🔴 HIGH IMPACT — Thursday September 17 Initial Jobless Claims 📅 8:30 AM ET · Prev: 187K Morning after the FOMC — the market will still be processing the decision. Any claims surprise amplifies or contradicts Wednesday's message. 💼 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 📅 8:30 AM ET · Prev: -7.8 Manufacturing has been in contraction — a further drop confirms the economy is slowing even as the Fed potentially hikes. Stagflation signal. 🏭
🔴 HIGH IMPACT — Tuesday September 15 FOMC Meeting Day 1 📅 No release — internal deliberations The Fed convenes behind closed doors. Rate hike probability going in at 85%. Warsh and the committee review all data — CPI, PPI, NFP, PCE. The quiet period continues. No leaks, no speeches. Markets hold their breath. 🤫 Retail Sales August 📅 8:30 AM ET · Prev: -0.4% First major data release of the week — dropped hours before the Fed begins deliberating. Strong retail sales = consumer spending holding = Fed more comfortable hiking. Weak = economy slowing = hold argument gains. Sets the mood for Wednesday. 🛍️
🌡️ CPI — i kaʻa maikaʻi a me ka ʻōlelo aʻo hūnā Nānā ʻoluʻolu nā helu poʻo. Ua puka ʻo CPI ma 3.4% YoY — e like me ka mea i manaʻo ʻia, ʻaʻole i loli mai Iulai. Ua iho ka Core CPI i 2.4% YoY — ka haʻahaʻa loa mai Pepeluali 2026. ʻO ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai i kāpae ʻia nā meaʻai a me ka ikehu ke hoʻokokoke nei i ka pahuhopu 2% a ka Fed. He holomua maoli kēlā a ua ʻike ka mākeke — ua hāʻule mua $BTC a laila ua hoʻi aʻe ma luna o $77,000 i loko o kēlā hola hoʻokahi. 👀 Akā, ʻo kēia ka mea ʻaʻole e haʻi aku ka hapa nui o nā pou. Ua puka ka core CPI o kēlā mahina ma 0.3% — ma luna o ka kuʻikahi 0.2%. Loaʻa kēlā me kēia wānana a nā mea kālailai ma waena o 0.16% a me 0.24%. Ua puka maoli ma 0.29% — lanakila i ka laulā wānana a pau. Ma ke ʻano o ka 3.5% makahiki — ʻoi aku ma mua o ka pahuhopu a ka Fed. ʻO Shelter, airfares, education, a me used cars nā mea i alakaʻi i ka piʻi wikiwiki ʻana. ʻAʻohe pilikia ka helu makahiki. ʻAʻole like kēlā me ka helu mahina. 🧠 ✅ CPI YoY: 3.4% — like me ka wānana ✅ Core CPI YoY: 2.4% — haʻahaʻa loa mai Pepeluali, hoʻokokoke i ka pahuhopu 2% ⚠️ Core CPI MoM: 0.3% — ma luna o 0.2% kuʻikahi, lanakila i ka laulā wānana a pau ⚠️ Wā holo makahiki o kēlā mahina: 3.5% — ʻaʻole kūlike me ka pahuhopu 2% 🏠 Shelter, airfares, education: ke piʻi wikiwiki nei nā mea a pau i kēia mahina
🏭 PPI — piipeline ya wela L’orù tiwa̍t CPI — PPI ṣubú, kò sí lẹ́wa. PPI gòkè 0.4% MoM — ní àbáyọ̀ ju 0.0% tí ó dúró lásẹ́yìn oṣù kọjá. PPI ọdọọdún pọ̀ sí 5.4% YoY láti 4.8% ní July. Ẹ̀rù owó agbára gòkè 4.2% nínú oṣù — nítorí ìdíje Brent crude tí ó tún gòkè padà ju $111/garawa lọ láti ìgbà ìkọlù tuntun Houthi lórí amáyédẹrùn Saudi. Pipeline náà ń jóná. Ohun tí ó farahàn nínú PPI lónìí máa farahàn nínú CPI nínú oṣù 2-3. Àwọn nọmba CPI rere tí a ń rí lónìí lè má bà a duro. 😬 🏭 PPI MoM: +0.4% — ìpadàbọ̀ lẹ́yìn tí ó dúró tì July 🏭 PPI YoY: 5.4% — sórí 4.8%, ń kíyèsí àgbékalẹ̀ ⛽ Ẹ̀rù owó agbára PPI: +4.2% MoM — epo padà sẹ́yìn lórí $111 ⚠️ Ẹ̀sùn-ọ̀nà ìgbéga owó: ìdádẹ́kọ oṣù 2-3 kí ó tó dé àwọn oníbàárà 🚨 Brent: $111/garawa — Houthi tún kọlù sí amáyédẹrùn Saudi 🚨 Èrò ìgbéga ìwọn-ìãiwo (rate hike) September 15-16: 85% lórí CME FedWatch
Weekly Bilan Bitcoin & Markets September 8 – 12, 2026$BTC · CPI · PPI · Rate Hike · FOMC Sept 15-16
😮💨 $BTC — breathing after the explosion Two weeks ago BTC was at $63,200. Last week it peaked at $82,300. This week it opened at $79,200 and closed at $76,300 — a controlled pullback of -3.7%. After a +22% explosion in one week, this kind of consolidation is normal and healthy. The market is digesting one of the most violent moves of the year. As we said in last week's bilan — "spectacular moves need time to confirm." This week was that time. 😮💨 🌡️ CPI — the good news and the hidden warning The headline numbers looked reassuring. CPI came in at 3.4% YoY — exactly as expected, unchanged from July. Core CPI dropped to 2.4% YoY — the lowest level since February 2026. Inflation excluding food and energy is genuinely approaching the Fed's 2% target. That is real progress and the market noticed — BTC initially dumped then recovered back above $77,000 within the same hour. 👀 But here is what most posts won't tell you. The monthly core CPI came in at 0.3% — above the 0.2% consensus. Every single analyst forecast was between 0.16% and 0.24%. The actual came in at 0.29% — beating the entire forecast range. At an annualised pace that is 3.5% — well above the Fed's target. Shelter, airfares, education and used cars led the acceleration. The annual number looks good. The monthly number does not. 🧠 ✅ CPI YoY: 3.4% — in line with forecast ✅ Core CPI YoY: 2.4% — lowest since February, approaching 2% target ⚠️ Core CPI MoM: 0.3% — above 0.2% consensus, beat entire forecast range ⚠️ Annualised monthly pace: 3.5% — not consistent with 2% target 🏠 Shelter, airfares, education: all accelerating this month 🏭 PPI — the pipeline is hot The day before CPI — PPI dropped and it was not pretty. PPI rose 0.4% MoM — above the 0.0% flat reading last month. Annual PPI accelerated to 5.4% YoY from 4.8% in July. Energy prices rose 4.2% during the month — driven by Brent crude surging back above $111/barrel on new Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. The pipeline is hot. What shows up in PPI today shows up in CPI in 2-3 months. The good CPI number we see today may not last. 😬 🏭 PPI MoM: +0.4% — rebound after flat July 🏭 PPI YoY: 5.4% — up from 4.8%, accelerating ⛽ Energy PPI: +4.2% MoM — oil back above $111 ⚠️ Pipeline inflation: 2-3 month delay before hitting consumers 🚨 Brent: $111/barrel — Houthis hit Saudi infrastructure again 🚨 Rate hike probability September 15-16: 85% on CME FedWatch 🔑 the contradiction — and what it means for fomc This week gave the Fed two conflicting messages in two days. CPI annual rate looks good — Core 2.4% is the best reading in months. But CPI monthly acceleration is too fast. And PPI is screaming that more inflation is coming. Nationwide now expects a quarter-point hike next week. CME FedWatch puts rate hike probability at 85% entering the September 15-16 FOMC. The quiet period is in effect — no Fed speakers. Warsh decides in silence. 👁️ 🔑 week in short $BTC 📉 $79,200 → $76,300 — controlled consolidation after +22% 😮💨 ✅ Core CPI YoY: 2.4% — real progress toward 2% target ⚠️ Core CPI MoM: 0.3% — beat entire forecast range, too hot 🚨 PPI YoY: 5.4% — pipeline hot, more inflation coming 🛢️ Brent: $111 — Houthis attacking Saudi infrastructure again 🚨 Rate hike probability: 85% — September 15-16 FOMC 📅 Next: FOMC September 15-16 — most important Fed decision of 2026 The good news is real — core CPI at 2.4% is the best reading since the war started. The bad news is also real — the monthly acceleration and PPI pipeline mean that improvement may not last. BTC absorbed both messages and closed at $76,300 — still 20% above where it was three weeks ago. FOMC September 15-16 is now 4 days away. With rate hike probability at 85% — the market is not pricing a hold. It is pricing a hike. If Warsh surprises and holds — BTC could explode toward $85K. If he hikes — BTC tests $70K support. The most binary Fed decision of 2026 is days away. 🎯 #CPI #PPI #FOMC #dyor
🔴🔴🔴 HIGH IMPACT — Friday September 11 CPI August 2026 🔥🔥 THE number of the year 📅 8:30 AM ET · Forecast: ~3.6% YoY · Prev: 3.4% The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the CPI report before Friday's opening bell. This is the last major data point before the September 15-16 FOMC — the most important Fed meeting of 2026. After last week's NFP came in at +162K — 3x the forecast — rate hike probability is back at 65%. This single CPI print will either confirm that hike or kill it. Cool CPI = hold confirmed = $BTC targets $90K+. Hot CPI = hike on September 16 = $BTC tests $75K support. There is no bigger number this year. ⚡ Core CPI August 2026 🔥 📅 8:30 AM ET · Same release as CPI Energy index increased 14.7% for the 12 months ending July — the big question is whether that energy spike shows up in core. If core stays soft despite oil — the Fed has its justification to hold. If core accelerates — Warsh hikes. 🌡️
🔴 HIGH IMPACT — Thursday September 10 PPI August 2026 🔥 📅 8:30 AM ET · Prev: 0.0% MoM flat Producer prices — the inflation pipeline. After July's flat PPI, does it stay soft or rebound? A hot print the day before CPI would be devastating for rate cut hopes. Soft = dovish case building. 🌡️ Initial Jobless Claims 📅 8:30 AM ET · Prev: 187K Same time as PPI — double release. After last week's NFP beat, do claims stay low confirming a strong labor market? Or does the trend finally crack? Crucial context for Friday's CPI. 💼
📊 $BTC — consolidation muna, tapos may shock noong Biyernes Matapos ang historic na pagsabog noong Agosto na +22% at ang pagsubok sa resistance na $81,500 noong nakaraang linggo — $BTC binuksan nitong linggong ito sa $77,200, kalmado at nagko-consolidate. Sarado ang Lunes para sa Labor Day. Martes hanggang Huwebes, pasensyoso ang merkado — tahimik na umakyat para subukan ang $82,300 noong Huwebes, ang pinakamataas na antas mula noong rurok ng Agosto 2026. Pagdating ng Biyernes, nagbago ang lahat. 👀 📉 ang biglang bagsak noong Biyernes — masyadong malakas ang NFP Noong Huwebes may gumawa ng galaw na nagpabomba sa merkado — nag-iposition bago ang NFP na inaasahang mahina ang lalabas matapos ang nakakabigla na -23K noong Hulyo. Nang bumagsak ang NFP noong Biyernes, ang totoo ay kabaligtaran 😱
Bilan ti ọsẹ to kọja kìlọ kedere — "Ìbẹ̀rù & Ìfẹ́ni (Greed) ní 74 lẹ́yìn ìgbéga ọ̀sẹ̀-ọ̀sẹ̀ +22% jẹ́ gẹ́gẹ́ bí ayika gangan tí àwọn long tí wọ́n gbẹ́kẹ̀lé ara wọn ju lọ máa ṣègbọ̀nrìn di ẹgẹ́." Bákan náà ló ṣẹlẹ̀ gangan láti Ọjọ́bọ̀ dé Ọjọ́rú. Ìgbéga Ọjọ́bọ̀ sí $82,300 kì í ṣe ti ara (organic) — ó jẹ́ ìṣètò ṣáájú NFP. Nígbà tí NFP bá wọlé gbóná, àwọn ipo wọ̀nyẹn tú sí kánkán ní kíákíá. Èyí kì í ṣe ìgbà àkọ́kọ́ tí a bá rí àpẹẹrẹ yìí ní 2026. Cascade ìparun ní Ojú-2 Oṣù kẹfà bẹ̀rẹ̀ ní ọna náà náà. Nígbà gbogbo ka ìdí tí ìgbéga/ìṣipopada náà fi ṣẹlẹ̀. 👁️