Global Stocks Diverge as Capital Rotates Away from AI and Toward Defensive Sectors
๐ Global equities ended the July 20โ24 week with a sharp regional divergence. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.1%, and the Dow Jones declined 0.4%, marking a second consecutive weekly drop for major US indices. Meanwhile, the STOXX Europe 600 gained 0.47%, showing greater resilience.
๐ป AI and semiconductor stocks remained the main source of pressure as investors reassessed elevated valuations and the returns generated by rapidly rising capital expenditure. Alphabet fell around 7% after raising its capex outlook, while Tesla dropped nearly 15% amid weaker profits and concerns over AI investment costs. The sell-off spread across Asia, with the KOSPI falling about 5.7% and the Nikkei 225 losing nearly 2.7% on Friday.
๐ข Escalating USโIran tensions pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel before it eased to around $96.78. Oil still gained roughly 8โ10% over the week, reviving inflation concerns and keeping the US 10-year Treasury yield near 4.7%, adding further pressure on highly valued growth stocks.
๐ Sector performance suggests capital is rotating rather than leaving the market entirely. Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary both declined around 6%, while Utilities gained approximately 2.3% and Industrials rose 1.6%. Energy, financials, and selected defensive sectors also maintained relative strength.
๐ Many investors are watching the 7,300โ7,350 area on the S&P 500. Holding this zone, combined with Brent falling below $95 and resilient results from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, could support a recovery toward 7,500โ7,550. Weak Big Tech guidance or further escalation in Iran could instead send the index closer to 7,200.
๐ The Federal Reserve meeting, oil prices, and the quality of earnings from major technology companies will determine whether the current decline remains a normal unwinding of crowded positions or develops into a deeper correction.
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