#cpiwatch TODAY - September CPI Could Shake Everything 🛢️💥*
*BREAKING:* US September CPI releases *TODAY at 8:30 AM ET*. Markets are on edge.
Consensus is HOT:
- *Headline CPI: 3.7% YoY (vs 3.4% Aug) / 0.6% MoM*
- *Core CPI: 2.5% YoY / 0.2% MoM*
- Driver: Gasoline prices jumped ∼10% in September to $4.50/gal, highest in 4 months.
*🔥 My Take:*j
*🛢️ Oil:* The real story. Oil surge is lifting headline CPI. I'm still bullish short-term, but this is energy-driven inflation, not broad. If Middle East de-escalates, we could see a sharp reversal. Watching $92/bbl resistance.
*🏦 Fed & Treasuries:* Fed raised to 3.75%-4.00% in September. A hot headline + cool core (0.2%) gives Fed room to PAUSE on Oct 28. CME shows hike odds down to 19% for Oct, but ∼70-81% for Dec if core re-accelerates. That's why Treasuries are volatile - 10Y yield near 5.19%.
*My Strategy for TODAY:*
1. Don't trade the first 5 min spike after CPI
2. Focus on CORE MoM - if 0.2% or lower = risk-on for crypto/stocks, TLT/TMF bounce
3. If core 0.3%+ = Dollar up, $TMF down, $TBT up
4. Risk management is key
*Watching:* $BZUSDT $TMFUSDT $TBT $RWUSD #Oil #Treasuries
*Poll:* Will Core CPI come COOLER than 0.2% or HOTTER? 👇
#CPIWatch✨ #Inflation #TradingStrategy #inflations