Bitcoin Up or Down on September 22?
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Volume $88,359.45
#kalshi
kalshi
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Good morning friends 🌄
🚨 Kalshi Faces Setback in Sixth Circuit Court Ruling
Prediction market platform Kalshi has faced a setback after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit ruled in favor of regulators in Ohio and Tennessee.
The court found that Kalshi had not established that its sports-event contracts were protected as federally regulated “swaps.” As a result, the states can continue enforcing their gambling laws against these contracts while the legal dispute continues.
📌 This ruling could have broader implications for prediction markets and the regulatory debate around event-based contracts in the U.S.
⚠️ DYOR | This is not financial advice.
#Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #Markets #Regulation #CryptoNews
Good morning friends 🌄
🚨 Kalshi Faces Setback in Sixth Circuit Court Ruling
Prediction market platform Kalshi has faced a setback after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit ruled in favor of regulators in Ohio and Tennessee.
The court found that Kalshi had not established that its sports-event contracts were protected as federally regulated “swaps.” As a result, the states can continue enforcing their gambling laws against these contracts while the legal dispute continues.
📌 This ruling could have broader implications for prediction markets and the regulatory debate around event-based contracts in the U.S.
⚠️ DYOR | This is not financial advice.
#Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #Markets #Regulation #CryptoNews
🚨 Kalshi Faces Setback in Sixth Circuit Court Ruling
Prediction market platform Kalshi has faced a setback after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit ruled in favor of regulators in Ohio and Tennessee.
The court found that Kalshi had not established that its sports-event contracts were protected as federally regulated “swaps.” As a result, the states can continue enforcing their gambling laws against these contracts while the legal dispute continues.
📌 This ruling could have broader implications for prediction markets and the regulatory debate around event-based contracts in the U.S.
⚠️ DYOR | This is not financial advice.
#Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #Markets #Regulation #CryptoNews
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#Kalshi just took another serious legal hit, and in my view this could become a much bigger problem for the prediction-market model.
The Sixth Circuit ruled that Ohio and Tennessee can enforce their own gambling laws against Kalshi’s sports contracts. The court also made it clear that state-by-state compliance is possible through geofencing, even if it becomes expensive or complicated.
What really catches my attention is the exposure here. Around 69% of Kalshi’s modeled retail sports demand reportedly comes from states without legal online sportsbooks. That means wider state restrictions could directly hit a huge part of the market that helped prediction platforms grow in the first place.
We now have different appeals courts reaching different conclusions, so this legal fight is far from finished.
From my point of view, the biggest question is no longer just whether prediction markets can grow — it is whether they can maintain one national market or eventually be forced into a state-by-state system.
This could reshape liquidity, access, and the whole US prediction-market business model. 👀
$AMP
$MUBARAK
$RARE
{future}(RAREUSDT)
{future}(MUBARAKUSDT)
{spot}(AMPUSDT)
#Kalshi just took another serious legal hit, and in my view this could become a much bigger problem for the prediction-market model.
The Sixth Circuit ruled that Ohio and Tennessee can enforce their own gambling laws against Kalshi’s sports contracts. The court also made it clear that state-by-state compliance is possible through geofencing, even if it becomes expensive or complicated.
What really catches my attention is the exposure here. Around 69% of Kalshi’s modeled retail sports demand reportedly comes from states without legal online sportsbooks. That means wider state restrictions could directly hit a huge part of the market that helped prediction platforms grow in the first place.
We now have different appeals courts reaching different conclusions, so this legal fight is far from finished.
From my point of view, the biggest question is no longer just whether prediction markets can grow — it is whether they can maintain one national market or eventually be forced into a state-by-state system.
This could reshape liquidity, access, and the whole US prediction-market business model. 👀
$AMP
$MUBARAK
$RARE
The Sixth Circuit ruled that Ohio and Tennessee can enforce their own gambling laws against Kalshi’s sports contracts. The court also made it clear that state-by-state compliance is possible through geofencing, even if it becomes expensive or complicated.
What really catches my attention is the exposure here. Around 69% of Kalshi’s modeled retail sports demand reportedly comes from states without legal online sportsbooks. That means wider state restrictions could directly hit a huge part of the market that helped prediction platforms grow in the first place.
We now have different appeals courts reaching different conclusions, so this legal fight is far from finished.
From my point of view, the biggest question is no longer just whether prediction markets can grow — it is whether they can maintain one national market or eventually be forced into a state-by-state system.
This could reshape liquidity, access, and the whole US prediction-market business model. 👀
$AMP
$MUBARAK
$RARE
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🚨 Kalshi’s September XRP market shows a $1.70 forecast, but the contract trades at just 32 cents despite XRP near $1.55. This mismatch suggests weak conviction in near-term upside, even as the forecast ticks up. Traders may be pricing in limited upside or waiting for clearer catalysts. Is the market underestimating XRP’s potential, or is skepticism justified?
#Kalshi
$XRP #TradingSignal #CryptoAnalysis
🚨 Kalshi’s September XRP market shows a $1.70 forecast, but the contract trades at just 32 cents despite XRP near $1.55. This mismatch suggests weak conviction in near-term upside, even as the forecast ticks up. Traders may be pricing in limited upside or waiting for clearer catalysts. Is the market underestimating XRP’s potential, or is skepticism justified?
#Kalshi
$XRP #TradingSignal #CryptoAnalysis
#Kalshi
$XRP #TradingSignal #CryptoAnalysis
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Kalshi Pushes Back: Denies CFTC Probe, Attributes $ETH Perpetual Activity to Liquidity Programs
{spot}(ETHUSDT)
Popular prediction platform Kalshi has officially denied reports that it is under formal investigation by the CFTC regarding unusual trading activity in its $ETH perpetual market.
The platform responded to concerns raised by market observers after repetitive trade patterns—specifically high volumes of identically sized ~$5,500 orders—were flagged on its ETH perpetual contracts. Research data highlighted a sharp gap where 24-hour volume hit ~$539 million against just $3.1 million in open interest.
Key Highlights:
>> No Formal Probe: Kalshi confirmed it has not been contacted by the CFTC regarding a formal examination and emphasized that sending routine daily trade data to regulators is standard operating procedure.
>> Liquidity Incentives at Work: The platform clarified that the clustered order sizes are a direct result of its liquidity incentive program. Automated market makers structure systematic orders to qualify for liquidity rewards, causing recurring trade patterns.
>> Anti-Wash Trading Controls: Kalshi emphasized it maintains dedicated surveillance tools and teams to prevent wash trading or self-matching orders on both its $BTC and ETH markets.
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
While routine regulatory review of daily data remains standard, Kalshi maintains that the heightened volume is driven by market-making strategies, not improper trading practices.
#writetoearn #Kalshi #ETH #CryptoNews #Write2Earn
Kalshi Pushes Back: Denies CFTC Probe, Attributes $ETH Perpetual Activity to Liquidity Programs
Popular prediction platform Kalshi has officially denied reports that it is under formal investigation by the CFTC regarding unusual trading activity in its $ETH perpetual market.
The platform responded to concerns raised by market observers after repetitive trade patterns—specifically high volumes of identically sized ~$5,500 orders—were flagged on its ETH perpetual contracts. Research data highlighted a sharp gap where 24-hour volume hit ~$539 million against just $3.1 million in open interest.
Key Highlights:
>> No Formal Probe: Kalshi confirmed it has not been contacted by the CFTC regarding a formal examination and emphasized that sending routine daily trade data to regulators is standard operating procedure.
>> Liquidity Incentives at Work: The platform clarified that the clustered order sizes are a direct result of its liquidity incentive program. Automated market makers structure systematic orders to qualify for liquidity rewards, causing recurring trade patterns.
>> Anti-Wash Trading Controls: Kalshi emphasized it maintains dedicated surveillance tools and teams to prevent wash trading or self-matching orders on both its $BTC and ETH markets.
While routine regulatory review of daily data remains standard, Kalshi maintains that the heightened volume is driven by market-making strategies, not improper trading practices.
#writetoearn #Kalshi #ETH #CryptoNews #Write2Earn
Popular prediction platform Kalshi has officially denied reports that it is under formal investigation by the CFTC regarding unusual trading activity in its $ETH perpetual market.
The platform responded to concerns raised by market observers after repetitive trade patterns—specifically high volumes of identically sized ~$5,500 orders—were flagged on its ETH perpetual contracts. Research data highlighted a sharp gap where 24-hour volume hit ~$539 million against just $3.1 million in open interest.
Key Highlights:
>> No Formal Probe: Kalshi confirmed it has not been contacted by the CFTC regarding a formal examination and emphasized that sending routine daily trade data to regulators is standard operating procedure.
>> Liquidity Incentives at Work: The platform clarified that the clustered order sizes are a direct result of its liquidity incentive program. Automated market makers structure systematic orders to qualify for liquidity rewards, causing recurring trade patterns.
>> Anti-Wash Trading Controls: Kalshi emphasized it maintains dedicated surveillance tools and teams to prevent wash trading or self-matching orders on both its $BTC and ETH markets.
While routine regulatory review of daily data remains standard, Kalshi maintains that the heightened volume is driven by market-making strategies, not improper trading practices.
#writetoearn #Kalshi #ETH #CryptoNews #Write2Earn
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Haussier
🔎 The Real Story Behind Kalshi’s ETH Volume
The headline says $5B+ in ETH perpetual volume. But the more interesting story is what sits underneath that number.
Recent analysis of Kalshi’s public trade data found a striking pattern: a large share of ETH-perp activity repeatedly clustered around roughly $5,500 per trade. CoinDesk’s sample found trades near $5,499 represented 57% of the ETH-perp volume it analyzed, while broader reporting found nearly 1 million similarly sized trades contributing more than $5B in volume.
That alone doesn't prove wash trading.
Kalshi strongly disputes that interpretation. The company says the trades came from a market maker using fixed-size orders, while hundreds of distinct traders took the other side. Kalshi also says self-matching is mechanically blocked and coordinated trading is monitored.
And that's where the bigger question comes in:
How independently verifiable is the activity?
Public trade data can show what was traded and when, but it doesn't publicly identify the participants behind each trade. That makes it possible to observe unusual patterns while still being unable to independently establish who was trading with whom or whether any rules were broken.
This is also where @Polymarket becomes an interesting comparison—not necessarily because one model is automatically better, but because the underlying systems provide different forms of transparency.
On-chain activity can leave a publicly inspectable transaction trail. Off-chain exchange activity relies more heavily on the platform's own records and disclosures.
Different infrastructure.
Different transparency.
Different ways to verify activity.
The real question isn't simply:
“How big is the volume?”
It's:
“Can the volume be independently understood and verified?”
Because in markets, a big number means much more when everyone can check what produced it.
#Kalshi #Polymarket #PredictionMarkets
🔎 The Real Story Behind Kalshi’s ETH Volume
The headline says $5B+ in ETH perpetual volume. But the more interesting story is what sits underneath that number.
Recent analysis of Kalshi’s public trade data found a striking pattern: a large share of ETH-perp activity repeatedly clustered around roughly $5,500 per trade. CoinDesk’s sample found trades near $5,499 represented 57% of the ETH-perp volume it analyzed, while broader reporting found nearly 1 million similarly sized trades contributing more than $5B in volume.
That alone doesn't prove wash trading.
Kalshi strongly disputes that interpretation. The company says the trades came from a market maker using fixed-size orders, while hundreds of distinct traders took the other side. Kalshi also says self-matching is mechanically blocked and coordinated trading is monitored.
And that's where the bigger question comes in:
How independently verifiable is the activity?
Public trade data can show what was traded and when, but it doesn't publicly identify the participants behind each trade. That makes it possible to observe unusual patterns while still being unable to independently establish who was trading with whom or whether any rules were broken.
This is also where @Polymarket becomes an interesting comparison—not necessarily because one model is automatically better, but because the underlying systems provide different forms of transparency.
On-chain activity can leave a publicly inspectable transaction trail. Off-chain exchange activity relies more heavily on the platform's own records and disclosures.
Different infrastructure.
Different transparency.
Different ways to verify activity.
The real question isn't simply:
“How big is the volume?”
It's:
“Can the volume be independently understood and verified?”
Because in markets, a big number means much more when everyone can check what produced it.
#Kalshi #Polymarket #PredictionMarkets
The headline says $5B+ in ETH perpetual volume. But the more interesting story is what sits underneath that number.
Recent analysis of Kalshi’s public trade data found a striking pattern: a large share of ETH-perp activity repeatedly clustered around roughly $5,500 per trade. CoinDesk’s sample found trades near $5,499 represented 57% of the ETH-perp volume it analyzed, while broader reporting found nearly 1 million similarly sized trades contributing more than $5B in volume.
That alone doesn't prove wash trading.
Kalshi strongly disputes that interpretation. The company says the trades came from a market maker using fixed-size orders, while hundreds of distinct traders took the other side. Kalshi also says self-matching is mechanically blocked and coordinated trading is monitored.
And that's where the bigger question comes in:
How independently verifiable is the activity?
Public trade data can show what was traded and when, but it doesn't publicly identify the participants behind each trade. That makes it possible to observe unusual patterns while still being unable to independently establish who was trading with whom or whether any rules were broken.
This is also where @Polymarket becomes an interesting comparison—not necessarily because one model is automatically better, but because the underlying systems provide different forms of transparency.
On-chain activity can leave a publicly inspectable transaction trail. Off-chain exchange activity relies more heavily on the platform's own records and disclosures.
Different infrastructure.
Different transparency.
Different ways to verify activity.
The real question isn't simply:
“How big is the volume?”
It's:
“Can the volume be independently understood and verified?”
Because in markets, a big number means much more when everyone can check what produced it.
#Kalshi #Polymarket #PredictionMarkets
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El mercado de predicciones de Kalshi acaba de recibir un revés legal.
La Corte de Apelaciones del Sexto Circuito falló en su contra.
El tribunal decidió que los contratos de eventos deportivos deben seguir las leyes estatales de Ohio y Tennessee.
Esto complica bastante la operación de este tipo de plataformas en Estados Unidos.
La disputa legal parece encaminarse ahora hacia la Corte Suprema.
¿Qué impacto crees que tendrá esto para el resto del sector?
#Kalshi #Mercados #Regulacion $BTC
El mercado de predicciones de Kalshi acaba de recibir un revés legal.
La Corte de Apelaciones del Sexto Circuito falló en su contra.
El tribunal decidió que los contratos de eventos deportivos deben seguir las leyes estatales de Ohio y Tennessee.
Esto complica bastante la operación de este tipo de plataformas en Estados Unidos.
La disputa legal parece encaminarse ahora hacia la Corte Suprema.
¿Qué impacto crees que tendrá esto para el resto del sector?
#Kalshi #Mercados #Regulacion $BTC
La Corte de Apelaciones del Sexto Circuito falló en su contra.
El tribunal decidió que los contratos de eventos deportivos deben seguir las leyes estatales de Ohio y Tennessee.
Esto complica bastante la operación de este tipo de plataformas en Estados Unidos.
La disputa legal parece encaminarse ahora hacia la Corte Suprema.
¿Qué impacto crees que tendrá esto para el resto del sector?
#Kalshi #Mercados #Regulacion $BTC
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Kalshi体育合约败诉：第六巡回判≠swap，州法可管第六巡回周五全票落锤：Kalshi体育事件合约，先过不了CEA里“swap”那一关。
不是“预测市场凉了”。是州监管和联邦衍生品管辖权的缝，又被撕大了一点。
1️⃣ 判什么
三法官一致：Kalshi没证明体育事件合约满足CEA对swap的定义——事件本身要“内在关联”潜在金融/经济/商业后果；下游赞助、转播、广告那一层不够。退一步讲，就算当成swap，CEA也不明示/默示抢占俄亥俄、田纳西相关州法。结果：维持俄亥俄拒发初步救济，撤销田纳西已发初步救济，发回。
2️⃣ 巡回在打架
第九巡回（内华达）上周也站州；第三巡回（新泽西）四月站CFTC独家管辖。新泽西已向最高法院请愿。CNBC口径：这题大概率要上到SCOTUS才收口。
3️⃣ 我怎么筛
这是管辖权/预占问题，不是产品“死活”判决。非体育事件合约、政治/宏观类合约不在本意见射程。Kalshi发言人：州际拼图没法做市场——这是他们的立场，记一笔。判决≠最高法院终局≠全国一刀切。
只筛选，不教育。不构成投资建议。
#Kalshi #预测市场 #CFTC #监管 #Web3
Kalshi体育合约败诉：第六巡回判≠swap，州法可管
第六巡回周五全票落锤：Kalshi体育事件合约，先过不了CEA里“swap”那一关。
不是“预测市场凉了”。是州监管和联邦衍生品管辖权的缝，又被撕大了一点。
1️⃣ 判什么
三法官一致：Kalshi没证明体育事件合约满足CEA对swap的定义——事件本身要“内在关联”潜在金融/经济/商业后果；下游赞助、转播、广告那一层不够。退一步讲，就算当成swap，CEA也不明示/默示抢占俄亥俄、田纳西相关州法。结果：维持俄亥俄拒发初步救济，撤销田纳西已发初步救济，发回。
2️⃣ 巡回在打架
第九巡回（内华达）上周也站州；第三巡回（新泽西）四月站CFTC独家管辖。新泽西已向最高法院请愿。CNBC口径：这题大概率要上到SCOTUS才收口。
3️⃣ 我怎么筛
这是管辖权/预占问题，不是产品“死活”判决。非体育事件合约、政治/宏观类合约不在本意见射程。Kalshi发言人：州际拼图没法做市场——这是他们的立场，记一笔。判决≠最高法院终局≠全国一刀切。
只筛选，不教育。不构成投资建议。
#Kalshi #预测市场 #CFTC #监管 #Web3
不是“预测市场凉了”。是州监管和联邦衍生品管辖权的缝，又被撕大了一点。
1️⃣ 判什么
三法官一致：Kalshi没证明体育事件合约满足CEA对swap的定义——事件本身要“内在关联”潜在金融/经济/商业后果；下游赞助、转播、广告那一层不够。退一步讲，就算当成swap，CEA也不明示/默示抢占俄亥俄、田纳西相关州法。结果：维持俄亥俄拒发初步救济，撤销田纳西已发初步救济，发回。
2️⃣ 巡回在打架
第九巡回（内华达）上周也站州；第三巡回（新泽西）四月站CFTC独家管辖。新泽西已向最高法院请愿。CNBC口径：这题大概率要上到SCOTUS才收口。
3️⃣ 我怎么筛
这是管辖权/预占问题，不是产品“死活”判决。非体育事件合约、政治/宏观类合约不在本意见射程。Kalshi发言人：州际拼图没法做市场——这是他们的立场，记一笔。判决≠最高法院终局≠全国一刀切。
只筛选，不教育。不构成投资建议。
#Kalshi #预测市场 #CFTC #监管 #Web3
风中浪客:
这判法等于把“event contract=swap”这条路先堵了一半，预测市场短期只能继续在州法缝里求生，别急着当成啥大利好。
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Vérifié
Everyone is talking about Kalshi’s $5B $ETH perp volume.
But the bigger question is simpler:
Can you verify the activity?
Nearly 1M trades reportedly clustered around the same ~$5,500 size.
Kalshi says it was market-making activity, not wash trading.
Nothing is proven yet.
This is where @polymarket ‘s model gets interesting.
When trading happens on-chain, the activity leaves a public record.
You can look at the transactions and see what actually happened.
Different markets use different systems.
But one thing stays important:
Can the activity be independently checked?
#Polymarket #Predictionmarket #Kalshi
Everyone is talking about Kalshi’s $5B $ETH perp volume.
But the bigger question is simpler:
Can you verify the activity?
Nearly 1M trades reportedly clustered around the same ~$5,500 size.
Kalshi says it was market-making activity, not wash trading.
Nothing is proven yet.
This is where @Polymarket ‘s model gets interesting.
When trading happens on-chain, the activity leaves a public record.
You can look at the transactions and see what actually happened.
Different markets use different systems.
But one thing stays important:
Can the activity be independently checked?
#Polymarket #Predictionmarket #Kalshi
But the bigger question is simpler:
Can you verify the activity?
Nearly 1M trades reportedly clustered around the same ~$5,500 size.
Kalshi says it was market-making activity, not wash trading.
Nothing is proven yet.
This is where @Polymarket ‘s model gets interesting.
When trading happens on-chain, the activity leaves a public record.
You can look at the transactions and see what actually happened.
Different markets use different systems.
But one thing stays important:
Can the activity be independently checked?
#Polymarket #Predictionmarket #Kalshi
butterfly__6:
On-chain activity brings real transparency.
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🚨 INSTITUTIONAL GIANTS EYE $42B VALUATION FOR $KALSHI AS PREDICTION MARKETS EXPLODE! 💥
PitchBook just dropped a massive 46-page valuation model putting prediction market titan $KALSHI anywhere between $22.8B and $42.1B by 2030. 📊 With projected revenues reaching $6.4B backed by Susquehanna order flow, smart money is aggressively positioning for long-term category dominance. 🔍
The real narrative battle sits at the regulatory border where sports products drive 82.4% of total fee revenue. 💡 While upcoming Supreme Court cases introduce sharp volatility, institutional liquidity keeps front-running potential downside risks through planned state-level pivots. 💬 Are you bidding on prediction market infrastructure early or waiting for regulatory clarity before entry? 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️
🏷️ #KALSHI #PredictionMarkets #Macro #Crypto #Trading
🔥 💎
🚨 INSTITUTIONAL GIANTS EYE $42B VALUATION FOR $KALSHI AS PREDICTION MARKETS EXPLODE! 💥
PitchBook just dropped a massive 46-page valuation model putting prediction market titan $KALSHI anywhere between $22.8B and $42.1B by 2030. 📊 With projected revenues reaching $6.4B backed by Susquehanna order flow, smart money is aggressively positioning for long-term category dominance. 🔍
The real narrative battle sits at the regulatory border where sports products drive 82.4% of total fee revenue. 💡 While upcoming Supreme Court cases introduce sharp volatility, institutional liquidity keeps front-running potential downside risks through planned state-level pivots. 💬 Are you bidding on prediction market infrastructure early or waiting for regulatory clarity before entry? 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️
🏷️ #KALSHI #PredictionMarkets #Macro #Crypto #Trading
🔥 💎
PitchBook just dropped a massive 46-page valuation model putting prediction market titan $KALSHI anywhere between $22.8B and $42.1B by 2030. 📊 With projected revenues reaching $6.4B backed by Susquehanna order flow, smart money is aggressively positioning for long-term category dominance. 🔍
The real narrative battle sits at the regulatory border where sports products drive 82.4% of total fee revenue. 💡 While upcoming Supreme Court cases introduce sharp volatility, institutional liquidity keeps front-running potential downside risks through planned state-level pivots. 💬 Are you bidding on prediction market infrastructure early or waiting for regulatory clarity before entry? 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️
🏷️ #KALSHI #PredictionMarkets #Macro #Crypto #Trading
🔥 💎
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🚨 PITCHBOOK VALUES $KALSHI AT $42.1B AS INSTITUTIONAL LIQUIDITY SURGES INTO PREDICTION MARKETS! 💥
PitchBook just released a comprehensive valuation model putting $KALSHI between $22.8B and $42.1B, driven by projected 2030 revenues of $6.4B. Institutional integration with major retail platforms and liquidity providers confirms smart money is aggressively pricing in market dominance. 📊
However, structural friction remains. 🔍 With sports products generating up to 82.4% of fee revenue, upcoming Supreme Court legal challenges represent a critical pivot point for their baseline expansion trajectory. ⚡
If high-margin sports volume faces regulatory restriction, can non-sports prediction verticals sustain these institutional valuation targets? 🤔
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️
🏷️ #KALSHI #PredictionMarket #Institutional #Fintech #Crypto
🦈 ⚖️
🚨 PITCHBOOK VALUES $KALSHI AT $42.1B AS INSTITUTIONAL LIQUIDITY SURGES INTO PREDICTION MARKETS! 💥
PitchBook just released a comprehensive valuation model putting $KALSHI between $22.8B and $42.1B, driven by projected 2030 revenues of $6.4B. Institutional integration with major retail platforms and liquidity providers confirms smart money is aggressively pricing in market dominance. 📊
However, structural friction remains. 🔍 With sports products generating up to 82.4% of fee revenue, upcoming Supreme Court legal challenges represent a critical pivot point for their baseline expansion trajectory. ⚡
If high-margin sports volume faces regulatory restriction, can non-sports prediction verticals sustain these institutional valuation targets? 🤔
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️
🏷️ #KALSHI #PredictionMarket #Institutional #Fintech #Crypto
🦈 ⚖️
PitchBook just released a comprehensive valuation model putting $KALSHI between $22.8B and $42.1B, driven by projected 2030 revenues of $6.4B. Institutional integration with major retail platforms and liquidity providers confirms smart money is aggressively pricing in market dominance. 📊
However, structural friction remains. 🔍 With sports products generating up to 82.4% of fee revenue, upcoming Supreme Court legal challenges represent a critical pivot point for their baseline expansion trajectory. ⚡
If high-margin sports volume faces regulatory restriction, can non-sports prediction verticals sustain these institutional valuation targets? 🤔
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️
🏷️ #KALSHI #PredictionMarket #Institutional #Fintech #Crypto
🦈 ⚖️
5
Kalshi fights wash trading claims
Kalshi denies wash trading allegations involving $5 billion in Ether perpetual trades, attributing the high volume to liquidity incentive programs rather than market manipulation.
#Kalshi #EtherPerpetuals
Kalshi fights wash trading claims
Kalshi denies wash trading allegations involving $5 billion in Ether perpetual trades, attributing the high volume to liquidity incentive programs rather than market manipulation.
#Kalshi #EtherPerpetuals
Kalshi denies wash trading allegations involving $5 billion in Ether perpetual trades, attributing the high volume to liquidity incentive programs rather than market manipulation.
#Kalshi #EtherPerpetuals
73
·
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🚨 Kalshi监管争议升级！
参议院突然要“公开听证”，预测市场要变天了？🔥
群组：[点击进入玖玖的粉丝群](https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/YXXQJrPb)
美国预测市场的监管争议，正在从行业层面直接进入国会。
9月23日，参议院银行委员会的民主党成员致信主席蒂姆·斯科特，要求针对预测市场举行公开听证会。信件由委员会全部11名民主党成员签署，他们希望国会公开讨论预测市场对消费者、金融体系以及投资者保护带来的影响。
而时间点很巧——就在同一天，斯科特和参议院银行委员会共和党成员与Kalshi CEO塔里克·曼苏尔进行了会面。
斯科特表示，此次讨论主要围绕证券相关产品、投资者如何使用这些市场、散户保护以及未来需要解决的监管问题展开。
📌 真正值得关注的，其实不是“谁和谁开会”，而是一个更大的问题：
预测市场到底应该由谁来管？
目前，CFTC在预测市场监管中扮演重要角色，但部分州政府认为，体育赛事等事件合约仍涉及州层面的监管权限，因此联邦与州之间已经出现多次法律和监管冲突。
更复杂的是，如果预测合约开始与上市公司的盈利、业绩等指标直接挂钩，那么它就可能触及证券监管领域。
这也是为什么参议院银行委员会开始介入。民主党议员认为，部分与企业业绩相关的预测产品可能涉及证券型产品，并提出应该进一步研究SEC是否拥有监管权限。与此同时，Cboe也已经向SEC申请批准与公司盈利结果挂钩的“全有或全无期权”
点击头像加入玖玖聊天群获取每日策略🚀
#Kalshi #预测市场
🚨 Kalshi监管争议升级！
参议院突然要“公开听证”，预测市场要变天了？🔥
群组：点击进入玖玖的粉丝群
美国预测市场的监管争议，正在从行业层面直接进入国会。
9月23日，参议院银行委员会的民主党成员致信主席蒂姆·斯科特，要求针对预测市场举行公开听证会。信件由委员会全部11名民主党成员签署，他们希望国会公开讨论预测市场对消费者、金融体系以及投资者保护带来的影响。
而时间点很巧——就在同一天，斯科特和参议院银行委员会共和党成员与Kalshi CEO塔里克·曼苏尔进行了会面。
斯科特表示，此次讨论主要围绕证券相关产品、投资者如何使用这些市场、散户保护以及未来需要解决的监管问题展开。
📌 真正值得关注的，其实不是“谁和谁开会”，而是一个更大的问题：
预测市场到底应该由谁来管？
目前，CFTC在预测市场监管中扮演重要角色，但部分州政府认为，体育赛事等事件合约仍涉及州层面的监管权限，因此联邦与州之间已经出现多次法律和监管冲突。
更复杂的是，如果预测合约开始与上市公司的盈利、业绩等指标直接挂钩，那么它就可能触及证券监管领域。
这也是为什么参议院银行委员会开始介入。民主党议员认为，部分与企业业绩相关的预测产品可能涉及证券型产品，并提出应该进一步研究SEC是否拥有监管权限。与此同时，Cboe也已经向SEC申请批准与公司盈利结果挂钩的“全有或全无期权”
点击头像加入玖玖聊天群获取每日策略🚀
#Kalshi #预测市场
参议院突然要“公开听证”，预测市场要变天了？🔥
群组：点击进入玖玖的粉丝群
美国预测市场的监管争议，正在从行业层面直接进入国会。
9月23日，参议院银行委员会的民主党成员致信主席蒂姆·斯科特，要求针对预测市场举行公开听证会。信件由委员会全部11名民主党成员签署，他们希望国会公开讨论预测市场对消费者、金融体系以及投资者保护带来的影响。
而时间点很巧——就在同一天，斯科特和参议院银行委员会共和党成员与Kalshi CEO塔里克·曼苏尔进行了会面。
斯科特表示，此次讨论主要围绕证券相关产品、投资者如何使用这些市场、散户保护以及未来需要解决的监管问题展开。
📌 真正值得关注的，其实不是“谁和谁开会”，而是一个更大的问题：
预测市场到底应该由谁来管？
目前，CFTC在预测市场监管中扮演重要角色，但部分州政府认为，体育赛事等事件合约仍涉及州层面的监管权限，因此联邦与州之间已经出现多次法律和监管冲突。
更复杂的是，如果预测合约开始与上市公司的盈利、业绩等指标直接挂钩，那么它就可能触及证券监管领域。
这也是为什么参议院银行委员会开始介入。民主党议员认为，部分与企业业绩相关的预测产品可能涉及证券型产品，并提出应该进一步研究SEC是否拥有监管权限。与此同时，Cboe也已经向SEC申请批准与公司盈利结果挂钩的“全有或全无期权”
点击头像加入玖玖聊天群获取每日策略🚀
#Kalshi #预测市场
213
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Vérifié
Kalshi’s $5B volume story is getting harder to ignore.
Beni spotted thousands of $ETH perpetual trades clustered around the same ~$5,500 size.
Then the story got bigger.
More than $5B in recent volume came from trades around that size.
Kalshi says it was driven by market-making incentives and denies wash trading.
The CFTC is reportedly examining the activity.
But this is where @polymarket becomes an interesting comparison.
Most people look at prediction markets through one number.
Volume.
Traders look deeper.
How much liquidity is actually available?
How wide are the spreads?
How many participants are behind the activity?
And most importantly, is the market producing useful price discovery?
That is why Polymarket deserves attention in this conversation.
The prediction market race is not simply about who can show the biggest volume.
It is about the quality of the market behind the number.
And that is a much harder metric to fake.
#Polymarket #kalshi #predictionmarket
Kalshi’s $5B volume story is getting harder to ignore.
Beni spotted thousands of $ETH perpetual trades clustered around the same ~$5,500 size.
Then the story got bigger.
More than $5B in recent volume came from trades around that size.
Kalshi says it was driven by market-making incentives and denies wash trading.
The CFTC is reportedly examining the activity.
But this is where @Polymarket becomes an interesting comparison.
Most people look at prediction markets through one number.
Volume.
Traders look deeper.
How much liquidity is actually available?
How wide are the spreads?
How many participants are behind the activity?
And most importantly, is the market producing useful price discovery?
That is why Polymarket deserves attention in this conversation.
The prediction market race is not simply about who can show the biggest volume.
It is about the quality of the market behind the number.
And that is a much harder metric to fake.
#Polymarket #kalshi #predictionmarket
Beni spotted thousands of $ETH perpetual trades clustered around the same ~$5,500 size.
Then the story got bigger.
More than $5B in recent volume came from trades around that size.
Kalshi says it was driven by market-making incentives and denies wash trading.
The CFTC is reportedly examining the activity.
But this is where @Polymarket becomes an interesting comparison.
Most people look at prediction markets through one number.
Volume.
Traders look deeper.
How much liquidity is actually available?
How wide are the spreads?
How many participants are behind the activity?
And most importantly, is the market producing useful price discovery?
That is why Polymarket deserves attention in this conversation.
The prediction market race is not simply about who can show the biggest volume.
It is about the quality of the market behind the number.
And that is a much harder metric to fake.
#Polymarket #kalshi #predictionmarket
Daisy_adamZz:
Volume alone doesnt tell
The whole story
33
7
37
5.7k
·
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Hay movimientos extraños en Kalshi que están dando de qué hablar.
La plataforma acumuló casi 5 mil millones de dólares en operaciones de $ETH.
Muchos señalaron que esto parecía wash trading, pero la empresa salió a defenderse.
Dicen que todo ese volumen es parte de sus programas de incentivos de liquidez.
Lo más curioso es que aseguran no haber tenido contacto con la CFTC por este tema.
¿Qué opinas de esta explicación?
#Kalshi #ETH #Trading
Hay movimientos extraños en Kalshi que están dando de qué hablar.
La plataforma acumuló casi 5 mil millones de dólares en operaciones de $ETH .
Muchos señalaron que esto parecía wash trading, pero la empresa salió a defenderse.
Dicen que todo ese volumen es parte de sus programas de incentivos de liquidez.
Lo más curioso es que aseguran no haber tenido contacto con la CFTC por este tema.
¿Qué opinas de esta explicación?
#Kalshi #ETH #Trading
La plataforma acumuló casi 5 mil millones de dólares en operaciones de $ETH .
Muchos señalaron que esto parecía wash trading, pero la empresa salió a defenderse.
Dicen que todo ese volumen es parte de sus programas de incentivos de liquidez.
Lo más curioso es que aseguran no haber tenido contacto con la CFTC por este tema.
¿Qué opinas de esta explicación?
#Kalshi #ETH #Trading
404
·
--
#Kalshi
预测市场平台被传监管审查，当事人当天就出面否认，这种速度本身就是读点。
《华尔街日报》报道称，美国 CFTC 正在审查 Kalshi 的交易数据，以决定是否展开执法调查。Kalshi 回应称，CFTC 尚未与其联系，公司也不认为自己正在接受正式调查，并把那些金额高度雷同的成交解释为流动性激励计划的常见形态。
对已上币安的衍生品交易者来说，这条消息的落点不在 Kalshi 本身，而在预测市场与永续合约的边界会不会被重新划线。若后续仍无官方立案文件，这轮报道更像一次压力测试而非处罚前奏。
$PUMP $NEAR $NIL
#Kalshi
预测市场平台被传监管审查，当事人当天就出面否认，这种速度本身就是读点。
《华尔街日报》报道称，美国 CFTC 正在审查 Kalshi 的交易数据，以决定是否展开执法调查。Kalshi 回应称，CFTC 尚未与其联系，公司也不认为自己正在接受正式调查，并把那些金额高度雷同的成交解释为流动性激励计划的常见形态。
对已上币安的衍生品交易者来说，这条消息的落点不在 Kalshi 本身，而在预测市场与永续合约的边界会不会被重新划线。若后续仍无官方立案文件，这轮报道更像一次压力测试而非处罚前奏。
$PUMP $NEAR $NIL
预测市场平台被传监管审查，当事人当天就出面否认，这种速度本身就是读点。
《华尔街日报》报道称，美国 CFTC 正在审查 Kalshi 的交易数据，以决定是否展开执法调查。Kalshi 回应称，CFTC 尚未与其联系，公司也不认为自己正在接受正式调查，并把那些金额高度雷同的成交解释为流动性激励计划的常见形态。
对已上币安的衍生品交易者来说，这条消息的落点不在 Kalshi 本身，而在预测市场与永续合约的边界会不会被重新划线。若后续仍无官方立案文件，这轮报道更像一次压力测试而非处罚前奏。
$PUMP $NEAR $NIL
382
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🚨 LEVERAGE IS COMING TO EVENT CONTRACTS AS $KALSHI PUSHES FOR CFTC APPROVAL! ⚡
Institutional market structure is shifting beneath our feet. 💡 By requesting clearing-level leverage for long-duration event contracts, smart money is attempting to unlock massive capital efficiency instead of locking up liquidity for months.
This changes the math completely. 📊 Margin flexibility invites heavy order flow from sophisticated funds, turning speculative betting pools into genuine risk-management venues. 🌊 But higher leverage on volatile event catalysts cuts both ways when unexpected information hits the order book.
Excluding noise like sports or pop culture keeps the focus strictly on high-conviction macro bets. 💬 Will regulatory margin approval transform event contracts into serious hedging tools, or just amplify systemic volatility? 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️
🏷️ #KALSHI #PredictionMarkets #CFTC #MarketStructure #Macro
⚡ 🦈
🚨 LEVERAGE IS COMING TO EVENT CONTRACTS AS $KALSHI PUSHES FOR CFTC APPROVAL! ⚡
Institutional market structure is shifting beneath our feet. 💡 By requesting clearing-level leverage for long-duration event contracts, smart money is attempting to unlock massive capital efficiency instead of locking up liquidity for months.
This changes the math completely. 📊 Margin flexibility invites heavy order flow from sophisticated funds, turning speculative betting pools into genuine risk-management venues. 🌊 But higher leverage on volatile event catalysts cuts both ways when unexpected information hits the order book.
Excluding noise like sports or pop culture keeps the focus strictly on high-conviction macro bets. 💬 Will regulatory margin approval transform event contracts into serious hedging tools, or just amplify systemic volatility? 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️
🏷️ #KALSHI #PredictionMarkets #CFTC #MarketStructure #Macro
⚡ 🦈
Institutional market structure is shifting beneath our feet. 💡 By requesting clearing-level leverage for long-duration event contracts, smart money is attempting to unlock massive capital efficiency instead of locking up liquidity for months.
This changes the math completely. 📊 Margin flexibility invites heavy order flow from sophisticated funds, turning speculative betting pools into genuine risk-management venues. 🌊 But higher leverage on volatile event catalysts cuts both ways when unexpected information hits the order book.
Excluding noise like sports or pop culture keeps the focus strictly on high-conviction macro bets. 💬 Will regulatory margin approval transform event contracts into serious hedging tools, or just amplify systemic volatility? 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️
🏷️ #KALSHI #PredictionMarkets #CFTC #MarketStructure #Macro
⚡ 🦈
10
·
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Haussier
Kalshi Crypto Volume Under Scrutiny Over Repetitive Trades ⚠️
CoinDesk data shows repeated $5,499 trades made up 57% of sampled Ether-perpetual volume, while fixed-size btc trades dominated a large share of analyzed activity. The pattern raises questions about automated trading and reported market volume, without establishing wrongdoing.
#CryptoNews #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Kalshi #AIStocksWhatNext
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
Kalshi Crypto Volume Under Scrutiny Over Repetitive Trades ⚠️
CoinDesk data shows repeated $5,499 trades made up 57% of sampled Ether-perpetual volume, while fixed-size btc trades dominated a large share of analyzed activity. The pattern raises questions about automated trading and reported market volume, without establishing wrongdoing.
#CryptoNews #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Kalshi #AIStocksWhatNext
CoinDesk data shows repeated $5,499 trades made up 57% of sampled Ether-perpetual volume, while fixed-size btc trades dominated a large share of analyzed activity. The pattern raises questions about automated trading and reported market volume, without establishing wrongdoing.
#CryptoNews #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Kalshi #AIStocksWhatNext
46
Data shows Bitcoin and Ether perpetual volumes on Kalshi are currently dominated by unusual and repetitive trade patterns, suggesting high levels of automated or concentrated activity.
#Kalshi #PerpVolume
Data shows Bitcoin and Ether perpetual volumes on Kalshi are currently dominated by unusual and repetitive trade patterns, suggesting high levels of automated or concentrated activity.
#Kalshi #PerpVolume
#Kalshi #PerpVolume
18
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