bitcoinoptions

Bitcoin's $13 Billion Expiry Countdown: What This Friday Could Do to the Entire Crypto Market
Every five years or so, a single date on the derivatives calendar can shake the entire crypto market. That date is June 26, 2026 — and it is two days away.
The Raw Numbers Right Now
◆ $13 billion in Bitcoin options open interest is set to expire on June 26 — with Deribit alone holding $10.4 billion, representing a 79% market share of global Bitcoin options. OKX sits second at 6%, followed by Binance and CME at 5% each, and Bybit at 4%. (Cointelegraph)
◆ Just $2 billion of the $10.6 billion in open interest is currently in the money — leaving roughly $8.6 billion, or 80%, out of the money and on track to expire completely worthless. (CoinDesk)
◆ The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.87 — reflecting 87,156 call contracts versus 76,241 put contracts — a near-balanced positioning that signals deep uncertainty across the market. (CoinDesk)
◆ The options market's max pain price is around $74,000 — approximately 15% above current spot price, meaning the market would need a significant move higher just to bring most contracts into profitable territory before Friday. (DigitalToday)
The Three Forces Colliding This Week
This is not a standard quarterly expiry. Three powerful market forces are hitting simultaneously:
◆ US PCE Inflation Data — the May Personal Consumption Expenditures price index drops on June 26, the same day as the options settlement. The April PCE came in at 3.8% year-over-year, with core PCE at 3.3% — both significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. (DigitalToday)
◆ Hawkish Federal Reserve — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50%–3.75% at the June 18 FOMC meeting, stripped all easing language from the statement, and oversaw a dot plot shift where nine of eighteen participants now project at least one rate increase this year. Odds of a December hike have repriced to 77% from 24% a month ago. (The Block)
◆ Record ETF Outflows — over the past 30 days, the spot Bitcoin ETF complex has shed more than $6 billion in net outflows — described by analysts as a record stretch that has materially altered the market's demand structure. (The Block)
What Happened the Last Time This Occurred
In late March, Bitcoin fell sharply intraday to around $66,200 as the expiry of $14.1 billion in Bitcoin options and $2.2 billion in Ethereum options coincided with surging oil prices and rising government bond yields — a near-identical macro setup to what the market faces this Friday. (DigitalToday)
The Key Strike Levels Every Participant Is Watching
◆ $60,000 put — holds roughly $450 million in open interest, making it the critical downside reference point that the market tested at the start of June (CoinDesk)
◆ $80,000 call — holds approximately $406 million in open interest, representing the significant upside barrier that would need to be cleared for call holders to profit (CoinDesk)
◆ $72,000 and above — where 78% of all call open interest sits, meaning the overwhelming majority of optimistic positions are deeply out of the money with 48 hours remaining (Cointelegraph)
What Analysts Are Actually Saying
Glassnode's latest options market analysis found that one-week implied volatility has fallen from 60% to 35% and the 25-delta put skew has pulled back from extreme levels — suggesting the rush for downside protection is largely already priced in. (The Block)
Some analysts argue that unwinding these $13 billion worth of contracts could paradoxically purge the market of excess leverage — potentially establishing a healthier price base for Q3. Others warn that such a capital loss could durably undermine operator confidence heading into early July. (Cointribune)
Historical precedent offers a cautious reason for patience: every single quarterly options settlement in 2025 produced a positive post-expiry move within 72 hours of settlement clearing. (Coin Gabbar)
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin is at $62,300–$62,500, down approximately 14% in June alone. A $13 billion expiry, a Federal Reserve that just signaled rate hikes, a PCE print landing the same day, and six consecutive weeks of ETF outflows — all converging on a single 24-hour window this Friday.
The derivatives market does not lie about where pain is concentrated. And right now, 80% of open contracts are sitting in the pain zone.
With $13 billion in options expiring Friday and inflation data dropping the same day — do you think the post-expiry weeks will bring a Q3 reset, or is the macro pressure too strong for the market to absorb?
#Bitcoin #CryptoMarkets #BitcoinOptions #MacroCrypto #CryptoNews

クリプトネイティブ
#SECApprovesBitcoinIndexOptionsNasdaq

証券取引委員会は、2026年5月22日にナスダックがビットコインの価格に基づくインデックスオプションを上場することを許可しました。これは、ウォール街のデジタル資産との統合が加速する中での最新のマイルストーンです。
承認はSECリリース第34号105549を通じて発行され、正式にはSEC.govからの加速承認命令と題されています。
これらの金融商品は、米国の株式トレーダーに、iShares Bitcoin Trust ETFや類似の製品に存在するオプションを超えてビットコインの価格変動にエクスポージャーを得るための代替手段を提供します。

従来の金融とデジタル資産の統合が大きなマイルストーンに到達した。SECは、ナスダックがビットコインの価格に基づくヨーロッパスタイルのインデックスオプションを上場するための加速承認を正式に与えた。
これは単なる規制の見出しではない—資本配分にとって構造的なゲームチェンジャーだ。初めて、ナスダックの従来のエクイティトレーダーが、CME CFビットコインリアルタイムインデックスに基づく現金決済のインデックスオプションに直接アクセスできるようになり、標準的なスポットETFに見られる構造的なトラッキング摩擦を回避できる。