Been digging through
@grvt_io numbers this week and one thing keeps nagging at me
#grvt just confirmed TGE for July 21, and almost simultaneously rolled out a Binance Wallet Booster campaign (July 10-17, no trading or deposits required, just missions for a slice of 1.5M $GRVT). Meanwhile 24h volume is sitting around $1.39B, down slightly, but open interest barely moved basically flat.
That gap is what caught my eye. If volume were reflecting real directional conviction, you'd expect OI to move with it. It's not. Feels more like capital rotating in and out fast open, close, repeat than anyone actually building positions. Which, fair enough, makes sense with a no-deposit-required rewards campaign running literally right now.
People are optimizing for points and allocation weight, not for exposure.
I caught myself doing something similar a while back on a different exchange's incentive push trading size I didn't really want just to hit a volume tier. Didn't feel like "trading" really, felt more like a chore with a spreadsheet attached. Makes me wonder how much of GRVT's headline volume is that same behavior showing up at scale.
Not knocking the campaign, it's just incentives doing what incentives do. But it does make we wonder once TGE actually happens and the immediate points math goes away, does volume hold, or does it fall off a cliff?