Aadi 11

Неудача Сената США по продвижению Закона о ясности во вторник оставляет криптоиндустрию в крупнейшей экономике мира без всеобъемлющей федеральной нормативной базы, а роли Комиссии по ценным бумагам и биржам (SEC) и Комиссии по торговле товарными фьючерсами (CFTC) окутаны неопределенностью.
«Настоящие проигравшие — это американская общественность и отечественная технологическая экосистема», — заявил Стефан Мюльбауэр, глава отдела по связям с государственными органами США в компании CertiK по блокчейн-безопасности. По его словам, победители — зарубежные криптохабы, операторы серого рынка и международные юрисдикции вроде Азии и Европы, которые быстро расширяют свою долю рынка на фоне четких, устоявшихся правил.#ParadigmDisclosesZECHolding

Open-source artificial intelligence is making it easier for hackers to hide malicious code on blockchains, opening a new front in a crypto industry already grappling with rising cybercrime.

Instances of malware instructions written into on-chain transactions and smart contracts are up 440% in less than a year, averaging 11 cases per day, blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis said in a report published on Thursday. Such cases averaged two per day prior to the release in the middle of last year of powerful Chinese open-source AI models with no restrictions on generating malicious code, according to the report.
A malware attack uses malicious software planted on a computer or network to steal information, passwords or funds. In the attacks documented by the report, hackers use a blockchain to leave instructions for that software, telling it where to send information, a technique known as "blockchain dead drop". This can make an attack harder to stop because information recorded on a blockchain cannot be easily removed.
State-backed groups — including those linked to North Korea and Iran — now account for the majority of this activity, the report said.
The findings add to evidence of generative AI contributing to a boom in cyber threats, by spotting more software vulnerabilities and allowing cybercriminals to carry out more attacks. In crypto, the number of hacks rose roughly 150% to 207 in the first half of the year, according to blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs.
Blockchains are typically not involved in the initial infection of a machine, which often happens through conventional means such as supply-chain attacks or malicious downloads, Eric Jardine, head of research at Chainalysis, said in response to questions over email. The firm has not tracked how many attacks were successful, or how much money was lost.
Hiding malware on a blockchain is not new, Chainalysis said, but powerful new open-source AI models are allowing hackers to carry out attacks on a larger scale, while growing involvement by state actors is making them more sophisticated.
Worsening the threat, open-source AI models can be run independently, allowing hackers to modify them or remove safeguards against cybercrime.
"This gives malicious developers greater control over the model and more privacy," said Vitaly Kamluk, founder of cybersecurity consultancy TitanHex.
By contrast, companies such as OpenAI and Alphabet Inc.'s Google can block access to their AI services when they detect abuse.
The transparency of blockchains cuts both ways, though. Every update attackers post is permanently recorded, letting investigators map their infrastructure and connect campaigns that would otherwise look unrelated, according to Chainalysis.#USWeeklyJoblessClaimsFallTo196K #ParadigmDisclosesZECHolding

In focus today
In the US, the main event of the week will be the FOMC meeting tonight. Previously this week we revised our call now expecting a 25bp rate hike at the meeting. Given the current market pricing (90% probability of a hike), and the fact that we have long argued rate hikes are eventually on the horizon in any case, tightening now likely represents the path of least resistance. We do not think the decision is a completely done deal, and we believe there will be 2-3 dissenters in favour of a hold. We still expect the FOMC to publish its updated economic projections and 'dots', even if Warsh opts out from submitting his personal views again. In the afternoon US retail sales for August is released too.
In the UK
The August CPI inflation print will be released today. Headline inflation is expected to rise from 2.9% in July, driven by motor fuel and airfares. Food prices have followed a normal seasonal pattern over the summer, though higher energy prices pose an upside risk. Services inflation has been trending lower alongside wage growth. It stood at 3.4% in July and remains the key focus for the MPC, with the hawkish minority viewing it as too sticky to justify keeping rates on hold.
In Sweden
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) for August is published. The July outcome was strong: unemployment fell to 8.6% while labour force participation increased. Our forecast is that the labour market will continue to improve, but it is worth keeping in mind that the Labour Force Survey is volatile and that individual monthly outcomes should be interpreted with caution.
Economic and market news
What happened yesterday
In the euro area, the German ZEW index in September showed a markedly better assessment of the current situation, but expectations for future growth disappointed. The assessment of the current situation rose to -47.1 (cons: -52.1, prior: -61.1), which is the highest level in three and a half years. The rebound in German growth is especially due to the significant fiscal easing and a rise in manufacturing orders. However, expectations for future growth disappointed, as they remained at 34.7 (cons: 40.0, prior: 34.2). This likely reflects the recent tightening in financial conditions and higher energy costs. The impact of these factors will likely take some months to affect growth, given the lag lengths in German retail energy and rate pricing, which the September ZEW survey reflects well.
In the UK
payroll employment fell by 26,000 in August, compared with consensus expectations of a 5,000 decline, while revisions to June and July payrolls also pointed lower. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9% in July, in line with expectations, and average weekly earnings rose by 3.9%, also matching consensus and marking the softest reading since the three months to February. Regular earnings growth averaged 6.3% in the public sector and 2.9% in the private sector, slightly above the 2.8% expected. Overall, this is another dovish data signal for the Bank of England, and the FX market appeared to read it that way, with GBP weaker.
Equities:
Equities closed lower across regions yesterday as oil gained another 4%. Oil has now risen in ten of the past eleven sessions, advancing almost 30% over that period. Unsurprisingly, Energy was the only sector in positive territory.
The more revealing signal came from the rest of the market. Excluding Energy, this was not a conventional defensive rotation. Instead, the selling was concentrated in the consumer complex, with consumer discretionary leading the decline but consumer staples also under pressure. Investors increasingly view consumers as the main casualty of higher energy prices and are reducing exposure accordingly. Despite the broader equity market still being up more than 10% year to date, consumer discretionary is the worst performing sector and is down more than 5%. Importantly, neither consumer discretionary nor consumer staples has experienced the largest earnings downgrades. The underperformance therefore reflects investors demanding a higher risk premium in the consumer sectors rather than merely responding to weaker earnings estimates.
Oil is easing from its highs this morning, supporting Asian equities, while European and US futures are marginally higher.
FI and FX:
Broad USD remained on a strong footing yesterday and EUR/USD declined modestly, as risk sentiment continued to sour. Safe-haven CHF also rose, while cyclicals NZD, SEK and AUD underperformed. USD/JPY has retraced some of its recent decline and traded up to 155 yesterday as markets await further clues from both the Fed tonight, and Bank of Japan on Friday. The EUR swap curve twist steepened yesterday, as pressure remains on the long end with global long-end yields continuing to set new decade highs. All focus will be on the FOMC meeting later this evening.
#FedRateWatch
#ClarityActOddsHalveOnPolymarket

$XRP XRP расширяет прибыль во вторник после роста на 6% в предыдущий день.
$XLM XLM торгуется выше $0.195 после скачка более чем на 8% в понедельник.
Укрепление показателей деривативов поддерживает дальнейший рост как у XRP, так и у XLM.
Перспективы Ripple и Stellar: продолжение роста благодаря поддержке деривативов
Ripple (XRP) и Stellar (XLM) продолжают наращивать прибыль во вторник после того, как в предыдущий день они прибавили более 6% и 8% соответственно. Кроме того, улучшение показателей по деривативам формирует бычий настрой, указывая на дальнейший рост обеих альткоинов.

Золото остается уязвимым перед встречей ФРС
$XAU Несмотря на последующий рост, золото по-прежнему уязвимо к дальнейшему снижению на фоне эскалации геополитической напряженности в Персидском заливе, растущих опасений по поводу инфляции, подогреваемой высокими ценами на нефть, и ястребиных ожиданий относительно перспектив политики ФРС.
В понедельник «йеменская поддерживаемая Ираном военизированная группировка хуситы начала новое нападение на Саудовскую Аравию после того, как Эр-Рияд обвинил поддерживаемых Ираном боевиков в Ираке в нападении на нефтепровод королевства, соединяющий восток и запад. Также страны Персидского залива отложили запланированные переговоры с Ираном», — сообщает Reuters.

Никто не может с уверенностью сказать, что будет в следующие 24 часа, но трейдеры по всем классам активов рассматривают этот период как решающий.
Редкое, единое предупреждение от людей, создающих самую мощную в мире технологию, изменило то, как сейчас читают грядущие часы
Предупреждение, которого никто не ожидал
Риск, лежащий в основе всего этого, исходит изнутри самой отрасли. Генеральный директор Anthropic опубликовал в субботу эссе объемом примерно 3 800 слов под названием "Мы должны выдержать темп форпоста" (We Must Pace the Frontier), утверждая, что отрасли необходимо намеренно замедлить, как быстро улучшаются возможности моделей.

Крупный финтех-игрок Revolut передал конфиденциальные данные клиентов, включая копии паспортов и полные истории транзакций Bitcoin, злоумышленнику после того, как поверил мошенническому запросу, замаскированному под законное обращение со стороны правительства.
Согласно уведомлению клиентам, которое распространил крипто-следователь ZachXBT, Revolut получил запрос на предоставление информации о клиентах, выглядевший так, будто он поступил от государственного ведомства; запрос был отправлен с неавторизованного адреса электронной почты, используя официальный домен ведомства.
Поскольку сообщение содержало действительные учетные данные для аутентификации домена, Revolut обработал его, исходя из предположения, что оно было подлинным.

Цена на золото торгуется с небольшим снижением примерно на $4 330 в начале недели денежно-кредитной политики ФРС.
ФРС ожидается с высокой вероятностью повысить процентные ставки в среду.
Президент США Дональд Трамп, похоже, смиряется с более высокими процентными ставками.
$XAUT Золото демонстрирует сдержанную динамику в начале недели денежно-кредитной политики Федеральной резервной системы (ФРС) примерно на $4 330. Ожидания по ставке ФРС во многом повлияли на прошлую неделю после выхода горячих данных по индексу цен производителей (PPI) и индексу потребительских цен (CPI) в США за август.