thaitraderoficial
1.7k Posts
thaitraderoficial
Especialista em análise estratégica de dados e gráficos | Expertise em Python, SQL, SAS e Tape Reading | 8 anos de experiência em cripto e na bolsa de valores.
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Thanks, Binance, for all the recognition so far!
Your platform has given my work amazing visibility, and that’s made a big difference. Through Binance, I’ve also been able to help a lot of people, sharing ideas and analysis with the community every day.
I really enjoy posting here and connecting with such an active and supportive audience. It’s been a unique and truly rewarding experience.
So thanks again, and happy 8th anniversary! Hope your growth keeps going strong. 🚀
#binanceswag #BinanceTurn8
#BinanceHODLerC #BinanceHODLerERA #Era
Your platform has given my work amazing visibility, and that’s made a big difference. Through Binance, I’ve also been able to help a lot of people, sharing ideas and analysis with the community every day.
I really enjoy posting here and connecting with such an active and supportive audience. It’s been a unique and truly rewarding experience.
So thanks again, and happy 8th anniversary! Hope your growth keeps going strong. 🚀
#binanceswag #BinanceTurn8
#BinanceHODLerC #BinanceHODLerERA #Era
PINNED
🚨🚨 ALERT | US × IRAN - NEW ESCALATION
Tensions between the United States and Iran have risen again, increasing the geopolitical risk in the Middle East.
After American forces hit Iranian launchers in the Strait of Hormuz region, Iran responded with ballistic missiles and drones targeting facilities with an American military presence in Jordan. Jordanian authorities reported the interception of part of the missiles.
The point drawing the most attention from the market remains the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important routes for transporting oil. Any escalation of the conflict or threat to the flow of vessels can quickly raise the risk premium on oil and pressure global markets.
Crypto market: pay special attention to fast deleveraging moves and liquidations if risk aversion increases.
⚠️ EXERCISE CAUTION WITH EXPOSURE AND LEVERAGE.
The situation remains in development, and new US × Iran actions may trigger sharp market moves.
Tensions between the United States and Iran have risen again, increasing the geopolitical risk in the Middle East.
After American forces hit Iranian launchers in the Strait of Hormuz region, Iran responded with ballistic missiles and drones targeting facilities with an American military presence in Jordan. Jordanian authorities reported the interception of part of the missiles.
The point drawing the most attention from the market remains the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important routes for transporting oil. Any escalation of the conflict or threat to the flow of vessels can quickly raise the risk premium on oil and pressure global markets.
Crypto market: pay special attention to fast deleveraging moves and liquidations if risk aversion increases.
⚠️ EXERCISE CAUTION WITH EXPOSURE AND LEVERAGE.
The situation remains in development, and new US × Iran actions may trigger sharp market moves.
🥷 YOU WILL LEARN WHETHER YOU’LL DO WELL OR DO WRONG — LESSON 4 - SECTORS IN THE CRYPTO MARKET 🔥
There are people who buy an asset and know everything about it: They know the price. They know where they bought it.
They know how much they want it to rise.
Now ask:
“What sector is this asset in?”
Silence. 👻
“But Thai, I saw that the project is really good.”
Okay. Good at what?
Infrastructure?
DeFi?
RWA?
AI?
Layer 1 | Layer 2?
DePIN?
Payments?
Before studying the asset, you need to understand which part of the market it belongs to.
________________
SECTOR IS NOT A DETAIL. IT’S CONTEXT.
Identifying the sector helps you answer:
What is this project for?
Who are the competitors?
Is there demand?
Is the sector receiving capital?
Is there adoption?
Is the asset relevant within it?
This is where you move on from:
“I bought it because people said it will go up.”
To:
“I know the thesis I’m buying.”
Look at that evolution. 🤌🏽
________________
EACH SECTOR REQUIRES A DIFFERENT READING
- In RWA, we look at tokenization.
- In infrastructure, usage, integrations, and adoption.
- In DeFi, liquidity, TVL, revenues, and economic activity.
- In AI, technology and real utility.
- And in a memecoin, narrative, community, liquidity, and speculation matter much more.
The sector changes what you need to analyze.
________________
🧠 CAPITAL ALSO ROTATES BETWEEN SECTORS
The market doesn’t distribute money evenly.
Some narratives concentrate capital while others get forgotten. NOTE THIS!
Then comes:
“Thai, why isn’t mine going up?”
Maybe because the market simply isn’t paying for that sector at that moment.
________________
🥷 TODAY’S TASK
Take the main assets in your portfolio and find out:
1. What is the sector?
2. What problem does it solve?
3. Who are the competitors?
4. What is its relevance?
5. Is there real adoption or just narrative?
If you can’t answer this about an asset where you put your money…
Congratulations.
You’ve just discovered you need to study a bit more.
#ThaiTraderOficial
There are people who buy an asset and know everything about it: They know the price. They know where they bought it.
They know how much they want it to rise.
Now ask:
“What sector is this asset in?”
Silence. 👻
“But Thai, I saw that the project is really good.”
Okay. Good at what?
Infrastructure?
DeFi?
RWA?
AI?
Layer 1 | Layer 2?
DePIN?
Payments?
Before studying the asset, you need to understand which part of the market it belongs to.
________________
SECTOR IS NOT A DETAIL. IT’S CONTEXT.
Identifying the sector helps you answer:
What is this project for?
Who are the competitors?
Is there demand?
Is the sector receiving capital?
Is there adoption?
Is the asset relevant within it?
This is where you move on from:
“I bought it because people said it will go up.”
To:
“I know the thesis I’m buying.”
Look at that evolution. 🤌🏽
________________
EACH SECTOR REQUIRES A DIFFERENT READING
- In RWA, we look at tokenization.
- In infrastructure, usage, integrations, and adoption.
- In DeFi, liquidity, TVL, revenues, and economic activity.
- In AI, technology and real utility.
- And in a memecoin, narrative, community, liquidity, and speculation matter much more.
The sector changes what you need to analyze.
________________
🧠 CAPITAL ALSO ROTATES BETWEEN SECTORS
The market doesn’t distribute money evenly.
Some narratives concentrate capital while others get forgotten. NOTE THIS!
Then comes:
“Thai, why isn’t mine going up?”
Maybe because the market simply isn’t paying for that sector at that moment.
________________
🥷 TODAY’S TASK
Take the main assets in your portfolio and find out:
1. What is the sector?
2. What problem does it solve?
3. Who are the competitors?
4. What is its relevance?
5. Is there real adoption or just narrative?
If you can’t answer this about an asset where you put your money…
Congratulations.
You’ve just discovered you need to study a bit more.
#ThaiTraderOficial
Sometimes I really don’t know what goes through people’s minds. The text is very clear: RIPPLE Prime, institutional expansion, Total Return Swaps, integration between the traditional market and digital assets, and strengthening infrastructure for major participants. At no point does it say “XRP is going to explode”. Folks, read the content before commenting on whatever comes to mind. Interpreting text is also part of investing.
😅🤌🏽
😅🤌🏽
Leo Reis
·
--
interesting that every XRP drop comes with a post saying that Ripple is exploding
Verified
#FED | TOM DE INCERTEZA, MAS MAIS HAWKISH
Kevin Warsh’s remarks reinforced concerns by the Federal Reserve about inflation and significantly increased the odds of higher rates already at the September meeting.
Warsh said that core inflation must move clearly and fast enough toward the 2% target. Otherwise, the Fed will still have “work to do.” He also noted that current financial conditions show few signs of being restrictive, keeping the door open to further monetary tightening.
📊 Scenarios for September:
🔴 25 bps hike: ~56%
⚪ Hold: ~44%
🟢 Cut: ~0%
Before the speech, the probability of a hike was roughly 35%, showing a meaningful shift in market pricing.
Short-term Treasuries reacted immediately: the 2-year yield rose to around 4.29%, while the dollar also gained strength.
The Fed did not confirm a hike, but the speech clearly moved the market toward more hawkish pricing. Potentially higher rates for longer increase the cost of capital, pressure risk assets, and could raise market volatility in the coming weeks.
#ThaiTraderOficial
#WarshSaysInflationIsFedTopFocus
$BTC
Kevin Warsh’s remarks reinforced concerns by the Federal Reserve about inflation and significantly increased the odds of higher rates already at the September meeting.
Warsh said that core inflation must move clearly and fast enough toward the 2% target. Otherwise, the Fed will still have “work to do.” He also noted that current financial conditions show few signs of being restrictive, keeping the door open to further monetary tightening.
📊 Scenarios for September:
🔴 25 bps hike: ~56%
⚪ Hold: ~44%
🟢 Cut: ~0%
Before the speech, the probability of a hike was roughly 35%, showing a meaningful shift in market pricing.
Short-term Treasuries reacted immediately: the 2-year yield rose to around 4.29%, while the dollar also gained strength.
The Fed did not confirm a hike, but the speech clearly moved the market toward more hawkish pricing. Potentially higher rates for longer increase the cost of capital, pressure risk assets, and could raise market volatility in the coming weeks.
#ThaiTraderOficial
#WarshSaysInflationIsFedTopFocus
$BTC
Verified
🇺🇲 WARSH DISCOURSE TODAY IN JACKSON HOLE
🏛️ Kevin Warsh faces his first major test in Jackson Hole. Investors are waiting for signals on inflation, interest rates, and bond volatility. With PCE at 3.7%, well above the 2% target, pressure is mounting for clear communication on when the Fed may resume raising interest rates.
Warsh’s first speech scheduled for 11:00 a.m. (Brasília time) at the prestigious economic symposium of the U.S. central bank in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, has become an important test just three months after taking office as Fed chair. The key question is whether he can stick with his “less is more” approach in monetary policy communication, or whether he will feel compelled to provide, at least, an outline of how he views elevated inflation and—crucially—what could lead him to conclude that higher interest rates are needed to contain it.
Team #ThaiTraderOficial
🏛️ Kevin Warsh faces his first major test in Jackson Hole. Investors are waiting for signals on inflation, interest rates, and bond volatility. With PCE at 3.7%, well above the 2% target, pressure is mounting for clear communication on when the Fed may resume raising interest rates.
Warsh’s first speech scheduled for 11:00 a.m. (Brasília time) at the prestigious economic symposium of the U.S. central bank in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, has become an important test just three months after taking office as Fed chair. The key question is whether he can stick with his “less is more” approach in monetary policy communication, or whether he will feel compelled to provide, at least, an outline of how he views elevated inflation and—crucially—what could lead him to conclude that higher interest rates are needed to contain it.
Team #ThaiTraderOficial
Verified
ATTENTION, NINJAS | NVIDIA
Yes, we already have the release of NVIDIA’s results, scheduled for approximately 5:20 PM Brasilia time.
⚠️ Event of high relevance for the market.
NVIDIA is one of the main thermometers of the tech sector and of risk appetite (risk-on). Revenue, profit, Data Center, and especially the guidance can increase volatility in the markets after the release.
📊 Above-expected numbers + strong guidance → favors risk-on.
📉 Disappointment in results or projections → may pressure risk assets.
🥷 Watch out for volatility. Sharp risk management—don’t chase the price.
Yes, we already have the release of NVIDIA’s results, scheduled for approximately 5:20 PM Brasilia time.
⚠️ Event of high relevance for the market.
NVIDIA is one of the main thermometers of the tech sector and of risk appetite (risk-on). Revenue, profit, Data Center, and especially the guidance can increase volatility in the markets after the release.
📊 Above-expected numbers + strong guidance → favors risk-on.
📉 Disappointment in results or projections → may pressure risk assets.
🥷 Watch out for volatility. Sharp risk management—don’t chase the price.
TODAY'S CLASS: YOU’LL LEARN WHETHER YOU WIN OR LOSE - PART 3 😐👻🔥
🚨 THE STOP IS NOT “VERY CLOSE.” YOU ARE THE ONE WHO ENTERED WRONG.
This scene is classic.
You enter and define:
“My stop is here. Risk management always.” 🧘♀️
Price moves against you and gets close to the stop.
📍Suddenly, a new analysis is born:
“Now that I think about it… this support down here is also strong.” 🤔
Move the stop.
It drops more.
“Actually, looking at the 4H…”
Move it again.
Before long, you’re looking for support on the monthly chart. 😂
STOP IS NOT PUNISHMENT. IT’S THE PRICE OF BEING WRONG.
Before entering, you need to know three things:
where you enter, where your reading is invalidated, and how much you’re willing to lose.
That’s where the technical stop comes from.
If the market loses the region that supported your reading, it doesn’t matter how much you “believe” in the asset.
The structure has changed.
There’s a difference between price fluctuating within your reading and your reading being invalidated while you keep operating, hoping.
Hoping is for the stadium. In the chart, we work with risk.
🥷 Stop doesn’t exist to prevent you from losing. It exists to prevent a controlled loss from turning into a huge problem. It exists to prevent one wrong decision from destroying several right ones. 🔥
Leave a like for me.
#ThaiTraderOficia
#BinanceSquareFamily
🚨 THE STOP IS NOT “VERY CLOSE.” YOU ARE THE ONE WHO ENTERED WRONG.
This scene is classic.
You enter and define:
“My stop is here. Risk management always.” 🧘♀️
Price moves against you and gets close to the stop.
📍Suddenly, a new analysis is born:
“Now that I think about it… this support down here is also strong.” 🤔
Move the stop.
It drops more.
“Actually, looking at the 4H…”
Move it again.
Before long, you’re looking for support on the monthly chart. 😂
STOP IS NOT PUNISHMENT. IT’S THE PRICE OF BEING WRONG.
Before entering, you need to know three things:
where you enter, where your reading is invalidated, and how much you’re willing to lose.
That’s where the technical stop comes from.
If the market loses the region that supported your reading, it doesn’t matter how much you “believe” in the asset.
The structure has changed.
There’s a difference between price fluctuating within your reading and your reading being invalidated while you keep operating, hoping.
Hoping is for the stadium. In the chart, we work with risk.
🥷 Stop doesn’t exist to prevent you from losing. It exists to prevent a controlled loss from turning into a huge problem. It exists to prevent one wrong decision from destroying several right ones. 🔥
Leave a like for me.
#ThaiTraderOficia
#BinanceSquareFamily
Verified
🏦 FED UNDER PRESSURE: MARKET WAITS FOR WARSH’S ANSWERS
Investors are waiting for Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole with clear expectations: to understand how the Fed plans to conduct monetary policy amid inflation that remains above the 2% target and still-high long-term interest rates.
The market is seeking answers mainly on inflation, the path of interest rates, and Treasuries. With yields under pressure, any tougher signal could reinforce tighter financial conditions and weigh on risk assets.
On the other hand, a more balanced stance, alongside relief in Treasuries, could improve risk perception.
Team #ThaiTraderOficial
#BitcoinFaces$6.4BOptionsExpiry
Investors are waiting for Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole with clear expectations: to understand how the Fed plans to conduct monetary policy amid inflation that remains above the 2% target and still-high long-term interest rates.
The market is seeking answers mainly on inflation, the path of interest rates, and Treasuries. With yields under pressure, any tougher signal could reinforce tighter financial conditions and weigh on risk assets.
On the other hand, a more balanced stance, alongside relief in Treasuries, could improve risk perception.
Team #ThaiTraderOficial
#BitcoinFaces$6.4BOptionsExpiry
Verified
📍TOKENIZATION ACCELERATES AND $ONDO STOCKS SURPASS US$ 1 BILLION 🥷⚔️
Ondo Finance notes that the adoption of tokenized assets is progressing at an increasingly faster pace.
Ondo Stocks surpassed US$ 1 billion in TVL in less than eight months, becoming, according to the company, the first tokenized equities platform to reach that milestone.
Ondo is also bringing these assets closer to institutional infrastructure: its partnership with Clearstream and 360X will provide integration of tokenized shares and ETFs into regulated trading flows, custody, settlement, and collateral.
Team #ThaiTraderOficial
Ondo Finance notes that the adoption of tokenized assets is progressing at an increasingly faster pace.
Ondo Stocks surpassed US$ 1 billion in TVL in less than eight months, becoming, according to the company, the first tokenized equities platform to reach that milestone.
Ondo is also bringing these assets closer to institutional infrastructure: its partnership with Clearstream and 360X will provide integration of tokenized shares and ETFs into regulated trading flows, custody, settlement, and collateral.
Team #ThaiTraderOficial
Verified
🥊🔥VIRTUALS LEADS TOKENIZATION OF AI AGENTS ON SOLANA 🐋🚀
The #Virtuals Protocol announced the launch of agent tokenization on #Solana, allowing anyone to turn an AI agent into an on-chain business.
According to Virtuals, these agents can raise capital, set fees, finance their own intelligence, and operate with their own portfolio, while the generated results can be shared with their owners.
This development expands Virtuals’ presence on Solana and reinforces the thesis of autonomous agents with their own economy within the blockchain.
Team #ThaiTraderOficial
The #Virtuals Protocol announced the launch of agent tokenization on #Solana, allowing anyone to turn an AI agent into an on-chain business.
According to Virtuals, these agents can raise capital, set fees, finance their own intelligence, and operate with their own portfolio, while the generated results can be shared with their owners.
This development expands Virtuals’ presence on Solana and reinforces the thesis of autonomous agents with their own economy within the blockchain.
Team #ThaiTraderOficial
Good morning, Ninjas! 🥷
Treasuries retreat slightly this morning, but long-term yields remain elevated. The 10-year stays near 4.7%, indicating that the Treasury buybacks have not yet been enough to remove the market’s structural pressure in the bond market. For BTC, a sustained drop in yields favors risk appetite; a renewed acceleration toward 5% is something to watch closely.
WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON IT!
Treasuries retreat slightly this morning, but long-term yields remain elevated. The 10-year stays near 4.7%, indicating that the Treasury buybacks have not yet been enough to remove the market’s structural pressure in the bond market. For BTC, a sustained drop in yields favors risk appetite; a renewed acceleration toward 5% is something to watch closely.
WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON IT!
As I mentioned last week, we have turned our attention back to the S&P 500, using the validation of the next moves as a thermometer for $BTC. At the moment, it still maintains its main bullish structure, trading near the highs, even after a significant expansion. The index has accumulated +18.67% over 12 months and +71.07% over 60 months—figures that show the strength of the move over the longer horizon.
📍In the short term, however, we already see a loss of momentum and profit-taking after the recent highs. For now, the reading remains as a correction within an even larger positive structure, without confirmation of a reversal.
Technically, a deeper correction of the SPX—especially if it starts to break down relevant structures and move toward long-term references such as the 200 moving average—would signal a more consistent reduction in risk appetite.
For Bitcoin, this matters because it increases the likelihood that the corrective move happens simultaneously across risk markets.
#ThaiTraderOficial
#SP500EndsWeeklyWinStreak
#BitcoinStrongestWeekSinceMarch2023
📍In the short term, however, we already see a loss of momentum and profit-taking after the recent highs. For now, the reading remains as a correction within an even larger positive structure, without confirmation of a reversal.
Technically, a deeper correction of the SPX—especially if it starts to break down relevant structures and move toward long-term references such as the 200 moving average—would signal a more consistent reduction in risk appetite.
For Bitcoin, this matters because it increases the likelihood that the corrective move happens simultaneously across risk markets.
#ThaiTraderOficial
#SP500EndsWeeklyWinStreak
#BitcoinStrongestWeekSinceMarch2023
PART 2: DON’T GO AGAINST THE CURRENT
What we can observe right now is that trying to anticipate a reversal and enter against the flow is a mistake. Regardless of manipulations or movements by large players—even if they’re not institutional— a meaningful inflow of capital and volume can move the market and extend a move far beyond what seems “overstretched.”
This market is a box of surprises. No matter how much we can project regions where the asset tends to trade, we’ve seen countless stop hunts where the broker triggers an extreme percentage spike, liquidates positions on one side, and then violently gives it back—hitting the people who were positioned on the other side.
That’s why DO NOT ENTER AGAINST THE FLOW. Wait for the market to show a loss of momentum, a change in structure, and confirmation before taking the opposite side.
Entering simply because “it has already gone up too much” or “it has already fallen too much” stops being a read and becomes far more dependent on luck.
First, risk management. Then, capital building.
What we can observe right now is that trying to anticipate a reversal and enter against the flow is a mistake. Regardless of manipulations or movements by large players—even if they’re not institutional— a meaningful inflow of capital and volume can move the market and extend a move far beyond what seems “overstretched.”
This market is a box of surprises. No matter how much we can project regions where the asset tends to trade, we’ve seen countless stop hunts where the broker triggers an extreme percentage spike, liquidates positions on one side, and then violently gives it back—hitting the people who were positioned on the other side.
That’s why DO NOT ENTER AGAINST THE FLOW. Wait for the market to show a loss of momentum, a change in structure, and confirmation before taking the opposite side.
Entering simply because “it has already gone up too much” or “it has already fallen too much” stops being a read and becomes far more dependent on luck.
First, risk management. Then, capital building.
thaitraderoficial
·
--
Oiii Ninjas! I’m here to share my reading and recalling a few points: $BTC is above the projected pullback region around 76K, with validation up to 79K—an exact point marked by the move. Above this region, we enter the “cleanup box” of exchanges, with increased volatility and position hunts on both sides.
The recent move brought a strong liquidation of shorts and the rebuilding of leveraged positions. F futures remain elevated, while the ratio of major traders shows a higher presence of accounts in long.
On the daily heatmap, with BTC near 77.5K, we have a strong concentration of liquidity at 78K–78.3K. Below that, we see pockets around 76K and 75K.
⚠️ Asymmetry is important: below 75K, the estimated accumulated intensity of long liquidations on the main exchanges is approximately US$ 1,085 billion. Above 78K, it’s approximately US$ 609 million in exposed shorts.
Therefore, we have two possible moves: seek the live cleanup box above 79K (watch the saved live), clear the shorts, and then return; or lose the structure and accelerate toward liquidity below 76K–75K.
🐋 WINTERMUTE ON THE RADAR
Approximately US$ 500 million in BTC sent to Binance/Coinbase was observed. These transfers to exchanges increase the amount of assets available for trading and, potentially, selling.
In a region where BTC already concentrates strong liquidity and leveraged positions, this kind of movement raises the alert for selling pressure, volatility, and new liquidations.
⚠️ Transfer to an exchange is an important flow to monitor along with volume, but it doesn’t validate selling.
On the larger timeframes, BTC reacted from 58K and is now working again around the 77K–79K barrier. We remain within the broader Bear Market structure, so the pullback does not eliminate the corrections still expected for this cycle. The comparison of indices with prior structures, including 2022, remains as a reference for behavioral patterns.
#ThaiTraderOficial #BitcoinStrongestWeekSinceMarch2023
The recent move brought a strong liquidation of shorts and the rebuilding of leveraged positions. F futures remain elevated, while the ratio of major traders shows a higher presence of accounts in long.
On the daily heatmap, with BTC near 77.5K, we have a strong concentration of liquidity at 78K–78.3K. Below that, we see pockets around 76K and 75K.
⚠️ Asymmetry is important: below 75K, the estimated accumulated intensity of long liquidations on the main exchanges is approximately US$ 1,085 billion. Above 78K, it’s approximately US$ 609 million in exposed shorts.
Therefore, we have two possible moves: seek the live cleanup box above 79K (watch the saved live), clear the shorts, and then return; or lose the structure and accelerate toward liquidity below 76K–75K.
🐋 WINTERMUTE ON THE RADAR
Approximately US$ 500 million in BTC sent to Binance/Coinbase was observed. These transfers to exchanges increase the amount of assets available for trading and, potentially, selling.
In a region where BTC already concentrates strong liquidity and leveraged positions, this kind of movement raises the alert for selling pressure, volatility, and new liquidations.
⚠️ Transfer to an exchange is an important flow to monitor along with volume, but it doesn’t validate selling.
On the larger timeframes, BTC reacted from 58K and is now working again around the 77K–79K barrier. We remain within the broader Bear Market structure, so the pullback does not eliminate the corrections still expected for this cycle. The comparison of indices with prior structures, including 2022, remains as a reference for behavioral patterns.
#ThaiTraderOficial #BitcoinStrongestWeekSinceMarch2023
Oiii Ninjas! I’m here to share my reading and recalling a few points: $BTC is above the projected pullback region around 76K, with validation up to 79K—an exact point marked by the move. Above this region, we enter the “cleanup box” of exchanges, with increased volatility and position hunts on both sides.
The recent move brought a strong liquidation of shorts and the rebuilding of leveraged positions. F futures remain elevated, while the ratio of major traders shows a higher presence of accounts in long.
On the daily heatmap, with BTC near 77.5K, we have a strong concentration of liquidity at 78K–78.3K. Below that, we see pockets around 76K and 75K.
⚠️ Asymmetry is important: below 75K, the estimated accumulated intensity of long liquidations on the main exchanges is approximately US$ 1,085 billion. Above 78K, it’s approximately US$ 609 million in exposed shorts.
Therefore, we have two possible moves: seek the live cleanup box above 79K (watch the saved live), clear the shorts, and then return; or lose the structure and accelerate toward liquidity below 76K–75K.
🐋 WINTERMUTE ON THE RADAR
Approximately US$ 500 million in BTC sent to Binance/Coinbase was observed. These transfers to exchanges increase the amount of assets available for trading and, potentially, selling.
In a region where BTC already concentrates strong liquidity and leveraged positions, this kind of movement raises the alert for selling pressure, volatility, and new liquidations.
⚠️ Transfer to an exchange is an important flow to monitor along with volume, but it doesn’t validate selling.
On the larger timeframes, BTC reacted from 58K and is now working again around the 77K–79K barrier. We remain within the broader Bear Market structure, so the pullback does not eliminate the corrections still expected for this cycle. The comparison of indices with prior structures, including 2022, remains as a reference for behavioral patterns.
#ThaiTraderOficial #BitcoinStrongestWeekSinceMarch2023
The recent move brought a strong liquidation of shorts and the rebuilding of leveraged positions. F futures remain elevated, while the ratio of major traders shows a higher presence of accounts in long.
On the daily heatmap, with BTC near 77.5K, we have a strong concentration of liquidity at 78K–78.3K. Below that, we see pockets around 76K and 75K.
⚠️ Asymmetry is important: below 75K, the estimated accumulated intensity of long liquidations on the main exchanges is approximately US$ 1,085 billion. Above 78K, it’s approximately US$ 609 million in exposed shorts.
Therefore, we have two possible moves: seek the live cleanup box above 79K (watch the saved live), clear the shorts, and then return; or lose the structure and accelerate toward liquidity below 76K–75K.
🐋 WINTERMUTE ON THE RADAR
Approximately US$ 500 million in BTC sent to Binance/Coinbase was observed. These transfers to exchanges increase the amount of assets available for trading and, potentially, selling.
In a region where BTC already concentrates strong liquidity and leveraged positions, this kind of movement raises the alert for selling pressure, volatility, and new liquidations.
⚠️ Transfer to an exchange is an important flow to monitor along with volume, but it doesn’t validate selling.
On the larger timeframes, BTC reacted from 58K and is now working again around the 77K–79K barrier. We remain within the broader Bear Market structure, so the pullback does not eliminate the corrections still expected for this cycle. The comparison of indices with prior structures, including 2022, remains as a reference for behavioral patterns.
#ThaiTraderOficial #BitcoinStrongestWeekSinceMarch2023
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