SEPTEMBER FOMC — WHAT WILL THE FED DO NEXT?
The September FOMC decision has become one of the biggest macro catalysts for global markets. August core CPI rose 0.3% month over month and 2.4% year over year, while headline CPI increased 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY.
A RATE HIKE IS NOW HEAVILY PRICED IN
Ahead of today’s decision, markets are pricing roughly a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike. Reuters also reported that 85% of economists surveyed expected a quarter-point increase, while some major banks now see another hike later in 2026.
WHAT COULD IT MEAN FOR BTC, TECH & GOLD?
My view is that the immediate reaction may depend less on the 25bp move itself and more on what the Fed signals next. A hike that is already fully priced in could create a “sell the rumor, buy the news” reaction if future tightening looks limited.
But if the Fed signals that inflation requires a longer tightening cycle, higher yields and a stronger dollar could increase pressure on BTC and growth-sensitive technology stocks. Gold could also face short-term pressure from higher real yields, although safe-haven demand may complicate the reaction.
MY KEY TAKEAWAY
I’m watching the forward guidance and dot plot more closely than the 25bp headline. One hike is one event; the path afterward determines the bigger market story.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Do your own research and trade responsibly.
#FedRateWatch #Bitcoin #FOMC #Fed #CryptoMarket
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The September FOMC decision has become one of the biggest macro catalysts for global markets. August core CPI rose 0.3% month over month and 2.4% year over year, while headline CPI increased 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY.
A RATE HIKE IS NOW HEAVILY PRICED IN
Ahead of today’s decision, markets are pricing roughly a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike. Reuters also reported that 85% of economists surveyed expected a quarter-point increase, while some major banks now see another hike later in 2026.
WHAT COULD IT MEAN FOR BTC, TECH & GOLD?
My view is that the immediate reaction may depend less on the 25bp move itself and more on what the Fed signals next. A hike that is already fully priced in could create a “sell the rumor, buy the news” reaction if future tightening looks limited.
But if the Fed signals that inflation requires a longer tightening cycle, higher yields and a stronger dollar could increase pressure on BTC and growth-sensitive technology stocks. Gold could also face short-term pressure from higher real yields, although safe-haven demand may complicate the reaction.
MY KEY TAKEAWAY
I’m watching the forward guidance and dot plot more closely than the 25bp headline. One hike is one event; the path afterward determines the bigger market story.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Do your own research and trade responsibly.
#FedRateWatch #Bitcoin #FOMC #Fed #CryptoMarket
$BTC $ETH $SOL
