Updating my positions and sharing some recent tools I'm using.
First up, Position 1. On the 22nd, I topped up with $800 at the $2,180 level, and today it’s sitting at $2,021, giving me an unrealized loss of about 7.3%, roughly $58 down. Overall, Position 1 now makes up 55% of my portfolio, and the average price has been significantly pushed up by this trade. However, my mindset is surprisingly calmer than last week, and I'll explain why later.
Position 2 with LINK is currently at $9.171, having spiked 3.3% in the last 24 hours—it's the only one moving in my portfolio. A little detail to note: the funding rate is -0.0023%, which means shorts are paying the longs. Price is rising, but the shorts haven't exited yet; I'm going to keep an eye on this structure without adding or reducing my position. Holding steady at 25% allocation.
Position 3 is still in ICU, so I won't go there.
I haven't touched my 20% USDT. As I mentioned before, I wasn't in a rush to jump in at fear and greed levels of 23, and I'm still at 23; my judgment hasn’t changed.
Now, about my mindset shift—I've been using a community dashboard on Dune where someone created a panel tracking Aave V3's TVL inflows and outflows, down to hourly granularity. It’s not a new tool, but I previously used DefiLlama for daily TVL and switching to this, I realized something: often, the intraday fluctuations in TVL are much larger than I imagined; while the daily view looks stable, there’s actually a lot of money flowing in and out during the day.
This has changed my understanding of "when to add to my positions." I used to only look at weekly closing patterns, but now I pay more attention to the protocol-level capital flow, too. For instance, Aave’s funding rate today is +0.0063%, price at $83, and the 4-hour percentile is 41.6%, which is on the lower end of the recent 60 candlesticks. If the TVL continues to flow in this week, I might consider building a small observation position and then reassess in 5 days.
No prescriptions here, just sharing my test results. But if anyone else is using Dune to track DeFi data, what indicators do you typically look at for buy decisions? I’d genuinely like to know.
#TVL