة في المعاملات الموجهة - التي تستخدم أكثر من عقدتين لتسهيل التحويل - جاءت على الرغم من انخفاض سعر بيتكوين بنسبة ٤٤٪ وانخفاض الاهتمام بالبحث عبر الإنترنت بشكل كبير.

أعلنت شركة Circle المصدرة للعملة المستقرة أنها بدأت في سك عملة USD محليًا على بروتوكول توسيع الطبقة الثانية من Ethereum Polygon.يمكن للمستخدمين والمطورين الوصول إلى USDC دون ربط العملة المستقرة من Ethereum إلى blockchain آخر. تدعم الآن واجهات برمجة تطبيقات مطوري Circle Mint وCircle USDC المستندة إلى Polygon، مع الاستفادة من إمكانات التوسع في Polygon.وفقًا للإعلان الصادر عن شركة Circile، ستتمكن الشركات والمطورون من بناء تطبيقات لا مركزية (DApps) مع USDC على Polygon. يتم الترويج للعرض الجديد لتمكين المعاملات شبه الفورية ومنخفضة الرسوم لمجموعة متنوعة من حالات الاستخدام بما في ذلك المدفوعات والتحويلات المالية والتداول والاقتراض والإقراض.

ارتفعت قيمة البيتكوين في 10 أكتوبر/تشرين الأول بعد أن شهدت بداية تداولات السوق التقليدية سيطرة سياسة "تقليل المخاطر".
سعر البيتكوين يحافظ على الدعم الأسبوعي
أظهرت بيانات من Cointelegraph Markets Pro و TradingView عودة استقرار سعر BTC قبل افتتاح وول ستريت.
فقدت عملة البيتكوين استقرارها مع بداية الأسبوع، حيث كانت تتجه نحو 27300 دولار قبل أن تنعكس لتتداول بالقرب من 27700 دولار في وقت كتابة هذا التقرير.
وكتب المتداول الشهير سكيو في جزء من تحليل X في ذلك الوقت: "بشكل عام، كان هناك قدر كبير من تخفيض المخاطر في السوق إلى 27.4 ألف دولار - 27.3 ألف دولار".

Bitcoin price failed to clear the $28,500 resistance and corrected lower. BTC retested the $27,250 support and is currently attempting a fresh increase.
Bitcoin Price Faces Key Hurdles
Bitcoin price started a decent increase above the $27,800 resistance. However, BTC failed to remain in a positive zone and revisit the $28,500 resistance zone.
There was a steady decline below the $28,000 level. The price declined below the $27,500 level, but the bulls were active above the $27,250 support zone. A low was formed near $27,275 and the price is now rising. There was a move above the $27,500 level.
Bitcoin climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $28,284 high to the $27,275 high. It is now trading below $27,800 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
Besides, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $27,780 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $27,780 level and the trend line. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $28,284 high to the $27,275 high.
The next key resistance could be near the $28,100 level. The first major resistance is $28,250, above which Bitcoin might test $28,500. A close above the $28,500 resistance could start another increase. In the stated case, the price could rise toward the $29,200 resistance. Any more gains might call for a move toward the $30,000 level.
Another Drop In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to continue higher above the $27,780 resistance, there could be a fresh decline. Immediate support on the downside is near the $27,500 level.
The next major support is near the $27,250 level. A downside break and close below the $27,250 support might spark strong bearish moves. The next support sits at $26,200.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $27,500, followed by $27,250.
Major Resistance Levels – $27,780, $28,250, and $28,500.