Crypto_Paykash
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Crypto_Paykash
Crypto enthusiast | Exploring blockchain and digital assets | Content creator | Writer | CMC KOL.
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$BTC has never recorded three straight green monthly closes during a bear market year (2014, 2018, 2022).
With March and April already closing in the green, history suggests May could break the streak and turn red if the pattern holds.
#TrumpSaysIranConflictHasEnded
With March and April already closing in the green, history suggests May could break the streak and turn red if the pattern holds.
#TrumpSaysIranConflictHasEnded
One of my favorite short setups just played out on $BTC .
It’s called "The Overshoot."
What makes this setup so reliable is that it forms during an existing downtrend but briefly creates enough bullish momentum to convince traders the trend has flipped.
BTC first confirmed the downtrend with a lower high at B, followed by a lower low at C.
From there, price bounced, held a higher low at D, and then broke above the most recent swing high. At that point, it looked like a new uptrend was starting.
That’s where the trap begins.
As price pushes toward E, breakout traders pile into longs while short sellers rush to cover. If price also takes out the previous lower high at B, it grabs even more liquidity and makes the move look even stronger.
The sweep above B isn't the key part. What really matters is that everyone buying the breakout is relying on D to hold.
Even with the breakout, the bigger downtrend hasn't changed. Price has simply stretched higher before continuing in the original direction.
That makes D the most important level.
Once price rejects from E and falls back below D, the bullish structure breaks down. The breakout longs get trapped, their stop losses fuel more selling, and the downtrend resumes.
From there, price naturally rotates back toward C, the previous swing low the rally was trying to leave behind.
That’s exactly what BTC just did.
Price rallied into the previous lower-high area around 65.5K, got rejected, lost support near 63.7K, and dropped straight back toward the prior low around 62.6K.
The pattern may look complex at first, but the idea is simple.
A downtrend creates a convincing bullish bounce, traders chase the breakout, and once that support fails, their exits provide the momentum for the downtrend to continue.
It’s called "The Overshoot."
What makes this setup so reliable is that it forms during an existing downtrend but briefly creates enough bullish momentum to convince traders the trend has flipped.
BTC first confirmed the downtrend with a lower high at B, followed by a lower low at C.
From there, price bounced, held a higher low at D, and then broke above the most recent swing high. At that point, it looked like a new uptrend was starting.
That’s where the trap begins.
As price pushes toward E, breakout traders pile into longs while short sellers rush to cover. If price also takes out the previous lower high at B, it grabs even more liquidity and makes the move look even stronger.
The sweep above B isn't the key part. What really matters is that everyone buying the breakout is relying on D to hold.
Even with the breakout, the bigger downtrend hasn't changed. Price has simply stretched higher before continuing in the original direction.
That makes D the most important level.
Once price rejects from E and falls back below D, the bullish structure breaks down. The breakout longs get trapped, their stop losses fuel more selling, and the downtrend resumes.
From there, price naturally rotates back toward C, the previous swing low the rally was trying to leave behind.
That’s exactly what BTC just did.
Price rallied into the previous lower-high area around 65.5K, got rejected, lost support near 63.7K, and dropped straight back toward the prior low around 62.6K.
The pattern may look complex at first, but the idea is simple.
A downtrend creates a convincing bullish bounce, traders chase the breakout, and once that support fails, their exits provide the momentum for the downtrend to continue.
$NEAR Elliott Wave Analysis
The short-term trend remains bearish as long as price stays below the key resistance at $2.12 (green line).
Unless bulls reclaim that level, the path of least resistance continues to favor the downside.
#KospiHitsIntradayRecordUp17%
The short-term trend remains bearish as long as price stays below the key resistance at $2.12 (green line).
Unless bulls reclaim that level, the path of least resistance continues to favor the downside.
#KospiHitsIntradayRecordUp17%
Yesterday, I said those calling for 40K $BTC may be expecting too much.
One reason is Long-Term Holder Supply, which has now reached a record 16.65M BTC, about 83% of the circulating supply.
That means more Bitcoin than ever is sitting with investors who have shown little interest in selling, despite months of market weakness.
For BTC to reach those extreme bear market targets, a significant amount of that supply would need to return to the market. So far, it hasn't.
I still don't think BTC has found its final bottom, but this is why I expect any eventual low to be much higher than the extreme numbers some are predicting.
As Bitcoin matures, more supply is being held for the long term, making each cycle's downside less severe.
One reason is Long-Term Holder Supply, which has now reached a record 16.65M BTC, about 83% of the circulating supply.
That means more Bitcoin than ever is sitting with investors who have shown little interest in selling, despite months of market weakness.
For BTC to reach those extreme bear market targets, a significant amount of that supply would need to return to the market. So far, it hasn't.
I still don't think BTC has found its final bottom, but this is why I expect any eventual low to be much higher than the extreme numbers some are predicting.
As Bitcoin matures, more supply is being held for the long term, making each cycle's downside less severe.
Проверено
🚨 JUST IN: $Aave is streamlining its ecosystem by phasing out 50 low-usage asset reserves and winding down deployments across Sonic, Scroll, zkSync, Metis, Soneium, and Aptos.
According to founder Stani Kulechov, the changes impact approximately $98.1M in supplied assets and $15.6M in outstanding debt.
According to founder Stani Kulechov, the changes impact approximately $98.1M in supplied assets and $15.6M in outstanding debt.
The calls for 40K $BTC look a bit premature.
You can be bearish without assuming the most extreme downside target is the most likely outcome.
Before Bitcoin even has a realistic shot at $40K, it would need to lose the $48K–$54K region, one of the strongest historical support zones on the chart. That area has acted as a major battleground for buyers and sellers over the past five years.
As long as that support remains intact across higher timeframes, there's no clear technical path to $40K.
Could BTC see more downside? Absolutely.
But a move to $40K would require significantly more structural breakdown than the market has shown so far, and expecting all of that to happen within the next three months seems unlikely.
#FOMCWatching
You can be bearish without assuming the most extreme downside target is the most likely outcome.
Before Bitcoin even has a realistic shot at $40K, it would need to lose the $48K–$54K region, one of the strongest historical support zones on the chart. That area has acted as a major battleground for buyers and sellers over the past five years.
As long as that support remains intact across higher timeframes, there's no clear technical path to $40K.
Could BTC see more downside? Absolutely.
But a move to $40K would require significantly more structural breakdown than the market has shown so far, and expecting all of that to happen within the next three months seems unlikely.
#FOMCWatching
$ZEC has now completed the move into the 450 liquidity zone after confirming a Significant Break of Structure (SBOS) below $475.
Over the past two weeks, this framework has accurately mapped every major liquidity pivot, from 530 down to $450.
The pattern has been consistent:
$530 broke, sending price toward $475.
$475 broke, triggering the flush into $450.
That's roughly a 15% decline in just a few days.
The reason an SBOS matters more than a simple support break is because it signals a broader shift in market structure:
Multiple timeframes lose key support.
Former support turns into resistance.
Trapped buyers begin reducing risk.
Price seeks liquidity at the next major demand zone.
With $450 now acting as a key liquidity area, bulls need to defend this level. Losing it could open the door to another 10% move lower as price searches for the next area of demand.
#FOMCWatching
Over the past two weeks, this framework has accurately mapped every major liquidity pivot, from 530 down to $450.
The pattern has been consistent:
$530 broke, sending price toward $475.
$475 broke, triggering the flush into $450.
That's roughly a 15% decline in just a few days.
The reason an SBOS matters more than a simple support break is because it signals a broader shift in market structure:
Multiple timeframes lose key support.
Former support turns into resistance.
Trapped buyers begin reducing risk.
Price seeks liquidity at the next major demand zone.
With $450 now acting as a key liquidity area, bulls need to defend this level. Losing it could open the door to another 10% move lower as price searches for the next area of demand.
#FOMCWatching
Частичная правда
🚨 UPDATE: According to CryptoRank, BEAT leads this week's token unlocks with $81.66M worth of tokens set to be released. It's followed by $SUI, BTW, $ENA, EIGEN, ZAMA, and KITE.
The biggest clue that a deeper $BTC pullback was coming was the change in price behavior.
Earlier long-liquidation flushes within this range were consistently absorbed. Open Interest reset, support held, and BTC went on to print new highs.
This time was different.
Longs were liquidated and OI dropped, but instead of bouncing back strongly, BTC only managed a lower high before losing the 63.7K level.
The liquidations themselves weren't the key signal.
The real warning was that price couldn't recover after the leverage had been flushed out.
Trading doesn't always have to be complicated.
Sometimes, it's simply about recognizing when the pattern changes.
Earlier long-liquidation flushes within this range were consistently absorbed. Open Interest reset, support held, and BTC went on to print new highs.
This time was different.
Longs were liquidated and OI dropped, but instead of bouncing back strongly, BTC only managed a lower high before losing the 63.7K level.
The liquidations themselves weren't the key signal.
The real warning was that price couldn't recover after the leverage had been flushed out.
Trading doesn't always have to be complicated.
Sometimes, it's simply about recognizing when the pattern changes.
It's time for $ZEC to show its hand.
Price reacted well from the $470–480 liquidity zone, and that bounce has now established the current medium-to-high timeframe swing pivot.
For the bullish structure to strengthen, I'd like to see ZEC hold above $480, print a higher low, and then reclaim $510. That would be the confirmation I'd look for before considering long positions with lower risk.
If the $470–480 region fails to hold, it would signal a significant break of market structure across multiple timeframes.
In that scenario, the macro swing low is likely not in yet, and a move toward the $450 area becomes the more probable outcome.
Price reacted well from the $470–480 liquidity zone, and that bounce has now established the current medium-to-high timeframe swing pivot.
For the bullish structure to strengthen, I'd like to see ZEC hold above $480, print a higher low, and then reclaim $510. That would be the confirmation I'd look for before considering long positions with lower risk.
If the $470–480 region fails to hold, it would signal a significant break of market structure across multiple timeframes.
In that scenario, the macro swing low is likely not in yet, and a move toward the $450 area becomes the more probable outcome.
$BTC is stacking liquidity on both sides of the current range, which is why I'm staying patient for now.
If price reclaims 65.5K, the next likely target is the cluster of roughly $500M in short liquidity sitting between 66K and 66.8K.
On the flip side, losing 64.2K could open the door for a sweep of the $200M in long liquidity below.
Until either level gives way, Bitcoin is still trading in a range.
Expect more sideways price action until the market clears one side and finds its next direction.
If price reclaims 65.5K, the next likely target is the cluster of roughly $500M in short liquidity sitting between 66K and 66.8K.
On the flip side, losing 64.2K could open the door for a sweep of the $200M in long liquidity below.
Until either level gives way, Bitcoin is still trading in a range.
Expect more sideways price action until the market clears one side and finds its next direction.
🇺🇸 ETF Flows: Spot crypto ETFs ended the week with net inflows across the board.
• BTC: +33.79M
• ETH: +103.9M
• $SOL: +7.2M
• $XRP: +8.15M
Capital is continuing to flow into the market, with Ethereum leading the way this week.
Are we starting to see the next wave of momentum, or is this just another short-term bounce?
• BTC: +33.79M
• ETH: +103.9M
• $SOL: +7.2M
• $XRP: +8.15M
Capital is continuing to flow into the market, with Ethereum leading the way this week.
Are we starting to see the next wave of momentum, or is this just another short-term bounce?
Частичная правда
This week's FOMC meeting could be a major catalyst for $BTC.
Over the past year, 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings have been followed by a notable pullback, with Bitcoin dropping around 10% on average over the following week.
We're also trading in a similar price region to last month's meeting, when BTC was around 66K before falling roughly 12% to 58K.
Of course, history doesn't always repeat itself. The May meeting broke the pattern, with Bitcoin rallying instead of selling off.
Still, an 8 out of 9 track record is hard to ignore.
I'll be watching 61K closely. If it holds, BTC could stay within its current range. If it doesn't, another test of the cycle lows becomes much more likely.
The reaction after this FOMC meeting should give us a much clearer picture of what's next.
Over the past year, 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings have been followed by a notable pullback, with Bitcoin dropping around 10% on average over the following week.
We're also trading in a similar price region to last month's meeting, when BTC was around 66K before falling roughly 12% to 58K.
Of course, history doesn't always repeat itself. The May meeting broke the pattern, with Bitcoin rallying instead of selling off.
Still, an 8 out of 9 track record is hard to ignore.
I'll be watching 61K closely. If it holds, BTC could stay within its current range. If it doesn't, another test of the cycle lows becomes much more likely.
The reaction after this FOMC meeting should give us a much clearer picture of what's next.
$ZEC has now broken cleanly below the 500 level.
This was the scenario I was watching for, with a move back into the 400s becoming increasingly likely once the key 520 support gave way.
The next level I'm watching is the 470–480 liquidity zone. I'd like to see buyers defend this area to avoid a deeper pullback.
480 was the previous breakout level that helped fuel the rally above 540, so it's still one of the strongest areas for bulls to regain control.
From a higher-timeframe perspective, this still looks like a healthy higher low following a strong impulsive move higher.
The next week should provide more clarity on whether this is simply a liquidity reset before another leg up or the beginning of a deeper correction through the 400s.
For now, I still lean bullish on the broader trend, but I want to see how price reacts around 470–480. If that area holds, it could confirm the macro higher-low structure remains intact.
This was the scenario I was watching for, with a move back into the 400s becoming increasingly likely once the key 520 support gave way.
The next level I'm watching is the 470–480 liquidity zone. I'd like to see buyers defend this area to avoid a deeper pullback.
480 was the previous breakout level that helped fuel the rally above 540, so it's still one of the strongest areas for bulls to regain control.
From a higher-timeframe perspective, this still looks like a healthy higher low following a strong impulsive move higher.
The next week should provide more clarity on whether this is simply a liquidity reset before another leg up or the beginning of a deeper correction through the 400s.
For now, I still lean bullish on the broader trend, but I want to see how price reacts around 470–480. If that area holds, it could confirm the macro higher-low structure remains intact.
I'm watching closely for a possible liquidity flush on $BTC here.
Price has now printed what looks like a higher low around 64.5K, right on the rising trendline that's been supporting every higher low since the recent bottom.
That also lines up with a potential compound breakdown setup at the same key level.
As long as the trendline and horizontal support remain intact, I still expect another push toward the range highs around 67K.
If both supports give way, I'd look for a move back into the 63.5K area to sweep liquidity before the next directional move.
This compound breakdown pattern has played out consistently throughout the current range, making this one of the most important structures to watch right now.
Price has now printed what looks like a higher low around 64.5K, right on the rising trendline that's been supporting every higher low since the recent bottom.
That also lines up with a potential compound breakdown setup at the same key level.
As long as the trendline and horizontal support remain intact, I still expect another push toward the range highs around 67K.
If both supports give way, I'd look for a move back into the 63.5K area to sweep liquidity before the next directional move.
This compound breakdown pattern has played out consistently throughout the current range, making this one of the most important structures to watch right now.
$ETH is testing a key Q3 resistance zone after staging a three-wave recovery from its June low.
As long as price stays below $2,226, the broader bearish outlook remains intact. A decisive break above that level would be the first sign that the current market structure may be shifting.
As long as price stays below $2,226, the broader bearish outlook remains intact. A decisive break above that level would be the first sign that the current market structure may be shifting.
$ZEC is trying to avoid a deeper breakdown by consolidating above the 500 liquidity pivot.
That level was my downside target after losing 520, which is why I opened a low-leverage short as a hedge while keeping my long from 425.
So far, there are early signs ZEC could be forming a macro higher low, although I still think a move below 500 is possible before a stronger recovery.
A reclaim of 530 would shift the chart back to neutral, while a break above 550 would invalidate the current bearish structure. That's where I'd close the hedge and start adding to my long position again.
For now, I'm staying patient. The bigger picture is a potential breakout above 620, but the chart still needs to prove this pullback is just a higher low. If 500 fails, I'll likely exit the remaining long and wait for a better setup.
That level was my downside target after losing 520, which is why I opened a low-leverage short as a hedge while keeping my long from 425.
So far, there are early signs ZEC could be forming a macro higher low, although I still think a move below 500 is possible before a stronger recovery.
A reclaim of 530 would shift the chart back to neutral, while a break above 550 would invalidate the current bearish structure. That's where I'd close the hedge and start adding to my long position again.
For now, I'm staying patient. The bigger picture is a potential breakout above 620, but the chart still needs to prove this pullback is just a higher low. If 500 fails, I'll likely exit the remaining long and wait for a better setup.
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