JellyCrypto

TL;DR :
The Iran war is getting serious. And now we can no longer ignore the elephant in the room.
Current time of writing: July 19, 6 PM KST.
My daily life is completely peaceful, but the Middle East is the exact opposite.
I’ve also seen multiple articles over the weekend about Hynix leverage blowing up.
The scale isn’t small, and with worsening conditions like this, it could significantly impact oil prices and prolong the war — I don’t see this as a very positive influence for the price of BTC.
However, after the July 17 US options expiry, Bitcoin dipped slightly but has already recovered to pre-expiry levels.
There are also some highly abnormal signals that I wanted to write about.
The market setupWhale contracts (the elephant)Order bookSpot/futures CVDExpected value, and approach.
1. Current Market Setup
This is the chart I actually posted in last week’s article.
(For the English viewer, the top says upper orders 66-70k; the bottom liquidity stands at 57-54, valid until July 24)
It was just a snapshot of that day’s situation, but a similar setup has been in the market for over 2 weeks now. And because it’s coming with short-dated expiries, it carries more credibility.
I try to avoid subjective price opinions as much as possible, but if the downside setup plays out, we could realistically visit 57~54k or even slightly lower.
The thing about downside setups is that even if it doesn’t trigger, the party who initiated these contracts doesn’t lose much (short put 57k + long put 54k -or more if shit show starts).
2. Whale Positions
Next is the whale contracts I examined. As someone who digs into options market data quite seriously… let’s just take a look.
I think it started coming in around Wednesday.
There are now 27,000 contracts stacked on the July 31 70k-72k call spread.
(1 contract = 1 BTC, so this is equivalent to 27,000 BTC.)
When it was only 2,000 contracts at first, I thought it might be hedging and brushed it off. But now, after 3-4 days, at 27,000 contracts… we can no longer ignore the elephant in the room.
I’m increasingly leaning toward this being a directional bet rather than hedging.
So, does that mean we should buy here?
3. Orderbook Liquidity
Before judging that, let’s check the divergence between futures and spot markets.
Coinglass
(Spot / Futures)
The temperature difference between the spot and futures is quite significant.
We can’t take this as an absolute indicator, but for now it looks like the market is being pulled up by futures order book support (63 → 64.9 over the weekend).
4. CVD
Looking at BTC CVD, this divergence is somewhat confirmed.
Futures CVD shows net buying, but spot CVD… well, it’s showing a different picture from futures.
5. Expected Value and Approach
First, a lot of people misunderstand this — I’m just a trader. What I write in these articles is my personal opinion, not a financial advice.
Given the gravity of the spread, think we’ll go above 70k. Considering the size, 73k~74k is definitely possible.
However, I’m not going to chase an upside play targeting 70k right now.
The risk factors I mentioned earlier are too large compared to the expected reward.
As someone who mainly plays options,
if time decays and the price drops, the chances of my position profiting decreases.However, the actual capital deployed would also decrease, reducing the burden.
Therefore, instead of taking a position immediately,
if we rise from the current price level, I’m willing to gladly give up the opportunity.
(At the time of writing, BTC trades at 64.5k)
However,
if the downside setup materializes within next week’s expiry, I’ll be happy to follow the whale position.
The article ended up being long today. Thanks for reading.
FYI, Jelly's the name of my dog.
I quit my job to begin my startup, which didn't work out I guess.
And here I am.

Кратко: вероятность принятия Закона о ясности в данный момент выглядит довольно низкой. Но для кого-то это может стать возможностью.
Прежде чем погрузиться в детали, вот вводная информация.
Согласно Polymarket, шансы на то, что Закон о ясности будет подписан в 2026 году, упали до 31% (недавно снижение составило 34%). Тренд явно идет вниз.
Когда время подходит к концу, вероятности на рынке прогнозов естественным образом затухают — примерно так же, как происходит theta decay в опционах. Как только начнётся августовская пауза, это затухание может ускориться.
Однако у рынков прогнозов нет модели ценообразования в стиле Black-Scholes. В фазах крайнего страха цены могут уходить существенно ниже реальной вероятности из‑за дисбалансов ликвидности.