$BMNR daily line surged 11.514%, funding rate is 0.00013206—longs are paying.
The sentiment premium behind the Trump trade has already become overheated on this one. The price is being pushed up in tandem with a positive funding rate—it's a very clear structure: longs are chasing higher prices, and every eight hours they’re paying for their positions. This isn’t a healthy rally; it’s crowd trading driven by emotion.
The strongest counter-evidence is this: if, following Trump, there are policy tailwinds for traditional U.S. stocks that beat expectations, this premium could be revalidated by new capital. But based on the current data, with the pattern of longs paying and chasing, they fear a period of sideways movement or a slow, grinding decline most—and time is their enemy.
The second-order effects are straightforward: longs that keep absorbing the carry will be crushed first by costs. Either they cut exposure, or they wait for a sudden sharp drop that triggers a chain reaction of liquidations. The market’s cost burden going forward will keep getting heavier.
If the price can strongly break above the recent high of 25.86, or if the funding rate rapidly turns negative, then my judgment would no longer hold.
With my current position, I’ll cut it in half; the remaining hard stop-loss is set at 24.5. We’ll see again once the funding rate turns negative.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #BMNR
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
The sentiment premium behind the Trump trade has already become overheated on this one. The price is being pushed up in tandem with a positive funding rate—it's a very clear structure: longs are chasing higher prices, and every eight hours they’re paying for their positions. This isn’t a healthy rally; it’s crowd trading driven by emotion.
The strongest counter-evidence is this: if, following Trump, there are policy tailwinds for traditional U.S. stocks that beat expectations, this premium could be revalidated by new capital. But based on the current data, with the pattern of longs paying and chasing, they fear a period of sideways movement or a slow, grinding decline most—and time is their enemy.
The second-order effects are straightforward: longs that keep absorbing the carry will be crushed first by costs. Either they cut exposure, or they wait for a sudden sharp drop that triggers a chain reaction of liquidations. The market’s cost burden going forward will keep getting heavier.
If the price can strongly break above the recent high of 25.86, or if the funding rate rapidly turns negative, then my judgment would no longer hold.
With my current position, I’ll cut it in half; the remaining hard stop-loss is set at 24.5. We’ll see again once the funding rate turns negative.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #BMNR
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?