Aadi 11

El fracaso del Senado de EE. UU. en avanzar la Ley de Claridad el martes deja a la industria cripto, en la mayor economía del mundo, sin un marco federal general y con los papeles de la Comisión de Bolsa y Valores (SEC) y la Comisión de Comercio de Futuros de Materias Primas (CFTC) envueltos en ambigüedad.
“Los verdaderos perdedores son el público estadounidense y el ecosistema tecnológico nacional”, dijo Stefan Muehlbauer, jefe de asuntos gubernamentales de la firma de seguridad blockchain CertiK. “Los ganadores son los centros cripto en el extranjero, los operadores del mercado gris y las jurisdicciones internacionales como Asia y Europa, que están expandiendo rápidamente su cuota de mercado bajo reglas claras y establecidas”, señaló.#ParadigmDisclosesZECHolding

Open-source artificial intelligence is making it easier for hackers to hide malicious code on blockchains, opening a new front in a crypto industry already grappling with rising cybercrime.

Instances of malware instructions written into on-chain transactions and smart contracts are up 440% in less than a year, averaging 11 cases per day, blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis said in a report published on Thursday. Such cases averaged two per day prior to the release in the middle of last year of powerful Chinese open-source AI models with no restrictions on generating malicious code, according to the report.
A malware attack uses malicious software planted on a computer or network to steal information, passwords or funds. In the attacks documented by the report, hackers use a blockchain to leave instructions for that software, telling it where to send information, a technique known as "blockchain dead drop". This can make an attack harder to stop because information recorded on a blockchain cannot be easily removed.
State-backed groups — including those linked to North Korea and Iran — now account for the majority of this activity, the report said.
The findings add to evidence of generative AI contributing to a boom in cyber threats, by spotting more software vulnerabilities and allowing cybercriminals to carry out more attacks. In crypto, the number of hacks rose roughly 150% to 207 in the first half of the year, according to blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs.
Blockchains are typically not involved in the initial infection of a machine, which often happens through conventional means such as supply-chain attacks or malicious downloads, Eric Jardine, head of research at Chainalysis, said in response to questions over email. The firm has not tracked how many attacks were successful, or how much money was lost.
Hiding malware on a blockchain is not new, Chainalysis said, but powerful new open-source AI models are allowing hackers to carry out attacks on a larger scale, while growing involvement by state actors is making them more sophisticated.
Worsening the threat, open-source AI models can be run independently, allowing hackers to modify them or remove safeguards against cybercrime.
"This gives malicious developers greater control over the model and more privacy," said Vitaly Kamluk, founder of cybersecurity consultancy TitanHex.
By contrast, companies such as OpenAI and Alphabet Inc.'s Google can block access to their AI services when they detect abuse.
The transparency of blockchains cuts both ways, though. Every update attackers post is permanently recorded, letting investigators map their infrastructure and connect campaigns that would otherwise look unrelated, according to Chainalysis.#USWeeklyJoblessClaimsFallTo196K #ParadigmDisclosesZECHolding

In focus today
In the US, the main event of the week will be the FOMC meeting tonight. Previously this week we revised our call now expecting a 25bp rate hike at the meeting. Given the current market pricing (90% probability of a hike), and the fact that we have long argued rate hikes are eventually on the horizon in any case, tightening now likely represents the path of least resistance. We do not think the decision is a completely done deal, and we believe there will be 2-3 dissenters in favour of a hold. We still expect the FOMC to publish its updated economic projections and 'dots', even if Warsh opts out from submitting his personal views again. In the afternoon US retail sales for August is released too.
In the UK
The August CPI inflation print will be released today. Headline inflation is expected to rise from 2.9% in July, driven by motor fuel and airfares. Food prices have followed a normal seasonal pattern over the summer, though higher energy prices pose an upside risk. Services inflation has been trending lower alongside wage growth. It stood at 3.4% in July and remains the key focus for the MPC, with the hawkish minority viewing it as too sticky to justify keeping rates on hold.
In Sweden
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) for August is published. The July outcome was strong: unemployment fell to 8.6% while labour force participation increased. Our forecast is that the labour market will continue to improve, but it is worth keeping in mind that the Labour Force Survey is volatile and that individual monthly outcomes should be interpreted with caution.
Economic and market news
What happened yesterday
In the euro area, the German ZEW index in September showed a markedly better assessment of the current situation, but expectations for future growth disappointed. The assessment of the current situation rose to -47.1 (cons: -52.1, prior: -61.1), which is the highest level in three and a half years. The rebound in German growth is especially due to the significant fiscal easing and a rise in manufacturing orders. However, expectations for future growth disappointed, as they remained at 34.7 (cons: 40.0, prior: 34.2). This likely reflects the recent tightening in financial conditions and higher energy costs. The impact of these factors will likely take some months to affect growth, given the lag lengths in German retail energy and rate pricing, which the September ZEW survey reflects well.
In the UK
payroll employment fell by 26,000 in August, compared with consensus expectations of a 5,000 decline, while revisions to June and July payrolls also pointed lower. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9% in July, in line with expectations, and average weekly earnings rose by 3.9%, also matching consensus and marking the softest reading since the three months to February. Regular earnings growth averaged 6.3% in the public sector and 2.9% in the private sector, slightly above the 2.8% expected. Overall, this is another dovish data signal for the Bank of England, and the FX market appeared to read it that way, with GBP weaker.
Equities:
Equities closed lower across regions yesterday as oil gained another 4%. Oil has now risen in ten of the past eleven sessions, advancing almost 30% over that period. Unsurprisingly, Energy was the only sector in positive territory.
The more revealing signal came from the rest of the market. Excluding Energy, this was not a conventional defensive rotation. Instead, the selling was concentrated in the consumer complex, with consumer discretionary leading the decline but consumer staples also under pressure. Investors increasingly view consumers as the main casualty of higher energy prices and are reducing exposure accordingly. Despite the broader equity market still being up more than 10% year to date, consumer discretionary is the worst performing sector and is down more than 5%. Importantly, neither consumer discretionary nor consumer staples has experienced the largest earnings downgrades. The underperformance therefore reflects investors demanding a higher risk premium in the consumer sectors rather than merely responding to weaker earnings estimates.
Oil is easing from its highs this morning, supporting Asian equities, while European and US futures are marginally higher.
FI and FX:
Broad USD remained on a strong footing yesterday and EUR/USD declined modestly, as risk sentiment continued to sour. Safe-haven CHF also rose, while cyclicals NZD, SEK and AUD underperformed. USD/JPY has retraced some of its recent decline and traded up to 155 yesterday as markets await further clues from both the Fed tonight, and Bank of Japan on Friday. The EUR swap curve twist steepened yesterday, as pressure remains on the long end with global long-end yields continuing to set new decade highs. All focus will be on the FOMC meeting later this evening.
#FedRateWatch
#ClarityActOddsHalveOnPolymarket

$XRP XRP amplía las ganancias el martes después de haber subido un 6% el día anterior.
$XLM XLM cotiza por encima de 0,195 dólares tras dispararse más de un 8% el lunes.
El fortalecimiento de los indicadores de derivados respalda nuevas ganancias para ambas criptomonedas alternativas.
Perspectivas de Ripple y Stellar: amplían las ganancias a medida que los derivados apuntalan el potencial al alza
Ripple (XRP) y Stellar (XLM) amplían sus ganancias el martes después de haber subido más de un 6% y un 8%, respectivamente, el día anterior. Además, la mejora de los indicadores de derivados respalda un sesgo alcista, señalando nuevas ganancias para ambas altcoins.

El oro sigue siendo vulnerable de cara a la reunión de la Fed
$XAU A pesar del último repunte, el oro sigue siendo vulnerable a una caída adicional en medio del aumento de las tensiones geopolíticas en el Golfo, las crecientes preocupaciones sobre la inflación impulsada por el precio del petróleo y las apuestas más firmes sobre el panorama de política de la Fed.
El lunes, el grupo militante hutíes, respaldado por Irán, lanzó un nuevo ataque contra Arabia Saudita después de que Riad culpara a combatientes respaldados por Irán en Irak por un ataque al oleoducto de este a oeste del reino. Los estados árabes del Golfo también aplazaron las conversaciones previstas con Irán,” según Reuters.

Nadie puede decir con certeza qué traerán las próximas 24 horas, pero los traders de todas las clases de activos están tratando esta ventana como decisiva.
Una rara advertencia unificada de quienes construyen la tecnología más poderosa del mundo ha cambiado la forma en que se están interpretando las próximas horas
La advertencia que nadie vio venir
El riesgo en el centro de todo proviene de la propia industria. El director ejecutivo de Anthropic publicó el sábado un ensayo de unas 3,800 palabras titulado "We Must Pace the Frontier", argumentando que la industria necesita frenar deliberadamente la rapidez con la que mejora las capacidades de los modelos.

El gigante fintech Revolut entregó a un actor malicioso datos sensibles de clientes, incluidas copias de pasaportes e historiales completos de transacciones de Bitcoin, después de caer en una solicitud fraudulenta disfrazada de una consulta legítima del gobierno.
Según una notificación a clientes difundida por el investigador de cripto ZachXBT, Revolut recibió una solicitud de información de clientes que parecía provenir de una agencia gubernamental, enviada desde una cuenta de correo no autorizada que usaba el dominio oficial de la agencia.
Como el mensaje incluía credenciales válidas de autenticación de dominio, Revolut lo cumplió creyendo que era auténtico.

El precio del oro cotiza ligeramente a la baja, alrededor de 4.330 dólares, al inicio de la semana de política monetaria de la Reserva Federal.
Se espera con mucha atención que la Reserva Federal suba las tasas de interés el miércoles.
El presidente de EE. UU., Trump, parece resignarse a tasas de interés más altas.
$XAUT El oro refleja un desempeño moderado al comienzo de la semana de política monetaria de la Reserva Federal (Fed), alrededor de 4.330 dólares. Las expectativas sobre las tasas de interés de la Fed influyeron fuertemente la semana pasada tras la publicación de los informes del Índice de Precios al Productor (PPI) y del Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) de Estados Unidos (EE. UU.) correspondientes a agosto.