$BMNR is down nearly 8% over the past 24 hours, with a quote of $23.33. At the same time, its perpetual contract funding rate remains positive, around 0.00019029. This is a clear negative combination signal: prices are falling, yet longs are still paying shorts.
What does this mean? A positive funding rate indicates that long positions in the derivatives market are more crowded—they’re willing to pay to maintain bullish positions. But the price itself is falling, creating a contradiction. While longs absorb unrealized losses from the price decline, they continue paying the funding fee. This setup is very fragile—it suggests that bullish expectations are already diverging from the current price action. In simple terms, longs are carrying the weight, and the market hasn’t finished clearing.
With open interest around 625,000 contracts, combined with the falling price and the positive funding rate, it’s very likely that a substantial portion of leveraged long positions are hard holding. Their risk isn’t just one-sided price risk, but a squeeze from both the falling price and the funding cost. In this structure, if the price keeps weakening, it may trigger forced liquidations and accelerate the downside.
What’s the strongest counterevidence? If next the funding rate for
$BMNR rapidly turns negative, it would mean the short side is starting to outpace, and market sentiment is shifting—then my current view would need to be revised. Another counterevidence is a high-volume rebound that holds above and stabilizes, directly reversing the downward momentum. The condition for the thesis to fail is whether the funding rate can turn negative, or whether the price can reclaim recent highs.
The second-order impact will affect two groups. Leveraged longs are the main ones bearing the costs—if the pressure persists, they may be forced to reduce positions or get liquidated, providing liquidity to the downside. Spot holders, if they see this derivatives-market structure, may choose to take profits or cut losses earlier to avoid being dragged down by selling pressure from the futures market.
The current action recommendation is very straightforward: I don’t recommend opening perpetual positions in any direction. Going long means fighting against both the price trend and the structure of positive funding. Going short may align with the price trend, but a positive funding rate means you’d have to pay the counterparty—so the cost isn’t low. The safest move is to wait. If later the funding rate turns negative and the price shows signs of stabilizing, you can cautiously test a long with a small position. Given these two signals, staying on the sidelines is the best choice.
The market may attribute this drop to some specific stock-related bad news or sector rotation, but I believe the funding-rate structure is the key. Once this structure changes, the move could reverse immediately.
Trading tag:
#TradFi #链上美股 #BMNR
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?