#fomcwatch — The hike trade is dead. The minutes just haven't caught up.
The setup: July FOMC minutes drop today, 2:00 PM ET — and the macro tape has moved violently against the hawks since.
What the data says since the July meeting:
💥Retail sales -0.6% MoM and NFP -23K — the labor market is rolling over, claims at 209K vs 202K forecast
💥September hold odds jumped to ~65-67% (from ~60% pre-PPI); the next hike is now priced for January 2027 — a week ago the market was fully pricing December
💥Goldman: a September hike is "extremely unlikely" — soft retail, weak jobs, cooling inflation
The twist nobody's watching: the 30-year hit 5.33% (19-year high) — and Treasury quietly doubled its long-end buybacks ($2B → $4B+ per op, Sep 9–Nov 4). That's de-facto QE-lite at the long end. Yields already snapped back ~9bp.
What to actually watch: not
$BTC — watch the 2-year and the dollar . If the minutes show hawks pushing back (Cleveland's Hamaker is out there calling policy "not restrictive enough"), expect a 2y/USD spike into the close. But the data is doing the dovish work: the last hawk scare of this cycle is a fade, not a trend.
⚠️ Informational only, not financial advice.
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