The Fed decides tonight, Thu Oct 29 at 01:00 ICT, and $BTC is walking into it on thin nerves.
📊 MARKET ODDS 🔹 Hold: 93% 🔹 Hike 25bp: 6% 🔹 Current range: 3.75% to 4.00%
🔑 WHAT ACTUALLY MATTERS There is no dot plot tonight, so the decision itself is probably not the real trade. The real mover is Chair Warsh's press conference, any hawkish dissent inside the vote, and what he signals for December.
My read: a hold with a dovish tone opens the door for a relief bounce. A hold with hawkish language does the opposite, the dollar firms up and BTC usually feels it first.
⚠️ THE HONEST RISK The first candle after the headline is often a trap. The press conference move is the one that tends to stick. And the week does not end there: September PCE lands Thu at 19:30 ICT, after the decision.
Team hold and chill, or team surprise tonight? 📈/📉
📌 Sharing personal opinions only, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy/sell. Crypto is highly risky; DYOR and you are solely responsible. No coin promotion.
📌 Sharing personal opinions only — not financial advice or a recommendation to buy/sell. Crypto is highly risky; DYOR and you are solely responsible. No coin promotion.
$GUA $GUA Down 98.36% from the $1.68 top, months of bottom base, and the daily just broke the descending trendline. 📊 📍 Current: $0.03355, +5.14%, volume waking up at the base 🔺 Falling trendline from the 0.075 spike broken, base locked between 0.026 and 0.034 💎 Market cap: $11M, AI fortune app on BNB Chain, Binance Alpha, 98% below ATH 📈 Same 99% down club setup as $SAGA called at 0.013, bottom first then 7x in 40 days 🛡️ Stop-loss -20%, hold play, measured target 0.078, +135% on the chart The whole market left it for dead. The trendline says otherwise. 🎯 🔻 #GUA #AI #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis 📌 Sharing personal opinions only not financial advice or a recommendation to buy/sell. Crypto is highly risky; DYOR and you are solely responsible. No coin promotion
$BTC #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #DailyReport #Binance 📌 Sharing personal opinions only, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy/sell. Crypto is highly risky; DYOR and you are solely responsible. No coin promotion.
🏦 BNY X RIPPLE: AMERICA'S OLDEST BANK NOW CUSTODIES $XRP AND RLUSD
BNY just expanded its Ripple partnership in a way that matters: America's oldest bank now supports institutional custody of $XRP and RLUSD on its Digital Asset Custody platform.
🔹 BNY already served as RLUSD's primary reserve custodian, and now BNY clients will be able to mint and redeem RLUSD directly through the bank. 🔹 With working-capital platform C2FO, Ripple and BNY are bringing tokenized trade finance to the XRP Ledger: suppliers could get paid in seconds against approved invoices instead of waiting days for bank settlement. 🔹 RLUSD has grown to about $2.5B, and the XRP Ledger has processed over 4.6B transactions with settlement in 3-5 seconds.
This is the use-case step Ripple keeps promising: assets moving from being held to being used for payments and collateral across financial markets.
Honest risk: custody is not buying, no client is announced as buying $XRP , and the C2FO trade-finance service is still in testing with first RLUSD transactions expected only by year-end. Infrastructure first, flows later.
My read: when a 240-year-old custody bank plugs a public ledger into trade finance, the rails are being built whether the market prices it today or not.
Bullish or bearish on this deal? 🐂 / 🐻 👇
📌 Sharing personal opinions only, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy/sell. Crypto is highly risky; DYOR and you are solely responsible. No coin promotion.
🔑 CFTC vs Utah: the federal-state fight over prediction markets just escalated again.
The CFTC has sued Utah in federal court, asking a judge to block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchanges. Utah moved first, suing Kalshi on Oct 20 and calling the platform a public nuisance offering illegal gambling, seeking up to about $60M in allegedly unlawful proceeds.
The CFTC argues Congress gave it exclusive jurisdiction over these event contracts, which it treats as swaps traded on designated contract markets. Utah is now the 10th state the CFTC has sued in this fight, after Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Rhode Island, New Mexico and Kentucky.
Why it matters: prediction markets are now a real crypto-adjacent asset class, and every court ruling redraws the map of where they can legally operate. A federal win would cement CFTC preemption nationwide, while a state win would invite a patchwork of bans and enforcement.
⚠️ Risk: courts have split so far, with appellate decisions going both ways, so this is far from settled. Do not assume Kalshi-style markets stay open everywhere.
🐂 or 🐻: does federal preemption win, or do states keep their veto?
📌 Sharing personal opinions only, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy/sell. Crypto is highly risky; DYOR and you are solely responsible. No coin promotion.