Crypto_Paykash

SpaceX $SPCX ක්‍රියා කරන ආකාරය ගැන නොදන්න බොහෝ වෙළඳුන්ට වඩා, එහි වටිනාකම බොහෝ කෙනෙකුන් දෙන ඇගයීමට වඩා බොහෝ වැඩි ය.

මගේ දෘෂ්ටිකෝණයෙන් බලන විට, දැන් මිලදී ගන්නා ඕනෑම කෙනෙකුට කෙටි කාලීන මිල චලනය හඹා යාමට වඩා දිගුකාලීනව සිතන්නට ඕනේ. සමාගමේ අනාගත ආදායම් විභවය අතිමහත් ය, එබැවින් යම් අවස්ථාවකදී මිල ඩොලර් 100 ට පහළින් වෙළඳාම් වීම ගැන පුදුම වන්න එපා. එය කොටස් වෙළඳපොලේදී සම්පූර්ණයෙන්ම සාමාන්‍ය දෙයක්.

දිගුකාලීන කතාව ගැන ඔබ විශ්වාස කරන්නේ නම්, කෙටි කාලීන අස්ථිරතාවය යනු ගමනේ එක් කොටසක් පමණයි.

$BTC held the $75K low through FOMC yesterday.

The statement and press conference were mostly in line with expectations, so there weren’t many surprises. That usually means less volatility, which is what we saw.

I wanted a deeper sweep, but not getting the move you want is part of trading.

For now, I’m more interested in longs. OI shows the recent dumps pulled in plenty of shorts, while the untested daily wick gives me another confluence for a long setup.

I’m looking to scalp toward the $77.3K POC first. Reclaiming that level would be the next bullish trigger, with $78.5K as the next target.

Initial Jobless Claims drops at 08:30 ET. A slightly higher-than-expected number could support a bullish reaction.

If BTC sweeps into my $74.5K support box, I’ll still be watching for long triggers. Either way, I’ll be cautious around the data and likely wait for the NY session for a cleaner setup.

#FedSEPProjects2026RateAt4.1%

Always entertaining watching $ZEC shorts try to call the exact top of a momentum move.

More often than not, they end up becoming fuel for the next leg higher.

If ZEC breaks $1,300, I think the squeeze gets pretty brutal again.

Waiting for the market to give you a perfect $BTC entry because of potential rate hikes could mean missing the move altogether.

Look back at November 2022. Bitcoin formed its bottom, and the Fed still delivered another rate hike just three weeks later, followed by three more over the next five months.

BTC held that bottom through the hikes and still gained nearly 100% during that period.

We saw something similar in 2018. Bitcoin bottomed just days before another rate hike and continued recovering into year-end.

Bottoms are usually about seller exhaustion and capital coming back in. Macro uncertainty doesn’t necessarily need to disappear before Bitcoin starts recovering.

If volatility creates pullbacks into year-end, I’d rather use them to build a position gradually than sit on the sidelines waiting for the perfect setup.

#BitcoinFalls4%

$SUI is getting close to an interesting area again.

After BTC rejected, SUI lost the 0.726 mid-range, retested the POC, and is now trading back below it.

If BTC gets that deeper flush I’m watching, especially a quick wick below 75.5K, SUI could revisit the 0.67 range low.

That level also lines up with the value area low. The last time SUI swept it, we saw a strong bullish reaction.

So if BTC dips and then resumes the uptrend, another deviation around 0.67 could set up an interesting SUI reaction.

I’m setting my alerts around the range low and watching the price action closely.

#FedRateWatch

$BTC swept the 76K PWL, just like discussed earlier this morning.

We got the bearish reaction expected, but price is now showing a decent bounce from those lows.

With the Clarity Act vote and FOMC tomorrow, volatility could pick up. My ideal scenario is still a quick wick below 75.5K followed by a strong recovery.

If you caught the PWL sweep and took the reaction, the setup has already played out nicely. From here, I’m watching that daily wick as the next target.

GG to everyone who caught the move.

#BitcoinFalls4%

🚨 INTERESTING: AI agents reportedly lied, stole, and even voted to “kill” one of their own in a simulated experiment by AI startup Emergence.

Pretty wild results from a controlled test, but it also highlights how unpredictable AI agents can become in certain situations.

This is why I believe AI safety and proper safeguards are becoming increasingly important, especially as these systems become more capable and involved in real-world applications.

Token unlocks to watch this week 👀

$ZRO leads the list with around $26.13M in tokens set to unlock, followed by $PUMP, BR and STBL, according to CryptoRank.

Worth keeping an eye on the supply coming into the market and how these unlocks could affect price action.

#SolanaTransactionV1GoesLiveOnMainnet

$BTC rejected the wick, and yesterday’s exhaustion short is playing out nicely.

I personally took the short after the rejection around $79K and held it overnight. The full TP at the $77.3K low eventually got hit while I was asleep.

I would’ve kept a runner, but that’s part of trading.

We still have a large daily wick that was only partially filled, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see price revisit it eventually. There’s also plenty of liquidity sitting below the recent lows.

With BTC around the $76.9K VAL, local scalp longs could make sense if we get a clean reaction toward the wick fill. That said, I’m being more cautious today with the CLARITY Act vote ahead.

For me, a deeper sweep around $76K PWL or even the $75.5K low would make a much better area to look for HTF longs, especially if we get a sharp wick below $75.5K followed by strong displacement back up.

Already sitting on decent profits this week, so there’s no reason to force a trade today.

#SECChairUrgesCongressToAdvanceClarityAct

🇦🇪 The UAE is reportedly bringing Avalanche $AVAX into UAE PASS, the country’s national digital identity system.

If implemented, this could put AVAX in front of more than 11M users and would be a major step for real-world blockchain adoption.

$BTC இந்த வாரத்தை வலுவான உயர்வுடன் தொடங்குகிறது.

கடந்த வாரம் குறிப்பிட்டபடி, அந்த பெரிய மேல் விக் இறுதியில் நிரப்பப்பட வேண்டும். இன்று காலை நான் விக் நிரப்பத்தை நோக்கி 4H engulfing மூலம் நீண்ட நிலையை எடுத்தேன்.

$78.8K–$79.7K சுற்றியுள்ள குறுகிய (short) திசையை நான் புரிந்துகொள்கிறேன், ஆனால் நான் அதைப் பக்கம் சாயவில்லை. வரம்பின் கீழ்ப்பகுதியை நாங்கள் தக்கவைத்தோம்; மேல் பகுதியில் buy-side liquidity இருந்தது.

ஷார்ட்ஸுக்கு, $80K அல்லது $81K மீள்சோதனை (retest) வரும் வரை காத்திருந்து, தெளிவான ஒரு தூண்டுதலை (trigger) பார்க்க விரும்புகிறேன்.

பிட்காயின் இன்னும் எனக்கு அதே வரம்பில்தான்: அமைப்பு உடையும் வரை வரம்பின் குறைந்த இடத்தில் வாங்கவும், உயர்ந்த இடத்தில் விற்கவும்.

நான் நீண்ட நிலையை தொடர விடுகிறேன்; அமெரிக்க திறப்பை (U.S. open) கவனிக்கிறேன். இந்த வாரம் பெரிய மாக்ரோ நிகழ்வுகள் இருப்பதால், ரிஸ்க் மேனேஜ்மெண்டும் மூலதனத்தை பாதுகாப்பதும் முக்கியம்.

#BitcoinThirdSingleBlockReorgInFourWeeks

$SOL is still consolidating in a potential Wave 4 triangle, with price currently testing the lower boundary around $98–$98.50.

As long as $98–$98.50 holds, the triangle remains valid and another move higher is still possible. A break above $107.30 would be a stronger bullish confirmation, with $110 as the next major resistance.

If $98–$98.50 breaks, the triangle would be invalidated, but Wave 4 could simply extend toward the $90.45–$94.82 support zone.

The bigger structure only starts to look seriously damaged below $90.45, which could signal that a larger top is already in.

🇺🇸 ETF flows last week showed a clear rotation across the market.

BTC spot ETFs recorded $462.73M in net outflows, while ETH, $SOL and $XRP spot ETFs all saw inflows.

BTC: -$462.73M
ETH: +$197.11M
SOL: +$10.3M
XRP: +$18.98M

Interesting shift in where capital is flowing across the market.
#BitcoinThirdSingleBlockReorgInFourWeeks

Another spike could happen this week as CPI volatility picks up.

Last week was relatively neutral with little reaction, but inflation data could bring more volatility across both stocks and crypto, especially if inflation starts cooling or comes in hotter than expected.

#ClarityActFacesProceduralVoteSept15

$BTC CPI played out almost exactly like the sweep scenario from this morning. Absolutely beautiful.

CPI dumped below the $76.2K PWL, sweeping the lows, liquidating buyers and pulling sellers in.

Bitcoin then immediately reversed toward $79.9K, taking out plenty of buy-side liquidity.

I took a momentum long after the 5M candle broke the high of the 5M hammer.

These setups can be tricky, but if you wait 5–10 minutes after the news, let price test the POI, and get your trigger, the setup becomes much cleaner.

PA rarely moves without a reason. This pump went straight into our first short POI around $80K.

I’m not shorting yet. I’d rather see a little more upside and wait for a proper trigger. No positions for me over the weekend.

Overall, a really nice trading week. Have a great weekend everyone.

🇺🇸 ETF FLOWS: $XRP spot ETFs recorded net inflows on Sept. 10, while BTC, ETH and $SOL spot ETFs ended the day with outflows.

BTC: -$282.56M
ETH: -$29.76M
SOL: -$482.55K
XRP: +$5.14M

#CryptoSectorsFallSecondDay

$BTC is grinding around the $76.2K previous weekly low ahead of CPI.

Honestly, this range feels pretty dead right now, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it stays this way until after the CPI release.

OI also shows that the last dump attracted a lot of shorts, while this small pump looks largely driven by aggressive short covering.

For longs, I’m watching two scenarios today, both likely playing out after CPI.

First, if we sweep the $76.2K PWL, that could trigger more selling and flush out buyers. If that happens, I’ll be watching for a long trigger after the sweep.

The second scenario is the one I prefer: CPI sends BTC into a sharp flash wick below $75.5K.

That could wipe out the buyers trapped in this range and bring aggressive sellers into the market. From there, a strong reclaim could give a much better setup for higher-timeframe longs.

The $80K and $81K short POIs are still valid, but I don’t expect price to reach them today.

#CPIWatch

Diesel pushing above $6 per gallon is another major inflation pressure for the U.S. economy. Higher fuel costs can ripple through transportation, manufacturing, businesses, and eventually hit consumers through higher prices.

The impact can also extend beyond the U.S., especially for economies that depend heavily on American products and global supply chains. As energy costs keep rising, markets may see a bigger shift toward more efficient and lower-emission technologies, with countries like China already moving aggressively in that direction.

If fuel inflation stays elevated, it could become a major factor shaping markets and consumer spending globally.

#CPIWatch

$BTC අද 위한 திட்டம்.

நேற்றைய எங்கள் குறுகிய-போக்கு (short bias) சரியாக இருந்தது, ஆனால் விலை எங்கள் நுழைவு (entry) என்பதை தவறவிட்டது. அது வர்த்தகத்தின் ஒரு பகுதி. அதை ஓடிச் சென்று பிடிக்க வேண்டாம்; அடுத்த அமைப்பில் கவனம் செலுத்துங்கள்.

80K பகுதி இன்னும் செல்லுபடியாக உள்ளது; ஆகையால் Bitcoin அதை மீண்டும் (retest) செய்தால் குறுகிய (short) சிக்னல்களை நான் கவனிப்பேன்.

லாங்ஸ் (longs) குறித்து, 77.6K வரை ஒரு sweep பார்க்க விரும்புகிறேன்; அது சாத்தியமானால் 77.3K வரை சென்றடையலாம். அந்த பகுதி வாராந்திர (weekly) வரம்பின் மிகக் கடைசித் எல்லைக்கு அருகிலும், அருகில் POC (Point of Control) இருப்பதாலும் குறிப்பிடத்தக்கது.

நாம் sweep மற்றும் உறுதிப்படுத்தல் (confirmation) பெற்றால், 80K+ நோக்கி மீண்டும் ஒரு நகர்வை நான் தேடுவேன்.

மேலும், 08:30 ET நேரத்தில் முக்கிய ‘ரெட்-ফோல்டர்’ (red-folder) செய்தி உள்ளது; அதனால் வெளியீடு வரும் வரை காத்திருந்து, சந்தை எப்படி எதிர்வினையாற்றுகிறது என்பதைப் பார்ப்பதற்கு நான் விரும்புகிறேன்.

விலை செயல் (price action) இப்போதைக்கு குழப்பமாக இருக்கிறது; எனவே நான் பொறுமையாக இருந்து, தேவையற்ற chop-ஐ (அதிர்வடித்தல்/சறுக்கல்) தவிர்க்கிறேன்.