#FedRateWatch: I-Rate Hike Ingase Ibe Sesibekwe Inani — Umbuzo Wangempela Uthi Okuzolandela
Umhlangano we-Septhemba we-FOMC usuphenduke omunye wemicimbi emikhulu kakhulu ye-macro yamasonto onke yempahla enobungozi.
I-August U.S. CPI ibonise ukwehla kwamandla emali okukhulu (headline inflation) okungu-3.4% unyaka nonyaka, kanti i-core CPI inyuke ngo-0.3% inyanga eminyakeni futhi ngo-2.4% unyaka nonyaka. Ngemva kombiko, ukulindela okusekelwe emakethe okwenyuka kwe-Fed ngamaphuzu angu-25 (basis points) kudlulele phezulu kakhulu, kufinyelela cishe ku-90%, kanti intengo yakamuva emakethe iseduze no-93% ngaphambi kwesinqumo sanamuhla.
Kodwa kimi, umbuzo omkhulu akuwona nje “Ingabe i-Fed izokhuphula i-rate?”
Kuwukuthi: I-Fed ikhombisa ini ngokunyakaza okulandelayo?
Ukunyusa ama-25bps kungase kube sekukhokhelwe kakhulu ku-BTC, amasheya ezobuchwepheshe (tech stocks) kanye ne-Treasury yields. Ukungazinzi okukhulu kungase kuvele esitatimendeni, izibikezelo zomnotho (economic projections) kanye neseluleko sikaSihlalo u-Kevin Warsh sokuthi lokhu kuwukuphendula okudlula kanye yini (one-off response) ekukhuphukeni kwamandla emali okuqhubekayo, noma ukuqala komjikelezo wokuqinisa (tightening) omude.
Ku-Bitcoin, i-yields ephezulu kanye nokuba khona koketshezi oluqinile (tighter liquidity) kungadala ingcindezi yesikhathi esifushane, kodwa uma imakethe ibona ukuthi i-hike isivele ibekwe inani ngokugcwele, i-BTC ingase iphendule kakhulu kulokho okuzolandela (future guidance) kunesinqumo uqobo.
Ama-tech stocks abhekene nesibalo esifanayo. Ama-rate aphezulu angakhuphula ingcindezi kuma-valuations, ikakhulukazi kuma-assets okukhula (growth assets), kodwa ukungabikho kokuba “kakhulu hawkish” (hawkish) kungashintsha ngokushesha umqondo (sentiment).
Igolide liyathakazelisa nakakhulu. Ngokwesiko, i-rate ephezulu ingabeka isisindo ku-asset engayenzi inzuzo (non-yielding), kodwa igolide selibonise ukuqina (resilience) naphezu kokukhuphuka okulindelekile kwe-rate.
Indlela yami ilula: angifuni ukuhweba nge-headline; ngifuna ukuhweba ngokusabela.
Ngizobheka ama-Treasury yields, idola, indlela i-BTC eya ngayo, kanye neseluleko esizayo (forward guidance) se-Fed ngaphambi kokuthatha isikhundla (directional position).
Isinqumo se-rate sibalulekile. Umlayezo ngemva kwaso ungase ube okubaluleke nakakhulu.
#FedRateWatch #FedRateWatchCreate #BTC #Crypto #FOMC #FederalReserve #BinanceSquare
Umhlangano we-Septhemba we-FOMC usuphenduke omunye wemicimbi emikhulu kakhulu ye-macro yamasonto onke yempahla enobungozi.
I-August U.S. CPI ibonise ukwehla kwamandla emali okukhulu (headline inflation) okungu-3.4% unyaka nonyaka, kanti i-core CPI inyuke ngo-0.3% inyanga eminyakeni futhi ngo-2.4% unyaka nonyaka. Ngemva kombiko, ukulindela okusekelwe emakethe okwenyuka kwe-Fed ngamaphuzu angu-25 (basis points) kudlulele phezulu kakhulu, kufinyelela cishe ku-90%, kanti intengo yakamuva emakethe iseduze no-93% ngaphambi kwesinqumo sanamuhla.
Kodwa kimi, umbuzo omkhulu akuwona nje “Ingabe i-Fed izokhuphula i-rate?”
Kuwukuthi: I-Fed ikhombisa ini ngokunyakaza okulandelayo?
Ukunyusa ama-25bps kungase kube sekukhokhelwe kakhulu ku-BTC, amasheya ezobuchwepheshe (tech stocks) kanye ne-Treasury yields. Ukungazinzi okukhulu kungase kuvele esitatimendeni, izibikezelo zomnotho (economic projections) kanye neseluleko sikaSihlalo u-Kevin Warsh sokuthi lokhu kuwukuphendula okudlula kanye yini (one-off response) ekukhuphukeni kwamandla emali okuqhubekayo, noma ukuqala komjikelezo wokuqinisa (tightening) omude.
Ku-Bitcoin, i-yields ephezulu kanye nokuba khona koketshezi oluqinile (tighter liquidity) kungadala ingcindezi yesikhathi esifushane, kodwa uma imakethe ibona ukuthi i-hike isivele ibekwe inani ngokugcwele, i-BTC ingase iphendule kakhulu kulokho okuzolandela (future guidance) kunesinqumo uqobo.
Ama-tech stocks abhekene nesibalo esifanayo. Ama-rate aphezulu angakhuphula ingcindezi kuma-valuations, ikakhulukazi kuma-assets okukhula (growth assets), kodwa ukungabikho kokuba “kakhulu hawkish” (hawkish) kungashintsha ngokushesha umqondo (sentiment).
Igolide liyathakazelisa nakakhulu. Ngokwesiko, i-rate ephezulu ingabeka isisindo ku-asset engayenzi inzuzo (non-yielding), kodwa igolide selibonise ukuqina (resilience) naphezu kokukhuphuka okulindelekile kwe-rate.
Indlela yami ilula: angifuni ukuhweba nge-headline; ngifuna ukuhweba ngokusabela.
Ngizobheka ama-Treasury yields, idola, indlela i-BTC eya ngayo, kanye neseluleko esizayo (forward guidance) se-Fed ngaphambi kokuthatha isikhundla (directional position).
Isinqumo se-rate sibalulekile. Umlayezo ngemva kwaso ungase ube okubaluleke nakakhulu.
#FedRateWatch #FedRateWatchCreate #BTC #Crypto #FOMC #FederalReserve #BinanceSquare
