thaitraderoficial

🥷 YOU WILL LEARN WHETHER YOU’LL DO WELL OR DO WRONG — LESSON 4 - SECTORS IN THE CRYPTO MARKET 🔥

There are people who buy an asset and know everything about it: They know the price. They know where they bought it.
They know how much they want it to rise.

Now ask:
“What sector is this asset in?”
Silence. 👻

“But Thai, I saw that the project is really good.”
Okay. Good at what?

Infrastructure?
DeFi?
RWA?
AI?
Layer 1 | Layer 2?
DePIN?
Payments?

Before studying the asset, you need to understand which part of the market it belongs to.

________________

SECTOR IS NOT A DETAIL. IT’S CONTEXT.

Identifying the sector helps you answer:

What is this project for?
Who are the competitors?
Is there demand?
Is the sector receiving capital?
Is there adoption?
Is the asset relevant within it?

This is where you move on from:
“I bought it because people said it will go up.”

To:
“I know the thesis I’m buying.”

Look at that evolution. 🤌🏽

________________

EACH SECTOR REQUIRES A DIFFERENT READING

- In RWA, we look at tokenization.
- In infrastructure, usage, integrations, and adoption.
- In DeFi, liquidity, TVL, revenues, and economic activity.
- In AI, technology and real utility.
- And in a memecoin, narrative, community, liquidity, and speculation matter much more.

The sector changes what you need to analyze.

________________

🧠 CAPITAL ALSO ROTATES BETWEEN SECTORS

The market doesn’t distribute money evenly.

Some narratives concentrate capital while others get forgotten. NOTE THIS!

Then comes:
“Thai, why isn’t mine going up?”

Maybe because the market simply isn’t paying for that sector at that moment.

________________

🥷 TODAY’S TASK

Take the main assets in your portfolio and find out:

1. What is the sector?
2. What problem does it solve?
3. Who are the competitors?
4. What is its relevance?
5. Is there real adoption or just narrative?

If you can’t answer this about an asset where you put your money…

Congratulations.
You’ve just discovered you need to study a bit more.

#ThaiTraderOficial

#FED | TOM DE INCERTEZA, MAS MAIS HAWKISH

Kevin Warsh’s remarks reinforced concerns by the Federal Reserve about inflation and significantly increased the odds of higher rates already at the September meeting.

Warsh said that core inflation must move clearly and fast enough toward the 2% target. Otherwise, the Fed will still have “work to do.” He also noted that current financial conditions show few signs of being restrictive, keeping the door open to further monetary tightening.

📊 Scenarios for September:
🔴 25 bps hike: ~56%
⚪ Hold: ~44%
🟢 Cut: ~0%

Before the speech, the probability of a hike was roughly 35%, showing a meaningful shift in market pricing.

Short-term Treasuries reacted immediately: the 2-year yield rose to around 4.29%, while the dollar also gained strength.

The Fed did not confirm a hike, but the speech clearly moved the market toward more hawkish pricing. Potentially higher rates for longer increase the cost of capital, pressure risk assets, and could raise market volatility in the coming weeks.

#ThaiTraderOficial
#WarshSaysInflationIsFedTopFocus
$BTC

🏦 FED UNDER PRESSURE: MARKET WAITS FOR WARSH’S ANSWERS

Investors are waiting for Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole with clear expectations: to understand how the Fed plans to conduct monetary policy amid inflation that remains above the 2% target and still-high long-term interest rates.

The market is seeking answers mainly on inflation, the path of interest rates, and Treasuries. With yields under pressure, any tougher signal could reinforce tighter financial conditions and weigh on risk assets.

On the other hand, a more balanced stance, alongside relief in Treasuries, could improve risk perception.

Team #ThaiTraderOficial
#BitcoinFaces$6.4BOptionsExpiry

🥊🔥VIRTUALS LEADS TOKENIZATION OF AI AGENTS ON SOLANA 🐋🚀

The #Virtuals Protocol announced the launch of agent tokenization on #Solana, allowing anyone to turn an AI agent into an on-chain business.
According to Virtuals, these agents can raise capital, set fees, finance their own intelligence, and operate with their own portfolio, while the generated results can be shared with their owners.

This development expands Virtuals’ presence on Solana and reinforces the thesis of autonomous agents with their own economy within the blockchain.

Team #ThaiTraderOficial

📍TOKENIZATION ACCELERATES AND $ONDO STOCKS SURPASS US$ 1 BILLION 🥷⚔️

Ondo Finance notes that the adoption of tokenized assets is progressing at an increasingly faster pace.
Ondo Stocks surpassed US$ 1 billion in TVL in less than eight months, becoming, according to the company, the first tokenized equities platform to reach that milestone.

Ondo is also bringing these assets closer to institutional infrastructure: its partnership with Clearstream and 360X will provide integration of tokenized shares and ETFs into regulated trading flows, custody, settlement, and collateral.

Team #ThaiTraderOficial

Oiii Ninjas! I’m here to share my reading and recalling a few points: $BTC is above the projected pullback region around 76K, with validation up to 79K—an exact point marked by the move. Above this region, we enter the “cleanup box” of exchanges, with increased volatility and position hunts on both sides.

The recent move brought a strong liquidation of shorts and the rebuilding of leveraged positions. F futures remain elevated, while the ratio of major traders shows a higher presence of accounts in long.

On the daily heatmap, with BTC near 77.5K, we have a strong concentration of liquidity at 78K–78.3K. Below that, we see pockets around 76K and 75K.

⚠️ Asymmetry is important: below 75K, the estimated accumulated intensity of long liquidations on the main exchanges is approximately US$ 1,085 billion. Above 78K, it’s approximately US$ 609 million in exposed shorts.

Therefore, we have two possible moves: seek the live cleanup box above 79K (watch the saved live), clear the shorts, and then return; or lose the structure and accelerate toward liquidity below 76K–75K.

🐋 WINTERMUTE ON THE RADAR

Approximately US$ 500 million in BTC sent to Binance/Coinbase was observed. These transfers to exchanges increase the amount of assets available for trading and, potentially, selling.

In a region where BTC already concentrates strong liquidity and leveraged positions, this kind of movement raises the alert for selling pressure, volatility, and new liquidations.

⚠️ Transfer to an exchange is an important flow to monitor along with volume, but it doesn’t validate selling.

On the larger timeframes, BTC reacted from 58K and is now working again around the 77K–79K barrier. We remain within the broader Bear Market structure, so the pullback does not eliminate the corrections still expected for this cycle. The comparison of indices with prior structures, including 2022, remains as a reference for behavioral patterns.

#ThaiTraderOficial #BitcoinStrongestWeekSinceMarch2023

As I mentioned last week, we have turned our attention back to the S&P 500, using the validation of the next moves as a thermometer for $BTC. At the moment, it still maintains its main bullish structure, trading near the highs, even after a significant expansion. The index has accumulated +18.67% over 12 months and +71.07% over 60 months—figures that show the strength of the move over the longer horizon.

📍In the short term, however, we already see a loss of momentum and profit-taking after the recent highs. For now, the reading remains as a correction within an even larger positive structure, without confirmation of a reversal.

Technically, a deeper correction of the SPX—especially if it starts to break down relevant structures and move toward long-term references such as the 200 moving average—would signal a more consistent reduction in risk appetite.

For Bitcoin, this matters because it increases the likelihood that the corrective move happens simultaneously across risk markets.

#ThaiTraderOficial
#SP500EndsWeeklyWinStreak
#BitcoinStrongestWeekSinceMarch2023

🇯🇵 JAPAN BACK ON THE RADAR | WATCH OUT FOR THE BOJ 📍🥊

Data released today, Friday, August 21, increased attention on the Bank of Japan’s next steps.

Japan’s core inflation accelerated from 1.6% to 1.8% in July, while inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose from 1.7% to 1.9%. The preliminary August Manufacturing PMI also increased from 54.5 to 55.1, with new orders growing at the fastest pace since 2018. (Reuters)

🏦 The key point: the market has raised expectations that the BOJ will once again hike interest rates at the September 17–18 meeting, possibly taking the rate from 1% to 1.25%.

⚠️ And why does this matter for crypto?

Higher interest rates in Japan can strengthen the yen and encourage the unwinding of carry trade positions, reducing leverage and liquidity directed toward risk assets.

This doesn’t mean that a BOJ rate hike automatically drives Bitcoin down. But it does mean that September 17–18 is on our radar, because a more restrictive Japanese monetary policy can create volatility in stock markets—and consequently in the crypto market.

🇯🇵 Japan on the radar. Next BOJ decision: September 17–18.

#ThaiTraderOficial

🔥‼️₿ STRATEGY RETURNS TO THE POSITIVE WITH ITS POSITION IN $BITCOIN ‼️🔥🚀

The strategy is back above the average acquisition price of your massive Bitcoin reserve.

Currently, the company holds 840.447 BTC, acquired at an average price of US$ 75.385 per unit, representing approximately US$ 63.35 billion invested in Bitcoin.

With BTC trading again above the $75k region, Strategy’s position returns to unrealized profit.

But here’s the most interesting part: when a company owns more than 840 thousand Bitcoins, a relatively small move in the asset’s price means hundreds of millions of dollars in changes to its equity value.

For every US$ 1,000 increase in Bitcoin’s price, while holding that amount of BTC, approximately US$ 840 million are added to the position’s value. The same logic works for a decline.

Another important detail shows up in Strategy’s own history: in recent updates, the company also carried out sales of small portions of BTC. Even so, it continues to hold one of the largest corporate exposures to Bitcoin in the world.

📌 Current Strategy figures:

• 840.447 BTC in its wallet
• Average price: US$ 75.385
• Accumulated cost: approximately US$ 63.35 billion
• BTC again above the company’s average price

That’s why tracking Strategy’s average price has become interesting for the market. US$ 75.385 is no longer just another number on the chart: it’s the break-even point of a position worth over US$ 63 billion in Bitcoin.

And now that BTC is back working in this range, every move above or below that level quickly changes the unrealized result of one of the largest corporate Bitcoin positions in the market.

#thaitraderoficial #BitcoinHitsIntradayHigh$75500 #TreasuryBuybacksCouldExceed$4BPerIssue
$BTC

🇺🇸 CFTC MOVES FORWARD 🔥🐋 | The CFTC held its first meeting of the Innovation Advisory Committee, bringing together some of the leading figures from the U.S. crypto and financial markets.

The committee has 35 members, including executives from Coinbase, Kraken, Ripple, Gemini, Robinhood, Nasdaq, CME, ICE, Polymarket, Kalshi, Chainlink, Solana Labs, Uniswap, and other major companies.

📌 Key points discussed:

• creating a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States;

• the possibility of expanding the trading of cryptoassets, including leveraged products, within markets supervised by the CFTC;

• developing regulatory pathways for DeFi protocols and on-chain operations;

• advancing tokenization and integration between blockchain and the traditional financial market;

• modernizing rules for prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi;

• greater coordination between the SEC and the CFTC in defining rules for the sector.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig made it clear that the agency intends to move forward in building rules for the crypto market and not stand still if Congress takes longer to establish definitive legislation.

Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, also showed confidence in the progress of the CLARITY Act, which aims to more clearly define which assets fall under SEC responsibility and which fall under the CFTC.

⚠️ The next important milestone will be September 15, when a procedural vote in the Senate related to the bill is scheduled.

This comes shortly after the meeting held at the White House with Donald Trump and major figures from the sector.

The takeaway remains the same: the United States is accelerating the build-out of the regulatory infrastructure needed to bring crypto, DeFi, tokenization, and blockchain increasingly into the traditional financial system.

We’re not just talking about pro-crypto rhetoric. We’re talking about building regulatory structure.

#ThaiTraderOficial
#TrumpPressesCongressToPassClarityAct

Oi Ninjas! ARE YOU ALL BUZZING FROM YESTERDAY? 🐋🔥🔥🔥

#BTC went and got the healthy pullback we signaled several times in the saved lives.

What wouldn’t be normal would be for BTC to simply keep falling without making that move—especially within a structure that still maintains a bearish bias. We talked a lot about this and, in fact, we showed some concern precisely because that pullback was taking so long to happen.

Yesterday, we saw an extremely heavy move in the market. And here I’m not talking about institutions, but about big players with enough capital to move BTC through highly leveraged positions, combined with an aggressive liquidation of positions by the exchanges themselves.

It was approximately US$ 4 billion in liquidations over about 6 hours.

So what’s the result? SHORT SQUEEZE.

An enormous number of short positions were liquidated, triggering forced buying and violently accelerating BTC’s rise.

Add to that the macroeconomic events, the movement in US Treasury bonds, the Fed minutes, and Trump’s meeting with major names from the crypto, finance, and technology sectors.

All of this increased volatility even more.

⚠️ And this is exactly where the danger lies for anyone thinking about jumping in mid-way.

The market is extremely volatile, and a big part of this surge came from liquidation and the forced closing of shorts—not simply from a clean, continuous build of buy-side demand.

The scenario we’re following remains the same: WE ARE NOT IN A TREND RECOVERY. Calm down!

The market goes up, seeks liquidity, clears positions, and then breathes. It limits the gains and will never allow everyone to go down while shorted or to go long all at the same time. Exchanges and big players are far ahead of retail. The strongest move happens exactly when the market manages to squeeze out the maximum number of positions and leave the smallest number of people prepared for what comes next. DON’T GET AHEAD OF IT.

#ThaiTraderOficial

🇺🇸 FED SPEECH | $BTC
The Fed kept interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75% and reiterated that the fight against inflation is not over yet.
The president said the central bank will not make decisions based on a single economic data point, but on the trend of the indicators. He also noted that the U.S. economy remains resilient and that the market should respond increasingly to the data, and less to signals from the Fed itself.
The speech was firm, with no indication of rate cuts in the near term, and keeping inflation as the main focus.
We’ll keep watching.
#thaitraderoficial #KOSPICloses5.9%HigherOnChipmakerBuybacks #GrayscaleFilesToListZcashTrustOnNYSEArca #FASBProposesStablecoinsAsCashEquivalents #WalmartFalls7% $PEPE
$SOL
$XRP

🇺🇸 TRUMP SPEAKS TODAY AT 3:30 PM ON THE CRYPTO MARKET

Donald Trump will attend a meeting at the White House with executives from the crypto sector, industry representatives, and SEC and CFTC authorities.

The market will watch for possible signals regarding regulation and the United States’ strategy for digital assets. A favorable speech may improve sentiment in the short term, but structural progress still depends on effective rules and Congressional approval.

⏰ Time: 3:30 PM Brasília | 2:30 PM Washington

#ThaiTraderOficial